Upturn in Spanish property sales?

It's a very strange thing Chris, but I meet far more Spanish folk on the Calahonda beach than I do a 15 minutes drive inland. There are the fisherman and their families for a start, who barbecue and socialise on the beach, then there are the plethora of Spanish dog walkers, who immediately become your best frend the moment that you stroke their pet. I can also watch whales, porpoises and dolphins wave hopping and cormorants fishing and later standing on rocks drying their extended wings, as I said previously, everyone to their own.  

My in laws had a place at the Sitio, and we spent a number of fanstastic family holidays there.  For me, my embryonic language skills were tested at Super Sol, where the staff spoke no English, plus restaurants and other opportunities.  As you say, there were loads of Spanish experiences to be had.  The range of facilities were great for both residents and visitors.  

It was also close to other great places, and we made the most of that.  

It's still there, despite the new super store located up  the road towards the motorway. It was a fantastic supermarket considering it's size, the deli section where they sold thinly sliced rare filet of beef and home made potatoe salad, the now closed fresh fish section was also very good. You mention the staff, some of the girls are still there. now women in their 40's, and they still don't speak any English. 

Seems to me Hephaestus has answered his own question - clever that

"Had we sold up in the UK prior to the 2008 crash and spent the total proceeds on a Spanish property we would have both sold and bought for circa £300K. If we had then decided to return to the UK in 2015 and wished to purchase a similar property to the one we sold back in 2008 it would cost us circa £325K, my question is, how much would the Spanish property have sold for?"

"We could have purchased a small 2 bed front line sea, duplex in Calahonda for €250,000 back in 2007, we could still purchase a similar property in the same place in 2015 for €250,000, this is a fact, make of it what you wish. I watch the property programs and have noted that if a property is located in a good position in a sought after area it has most likely held it's pre crash value."

All I can say is that Calahonda must be a pretty special place to have escaped the ravages of the global financial meltdown, the Spanish property bubble burst and the global recession.

The rest of Mijas fell from an average of 2688€/sqm at the peak to 1323€/sqm in December 2014 (down 51%) and now stands at 1454€/sqm (down 46%). 

I agree that location is everything but Mijas doesn't seem to have fared as well as other areas in Spain such as Barcelona, Madrid, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands. Average Calahonda prices seem to be on a par with the rest of Mijas.

I suspect that if a property in Calahonda is on the market at the same price as a similar property was in 2007 that is probably the reason it is still on the market. Maybe the owners aren't in a hurry to sell and will only sell at a price that represents value to them? They may have to be patient...

As an aside, I've looked at properties in Calahonda on Rightmove and you can get a 2 bed apartment for €95,000 and 3 bedroom semis for under €250,000. A small 2 bed apartment for €250,000 seems a bit pricey.

Duncan, please take note of 'FRONT LINE SEA', i am not referring to any other areas of Calahonda,  

Wasn't it just Tadd?. 

Hephaestus wrote: Duncan, please take note of 'FRONT LINE SEA', i am not referring to any other areas of Calahonda,  

Like this 3 bedroom beachfront apartment for €139,000?
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-47179810.html

or this 2 bedroom beachfront apartment for €175,000?
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-53361065.html

or this one for €185,000?
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-50155084.html

This one at €225,000 is getting closer to your price but appears to be on the same complex as the one selling for €175,000. Overpriced?
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-54870929.html

and this one is very close to your price at €240,000, but will it sell?
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-54711692.html

My point is that you may find properties for sale at that price, but will they sell at that price? I can find 2 bed apartments on the complex that I bought an apartment on in March such as this 2 bedroom apartment for €166,000.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/overseas-property/property-35830875.html

I paid €57,000 for an identical property with aircon already installed. I'd be more that happy to sell mine fully furnished with aircon installed, all white goods etc. for €166,000, but somehow I doubt there would be any takers ...

Duncan,

The 3 bed is in a very old block where the rooms are tiny, you will note that the lounge has been enlarged by extending into the balcony, so no outside space, the agent also uses the word 'compact' which means miniscule in their jargon. If you look a little harder you will find 3 beds in the Miraflores development for circa €350K, you may not realise that I originally quoted a duplex, where you compare it with apartments, 
 

.

Hi Hephaestus,

I won't be wasting any more time searching for your mythical two bedroom front line beach duplex in Calahonda that has magically held it's value through a world banking crisis, the subsequent Spanish property bubble implosion and the decade long global recession that followed.

It must be a very special property. Either that or it was underpriced at the peak and/or overpriced at the trough. I know where my bet lies 

To be honest, all I am interested in is where the property market is now, where the bargains are, and where property prices go from here. I believe that is what this particular thread is discussing?

All the evidence points to an average decline of 40% plus on Spanish property across the board, a bottoming of the market and a recent stabilisation/rise in property prices. That is good enough for me.

Cheers

Duncan McG

Another great answer

More evidence that the market is starting to stir:

In August 2015, the number of mortgages on residential property across Spain rose by 25.8% compared to August 2014.

In Valencia, the 2245 mortgages taken out in August not only showed an increase of 58.3% over August 2014 but the average loan capital also increased to €75265 meaning the loan capital of €168m was 59.8% higher than the same period last year.

http://alicantetoday.com/mortgage-activity-continues-to-boost-the-property-market-in-valencia_21645-a.html

This is from Business Over Tapas, by Lenox Napier and Andrew Brociner (29.10.15)

QUOTE

"Home sales are up (with 400,000 forecast by the end of 2015), but prices remain static say the estate agents – mainly because the banks are selling off their repossessed properties on the cheap. Can the estate agents compete with the banks that pay/receive no commission? No they can’t. So, once again, as some real estate agents are forced to finally throw in the towel after seven lean years, the banks are causing more problems than they solve."

