Its a Loan, NOT a bailout!!??

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11 Jun 2012 5:45 PM by Thewoodbug Star rating. 32 posts Send private message

 

I am sure that Professor De Grauwe is a highly educated man and is used to advising on an international level, but the problem is that he doesn’t understand the nature of the issues surrounding the Euro-crisis. For sure he is an international fiscal expert and may have a three prong approach for the salvation of Europe but he clearly lacks the understanding of the parties involved and he leaves too many questions unanswered.
 
First, the ECB should step in to stop panic and fear from undermining the stability of the Eurozone”
It’s a bit late for this now – no matter who tells you that there is ‘no problem’ – and the facts and figures within the PIGGS give us a totally different picture. I suspect the ‘fear and panic’ bit alludes to the greedy money men who only have an eye for the main chance – not you or I Sir, or the desperate Spanish families who have lost their jobs and their homes already.
(Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland) will not be allowed to exceed a certain level – They can’t do so now with the swingeing conditions imposed by a German and French led school of minder/enforcers.
 
Second, the European Commission should tell deficit and surplus countries alike to make the necessary adjustments. Is he kidding? He would be lucky to find Spain at home most days as it seems they are fiestas, siestas or bank holidays. Does he think Spain would take the slightest notice?
 
Finally, steps towards a budgetary union are a key ingredient for moving towards a sustainable monetary union. Budgetary union is a long-term prospect. There is little prospect for achieving it quickly. I suppose we could consider this once we have stabilized and consolidated, but how can we have a budgetary union with such a fractured Europe, at the moment we need ‘doo-ers’ not long term thinkers.
 
What can be done quickly, however, is the issue of common Eurobonds. Er – isn’t that what we are doing now? Who will subscribe to and guarantee any new issue bonds all the PIGGS countries are out, so this would fall to the likes of Finland and Eastern European countries, besides Germany, France who have expressed a reluctance to tread this path and who would, in future refuse to fund without security.
 
It’s not the banks or the greedy ignorant politicians we should care about, it’s the common man and his family who make the European Union a union and yet have no say in its workings and suffer for the avarice of others.
There are far too many opinionated ‘experts’ chairing investigations, committees and enquiries for huge fees and salaries – bring in the ordinary people who know where the problems lie and how to solve them – yes, those who lead normal lives and are the victims of the stupidity and greed of the creators of this difficult time, the banks, politicians and ‘financial institutions’!
 
The (very angry) Woodbug
 
 
 




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11 Jun 2012 6:35 PM by ads Star rating. 4134 posts Send private message

Thanks for all your observations.... isn't this then a prime time for the common man, those who know where the problems lie and how to solve them, to stand up to the mark, to engage in a think tank, and peacefully educate and organise via such vehicles as AVAAZ (who ironically recently requested input from those who felt strongly about important issues worth petitioning) as a means of gaining greater regulation, transparency and accountability from those who have created these difficult time, the banks, politicians and ‘financial institutions’

Surely we should never feel so helpless that we give up on the ability to resolve these issues….. we all need the likes of the (angry) Woodbug , Xetog. Keith Rule (BG petition) and all those who have the intellectual capacity, patience AND HUMANITY to help resolve these problems.

The trouble more often is that we complain but do little to pro-actively effect change until it all gets to crisis point. We need a think tank and vehicle to encorporate the common man’s concerns and suggestions for solutions to debate, and calmly and rationally analyse, and the only ones I can see of value at the moment are AVAAZ and a UK  organisation called 38 degrees………  





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11 Jun 2012 8:27 PM by Sanchez1 Star rating. 853 posts Send private message

I can't believe Rajoy jetted off to watch the Spain - Italy game at such an important time.  The guy is fast becoming a joke in Spain.



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11 Jun 2012 8:40 PM by normansands Star rating in Kent. 1281 posts Send private message

Dear All,

have we concluded here that Spain cannot afford to pay the market 6.9% but can pay the same to Germany?????

as to imbueing experts with the common man's common sense, I rather think that is a hurdle too high but wish you luck.

