Is Now The Time to Buy or Sell ??

i remember in the mid 2000's when this site was fun and informative now it like a meeting of the Victor Meldrew fan Club.

Didn't they used to have Derby and Joan clubs for this??

Yes, know what you mean Georgia,  when we discussed the subject of the thread and refrained from making personal comments.

"you insist on paying more than the price shown as a token of your understanding that they are suffering in a recession ! ". Actually I did. I felt the amount my Spanish gardeners were charging me bordered on exploitation of them so I upped the price I paid.

Yes, Poppyseed, I've done that too.  Years ago a neighbour recommended a Romanian man to do some garden clearance for us; the Spanish neighbour said that although the going rate at the time was 50 euros a day, he paid the Romanian 35, because he was Romanian.  At the time we had employed an English guy and paid him 50, so I said there was no way I was going to pay the Romanian less (it turned out he was a harder worker, as well - as long as he was supervised...).  We also paid a builder over the odds so that he could pay wages of 9 euros an hour, plus 3 euros on top for Social Security, so 12 euros an hour in total per worker.  It turned out the builder was a charlatan and almost definitely not paying the social security, but we at least did try to do the right thing. 

In terms of buying, I have found, as Geogia indicates. that when people spend too long thinking about their next move, they don't make a lot of moves and are left out of the game.  I know people who waited to buy in the UK in the late 90s (I think it was then) as they were convinced that prices were about to drop; instead they doubled really quickly and they then couldn't afford to buy; or maybe they were just waiting for them to halve again.  Successful people make lots of decisions and take some risks.  That's my observation.

When we've bought in Spain, we haven't set any conditions, just got on with it; when we've sold or tried to, people try and screw us over to the last centimo.  Those people don't prosper.  And the particular person I am thinking of here (a buyer) could only buy because she had inherited money; she had no business nouse and was extremely rude during and after the buying process.  We, on the other hand, have remained on very friendly terms with those whom we bought off.  It depends on your priorities in life.  It's not all about money.

(and John can you not start again about the speeding fine.  I said umpteen times that my friend's son was being fined when he was not driving the car, but you keep implying that he committed a crime.  If anyone did it was his 'friend.'  Are we now supposed to pay the price for and be responsible for what anyone does if we know them?)

Just observing that it seems to be us women who are most concerned about the ethics involved in buying and selling.  Is this a woman-thing?  .

Another point: we have found it very easy to buy in Spain but excruciatingly painful to sell, so much so that I dread receiving an offer for our casa that we have put on the market, because I know the whole rigmarole will start again. 

Eggcup, not that it matters, but I think that price thing was the late 80's, (unless it happened in the 90's as well, can't remember). I bought a flat in 1984 for £20k, and sold it in 1990 for £60k, then everything crashed.

And on paying more than the price - a couple of weeks ago I told the young couple who have opened up the latest bar on my commercial area that their prices are too cheap. I'm worried that when they do their first set of accounts they will find they are making a loss and will close. 

And only this morning I had great trouble in getting a local taxi man to take a €10 'tip' off me, as I was so grateful to him and his friend for arranging to return to me the mobile 'phone I had left in the friend's taxi.

Its a balancing act since both sellers & buyers invariably strive to achieve  market value. Above & beyond this, I am a firm believer in fair play & giving people face - it does not cost much !!

Regards,

Harry

i too am an estate agent....interesting reading comments already made

if you are a buyer....then it has to be said..its a good time to buy.....who knows if its the best time to buy...not me...but for sure..its a good time to buy...

I recently sold to a Swedish client who has been coming to this same town for 17 years...i have only been here for 6 years...so he knows better than me....

for the seller...its not a good time....but if your circumstances mean you have to sell...well then...put the property on the market but dont expect miracles...

we are only selling , best location, lowest prices and houses with little or no work needed....

that folks is about as real as i gets...

Thanks Graeme.

What location do you work in ?

Harry

Graeme. 

                          That sounds like pretty honest advice.

Good post Mate !

