08 Apr 2012 3:22 AM:
The Euro was like an ill concieved, designed and poorly implemented airplane and no one thought what to do if something went seriously wrong with it if we hit severe turbulance in the worlds economy. There are also too many economy passengers who are being subsidised by the few first class passengers. So what is happeneing now is a fly-by-the-seat-of your-pants attempt to hold it all together. Seat belts have been fastened, oxygen masks have been deployed and some passengers are wearing life jackets, but we are still going down. A mayday call has been sent out but few are in a position to help. The navigation system is out and communications are intermittent and confused. The pilot and co-pilot are argueing and fighting over the controls. Doomed to fail ultimately as bits fall off, the only question is what will the wreakage look like, how many casualties and what can be salvaged?
Greece will fall out of the Euro first and then almost any other Euro country is a next-up candidate. Spain may well leave but the consequences will be dire for other EU countries and possibly some non-EU countries who have invested in Spain or who have bought its debt.
Brtish Ex-Pats would be wise to consider all possible senarios and how these might effect them based on their personal situations.
A likely result of Spain leaving the Euro is a devaluation of the currency, be it Peseta or some other currency that replaces the Euro. This would have a high cost in terms of payments of both sovreign and personal debt in a devalued currency and in changing accounting systems for all Spains businesses. The new Peseta would have to be pegged to an agreed Euro exchange rate for several years to allow the modification to be made. Devaluation may be done in controlled stages. After which the Peseta could be allowed to float against other currencies or pegged to golds value, the UK pound or the US dollar. Allowing it to float could be disasterous as it could go into free-fall making the currency worthless. The strategy is costly, risky and not a quick fix for Spains problems.
However, if it found a reasonable stable level then this might help the return of tourists, make property more attractive to buy for foriegn buyers, improve exports and encourage investment, which in-turn might stimulate jobs growth leading to a recovery in GDP, tax revenues and deficit reduction. Imports will be more expensive so inflation could rise adding to austerity. Spain will however always owe a huge amount of money and will continue to struggle to pay its public sector workers without austerity measures and associated civil strife. Like Greece, Spains creditors may be forced to take a hair cut. Unemployment will be high for many years unfortunately.
This message was last edited by thermalsocks on 08/04/2012.
This message was last edited by thermalsocks on 08/04/2012.
Thread:
If Spain did reintroduce the peseta...
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