Regards

Norman



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12 Jun 2012 10:24 AM by D_B_S Star rating. 178 posts Send private message

 

So the PM has up-to 100bn Euro to finance the Banking system in Spain.
 
 Mr Rajoy maybe in for a bit of a shock once he sees the fine print of the loan, for him, the important thing is getting it across to his electorate, that Spain is not being bailed out. Honour has to be seen to be maintained.
 
This is not a direct line of credit to the Spanish banking system, but a Sovereign loan which expands the national debt 20pc. The fact that all of it is going to be used to prop up the banking sector is no more than cosmetic for an underlying truth - that it is Spanish taxpayers have the liability. Spain is being forced to borrow from Europe to bailout its banks because markets won't provide the money directly to Spain or the Banks. At the interest rate of the loan (Norman its 3% not 6.9%), assuming Spain takes up the full 100bn and who knows they may need more wait for the audit reports,  Spain will have to find an extra 3bn Euro per year to meet the interest as well as find the 100bn to pay it back or find some alternative mechanism to re-finance the 100bn.
 
Since the loan takes on the position of preferred creditor, it subordinates other bondholders, thereby making it even harder to raise money from the capital markets. So how will Spain make the interest payments, higher taxes, cuts in government supplied services or growth; or a combination of all three?
 
Interesting times but since governments have no money the tax payer will end up funding the loans and government expenditure.
Still having posted this ray of sunshine I’m off to dinner.

David



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12 Jun 2012 11:47 AM by normansands Star rating in Kent. 1281 posts Send private message

Dear All,

according to the BBC this morning bondholders still want 6.5% from Spain so the market does not seem that impressed.

Is this a sign of the "common eurobond" scenario and will the market accept 3% from all in the future "save the eurozone" plan????

glad someone can afford dinner.

Regards

Norman



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N. Sands



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12 Jun 2012 1:16 PM by georgeh Star rating in condado de alhama sp.... 1462 posts Send private message

 lets not kid ourselves. the money will never be repaid. and to repay the interest they will borrow more.

where will they raise the funds. spain has 25 % plus unemployment due to its exhorbitant NI / tax rate of 300 e per month for a self employed person so all transactions are in cash with nothing going t the govt. till they work that one out theyre dead. the only thing they have got right is not pay the stupid social security payouts the idiot uk govt make.thats why all the  family men have taken their offspring home to the uk!



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12 Jun 2012 2:17 PM by summer70 Star rating in Granada. 92 posts Send private message

summer70´s avatar

Although the monthly cost of being autonomo is way too excessive for many small business owners, especially on start-up, I fail to see how this is the main reason for the 25% unemployment rate.
It is however one of the reasons why many small businesses still work in the black, so you can definitely say it is a lost source of revenue for the state.

The main reason for the 25% (plus) unemployment figures is that there are no legal jobs to speak of.

You could put some of this down to employment laws which make it harder for small businesses to employ workers legally (although these have recently been changed), but the overriding factor is the failure of the construction industry and the knock on effect of this on all related businesses.

And as to the loan, as days go by, it is even more apparent that this is a cosmetic measure which is going to find its way very quickly back at the feet of the ordinary, tax and insurance paying Spaniard (and of anyone who pays for anything in Spain).

I was pleased to see Spain taken slightly away from centre stage at least for a while, as centre stage in this position is no place to be for any country wishing to survive in the world economy.

I was also hoping that this may delay the unrest and repercussions which usually follow the declaration of total state bankruptcy and harsh measures which accompany a bailout. But have no rose tinted glasses on to see a bright future from this.



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12 Jun 2012 2:17 PM by Sanchez1 Star rating. 853 posts Send private message

the only thing they have got right is not pay the stupid social security payouts the idiot uk govt make.thats why all the  family men have taken their offspring home to the uk!