I agree BaaBaaing, BUY, BUY, BUY!!!!!!

trowell wrote: "it seems to me if agents are saying its the time to buy"

When do they ever say that it's NOT the time to buy ??

When prices are rising, you're told to get in quick before the prices run away from you. When they're falling, you're told to get in quick before they start rising again. At no point are you ever told (by Estate Agents) that they have reached a top and are likely to stop rising or even drop - perhaps for a decade or two - ever!     

It's worth remembering that Japan's Real Estate slump was only predicted to last for maybe 10 years at most. 20 + years later and it's still in the tank. Some of their most overpriced  properties lost 90%.

Is that what's going to happen here and the UK? I don't know - but neither does any Estate Agent.

Most of them were so out-of-touch with what really drives house prices that they had no clue that this inevitable property slump ('crash' by the time it's over) was going to happen. Even the ones who did, preferred to lie and pretend that they didn't know that it was inevitable. So, why would anyone believe these self-proclaimed  'experts' now? 

Supply and demand do have an effect on prices but the greatest driving force of higher property prices is HOW that demand is artificially fuelled. It's the amount of DEBT that people are allowed to take on. It isn't population size that drives prices higher (e.g Japan has a larger population than the UK). It isn't density of population/available land (again, Japan is far more densely populated with less free land available). It's easy credit - aka DEBT.

That's why this time is not a mere pause like the early 90's. It's going to last much, much longer because everyone is saturated in DEBT. The moronic belief by politicians and Central banks that any solution to a debt problem involves piling on even more debt is only going to prolong the recession/depression and make the consequences worse. 

Only those who aren't mired in debt can move home but they aren't anywhere near enough in numbers to cause prices of 'ordinary' housing to go up. We've seen the greatest redistribution of wealth from 'have nots' to the 'have even mores'. So, the top-end, luxury end of the property market will continue to see price rises for a while. Asset purchase is the smart move for the rich when every country is engaged in a race to the bottom to debase their currency.    

The only caveat to that (i.e. an outright property price crash) is Bernanke announced QE3 last week. He's going to try to bazooka the issue with an unlimited and open-ended program of MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) purchases to the tune of $42 Billion a month. He claims to be doing it to help employment but that's a lie. He's doing it for no other reason than to save his banking paymasters. 

beforeitsnews.com/gold-and-precious-metals/2012/09/reggie-middleton-bernanke-lied-to-the-world-about-qe3-unemployment-2450372.html

The likely outcome is (hyper?) inflation - which is exactly what he and the banks wants to achieve. If successful, overall house prices will not crash but, at best, stay where they are for another  10-20 years - but the price of everything else will increase a lot. e.g. a loaf of bread might reach 5€-10€ during that time. If that happens, in 'real terms', property prices will have crashed even though nominally, they will not have moved.      

FWIW, over the long term (i.e. hundreds of years) inflation is roughly 5%. So too, are House price and Stock market increases. However, the latter two are usually in cycles of boom and bust and only appear to be 'great investments'. If you're born at a time when you enjoy a cycle low, they are good investments, if you're not, they're not so great. e.g. anyone who invested in the Stock market in 1929 had to wait decades just to break even.

We have been fortunate in living through a time when psychopaths have been 'experimenting' with the money supply to save their own backsides. Unfortunately for the next generation, they will be the ones to pay for that good fortune and I don't think they're going to be too happy with us once they realise how our apathy and greed has cost them them dearly.   

This message was last edited by JD01 on 22/09/2012.

This message was last edited by JD01 on 22/09/2012.

Hi Harry,

Im in Murcia but really cover Los Alcazares and immediate towns.

Regards

Graeme

 The right time to buy is when you find a house you can call home. The right price to pay is the price you are comfortable.

Why the opinion of an estate agent would have any value when it comes to deciding the right time to buy utterly defeats me. Why the build cost of a property should have any bearing on the current market price also defeats me. That a "professional" estate agent should suggest  it does demonstrates why one must make up one's own mind when deciding to buy or sell and at what price.

