Night’s candles are burnt out, and jocund day stands tiptoe on the misty mountain tops.
Spanish life is not always likeable but it is compellingly loveable.
- Christopher Howse: 'A Pilgrim in Spain'*
Covid 19 in Spain and Galicia
There’s growing fear that we’ll soon have a second national lockdown, perhaps preceded by regional varieties in Madrid and Cataluña. The article below addresses the dire economic effects of this, partly the consequence of polarised, tribal politics. As I’ve asked, does the major part of responsibility for this lie with the Spanish themselves? Specifically their inability to obey distancing guidelines/rules once the draconian fines stopped.
As I said to my daughter while surveying the happy crowds in the centre of Pontevedra last week: I fear these people have no real idea of what's round the corner after the interim schemes end and a full economic hit is taken.
Living La Vida Loca in Spain and Galicia
As if it didn't have enough to worry about, it's reported that Galicia will be one of the Spanish regions worst hit by post-Brexit customs duties. Specifically on wine, agri-foodstuffs, clothes(Inditex/Zara) and cars.
At a trivial level . . . My Dutch friend continues to have classic Spanish problems getting his Corte Inglés card. Seeking to get his work history demanded by the store, he's had several calls to help desks - he's totally fluent in Spanish - in order to get a Key (Clave) to allow him to access all Spanish government sites. Followed by one abortive video call with the Tax Office and a second video call in which he wasn't asked to produce the passport he'd been unable to show during the first one. And then an abortive call to the Social Security office, when they admitted they didn't have the phone number he'd given in order to get the Clave. So couldn't progress his request. He's now awaiting a call from the Social Security folk - promised for Monday - when he'll be told what challenge he faces next.
I have, of course, asked him if a bloody store card is worth all this hassle and time-wasting but I suspect for him it's now all about not allowing the system to beat him.
It hasn’t been a good week for him, as his relatives due to visit this weekend have been prevented by the Netherlands putting Spain on its blacklist.
The union of Galician estate agents(Realtors) has asked/begged the government to address the plague of squatters by enforcing eviction within 48 hours and by imposing prison sentence. Fat chance.
Meanwhile, I have a cita at 13.20 today at the (national) police station to get my new TIE. No outcome will surprise me.
Day 12 of María's Dystopian Times
The UK
Quarantine is not lockdown by another name. It is far fiercer. Those in it may not leave home, even to shop, exercise or walk a dog. They must ask others to buy food or medicine if deliveries can’t be arranged. Nobody may visit except to give care. Only a handful of reasons justify stepping beyond the front door: medical emergencies, a family funeral, imminent danger. People must isolate for 14 days but they have no right to be paid. You would assume that a government decreeing that these serious restrictions were vital would be monitoring them with equal seriousness. You would be mistaken. The system for overseeing and enforcing quarantine is a shabby, incoherent mess, because nobody has designed it to be anything else. . . . The government has no idea whether its rules are being observed because it’s taking care not to find out. . This is nuts. A theoretically draconian policy which prevents people from working or going to school while failing to stop viral spread is collective insanity.
English/Spanish
Three more refranes:-
- You can't escape your destiny: El que nace para mulo del Cielo el cae el arnés.
- You can't have your cake and eat it too: No se puede tener todo.
- You can't make an omelette without breaking eggs: Nada que valga la pena se logra sin crear conflictos.
Finally . . .
My daughter and grandson return to Madrid today. We have begun to draw up contingency plans agains the probability of another lockdown, in the hope that one of them proves effective in the event.
THE ARTICLE
Second lockdown could destroy Spain's devastated economy: Graham Keeley. Telegraph
Spain’s tourism-reliant economy has taken a beating from ongoing global travel quarantines, but coronavirus cases are continuing to surge
Quarantines imposed by Britain and other countries have decimated Spain's tourism sector as cases in the country rise.
Not since Spain plunged into a bloody Civil War more than eight decades ago has the country’s economy suffered so badly as during the Covid pandemic. When General Francisco Franco’s Nationalists staged an uprising against the Republican government, the country’s economy went into deep decline between 1936-1939. The same happened when Spain imposed one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe in March in order to try to contain the epidemic.
