10 May 2011 12:00 AM:

A proclamation from the Spanish Ministry of Public Works announced in the Property Roadshow states that the stock of unsold houses started shrinking in 2010

Unfortunately for the Ministry, the presentation seems to have had little of the desired effect.

This, at least, was the view of Barclays Capital in the aftermath of the roadshow:

“So far for April two private sector agencies have released estimates for Spanish house prices. Cotizalia recorded a 0.9% m/m drop (-4.3% y/y) and Fotocasa recorded a 0.7% m/m decline (-5.4% y/y). The third private sector agency which we monitor, Tinsa, has yet to release April data. Our aggregate of the three agencies’ indices is therefore currently -0.8% m/m in April, down 4.7% y/y. This is the sharpest pace of annual decrease since March 2010. As well, the monthly averages signal a slightly stronger deceleration in prices … In our view, the recent apparent intensification of house price declines can be attributable to three factors. First is the end of a tax allowance for mortgage interest payments for those on higher incomes which happened at the end of last year (and which had therefore brought forward some demand). Second is the rise in 12m Euribor rates, which is by far the dominant mortgage interest reference rate in Spain. 12m Euribor continues to rise and today was at 2.157%, up from 1.2% during March 2010.  Third is the ongoing prevalence of excess supply. In a roadshow today in London the deputy housing ministry said that the excess inventory of unsold homes was 700k (though various private sector estimates have previously put the number at more like 1mn. The RR de Acuna consultancy last November estimated that the excess inventory was 1.5mn. This includes 200k owned by financial institutions, 683k new homes, and an estimated 620-720k that are existing, suggesting that with a pace of transactions of 240-280k per year it will take six years to clear).“

They don’t seem reassured at all, really.

 

Thread: Barclay Capital's view of the Property Roadshow of the Spanish Ministry of Public Works

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