Interesting johnz,

I bought a bank property through an estate agent who took their 3000€ cut from the purchase price. A lot of estate agents are handling sales of bank properties. Perhaps it is the traditional estate agents who are only dealing with property resales who are struggling?

Totally agree that the cut price bank properties are subduing the market at present. The good news for property prices is that the discounting seems to have reached a level where they are now selling, so further discounting is unlikely. Once the bank backlog of properties is sold off, prices should start to rise again. I reckon it will take a few years before we see any big movement upwards though.

I wonder is there an upturn in the Spanish buying 2nd homes in their own country, as I read this the other day which was quite a surprise  Research by the Global franchise chain of estate agents RE/MAX reveals that second home ownership is less prevalent in rich European countries than in poorer ones.

Here's the article

http://www.spanishpropertyinsight.com/2015/10/22/richest-european-countries-cool-about-second-home-ownership/?utm_source=Spanish+Property+Insight+News+Bulletin&utm_campaign=9cf90df4ca-SPI_NB_2304144_23_2014&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_5c1bbc37e8-9cf90df4ca-137954973

Or perhaps as one person who commented on the article suggested, "So the re/max survey is very misleading. Many owners of second homes in the countries mentioned INHERIT second homes from family. They DID NOT buy these second homes. That is an important difference. "

So statistics per see, need to be put into perspective and further analysed before drawing conclusions!

There were however some other comments/observations at the end of the article which shed some light on the changing pattern of property sales.

The point that has been missed is that UK buyers only account for a small percentage of sales/purchases so don’t have any great influence on the market.  The support that ex-pat buyers contributed in the past simply inflated prices to a crazy unsustainable level on the Costas. I remember in 2003 that mortgages were thwnro at ex-pat buyers and the saying was “If you have a pulse and a passport- you can get a mortgage”. Poorly built houses were chucked up and TINSA valuations were absurdly high with banks lending 120% of the inflated values. Eventually it HAD to stop.

It is a buyer’s market and will stay that way for many years to come – there were no complaints when it was a seller’s market were there? It happened in the UK when thousands were plunged into negative equity in 89/90 and they had to live with it. Property is a gamble like any other investment so stop moaning and either hold on to your house for several years or sell at market rates. Until native Spanish can afford to buy, house prices will remain the same or even drop again and with the state of the Spanish and EU economy, unemployment and low wages in Spain it may be some time.

Only the deluded or those connected with the property market will believe that house prices and sales are increasing generally throughout Spain

Woodbug, good post up to this point

Only the deluded or those connected with the property market will believe that house prices and sales are increasing generally throughout Spain​

As I'm not connected with the Spanish property market I guess I must be deluded. Based on official statistics published over the last year I believe that prices and sales are increasing across Spain. Not massive increases in prices or volumes but increases nonetheless.

Rather than considering myself deluded, I consider myself contrarian. I follow the principles of investors like Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffet. Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. Not following the herd and making investment decisions based upon facts rather than emotion has served me well over the years.

I fully expect the value of my investment will double or maybe even treble over the next 10 years. I don't know whether this is the absolute bottom of the market but I am pretty sure we are near the bottom.

I may be wrong, but I am certainly not as deluded as those who paid three times as much at the peak for the same property I have just bought believing it to be a good investment at that time.

Investment?  In Spain? I think Mr. Buffet et al would find the idea of investing in Spain quite amusing. Let’s face the hard truth for once. Spain has never been transparent concerning property prices and sales figures, there are several unconnected ‘agencies’ who report the figures that are bandied about – none of which are ever the same.  Sale prices in many indexes are based on asking prices, not achieved prices and a 17% increase in sales compared to last year that were down by 3% on the year before that were down 48% from the 2006 figures, make no sense at all.

Property wire report: A breakdown of the figures shows that the 2014-2015 increase came from the resale market, up 34% over 12 months, whilst new home sales fell 42% to just over 6,000.

Global Property Guide indicated that prices were still dropping up to Q2 2015 (their last report).

We are also reliably informed that there are still thousands of homes held by banks and other institutions that have not yet been released onto the market for fear of depressing it even more. Investors should be all over Spain like a cheap suit – but they are not, simply because the woolly laws and dodgy buying procedures do not provide any security. The UK Paramount Theme Park raised $3.4bn via investors in 48 hours with not a penny coming from UK. In five years the Spanish Paramount Theme Park has raised zilch.

Two years ago Sheldon Adelson who has $26bn change in his back pocket, brought his EuroVegas to Madrid but after some limited negotiation with the government, he dropped it like a hot cake and scuttled off back to US.

In order to succeed Spain needs transparent planning laws on a national basis not a regional hotch-potch of anomalous regional rules administered by perhaps not the most honest of individuals. It needs a completely new sustainable building code and a tight control over the administrators of these matters.

In the unlikely event you do make some money on property in Spain, you will be making as much as you think, I sold a house for 140k euro,paid 8k to the agent add on the solicitors fees,3% held back 4K in my case still not had it back in nearly 3 years,and others bits & bobs. And then if a profit is made CGT what ever % that might be, so you will need to make a good profit on the property price to make any money. And also don't forget what taxes and fees you paid on the property when you bought it which will a good few thousand euros. The resort that I had my property has got at good guess we'll over 100 properties rented out. They are the clever ones, with apts at 300 to 500 euro pcm no commitments up & go when they want.  You could rent in Spain for 2 years for the same amount of money you would spend in fees on buying a property for let's say 100k. Me thinks renting is the future.

This thread deserves to be recommended reading for anyone contemplating property purchase in Spain.