The coming worldwide credit crunch

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25 Jul 2008 4:06 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Rob

I think you are spot on and I wish you luck with your hunt for a home. Typically as a proffesional investor you would not be looking for a gross yield of less than 10%, but finance less than renting is a good measure. It takes all the emotion out of prices - for example an aprtment that has gone from 400k to 200k sounds like a bargain - but its not if it was 200% overpriced to start with. In these crashes people always think stocks or houses look cheap on the way down because they have got used to high prices and their reference point was badly wrong. They buy only to watch their cheap asset half again.

Another clue will be when everyone stops talking about property and when you mention buying at 25% of its high they look at you like you are stupid = "Don't you know property only goes down?"

Oil is no bubble. Worldwide depletion is 4% and currently supply is matced with demand. The combined affects of ASIA and population growth and depletion will make olis hit new highs next year I think possible sooner.

Rent is a very good indicator - its the equivalent of earnings for a stock. If your property is really valuable then it stands to reason that someone will payto rent it. If it rents for little but costs a lot to buy you can be sure as eggs is eggs that its overpriced. Beware if your high rent requires foreigners to support it - ie here there is a vast difference between what is charged for foreigners and locals. In a bad slump like we are faceing, foreigners could simply dry up!

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25 Jul 2008 3:57 PM by Smiley Star rating in San Pedro de Alcanta.... 2502 posts Send private message

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Yeah i would quite like your take on that one as well TJ. I know you havent got a crystal ball but you do have a good handle - personally I think this is a temporary correction and I think it likely the oil price will continue upwards without some intervention from higher powers.

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25 Jul 2008 2:53 PM by Rob in Madrid Star rating in Madrid. 274 posts Send private message

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TJ you've been talking about this for about a year now but the Spanish are starting to wake and realize there is a real crisis here. The housing bubble is burst and prices are starting on their long climb down. Even reality has intruded on the other message board (competitor so can't tell you who but it has the name British in it) I sometimes frequent as people are waking up and realizing things are going wrong. Been reading stories of Brits who've moved here in the last 2-3 years decide that this miss rainy cold Britain (can understand why it really sucks trying to learn yet another language -thankfully I work in English all day) and the house isn't selling at any price  and suddenly they are stuck in Spain with no money and a house that won't sell.

Unfortunately the real problem isn't the credit crunch or housing bust but the fact that Spain has killed the Golden Goose. As you mentioned now that the boom is gone people are taking a hard look at what they're buying and don't like what they see. That doesn't bode well for the coast. On the other hand the economy is more diversified and very very surprisingly the banks are quite strong. The economy will recover in time, house prices never will.

If your like us and in the market for a home than you are in luck. We planning on sitting on the sidelines for another year and then we'll start putting in low ball offers. The biggest problem in Spain is that 99% of mortgages are flex not fixed rate and with interest rates heading up in the near term it's going to cause major problems in the housing sector. Most people I talk to say give it another year and the bottom will fall out of the housing market, sooner if rates jump again.

That's an interesting thought about house prices falling below rent, if I understand your numbers correct house (actually apartment) prices would have to fall to under 200,000€ from over 400,000€ rents are currently 950 a month.

As an aside one of the bigest issues facing the ECB is inflation expectations of German unions, inflation is up so they want pay hikes to compensate, wages go up, prices go up, wages go up again, it's a vicious cycle. Caught in between are ecomonies like Spain that need lower interest rates but can't set their own rates.

TJ what's your take on the price of oil the bubble burst and we'll see cheap petrol again in a few months or simply profit selling before the next nig run up.

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25 Jul 2008 9:26 AM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Maria

I think this is an excelent idea and probably the obvious working solution. All these empty properties should be lived in, not just because the owner needs some rent, but because partments and houses where ever they are need an occupier to bring life to the building. The alternative of millions of empty houses turning into ghettos thru neglect and abandonment is terrible and good for noone.

