Spanish Property Market 2014 : Prices May Fall By Another 15%

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23 Mar 2014 2:49 PM by camposol Star rating in Camposol. 1406 posts Send private message

Please accept my apologies woodbug-didn't have specs on; it was harddunby so I readdress those comments to him/her

woodbug- I still think that there are no hard facts about Paramount. The fact that there are delays to starting work all add grist to the mill, but nothing I have seen in local press or news leads me to believe that it is in trouble.

Lets hope you are wrong about it, because, as you say, estate agents make a big selling point of this in their blurb.





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23 Mar 2014 3:03 PM by Poppyseed Star rating. 897 posts Send private message

A property boom is predicted in the UK following the budget, maybe this will have a knock on effect in Spain as has happened in the past.

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23 Mar 2014 3:45 PM by Woodbug Star rating. 371 posts Send private message

Hi Campo,

I too hope that I am wrong about the Paramount Park as it is in our commercial interest to see the works commence but Premursa don’t have title to the complete site yet. The planning permissions have yet to be granted and the funding is not in place. The longer a project is passed around lenders and speculators (4 years in this case) the harder it is to attract funding and that I believe will be the crucial issue with this development. I sincerely hope that I am wrong and this gets off the ground.





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23 Mar 2014 5:24 PM by eggcup Star rating. 567 posts Send private message

Poppyseed. You make a very good point. I read yesterday that it is thought the new pension rules announced - whereby you can take your pension money in cash and not have to buy an annuity - are likely to lead to more and more people buying property to let out, for an income in retirement. This, in turn, is expected to lead to an increase in UK property prices, as you say, and it is this kind of development in the UK which has had a knock-on effect in Spain in the past. We bought our property in Spain on the back of the increased property prices in the UK, by raising equity there and buying property outright in Spain. So it is very likely that this scenario will occur again. It could be very positive for people wanting to sell in Spain.



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23 Mar 2014 6:29 PM by hughjardon Star rating in Jaywick Sands. 418 posts Send private message

hughjardon´s avatar

No that wont really happen I watched the Sunday Politics programme and the average defined contribution scheme is around 30k so what property can you get for 30000 not much in Spain and a damn site less in the UK, you would have to be a right Fruitcake to put all your Pension in a Buy to let anyway one asset class high risk also the Banks wont lend to a 60 year old who will have no means to repay it other than his state pension

If youve got 300k in a Personal Pension maybe but not many have 

You will have much bigger problems if you try and use pension in this way is my prediction



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23 Mar 2014 6:46 PM by casperruby Star rating. 165 posts Send private message

What hugh has just said is a very valid point but if the figures are 30k for example pre this shake up what rubbish annuity could have you expected. This should now send a clear message to the pension industry to pull there fingers out and sort out decent annuities. Or loose the cash, whats next? Forcing the pension houses to look into what they have offered past annuity holders to see if they offered fair pensions? Me thinks a PPL situation could arise. I think if couples were to join pension pots say 100k in total and invested it with caution then the returns would far outreach the so called pension providers and they would still have the equity left upon death which has been known to be a few months after retirement when the spouse would get bugger all and the gready companies keep it. BUT! I bet the pension companies pull som big rabbits out of the hat in the next few months to improve massively there offers to keep tge cash.



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23 Mar 2014 6:51 PM by eggcup Star rating. 567 posts Send private message

I don't have any expertise on the subject of pensions and won't be getting much of one myself as I consider my buy-to-let properties my pension, but I would have thought it doesn't matter what the average pension pot size is - just that there could be a sizeable minority with a large pension pot. And in terms of property being high risk, I think everything's high risk in a way - you also take a risk in life when you do nothing.

So I could imagine quite a few people with £100,000 available when it's time to draw down their pension, on which an annuity would pay out a very small amount as income, and who could get a better return with a buy-to-let property in the UK (which helps property prices in the UK rise and has the knock-on-effect in Spain). In my part of the world there are stacks of houses for under £100,000 and you wouldn't need to worry about getting a mortgage aged 60.

