Britain 'will be Europe's top economy by 2030'

Interesting article from the Guardian :  Any views on this?

Centre for Economic and Business Research predicts that Germany will fall behind UK – and China will overtake US by 2028.

A rising population, a low-tax regime and insulation from the worst of the eurozone's problems leave Britain on course to overtake Germany as Europe's biggest economy within the next two decades, according to a study released on Thursday.

The annual world economic league tables from the Centre for Economic and Business Research (CEBR) predicts that Germany – for decades Europe's powerhouse economy – will have a smaller economy than the UK by about 2030.

Although strong growth by emerging economies such as India, Brazil and Russia mean that the UK will slip down the global rankings over the next two decades, the CEBR said it would be the second most successful western economy after the US.

"Positive demographics with continuing immigration [and] rather less exposure to the problems of the eurozone than other European economies combine with relatively low taxes by European standards to encourage faster growth than in most western economies," the report said. "Issues for the UK include the need to further reorient its exports to the faster growing markets, an unresolved relationship with the rest of the EU and the possibility of breakup – highlighted by the referendum on Scottish independence in September 2014."

The CEBR said it used forecasts for growth, inflation and currency values to compile league tables of the size of economies measured in US dollars in 2013, 2018, 2023 and 2028. It said the predictions needed to be treated with caution, especially in light of the unpredictable fluctuations in currencies.

But the CEBR said its model showed China overtaking the US to become the world's biggest economy by 2028, by which time both will be five times as big as India, in third place.

For some years, economists have been trying to assess when China will overtake the US. The CEBR said it would take longer than some analysts have suggested due to the continuing performance of the US as the west's strongest economy and the slowing down of the Chinese economy.

India is expected to overtake Japan as the world's third biggest economy within 15 years, with Brazil fifth and Germany only just ahead of the UK in sixth by 2028. The CEBR said "Abenomics" – the anti-deflation strategy named after Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe – would lead to a weak yen for the foreseeable future which would affect the dollar value of its national output.

The CEBR said: "Theoretically Germany should continue to perform well in future years. However, on the assumption that the euro does not break up, a combination of weak European economic growth, a depreciating currency, the requirement to bail out ailing economies in the rest of the eurozone and increasingly adverse population trends mean that in this forecast Germany eventually slips down the league table.

"Indeed, Germany is forecast to lose its position as the largest western European economy to the UK around 2030 because of the UK's faster population growth and lesser dependence on the other European economies."

The study found that a break-up of the euro would improve the outlook for Germany, since it would have a "harder" currency and therefore higher GDP in dollar terms. "A deutschemark-based Germany certainly would not be overtaken by the UK for many years, if ever."

Other eurozone countries will suffer even sharper falls down the league table, the CEBR said. France, currently fifth, will drop to 13th by 2028, while Italy, eighth, will be the world's 15th biggest economy in 15 years' time.

The UK, currently sixth in the world league table, will move up a place by 2018, overtaking France. But by 2023 it will have dropped to seventh, having been displaced by India and Brazil.

Link to article from the Guardian

Pah, neither the chancellor of the exchequer nor the Pope know what's going to happen tomorrow, let alone 2030.

I'd say ignore it.

The article seems to assume that economic growth is driven by low taxation and currency policy alone. What Germany does a lot better than Britain is educate and train young people for the jobs in which they are actually needed and plan long-termist. Germany also understands that manufacturing has to be the backbone of any succesful economy. This is why German companies are so successful, and that despite high taxes, companies actually want to manufacture in Germany. The reason that China is growing so fast is because it is trying to emulate this model. Until Britain begins to realise that it has some catching up to do rather than soley chasing fiscal objectives, this is not going to change.

Would these be the same financial experts who said in 2009 that the euro would collapse in 5 years? Oh, yes, that's five years ago now. Or the ones who said house prices in UK were 17% overvalued and would drop by that much over the next few years? Or maybe they were the experts who said at least 2, and possibly 3, of the Mediterranean EU members would pull out of the euro and revert back to national currencies? 

No? Then they must be the financial experts who said the pound was undervalued and would rise to around €1.40 or $1.80 by 2013 and interest rates would rise to about 5% after 2 years of low rates. 

I think I'll take every year as it comes.  Much better for your health, and wallet, it you don't read financial experts forecasts.

Ha ha - that made me laugh!!!   Well done mariedav!!   We had one of those experts on here who pontificated endlessly - Greece will leave the EU - pigs might fly - that kind of thing.  And you know, it wasn't that he got everything wrong that made him stop pontificating, it was the fact that someone challenged the existence of his yacht.......................

Probably changed his name and keeps a lower profile on this forum, or pontificates elswhere!!!! 

As I live in Spain I have little interest in whether UK is, has or will recover, but I did  see they have hit their inflation target of 2%,   the best since Nov 2009.  So I guess they must be doing something right.

Theer are no experts only people who sell themselves as experts. Since I were a lad the economy has gone great for 5 yeasr then we have a recession generally for 5 yeasr and the economy then goes great for 5 years?. The U.K, particularly manufacturing, has survived, despite our anti British politicians who keep trying to kill it.

We work harder in the UK than the Germans but our propaganda system is not as good. Have you ever been to Germany when they have a deep frost? Chaos, everything stops while evryone changes the wheels on their car. I have worked for several German companies. Peopel work their contrcated hours and when 5 o'clock comes they simply drop their tolls or pens and walk off. None of this I just finsih what I am doing. One organsiation stated that the UK oerations performance was poor compared to thatof the Germans. When we compared like for like that of tehnUK was far better. We are not allowed time off for football practice, for interveiws with other companies.

One MAJOT thing the Gremans do is not implement this EU legislation as requierd by Dave, Tony and ED. They examine how it will affect German business.

I kow two UK organsiations, 1 works on the Rail network and one on the highways (you will have seen their products) both have offices in France and Germany and both have been refused work on Germanies and France's infrstructure as they we Bristish. WE have given away everything that we rely on to foreign comapniues sucvh that we no longer have control of energy, water, waste removal and most of our road network and call me Dave wwill give away our hospitals if we give him a chance.

We need desperately to change our politicians all, of them. Liberals have already gone, jsut got to get rid of the Reds and Blues

  The U.K, particularly manufacturing, has survived, despite our anti British politicians who keep trying to kill it.

The UK has lost two-thirds of the manufacturing sector in the past 30 years, about 50 percent of what's left is foreign owned, if we didn't buy most of what we need from China and elsewhere in the world we wouldn't have anything.

If you opened any business these days and tried to stock it with "Made in England" goods you would have limited stock and empty shelves in your business's.

What you saw in Germany is of the minority, not the majority, they still rank as one of the hardest workers ever, but even they have had to bend to China now, as is most of the world.