After emerging from lockdown in June, a new surge from the virus saw the total number of coronavirus cases rise to 359,082, the highest number in Europe, according to the data released on Aug 17. More than 28,600 Spaniards have lost their lives to Covid-19, according to health ministry data, although the real death toll is closer to 45,000, according to data from regional authorities and research bodies.
The dire cost of Spain's economic hibernation was laid bare when government data revealed the economy shrank by 18.5% between April and June. Official records only go back to 1970, but estimates by economic historian Leandro Prados de la Escosura show that in 1936 – the start of the Spanish civil war – the economy sank at an annual rate of 26.8%, or 6.7% each quarter.
Spain’s tourism dependent economy has been devastated
Tourism-dependent Spain, which depends on holidaymakers for 12% of its GDP and 13% of jobs, according to official data, has seen this crucial sector decimated by the imposition of quarantines by Britain and other countries. Last year, 18m Britons travelled to Spain, making up one in five of all tourists to the country.
Over the first six months of this year, 10.8m foreign tourists visited Spain, nearly three-quarters fewer than in the same period of 2019, according to the country’s National Statistics Institute (INE). Spain haemorrhaged businesses and jobs when it would normally be gaining them during the summer, tourism-reliant, months. Between February and June, 51,000 businesses closed, compared to the same period in 2019, when 24,000 opened, according to INE. More than one million people lost their jobs in the second quarter of the year, the worst fall in employed workers on record, pushing unemployment to 15.3%.
A second lockdown may be a death knell for Spain’s economy
Alfredo Marquez, an automotive consultant from Barcelona, was made redundant in July: “I have been looking for a job but it is really hard. This could not have happened at a worse time,” he said.
The IMF predicts Spanish GDP will decrease by 12.8% this year, meaning it will be worse hit than Britain where the economic slowdown is expected to be 10.2%. The reason is twofold. Spain adopted a more severe lockdown earlier than Britain and it is more dependent on tourism.
With coronavirus cases soaring the fear is Spain may have to bring in a second lockdown to flatten the curve once more. However, Antonio Garamendi, president of the Spanish Confederation of Business Organisations, says this will be the death knell for the economy. “We are very worried that we will have to go through what we had to go through in March and April. People come first but the economy will suffer brutally,” he says.
Spain’s government has spent €8.1bn (£7.2bn) on a furlough scheme that has saved many workers from hardship. However temporary workers, like those in tourism, and small companies have not been eligible for the programme and have instead had to rely on loan schemes. Spain's labour minister Yolanda Díaz has signalled the furlough scheme will be extended to the end of the year but for businesses this could spell headaches ahead. Kate Preston, a British businesswoman who runs eight restaurants in Barcelona, said: “The furlough scheme has saved many companies from going bankrupt immediately. “[However] when it ends, I forecast carnage because companies are obliged to keep all staff in their previous positions for a minimum of six months or return all furlough money for all workers. If your takings are down 70-80pc, that is clearly impossible.”
Political in-fighting may slow Spain’s recovery even further
Spain is expected to receive €140bn in European Union funds to help shore up its economy and €61bn could be in grants rather than loans. The fragile left-wing coalition government has drawn up a €150bn public spending plan for the next 2 years and wants to avoid making cuts as happened during the 2008 financial crisis. However, Spain’s polarised political system means agreeing how best to spend the cash has proved hard.
Pedro Sanchez, the Socialist prime minister, only came into power in January after striking a deal to form a coalition with Pablo Iglesias, leader of the far-left Unidas Podemos (United We Can) party and the government must pass the budget for 2021 by October.
Garnering enough support from a myriad of small parties is not straightforward. Pablo Casado, leader of the conservative People’s Party, does not want to make cuts either but does not want EU money spent on “ideological projects”. Faced with ballooning public debt that is pushing 110% of GDP, the expectation is that government will have to raise taxes.
Javier Díaz, an economist for IESE Business School, says: “More than the economics it will be politics which decide our ability to recover. We have a divided political scene and the government must pass the budget by October or we will have to have another election.”
* A terrible book, by the way. Don't be tempted to buy it, unless you're a very religious Protestant.