Is Spain finally moving out of recession?

I posted this on the "Is Living in spain really that bad" thread, but I think it got lost in amongst all of the off topic posts on that thread.  So just reposting my thoughts on a new thread.

Over the last couple of months I have noticed a few green shoots in the Manilva area.  In Manilva pueblo there has been a bit more building work going on.  Some buildings that have previously been left half built have had work started again.  There's a couple of new grocer shops opened as well.  Down the hill in Sabinillas, I've also noticed a couple of new shops opening in previous derelict buildings.  I've also noticed a lot more lorries/trucks on the road recently.  It's hardly back to the boom times though!

I went back to the UK several times last year.  In May and July, things looked bad with shops closing down and a lot of empty shops on the high street.  Then when I went back in October, I noticed a big change.  There were a lot less empty premises and a lot of new independent shops, cafes and restaurants had set up.  It was clear that in October, the UK was out of recession.  My trip back to the UK in December reinforced this.  So maybe something similar is starting to happen with Spain maybe exiting recession in Q2?

I don't know if this is going to be a temporary recovery.  The Spanish banks have got a lot of unrealised property losses on their books and the Spanish government and the regions have a lot of debt.  An IMF/EU bailout still looks likely to me.

In my humble opinion - ABSOLUTELY NOT!

But I have heard recently estate agents are doing a bit more business which I don't understand and I don't think it's them just talking up the market.

But I think we have yet to see the worst. 

No solution to unemployment and no commercial solutions to shifting all this unsold property!

How can increasing transfer tax from 7% to 8% be an incentive?

Would you employ anyone in Spain - never!

Hi Sanchez1.  Things are not improving near us in Spain.  Yes, there is some building work that has re-started, but, as has been covered in other threads, this is mostly to do with the opportunities for cheap land and cheap labour costs.

The recession is hitting hard.  Over 13 shops have recently closed in one local town plus many restaurants and cafes.  Two local estate agents say property sales are few - but they are there.  Apparantly mostly to northen Europeans such as Norweigan and to Spanish from the big cities, knowing they are getting bargain priced holiday homes.   Spanish locals cannot afford to buy or to rent and jobs are very scarce. 

The recession in the UK is definitely not over.  Cuts in public service jobs are only just beginning.  Most local councils have had their council tax capped, so they can't raise more money locally.  This means that they do not have enough money to pay for the services they deliver.  Some of those services are protected because they councils have a legal obligation to provide them, such as schools and social services.   Other services are mainly at risk and councils have had to plan their spending cuts to take effect this year, and for the next three years.   This means job cuts - so I suspect there will be lots more unemployed in the UK soon.

Hi Sanchez,

The title of your post really gave me a gigle and i will say that this matter is not something to laugh about!

There is NO WAY that Spain is on the way out. The more i speak to people the worse it gets. Every day there are more unemployed and every day more people are loosing their homes and so on.

I really do hope it will not last much longer as it is really leaving people in a terrible situation.

Joan

 I don't think so but house sales are improving as some people with cash are taking advantage of the huge price crash,mainly in my experience Scandanavians and the Dutch, with some Brits and a few Irish.

My Bank Manager recently mentioned that things were taking a turn for the better, i wasn't totally convinced then and although i hope things are turning i think this is a tad optimistic.

I think we still have at least 18 months of hard graft before things get any easier...........................

Unfortunately it is virtually impossible for a non-resident to obtain a mortgage adn that is a serious obstacle to property sales at the moment.

Talk about closing the stable doors after the horse has bolted!

 Faro,

although things have tightened considerably, i have found that non residents mortgages are still available as long as all boxes are ticked, i use  a broker to get clients the best deal and i haven't had one refused yet.

I find it hard to believe that Spain could be starting to recover as well.  It doesn't make sense what I am seeing here in the Manilva area.  I can't really explain it.

Funny, as we also have noticed a few things!  There is a house on El Hacho in Manilva that was built to 'shell' stage some years ago (at least) and has been sat there with nothing happening for the last three years that we know of, but in the last month or so work has started on finishing it off!  Also, looking for a long term rental house, I've found that a lot of properties that were listed for rent on certain sites have now been rented!  So that's also saying something - don't quite know what, but it's definitely a sign of something afoot!!!

