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Dear All,
what now????
30 billion should last a month or so?
Norman
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N. Sands
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The crisis's in Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy (with Ireland having succombed years before) IS NOT good news to any European Country, and even the UK, but as unser liebe Angela demonstrated, no-one in the EU really wants to risk the inevitable domino effect of any of the countries listed, failing and exiting Stage Left..
Angie Baby started off with the macho talk, but the repercussions of any of the "biggies" opting out were too horrendous to contemplate - hence the somewhat humiliating cave-in.
But in the end, I reckon that it will be "people power" who dictates what eventually happens - politicians are fire-proof until there's an election in the offing (as demonstrated in France) and then the people exercise ballot box decisions. Just how much WILL the average Herman stand for? Without the constant need to be bailing the sick countries out, Germany would again enjoy a superb standard of living, and they must yearn for this to re-happen..
France (at least the voters) has demonstrated its "French first" attitude: how long before Germany gets more "charity begins at home" mentality, and wonder why they should have their standards of living eroded to bail out inefficient Countries who put their own citizens and their quality of life first - essentially, on "free" money?..
A Spanish economist friend of mine prophesised more than 2 years (when only the PIGS were a topic of concern) ago that Italy was also well down down the bumpety-bump route - unheard of at that time.
Give it time, and if some of these Countries don't actually revert to their previous currency, a "two tier" euro is well possible. Germany, Austria, Holland & France possibly playing in the Premier League, and the rest in the 3rd Division. The Premier League could possibly take Belgium & Luxembourg with them (although they may not particularliy want Belgium) and then go it alone. The rest of the current EU would have to sort out their own affairs, and survive as best they could.
A two tier currency has happened beforee (N. & S. Ireland being just one example) and whilst not ideal, it survived for a long time.
Watch this space!
This message was last edited by finkies on 11/07/2012.
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What is a Billion?
I don't mean how many naughts but if I say a thousand pounds we know what that is but a billion !
A little help:-
A billion seconds ago it was 1959.
A billion minutes ago Jesus was alive
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You only know what it is when you've got it.
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Johzx
or how much the UK government spend before lunch and how much they spend after lunch each and every day of the year -- and it's going up!
David
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I expected all mortgages would convert to Euro's after all my mortgage else do they not face another meltdown as assets become priced in pts, incur even greater negative equity forcing people to just walk away even if they are one of the few that can afford the replayments. Can't see how this would be in anyones interest
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This was the thread starter:-
I just heard on the BCC a quote from one who should know about these things, that if the Drachma replaces the Euros it should do so at parity: 1 for 1.
If that happened in Spain maybe the Euro would be replaced with a New Peseta (NP) which also could have the same value as 1 euro at the moment of changed, which would be say at midnight one night, No transition period.
Thus all mortgages, bank loans etc. owed to enties within Spain would become NP debts. That would avoid all currency conversions. Eg a 100,000 euro debt (mortgage) would become a 100,000 NP debt.
The NP could then float immediately and find its own level against other currencies
I do not anticipate the demise of the Euro in Spain in the future but I think Greece cannot be that far off.
What do you guys thinks of that ?
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Hi jXX.
Yes but if this were to happen the NP
would suffer a 50% devaluation within
the following 24 hrs.
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If lucky, there is another day.
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I have just closed my Santander UK (ex Alliance & Leicester) account, I know the UK Govt. have stated that they will cover up to £30,000 of loss per person, if the UK outlets go t#ts up. I don't trust the present administration as they will do a "U" turn if things look dodgy. I am afraid that I have very little faith in Spanish banks at the moment, If one is in trouble, then there is a good chance that they all will incur losses. I guess that they are "all in it together" & all have funds at risk in rival banks.
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Midasgold
This a bold and sweeping statement - got anything to back it up with?
Devalue it would but I don't see how you can say it would be 50%.
In any case this is all just fantasy, when Spain is in receipt of all the 100bn bailout does anyone really think they will be allowed to leave!!
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Quote:
All 16 of Greece's eurozone neighbours led by Germany have put together a rescue package. This includes bilateral loans from countries inside the common currency area as well as money and technical advice from the IMF. Germany has been the main contributor followed by France. In May 2010 the EU and IMF provided €110bn in bailout loans to help Greece pay its creditors. This wasn't enough; a second €130bn bailout was agreed in early 2012.
Team GB.
Quote:- In any case this is all just fantasy, when Spain is in receipt of all the 100bn bailout does anyone really think they will be allowed to leave!!
Total lent to Greece, in region of 240 billion euros.
That makes Spain's 100 billion look small and there every chance Greece will leave the Euro in the near future.
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John
The difference being though Spain is the 4th largest economy in the EU
However for the same reason I don't think Greece will leave either, do you think the EU sorry Germany is going to write off the 240bn and say 'oh well we tried'
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Hi team gb.
A bold statement yes !!!!
If you think the Spanish N.P will have the SAME value as the euro
then dream on. What you are saying is that the German industrial wealth and efficiency
is the equivelent to Pedro and his donkey ! Can I back this up ? - Yes - the peoples money is
leaving Spain and heading for safe havens i.e. the German banks. Cold fact !!!
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If lucky, there is another day.
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Midas
I said;. If that happened in Spain maybe the Euro would be replaced with a New Peseta (NP) which also could have the same value as 1 euro at the moment of changed, which would be say at midnight one night, No transition period
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John zx
Ok - I wil go with that - (moment of exchange)
BUT within 24 hrs after I am convinced a devaluation is the ONLY option.
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If lucky, there is another day.
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if spain were to leave they would devalue the np by printing money the same way the uk did.this would help their exports become more sort after and help on the job front,short term i don't see them leaving.Long term i don't see them leaving as a bad thing they could just sit at the edge with a lower valued currency and still do business with the rest of europe in the same way they do now but with more attractive prices and it would give the tourist industry a boost as well
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dartboy
interesting post - if I understand what you are saying Spain will be better off by having lower unit cost, probably selling the same or similar amount of goods to the EU at a lower cost but as a net importer paying more for products and commodoties most of which are prices in USD or Euros. Does that work?
Also since the Tourist industry(a low margin industry) represents circa 10% of Spain GDP you'll need to attract an awful lot of tourists with money to spend to make a real difference.
David
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