Is the Spanish economy in severe trouble ?

From the Daily Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/15/ccspain115.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox

Is the Spanish economy and are the Spanish banks in this much trouble. Having recently returned from a holiday break on the CDS it would appear so.
The restaurants which last year were packed are no where near as busy. Many shops in the towns have gone out of business and all one sees is resale  signs on the developments.
Property prices in the agents windows seem to be at least 25% to 30% below there original selling price.

What do others think. 
Is Spain and its banks heading for a major crash ?

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

Everybody is well aware of the state most of the world is in now. I am sure Spain is in no worse a state than many other countries.With respect Michael I have seen enough threads covering this subject now. We are all doomed !!

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.27944,filter.social/pub_detail.asp

Oh yes, we are in a serious financial crisis.... but is that necessarily a bad thing) ( Excuse me as this keyboard does not make the question marks) I am typing a paranthesis sign instead.

Financial crisis must not be time for fear, anxiety and depression.
Financial crisis must be time for sobriety and austerity: much more elegant, modern, chic and dignifying words.
Financial crisis is a time to go out of oppressive shopping malls and run unto nature: mountains, beaches, landscape.. whatever is within the reach of our arms and possibilities.
Financial crisis is time for thinking and create new ways of life. Time for creativity and art. Time for recreation. Time for oportunitys. Time for re.birthings and re.considerations.
Time for family and friends around a simple table game, playing old music, remembering old times...

Time for life really. Let´s use our creativity talents... we all have it. We can build happiness around withg no money at all. It is such a challenge and a building-humanhood activity.

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

Great Post Maria,
Totally agree with you.

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

 Yes I second that Gina, well done Maria sometimes we forget the simple things of life and what we have around us. Pat

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

I've often said life was so much simpler when we were younger when we didn't have so much, Maria. 

That was heartwarming, 

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

Clearly every EU country has some problems but Spain is perhaps not as bad as some and many would say in better shape on their current account than UK

Some banks may have some problems but they were not big into US and in any case Santander has just bought Alliance & Leicester....which perhaps says everything

But jusy like UK some companies will get into trouble

I am told from Spain that they expect the economy and property to start to move again circa Spring 2008.....but my view is that it will be 2010

Anyway for life style buyers 2008 may well turn out medium/long  term to be a good time to buy provided you can afford to [ so do not over stretch finances] as there are some good buys about....and they will not be there for ever!!!

And the life stylel is still good........ why wait if you can afford it!!!

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

The whole world is experiencing a downturn,obviously you can choose where to experience it,this may help...............

UK AND IRELAND RANK BOTTOM IN EUROPEAN QUALITY OF LIFE INDEX

UK (9

th) and Ireland (10th) perform worst, while Spain (1st) and France (2nd) come out on top in uSwitch.com Quality of Life Index[1]

Fuel:

while British families have highest net income after tax (£35,730 against average of £25,404), they face the highest prices in Europe for diesel (18% above average), second highest prices for unleaded petrol (6% above average) and third highest spend on gas (49% above average) and electricity (5% above average)[1]

Healthcare:

UK‟s spend on health (8.1% of GDP) falls below European average – it has 2.5 doctors per 1,000 residents compared to 3.4 in France and 3.5 in Germany[2], who spend 10.5% and 10.6% of GDP respectively[1]

Life expectancy:

Britain‟s life expectancy is the third lowest in Europe at 78.9 compared to 80.9 in France or 80.7 in Sweden[1]

Education:

just 5.5% of UK GDP is spent on education compared to 8.6% in Denmark – with more cuts predicted[1]

Retirement age:

early retirement is a luxury many can‟t afford in the UK - the country has the third highest retirement age (63), nearly five years later than Poland‟s (58)[1]

Working hours & holiday entitlement:

although UK working hours are in line with the European average (37 hours per week), British workers suffer shortest holiday entitlement - a week below average. Plus Britain receives 80% less sunshine than Spain and 17% below the European average[1]

Emigration:

41,026 Brits fled UK in 2006, the highest number in Europe, with total emigration increasing by 30% in the UK since 2001.[3]

The UK and Ireland have been ranked as the worst European countries to live in, according to the uSwitch.com Quality of Life Index released today. The findings pile on the misery faced by consumers in the wake of recent warnings by the British Chambers of Commerce of a pending recession in the UK. The news that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is running at an 11 year high of 3.3%

Inflation-busting prices for fuel and other essential goods, below average government spending on health and education, short holidays and late retirement have kept the UK firmly at the bottom of the list - below countries including Spain, France, Germany and even Poland. Spain took the top spot despite families earning an annual net income of only £16,789 - £8,500 below the average and less than half that of the UK.