Of course it's moving out of recession.  They know my missus is coming.  With the amount she spends every week being transferred to the Spanish market would be enough to move any country out of recession.

I was in the bank this morning & the interest they are paying on deposits has gone up 0.75% from 6 months ago.Don't know whether it's a sign that things are improving.

I think one thing to consider is the effect that the slashing of interest rates have had.  People have seen their monthly mortgage costs tumble, so for those lucky ones with a stable job in Spain have probably never felt richer.   This may help the recovery.

A similar thing has happened in the UK as well.

The forecast is for Spain to move out of recession from a technical aspect later this year

But there is a feeling that the first signs of improvement are starting to show and in due course the property market will start to improve also

But there are different parts of the market and they are all subject to different influences

The second home market depends not only on the Spanish but also on the economies of Northern Europe including UK moving again

UK buyers have an exchange rate problem and if the £/€ goes to 1.25 then you will see an increase in demand from UK

Overall the pundits seem to take the view that 2010 will remian flat so good opportunities will remain for buyers for at least this year -an improvement  is expected in 2011

Also mortgage availability to non residents is improving all the time provided you have a good deposit and meet all the financial requirements 

Now there is some instability in the € markets just now and if the problems of Greece are not solved it may delay any recovery   

Three comments to chew over. 1. Friends of mine are local estate agents (Torrevieja). They are over the moon at the increase in sales. Five in one week! I asked how long it had been since they sold three in a week? They said, never. They started in 1998. 2. Town and Country; San Javier; Orihuela Costa. I know Paul Smith well. He had a stand at the Place in the Sun Expo - he has just returned. Very upbeat. Best for a long time: 150 leads in three days. 3. Just saw an Overseas Property Professional (OPP) report on it. Very positive; everyone delighted. It really does seem that the buyers are returning. Having said that it is clear also (mixed signals) that Spain is still in the doldrums; their own goals don't help.

I would love to see Spain start to recover from recession.

In my ignorance, is it not the case, that the three main occupations of Spain are housebuilding, tourism and SEAT cars?

Of course, the immense corruption that is rife, can only benefit the few, albeit, at the expense of many, so must be discounted.

Should not the remit be to eradicate this corruption, at all levels, which would go some way in restoring people´s faith in this beautiful country.

That surely would be conducive to a recovery process, rather than blindly increasing taxes?

When we arrived last week at our apartment in Mar Menor  2 Golf resort I expected it to be a ghost town. How wrong........ numerous people are moving in, although I am only really hearing Dutch and Nowegian being spoken at the moment. The shops are not empty and around here people are cautious but positive.

We decided to get extra works done to our place and decided to hire local.......... all payment on completion of the job and they were happy to negogiate the price.......... they could not get  here quick enough and work long days.......... I have not had this sort of service in England for a long time

I, like everybody else hope that we can ride the storm as best as we can and are hopeful for the good times to return as soon as possible. 

 Dear All,

let's hope so.

what the "sillies" seem to forget with all their nonsense about "bile, bitterness etc. etc.

is the simple truth that I would have a little more chance of recovering my fraudulently taken life savings if the market returned and all was upbeat and my intended holiday apartment was actually in demand by others.

it seems to this simple soul that though they claim all qualifications and intelligence

the "sillies" cannot see the wood for the trees in their rush to condemn.

I am with Pilgrim.

Regards

Norman

Please let's not turn this thread into another property/corruption thread.  There's enough of those threads already.  The Spanish economy is not just about property.

Of course it´s not all about property, though I have noticed that work on the apartment block near us has suddenly increased, with lots of bricks being delivered etc.  As we live inland, in a Spanish town (most expats buy in the campo not in the town centre) this indicates that more Spanish people are buying a new property.

As regards shops in town, we have noticed new shops opening and existing shops moving into bigger premises or opening another branch, so again positive signs. 

Sue

Neither did I say it was all about property?

It just so happens that housebuilding happens to be one of the main contributors to the Spanish economy.

There are allegedly many other professions that have been tainted with "it´s not what you know but who you know!"