When I was briefly unemployed in Spain a few years back, I was getting 1050 euros per month in dole, which is ludicrous really.  Still, I didn't complain at the time.  So you see, Spain can be just as stupid as the UK regardin social security/benefits.



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13 Jun 2012 3:58 PM by Thewoodbug Star rating. 32 posts Send private message

 

If the 100bn euro bank bailout didn’t come from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and it didn’t come from the ECB (European Central Bank)……….. It could only have come from the ESM (European Stability Mechanism) and the EFSF (European Financial Stability Facility) We are told that so far only three countries have signed up to the ESM agreement so far, Spain being one of them.
 
Spain is responsible for underwriting 12% of any loans, so if it has got this level of asset to pledge, why does it need a bail-out and why has Spain has signed an agreement to lend itself the money?………. Is it me?
 
The (very confused) Woodbug
 




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13 Jun 2012 4:32 PM by ads Star rating. 4134 posts Send private message

Might this answer your queries Woodbug, in which case perhaps you could clarify how you interpret this for us all? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Financial_Stability_Facility

 

Looks as if the ESM has not been established yet (due 2013).





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13 Jun 2012 5:16 PM by Thewoodbug Star rating. 32 posts Send private message

 

Nope! That’s no good Ads – it’s just confused me even more. I’m sure the Wikipedia man is quite a decent cove and does his best, but look at this info below that someone sent me. It seems the old ESM is in business and has quite a few bob to throw around.
 
The European Council agreed on 17 December 2010 on the need for euro area Member States to establish a permanent stability mechanism. This European Stability Mechanism ("ESM") will assume the tasks currently fulfilled by the European Financial Stability Facility ("EFSF")On 25 March 2011, the European Council adopted Decision 2011/199/EU amending Article 136 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union with regard to a stability mechanism.
 
Perhaps if we rent a little office in Latvia or Luxembourg and pretend we are a poor  bank they might send us a bail-out as well.




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13 Jun 2012 6:36 PM by ads Star rating. 4134 posts Send private message

Here's a little late night reading

http://www.european-council.europa.eu/media/582311/05-tesm2.en12.pdf

If anyone can make head or tail of it will they please advise in layman's terms (TJ222- HELP PLEASE!!)

In terms of timings I noted the following "

It is acknowledged and agreed that the granting of financial assistance in the framework of new programmes under the ESM will be conditional, as of 1 March 2013

"
 

Page 45 onwards and the section titled Legal status, priviledges and immunities is of particular concern since it makes some reference to "enjoying immunity to every form of judicial process".

What's that all about?


This message was last edited by ads on 13/06/2012.



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13 Jun 2012 10:10 PM by EdwardBear Star rating. 1 posts Send private message

Incredibly astute post DBS, as you called it yourself "a ray of sunshine".

Except not quite your ray of sunhine was it? The majority of it being copied and pasted directly from Jeremy Warner's article in the Telegraph online. 

A little bit naughty that.

The entire article is reproduced below for anyone that's interested. (Minus the knowledgeable asides to Norman Sands.)

 

Ted

 

This latest euro fix will come apart in less than a month

Another day, another sticking plaster solution from beleaguered eurozone policymakers.

By Jeremy Warner, Associate Editor

Only this one may not even succeed in buying time – I give it less than a month before some such other piece of bad news comes along to fire the crisis anew. Like all the others, the latest fix seems to create as many problems as it solves. The euphoria in markets at Spain's rescue lasted all of a few hours; having bounded away at the opening, they ended broadly flat.

But please don't call it a bail-out. It may walk, talk and look like a bail-out, but to the Spanish premier, Mariano Rajoy, Spain's handout is completely different to the three rescues we've already seen, even though at €100bn (£81bn)– or some 10pc of Spanish GDP – it's quite a bit larger than that of Ireland and Portugal.