Overall, Spain fares well in most categories, with low taxation and cheaper essential goods such as petrol, energy and food. The quality of life in Spain is boosted further by higher than average life expectancy, the most hours of sunshine and a generous holiday allowance. France came second in the index, boasting the second highest spend on healthcare and faring better than most when it comes to the cost of goods, taxes, hours of sunshine and the highest holiday entitlement in Europe (40 days).

The uSwitch.com study closely examined 19 factors in order to understand where the UK sits in relation to nine other major countries across Europe. Variables such as net income, taxes and the cost of essential goods (such as fuel, energy bills and food) were examined alongside lifestyle factors (hours of sunshine, holiday entitlement, working hours and life expectancy) to provide a complete picture of the quality of life experienced in each country.

[4], coupled with the recent warning that the price of goods is climbing faster than at any time in the past 22 years and outstripping the growth in most people‟s salaries, will do little to move the UK ahead in the rankings for some time.

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

Maria 

Great post . We had a lovely holiday in June -going for a reasonabe cheap meal and then a bottle of wine or sangria on the balcony playing cards and dominoes watching the full moon on the water at 1.30 at night  - bliss?  You don' talways need a  lot of money to enjoy yourself .

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

Maria - Excellent post 100% agree.  I think those of us who are getting older (speaking for self) can remember times before shopping malls and find no problem in changing our habits.  Don't know how the youngsters will cope - steep learning curve.

Georgia - Very interesting post.  Does the survery include how much the governments spend on social security benefits and how it's regulated?

Britain seems to give loads of money to all and sundry who are too lazy to get out of bed except to watch day time television on their latest plasma HD 40+ inch sets. 

There is still a misconception in many countries that you don't actually have to work hard in the UK as the government will give you money especially if you have children and therefore price rises and short holidays don't affect you. You just ask for more money and have more babies. Oh and of course you can become a 'celebrity' by appearing on documentaries, Wife Swap or Big Brother.  

Does Spain have similar scroungers? I don't think so?

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

Sonia, what you said about the youngsters coping with doing without ... We married in 1971 & managed to secure a 100% mortgage on our 3 bed semi detached house on the Leics/Notts border. I was 22, OH 23.

Our life changed unbelievably (apart from learning to live with someone as, in those days we were frowned on if we lived with our boyfriend before we married. ) More's not answering that question.

We had an old blue mini that we loved but it was cr*p & cost us more than we had. After taking on a mortgage we sold it as my mum said we needed a vacuum cleaner for the fitted carpets we'd paid £250 for, extra to the cost of the house which was £3,750 !!! (How times have changed !!)  We sold the mini for £23 which we put towards the £27 we paid for the Electrolux vacuum cleaner. 

How do I remember such things ? It's because it all meant something. Looking back it was a nightmare attempting to cope but both of us were working.

These days youngsters have their kids first then (maybe) get married but not before they've borrowed to pay for a lavish wedding they can't afford & gone on their unbelievably expensive honeymoon. They won't give up their flash cars & think us oldies need our heads examining for suggesting they should downgrade. 

I've a 27 yr old niece who married three years ago. They spent a fortune (on their cc's) for them to have their wedding at a gorgeous venue, St AUDRIES PARK , Somerset. Click the link, it IS gorgeous, they were married in the orangery. They had no deposit for a home & rented a grotty one bedroomed flat in a most undesirable area of town. 

They have just split up as life wasn't the easy ride they envisaged. (They thankfully haven't children).

Sorry I digressed.




This message was last edited by morerosado on 7/18/2008.

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

Loved your post, Maria - brought a little ray of sunshine where mostly it's all doom and gloom.

Spent a couple of hours on the blower this morning sorting out some (minor) problems, then vegged out by the pool for the rest of the day. Dined on the terrace on some leftovers in the fridge thrown together. Feeling pretty chilled out. Didn't go out, didn't spend a cent (excluding phone bills and community charge pro rata!) Crisis? What crisis?!

Last week, the other half's niece and her hubby visited. They married 4 years ago (now 32); lavish wedding, no expense spared - we bought her dress as our gift - £2000  OK, it was bleedin' gorgeous, and the photos won all sorts of awards (copyright retained by photographer, of course). They're doing well, and don't seem too concerned about the current economic climate - but when we got to chatting about running costs for cars, Spain v UK, and he mentioned that the repayments on his Porsche are £600 a MONTH, I'm afraid I choked on my tinto de verano!

My first car was a '68 Triumph Herald, bought for £50 with 3 months MoT - sold 3 months later for £60, no MoT! Boy, was I chuffed!!

Sorry - way off topic

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

Sorry - way off topic

Yeah but better than all the doom & gloom Rob.