Of course, the alternative is that they could just directly invest that money in Spain, where you can get a lot for £100,000. A holiday home in Spain continues to be a dream for many and if they, as someone else has mentioned, buy something older a bit away from the coast the legal status of it is not likely to be challenged (as the legality of builds is clearly an important obstacle for many and rightly so). But it does depend on whether they have this money to spare as I don't think you should invest in Spain for financial reasons as the income is not very reliable; you should rather do it if you have the means and want to spend a lot of time there yourself.



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23 Mar 2014 7:12 PM by casperruby Star rating. 165 posts Send private message

I hear what eggcup is saying but this is the danger area a pension pot is for income only buying property would be a good idea in uk if the rental return is better than other returns and you still have the equity but ist a business and should be treated as such and not your home or holiday retreat. BUT if your daft enough to buy a holiday home in spain with your pot then it no longer is an investment for monthly income unless of course you can guarantee rentals and quick liquidity if the cash pot is needed, also a big thing to consider is IHT very little if any in uk bloody stupid in spain . In short the pension pot is for life income not holiday homes as you still need an income guarantee to live



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23 Mar 2014 7:49 PM by baz1946 Star rating. 2327 posts Send private message

Wouldn't want to burst anyone's bubble about the UK property market on the increase and it helping Spain out, which it might be in London due to the money coming in from abroad but else where it's a very different story. Almost every day it's being reported house prices are on the increase, if so why are many people dropping the prices to sell, one friend has sold her house 4 times, 4 times folk backed out for one reason or the other, 1st chain broke up, 2nd got the mortgage then the bank refused, 3rd coming back from Greece, all okay then the money got refused again, 4th his chain broke, sold it again now but it's been dragging out to long to make it a  secure sale..Yet.

One Daughter owns an Estate Agency and two months ago she lost two almost completed sales due to the sellers backing out for more money, now they haven't had any lookers on both house's. Sellers are coming in and telling her what price to put the house up for, as much as £20,000 over what others have sold for, like for like, again no lookers on many of these that this happens to. Sure others are selling but nothing like it was some years back.

This take all your money out of your pension might turn out to be a catch as it's been mentioned, quietly, that when you do it will all be taxed less the present 25%, not to clear on this yet though, but when the private pension is paid weekly or monthly it could be taxed, so by letting you take a full lump amount and no tax to pay don't sound like a government thing.





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23 Mar 2014 8:31 PM by hughjardon Star rating in Jaywick Sands. 418 posts Send private message

hughjardon´s avatar

Yes you are no expert on the subject that is obvious if you withdraw 100000 from your pension you will pay tax at your marginal rate so a basic rate tax payer would pay potentially 40% tax 

ie I am 55 yrs old I have 30,000 salary I withdraw all my pension as one lump sum to buy my Buy to let 

25000 TAX FREE

75000 PAYING 40% ie 30000

So ive cleared out my pension ended up with 70000 put it in a but to let then have to pay tax on the income this cannot be deferred 

My advice see an expert Financial adviser 

What loony would loose that amount of money 

And saying everything is High Risk what a silly thing to say how can an Annuity be compared to a Spanish property when they have more than halved in value the last 10 years 

 

 

 


This message was last edited by hughjardon on 23/03/2014.

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23 Mar 2014 8:50 PM by rod Star rating in Uk and Spain. 468 posts Send private message

HUGH

What you say makes a LOT OF SENSE it just shows how politicians manipulate its own PEOPLE to gain votes and stay in POWER its great PEOPLE have more choices but with CHOICES comes responsibility. 

It has not been compulsory to buy an ANNUITY for some 18 Years now ever since the INTRODUCTION of income DRAWDOWN anyway. 

Getting ADVICE is what will be IMPORTANT and the goverment has said that EVERYONE will get FACE to FACE advice I just hope PEOPLE listen to that ADVICE.

Rod

 

 

 


This message was last edited by rod on 23/03/2014.



