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harry,
If it costs a builder 35,000€ to build an apartment with land,licences,materials,labour...etc etc........without a profit, then surely if we are selling resale at that price the builder wont build anymore???
can prices of anything sink much below production value....basic economics?!
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www.taylorlandandpropertygroup.co.uk
still here after all these years!
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YES - supply & demand determines market value !
"can prices of anything sink much below production value'
This message was last edited by Harry07 on 18/09/2012.
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so they could reach 1€ each then.....i bow to your obvious greater experience.
_______________________
www.taylorlandandpropertygroup.co.uk
still here after all these years!
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Market Value is clearly determined by supply & demand (& not by "PRODUCTION VALUE " !!)
No further comments from me on this.
Harry
This message was last edited by Harry07 on 18/09/2012.
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This is from today's news-letter which I edit, but not written by me :-
Prices for dwellings down a further 14.4%
In the second quarter the prices for dwellings fell further 14.4% from the same time last year. This is the 17th consecutive quarterly fall since the property bubble burst in 2007. Prices for new dwelling declined 12.8%, whilst resale ones fell 15.7.
The President of the Promoters and Constructors, Jose Manuel Galindo, says he does not know when the fall in property prices will come to an end. He referred to the unknown effects of the ‘bad bank’ as well as to the increase in VAT on sale of dwellings which will take effect from next year.
So not all of those in the real estate business agree with Georgia, that the bottom (even maybe with some properties) has been reached
This message was last edited by johnzx on 19/09/2012.
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Interesting data John !
Perhaps 25% unemployment plus 1M stock oversupply inhibits any market bottoming.
Regards,
Harry
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Harry, this is another extract from the news-letter I referred to:-
Two million “Ninis” in Spain
A recent study by OECD found that there are two million “Ninis” in Spain (young people between 15 and 29 years who are not working nor studying) that is 23.7% of the age group. In Italy the percentage is 23, in Ireland, 21.
And Harry, just to support what you said:-
There are approximately 700,000 unsold new dwellings for sale in Spain by promoters and banks. In addition to these there are some 1 million properties for sale by private owners. Several, half-hearted attempts by the Government and promoters to sell the properties on ‘road shows’ abroad, have failed.
Prices for dwellings have fallen approximately 50% in the tourist areas from the peak of 2006, and the trend continues: According to the National Office of Statistics, prices fell 12.6% in the first quarter of this year, compared with same period last year.
The sale of dwellings to foreigners in Spain has come to a virtual halt, and most experts expect the situation to continue for years to come.
This message was last edited by johnzx on 19/09/2012.
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INCISIVE data John !!
So, whats is everyones' best guess re further decrease in overall market before bottoming ???
Impossible question I know !!
Thanks,
Harry
This message was last edited by Harry07 on 19/09/2012.
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if you believe statistics here are some more.
The results of statistics on residential property transactions made before a notary, released on Friday 7th September 2012 by the Ministry of Development, show that in the second quarter of 2012, 80,235 homes were sold in Spain, which represents an increase of 15.6% over the previous quarter.
This dispels the myths that nobody is buying....
I get all my information from facts based on sales reports from my 3 offices here and 1 in the UK.
Sales are up again this year and have risen for the past 3 years.
On the market falling,rising or stagnating,i keep all sales files and i can look back over the years to see how they have performed.
In this office we are a traditional high street agent and tend to sell the same model of houses/apartments month on month.
Our biggest sellers are 3 bed townhouses in Algorfa,they were originally for sale for 148,000€,we have been taking them on and consistently selling them for the last 18 months at 69,995€
no more no less..the prices have stayed the same for 18 months,this is a fact,provable,actual....so.....are they falling or have they bottomed out????
This information is based on the actual workings of a Real estate agent in Spain.
I am not a retired agent or anything else for that matter,i dont get my info from the Daily mail or countless forums,i get up everyday and witness the reality of todays market,i am not silly enough to think that the minute i announce on here that prices are rising the door will come off its hinges.
If you want facts ask someone within the business not from someone who's actual source is "bloke down the pub said".
As for the Bank repo property....the bank will sell any property they have without any scruples,i could go through any bank site and label property illegal,without water meters,electric meters,with embargo...etc.....
I could give you several (again real) experiences of disaster purchases from banks......so personal (real) experience backs up my comments.
so any ex-coppers,taxi drivers plumbers etc etc....want to give advice because it isdeemed as impartial.....maybe next time you get a bad tooth instead of asking the dentist you could ask them on here?!
_______________________
www.taylorlandandpropertygroup.co.uk
still here after all these years!
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The results of statistics on residential property transactions made before a notary, released on Friday 7th September 2012 by the Ministry of Development, show that in the second quarter of 2012, 80,235 homes were sold in Spain, which represents an increase of 15.6% over the previous quarter.
Sorry to disagree but I understand that the figures which you rely on from the Property Registries relate to transactions registered, which you will correct me on I know, are made about a year after the actual sale.