Glad you enjoyed your day.

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

Back to topic and reality

Spain's finance minister has finally admitted  that his country faces the worst economic crisis in its history as the full effects of the property crash take hold.

"This crisis is the most complex we have ever lived through given the plethora of factors on the table at the same time," 

Goldman Sachs has issued "sell" recommendations on a clutch of Spanish banks, including Bankinter, Banco Popular and Banco Sabadell, warning that the sharp turn in the credit cycle could prove worse than the recession in the early 1990s

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

Bit like the UK..not hit the bottom of the cycle yet

Europe tends in the past to be about 18 months behind the US and today there are signs from the big US banks that they ' may be near the botton'
So for us in EU it does look like 2010 before everything starts to move again

But life goes on and the economies tick over and life style decisions have to be made at a our own time otherwise one can miss opportunities, and waste years of enjoyment waiting

The market in property reflects these times and whilst many owners in EU will just sit tight in their existing homes, others will need to move for various reasons and this gives opportunities for those able to , and wanting to , make those life style changes now  

Same applies to new build, some builders just close up shop and sit it out whilst others have to move products, again giving opportunities for good buys

Perhaps it is better to buy when everything is flat than when it is hectic with prices changing all the time

Dealers and investors can look after themselves but for life style buyers. it is not all doom and gloom.....just make sure that you get what you want at the right price for your pocket

 

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

Personally I would go with resale property, you need nerves of steel and other parts of the anatomy to match before getting involved in off plan IMO.
Nice to see that  mortgage rates in the UK have improved a bit this week and that fuel has now come down a little. 
Remember the old adage," the pessimist may be more often right but the optimist lives a happier life."Being optimistic is not burying your head in the sand , just keeping an open mind.

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

Very gloomy outlook for Spain now confirmed by their Government ministers

See Telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/05/ccspain105.xml

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

We should keep reposting(?) Maria's post to remind us of true values. We seem to rush everything at home but when in Spain we seem to relax more, take our time over the smallest task & frequently ask ourselves where the day has gone. The warm weather certainly helps to put thoughts of a recession behind us. The problems are world wide so maybe we should try to stay positive & enjoy the positive aspects of our lives whether in the UK or in Spain. Stay happy everyone Eileen

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

I came to Spain in 1995 when there was still that supposed recession. With a dream for a better life for myself and my kids and certainly better weather - anything else was a bonus. 

At the time I took on several jobs whilst building up a business and always had too much work.

I look at nowadays and whilst many cant seem to find work, I am busier than ever! 

There is more work around than when I first came here, and its better paid, but only if you are prepared to work and not swan around expecting it to fall into your lap!

The odd sale is still happening, to lifestyle buyers who fall in love with the property then drive a hard/fair deal, depending on your perspective.

The trick is not to keep all the eggs in one basket, and to enjoy the simple things - they are still here, what I came here for. 

The weather, the beaches, the smiling faces. People having a laugh and a joke over a coffee, going to friends houses for a bottle of wine. Taking, reading and enjoying being oneself at peace.

Dont need a top end car, fancy house or expensive jewellery to be happy and content. (but if anyones offering I wont say no............)

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know

On first look it does not make pleasant reading but most of the content is not new and we in the UK are in a poor state as well, some say worse because our banks did get caught by the USA sub prime and our own UK sub prime and 125% mortgages!!!

For some time now everyone who has anything to do with property expects it to be 2010 before we see any resemblance of a normal market and any boom in EU is circa 2018+

But what does that mean for many readers of EOS?

Dealers and flippers can look after themselves but for the rest who are 'life style owners' they can sit it out and enjoy their life in the meantime.....and this is what the majority will probably do

Of course if you have to sell, then you do have problems but if taking your money back to UK ,the current exchange rate may mitigate the reduction in price expectation you will get

But this is not just the Costas position.....not a good time to have to sell in UK!!

If you are a life style buyer now, then you are in a position of being able to look for a good buy......they are around.....but not everyone is prepared to take a low offer for reasons set out above !

Your location choice still remains the paramount one.....no use getting a good deal if it is not where you want to be!!!!
And if you wait for some of the real doom pundits to be right, then you may be waiting for a long time!!!!............... and missing out on a lot of 'life style' in the meantime   

Always best to buy in a very flat market ,so in a way any buyers in 2008 or 2009.provided that finance is prudent, are in a very nice position 

Why not print out the Morgan Stanley article, put it in your Spanish home file and look it again in say 2013......suspect that 2007/8 buys will not look too bad!!!!


This message was last edited by rowlandsbb on 8/5/2008.

 Spam post or abuse? Please let us know