Price is dictated by supply and demand, nothing else. If the supply is greater than the demand prices fall and when it is lower prices rise. I doubt anyone would suggest the demand for houses in Spain is greater than the supply. The factors regularly blamed for influencing the maket are bunkum. Some factors may influence some buyers to buy and some sellers to sell but the market does not depend on the euro/.sterling exchange rate or the current view of the Bundesbank or even whether Spain becomes a third-world economy.  

There will always be a market because there will always be people who need to buy somewhere to live and people who must sell for multitudinous reasons.

When people start to talk about hte market bottoming out they are discussing property speculation. The property speculators are undoubtedly a major part of Spain's current problem and need to be abhored in the same way that currency speculators and all other forms of greed need to be abhorred.

If you want what Spain has to offer and you are ready to buy now then this is the right time to buy - FOR YOU. If you need to move to the UK and no longer want what Spain delivers then it's the right time to sell - FOR YOU.

What are my qualifications to make such statements, I hear you wonder. That's easy - over six decades on this planet buying or renting houses wherever I need to live, selling and moving on whenever circumstances or whim move me. Added to that a healthy appreciation that every day is one less I have to live and life is too short to wait for the right moment. the right moment is NOW. 

Worldlywanderer

PS. I've just booked flights to The Gambia. The crooks are honest there; no big banks, a President who is always re-elected by popular vote and for you and me a cost of living which make Spain look severely overpriced and temperatures which make Andalucia feel coldd in winter.

As a woman I can often let the odd comment go, think, 'no, that's not worth answering;' of course, other times I llike to have my say.  I am observing on this site though that some men just have to flog something to death and always try to have the last word.  What does this stem from?  Insecurity?  Competitiveness?  I have read in the psychological literature that some men never move out of child mode and make the transfer into adulthood, so this may be part of the explanation.  I would welcome any psychological insights or opinions from women especially, who must have also observed this phenomenon. 

Of course, another point to make is that no-one is wholly good or wholly bad (unless they're God, Jesus, the Devil or some other holy or evil person according to the whole range of world religions).  I don't think that my attempt to help a friend in difficulty through no fault of his own is evidence that I am bad.  I can be bad and could list you some of the things that I've not been good at in life, mistakes I've made and for which I'm responsible, but I don't expect some stranger on this site to start making these judgements about me.  For all they know I could be the Virgin Mary.

Delaluzian wrote: "Price is dictated by supply and demand, nothing else."

Price can be affected by Supply and demand, Yes  -  but it's the "nothing else" that is demonstrably false. In fact, it isn't even the primary driving force that has caused the greatest price increases.  

e.g.

a). I earn £25K and I can borrow 3X earnings, I can buy a house for £75K maximum (assuming no deposit requirement).

b). If that loan facility is increased to 6X earning, I can now pay £150K maximum.

Upon visiting the house of my dreams, restriction 'a' sees me lose the house because another buyer bids £80K . However condition 'b'  now allows me to beat that £80K bid.

I might still lose the house after increasing my bid well beyond £80K. However, if it is also the house of my competitor's dreams, and they earn more than £25K, they will have a larger credit line and can beat whatever I offer.

So, regardless of whether I win or lose the bid for the house, it's price increased (possibly to over £150K).

It did so despite no increase in demand (the population did not increase, nor the two buyers' desire for the house). There was no increase in supply (The housing stock did not drop dramatically during the change from 3X to 6X in the banks' lending policy). 

There was only an increase in the amount of debt that the buyers could assume and that has a greater and faster effect on prices than any increase in demand or decrease in supply could ever have.    

When insuring property, it's the cost of rebuilding you need to consider rather than the market value.  As one example, my garden has very many dry-stone walls - these cost a fortune to replace but I doubt they added much value to the market price.

Eggcup, yes I've noticed the phenomen you write about and it gets very tiresome.

I have unscientifically decided that this site must just have an oversupply of those born under the sign of Taurus - which would make sense on a Spanish interest site, and why so many won't hear a bad word said about Spain either.