I am really pleased that you apear to be bucking the trend as reflected by the Spanish Government.
Being rude about police, plumbers, taxi drivers, etc., .whom I assume you are not an expert on and many of whom actually buy properties, so they do have some knowledge, might be inclined to make people suspect you are trying to move the goal posts and distract us from actual government figures, as reported in the major financial news.
But I accept you are the expert here, albeit that I cannot ignore that as a Real Estate Agent you might have a vested interest in talking the market up whereas, police, plumbers, taxi drivers etc. have no interest in talking the situation up or down !.
Incidentally, I really do hope you are right as my son and I have an apartment to sell. Unfortunately in our case, the promises made 4 months agoby a substantial, established, real estate agent, with a good local reputation, seem to be proving wrong.
This message was last edited by johnzx on 19/09/2012.
This message was last edited by johnzx on 19/09/2012.
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Sorry to disagree but I understand that the figures which you rely on from the Property Registries relate to transactions registered, which you will correct me on I know, are made about a year after the actual sale.
I am really pleased that you apear to be bucking the trend as reflected by the Spanish Government.
No,these are real time figures for the quarter actually signed at notary within the time frame,not historical.
If i was perceived of being rude to other professions then i apoplogise,i was just trying to put across my point that if you want the best fish you dont ask the baker!
Here is another fact that will spoil certain theories.
I recently sold a villa for 107,000€
I had sold it to the present owners 18 months ago for 93,000€
They were always going to upscale but wanted time to settle.
so.............
1.is the market rising
2.was it just that individual property?
3.Has the market bottomed?
4.were the new buyers just silly to pay that price?
5.were they just lucky? (or unlucky)?
If anyone doubts this and wants to place a wager worth my while,i could prove this given 5 minutes to dig both files out.
_______________________
www.taylorlandandpropertygroup.co.uk
still here after all these years!
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Georgia,
One swallow does not a summer make.
(one instance of an event does not necessarily indicate a trend)
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i give up......i will leave your retired guys to put the world to rights....i will carry on living it.
Indeed....
_______________________
www.taylorlandandpropertygroup.co.uk
still here after all these years!
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I may be in the market to buy a property down the road - hence this thread. So, any further views on the market would be much appreciated.
My criteria working with any real estate agent would be identifying someone reasonably objective who does not clearly lack substance - just a general observation !!
Regards,
Harry
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i give up......i will leave your retired guys to put the world to rights....i will carry on living it.
Fair enough, Georgia, we will continuing living on the efforts which we put into our working lives and which rewarded us for the proficiency we employed, in our successful careers and allowed me to come and live in Spain when I retired at 48. Guess I was not a total fool.
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Property is selling. Three houses have changed hands on a nearby community in the last month. A property identical to mine a couple of doors away is getting plenty of viewings. It is on the market for €62.500. I paid, with fees and taxes, €110.000 for mine at 1.4 exchange rate. (Including the 'bung' the builder didn't declare). One changed hands in early 2007 for €140.000.
My friend has had his two-bedroomed flat for sale for over a year now. He had one viewing early on, and nothing since. But he now has someone coming from the UK to view it next week. He will clear the mortgage if he gets his asking price, but will have made a loss overall.
Will prices fall further? Who knows, none of us have a crystal ball. We can only make educated 'guesses'. You have been given plenty of opinions Harry07, it's time to make your own mind up.
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"You have been given plenty of opinions Harry07, it's time to make your own mind up".
Many thanks Aly. On balance, feel its prudent to hold off a bit longer primarily because A) 25% unemployment & B) 1.7M stock oversupply.
Regardless, I feel terribly sorry for anyone having to sell at this time plus all the unfortunate unemployed. Spain is an awesome country with some wonderful people & deserves better !!
Harry
This message was last edited by Harry07 on 20/09/2012.
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Fair enough, Georgia, we will continuing living on the efforts which we put into our working lives and which rewarded us for the proficiency we employed, in our successful careers and allowed me to come and live in Spain when I retired at 48. Guess I was not a total fool.
Not a fool at all john,not many jobs when the tax payer will fund your salary and allow you a pension so young....i wish i could retire at 48..a few yearsto go to 48 yet but it would have been nice..i guess i will have to slog on to 65 like most people,mind you i would only end up on here all day no doubt instead of now and again in my lunch hour.
I guess thats the estate agents loss with Harry......i guess the saying....more is lost with indecsion than wrong decision rings very true?!
_______________________
www.taylorlandandpropertygroup.co.uk
still here after all these years!
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Georgia,
In the UK, unlike Civil servants, police pay towards their pension. I believe it is :- quote “either 12.25 or 12.5 per cent of salary each month.”
The job of a police officer, as we have seen in the past couple of days, can be cut short as they are required to put themselves in danger.
I really don’t think the public would feel very safe if protected by unarmed 65 year olds. Whereas dealing the an older estate agent would not seem that risky.
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