Are you still interested about a second residence in Spain now that the buying hustle and bustle is much over and we are not yet recovered from the big collapse...?
Yes, it is the time to take advantage of our weak and unbalanced situation... and at the same time, we need you to recover from this big crash. So, again a win-win scheme.
The housing prices will continue to fall for at least two more years and by the end of 2011 will have a cumulative adjustment average of 22% since the crisis began in the sector, however, it will not start to excel until at least 2013, according to the yearbook of the housing market statistic company RR Acuna & Associates who has been presented today.
It estimates that in 2009 the lowering of the price of flats will reach 9.55% and will start tempering in coming years, with declines of 9.32% and 4.81% in 2010 and 2011, respectively.
The report considers that the housing sector still requires a period of between six and seven years (until 2015 or 2016) to "reactivate and begin to exert positive effects on the overall economy."
According to their study, this is the time required to rectify the currently existing "gap" between supply and demand. The firm raises to 1.7 million flats the 'stock' of unsold flats, compared with a total estimated demand of 218,428 homes this year.
Regarding flats without buyer, almost one million are in the hands of developers, adding those finished houses with no buyer(about 507,000 units) and those currently under construction (469,234 flats). The other 582,800 are used flats and some 110,000 remain owned by banks.
The firm also warns that "the problem is compounded" when analyzing the portfolio of available land to build housing that now exists, comprising some 2.40 million flats more. "This indicates that there is ground for nine years, coupled with the already existing 'stock', implies a market of housing and land for the next fifteen years," the report warns.
The study also predicts that the greatest negative impact of the economic sector in general "is coming" and will be felt mainly in the second half of 2010, for when even predicts unemployment rates of 25%.
In the same vein, predicts that 2010 and 2011 will be the main exercises in terms of "developer companies drop" given its "critical situation". " They are facing increasing difficulties for refinancing because their assets are not sold or are mortgaged, and increasingly devalued,".
Therefore, estimates that in 2013 when the sector begins to recover its size and capacity will be of about a half of what it was before the change in cycle, and that before the sector will even reach minimum representing only a quarter of what it was.
So… you foreigners… are coming to the Spanish 1.7 millions unit property street market? I would certainly look first at the Banks´portfoliios. Interest rates are low now and it is a buyer´s market....! and as always we offer sun, lifestyle, siesta and gastronomy all included!
What do you think?
Maria