No doubt mindful of the fact that every political leader who has agreed on a bailout to date has been defenestrated soon afterwards, Mr Rajoy has attempted to snatch victory from the jaws of humiliation by proclaiming the €100bn of aid an unparalleled triumph. Don Quixote himself would have struggled to see such majesty in all too self evident defeat.

To Mr Rajoy, however, the Spanish aid is no more than "the opening of a line of credit for our financial system", which because Spain has been such an exemplary to others in accepting austerity without complaint, has been offered more or less unconditionally. I suspect Mr Rajoy is in for a bit of a shock once he sees the fine print, but for him, the important thing is getting it across to his electorate that Spain is not being bailed out. Honour has to be seen to be maintained.

Unfortunately, the reality is altogether different. This is not a direct line of credit to the Spanish banking system, but a sovereign loan which expands the national debt by getting on for 20pc. The fact that all of it is going to be used to prop up the banking sector is no more than cosmetic for an underlying truth - that it is Spanish taxpayers who are left with the liability. Spain is being forced to borrow from Europe to bailout its banks because markets won't provide the money directly to Spain.

In so doing, the Spanish rescue may well suffer from the same fate as the three previous sovereign rescues. Because the bailout money takes on the position of preferred creditor, it subordinates other bondholders, thereby making it even harder to raise money from the capital markets.

Also stressed to virtual breaking point, Italy, becomes liable for some 17.9pc of the cross guarantees, raising the absurd spectacle of Italy borrowing at 5pc to lend to the Spanish banking system at 3pc. European solidarity may be a noble cause, but there must be limits.

The customised nature of the Spanish rescue will also raise accusations of favouritism from those struggling with the harsh conditionality of previous rescues. Ireland, with a remarkably similar crisis to that of Spain, will feel particularly aggrieved.

Like Spain, Ireland's problem was essentially that of overexpansion of its banking sector to fund unsustainable construction, property and consumer booms. The consequent losses have overwhelmed the capacity of the sovereign to cope, transmogrifying the original banking crisis into a full blown fiscal meltdown.

Yet Ireland has been treated as a fiscal profligate, and been punished accordingly with penalty terms which Spain seems to be escaping. We should perhaps not feel too sorry for the poor downtrodden Irish. This was a mess largely of their own making, for right at the start of the crisis, the government committed the blunder of unilaterally issuing a blanket sovereign guarantee to all bank creditors in an ultimately doomed attempt to halt the flight of capital. Ireland essentially did for its entire banking system what Britain attempted, again without success, in the single instance of Northern Rock.

As fast became apparent, Ireland could not afford this guarantee, forcing the government to fall back on joint eurozone/IMF support. Ireland's unilateral state guarantee also caused mayhem in the European banking system, making other European countries particularly unreceptive to subsequent calls for concessions.

Some progress is being made towards a fully fledged federal banking system, with centralised supervision, a single deposit insurance scheme, and a single resolution regime. Potentially, such a banking union could have prevented the sort of crisis we've seen develop in Ireland and Spain.

European-wide deposit insurance might, for instance, have given depositors the reassurance needed to leave their capital where it is and quell the cross border flight of capital to apparently safer havens. Similarly, now widely accepted proposals for bailing in bank creditors – subordinated and senior unsecured debt holders – promise finally to break the link between banking and sovereign risk, allowing banks to go through a kind of Chapter 11 bankruptcy process without blowing up the entire economy. For Europe, however, implementation of these proposals is still years away, and in any case come too late to deal with the crisis in hand.

In the meantime, self defeating austerity is throwing stressed economies ever deeper into recession with little hope, outside the implausible promises of policymakers, of any near term return to growth.

It was unwise of George Osborne, the Chancellor, to blame the eurozone for Britain's economic ills. There are no excuses for the country's lamentable economic performance. But it is certainly true that the longer the eurozone crisis persists, the worse our chances of economic recovery become. The effects of the crisis are already apparent in plunging business confidence and rising bank funding costs.

The Spanish omelette of a rescue agreed at the weekend brings us no closer meaningful resolution.

 





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