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24 Mar 2014 6:52 PM by eggcup Star rating. 567 posts Send private message

 

Well, here we go again. Why is it that some people on this website aren't able to write civilly, in the way that one presumes they would, if they were talking to you face to face? I quote Hugh's comments referring to what I said:

'Yes you are no expert on the subject'  

'What loony would loose that amount of money' 

'And saying everything is High Risk what a silly thing to say' 

When I've already said I'm not an expert in something I find it puerile for  someone to say 'yes you're not.'  Why use the words loony' and 'silly' as well? 

I raise this and digress from the subject, because I think it is very important to challenge this type of language on the internet. As I've pointed out before, it is these kinds of comments which turn threads into something nasty, personal and unhelpful. In future, Hugh, stick to discussing the issues without making personal insults.



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24 Mar 2014 11:05 PM by lifeinvejer Star rating in Costa de la Luz. 16 posts Send private message

Great post well said



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25 Mar 2014 12:48 PM by georgia Star rating in Algorfa (As seen on .... 1835 posts Send private message

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georgia´s avatar

just thought i would "pop in" to see if anything has changed on the site....

Its much the same to be fair!....

Have a nice day x



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25 Mar 2014 2:49 PM by sox Star rating. 81 posts Send private message

Nice to see you back Georgia

Are you at the 'Place in the sun' exhibition this year?

Hopefully you will stay a bit longer and give us some positive reports of life in Spain for those of us that stil love holidaying in Spain and learning the ins and outs of life for those expats in Spain, and who like myself one day may join you,  there does seem to be a lot of doom and gloom and negativity recently on here.

Hope sales are going well for you.





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25 Mar 2014 3:27 PM by georgia Star rating in Algorfa (As seen on .... 1835 posts Send private message

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Hi Sox,

Yes,i am off to Olympia on wednesday morning,show is Friday,Saturday and Sunday.

Things have got steadily better since i last posted...nothing fantastic but green shoots.

We now have 3 offices from the one i had last time i posted.

New build is going well again,the scandies are buying up in bulk.

Looking forward to going to London although the weather is going to be bad so i am told.

We have had an exceptional winter this year,high 20's some days.

regards.



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29 Mar 2014 8:26 AM by Feeg Star rating. 37 posts Send private message

I'm afraid this further price drop of 15% is more of a probability than a possibility, and likely even 20-25% within the next few years. Other than special locations, front line beach etc, there are simply not enough buyers nor will there be in the forseeable future-its just a numbers game-supply and demand. Of course Spain wrecked a superb opportunity when it put out that non-EU citizens would be able to obtain Permanent Residence if they boaght a property for Euros 160,000 or more, then blew the chance to offload thousands of properties by increasing the amount to Euros 500,000. For this amount EU Residency can be obtained in several other countries.





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29 Mar 2014 8:27 AM by rubencito Star rating. 11 posts Send private message

Yes, but don´t mix apples with oranges. Buyers always do. Those prices are in Costa blanca south and Murcia. In the nice part of Costa blanca, (the north), in places like Altea, Javea. Moraira, Denia... an apartment is 150.000 and a decent villa starts at 300.000 €.

 





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29 Mar 2014 8:41 AM by harddunby Star rating. 21 posts Send private message

It's a great oddity that in Germany no one used to buy, but now do. In the UK prices are now mimicking Germany 20 years ago as prices soar and people rent. France was cheaper than the UK and has had down percentages since 2008 in prices. Spain will always be attractive regardless of what the system says. The massive urban developments like Campasol in Murcia are the real white elephants without facilities, yet others are promoted by the likes of Whimpey and Taylor Woodrow. The one consistency is that agents, lawyers and Government are all taking more of a share in your assets. With the annuity release plan in the UK I am sure this will lead to retires moving in and in five years time being unable to sell or afford to live in Spain.



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29 Mar 2014 9:09 AM by midasgold Star rating in Mijas.. 93 posts Send private message

The other major problem is with the young Spanish, who would like

to join the property market but are unable with their  FORTY %  unemployment rate.

Until the government  removes its numerious restrictions on  employers

who are unable to sack non efficient staff without sky high costs they (the employers)

will remain frightened to take on any new labour. This together with the high social payments

which have to be made are  an unbearable tax on any new employment.    



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