The problem still remains however that true rents in Spain match wages which are very low, certainly by north european standards. There is no way around the fact that Spanish property to buy is much much too expensive, more in line with Northern europe. I agree that its better to have some money coming in rather than none, but owners wether they be Brits or Spanish are going to have to get relaistic about priceing. The collapse in property prices cannot be stopped, nor would it be a good thing. For the long term health of Spain prices need to fall by 50%, then young Spanish people can buy a home again and the whole market can find a healthy footing. The cost of living will fall for everyone and Spain can become competative once again.

All that then needs to be done is government action to clean up Spain's terrible image regarding respecting foreigners property rights and to clean up the regulation of developers. If Spain remains a nation that "grabs" people's land and property, allows corruption and illegal planning and anyone to set up to steal people's deposits as a so called developer, then it can have little hope of attraction foreign investment in its property market. There are now too many competing markets for Spain to remain a cowboy third world nation in this respect.



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25 Jul 2008 7:33 AM by mariadecastro Star rating in Algeciras (Cadiz). 9419 posts Send private message

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Renting with option to buy:

a solution for:

young people staying at parents´ an not able to buy...  Government support suggested here.
people who want to buy and have no access to financiation at the present moment....
private owners who needs to sell and find no buyers... 
developers with loads of unsold properties: First Occupation License needed here...
Foreigners wanting to start the spanish adventure and with  no access to  the purchase of  a property...
Foreigners wanting to have a second residence in Spain... it is possible a renting contract with annual renovations for the vacations period.
Foreigners wanting to retire in Spain....

I highly advise to be balanced with setting the rent  ( it maybe that rent will no cover the full mortgage instalment, but still better than an empty house) and to submitt all the contracts to arbitartion rather than Courts and hire a reasonable priced Insurance for unpaid rents.

This will bring a bit of  movement to the real estate market during the following couple of years....

 Let´s start changing our mentality and thinking forward



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24 Jul 2008 11:59 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Rob

Interesting and I think you are very wise. The market is as you saturated so you can afford to chuck in silly offers and walk away. In a short time people who have been holding on will be forced to get real and appreciate that the fact that they overpaid massivley for their house does not mean that you should also pay too much also.

My guess is that houses will go lower than the cost to rent them. So for example if you rent a 2 bed apartment long term at Spanish rates of lets say 500euros a month then the price will fall to (500*12)/0.07 ie 85K euros. using 7% as a realistic yield, probably a little generous maybe shoudl use 10%.

Basically you should be able to finance the property at less than it costs to rent it. this is the historical norm. In most areas I see this suggests that property is still around 50% overvalued.

I think there are two choices for western europe, we either keep low rates and head towards stagflation and posibly hyperinflation or we tackle the debt inflation issue and put rates up to high double digits to purge the debt. If anyone thinks this is a little extreem then this is exactly what was doen in the 80's to cure the same problem we have now.

 



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23 Jul 2008 11:18 AM by chelseadel Star rating in Welling kent & Las .... 155 posts Send private message

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why don't you build your own home?

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19 Jul 2008 4:32 PM by Rob in Madrid Star rating in Madrid. 274 posts Send private message

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Hi TJ thanks for the reply. Came across this article the other day in Business Week

Credit Crunch expected to last a full generation

www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/08_30/b4093023467572.htm

To quote

Why hasn't the healing begun? The answer lies in the mechanics of leverage, or borrowed money, which banks not only provide to customers but also use themselves. Leverage is a powerful but dangerous tool, intoxicating on the way up and devastating on the way down. In other words one feeds on its self. Take the housing market, during boom times you want to get in as fast as possible, saving for a down payment isn't realistic because house prices increase faster than your savings do. When the reverse happens people (like us) sit out the market waiting for prices to go down. When we do make offers it tends to be ridiculously on the low side.

For example my Wife and I are looking at houses north of Madrid and my starting point is 50% of the current price. Well if the owner doesn't like it I can continue to rent for an extra year and wait, nothings moving and most Spanish are over extend by a large margin, I can afford to wait.

One of my students who works in the capital markets says we are were the US was a year ago. He expects that Spain will see a US style housing meltdown. Long term the economy will recover but personally Spain is so overbuilt house prices won't.

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Decided after all I don't like Spanish TV, that is having compared both.




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14 Jul 2008 7:17 PM by Roberto Star rating in Torremolinos. 4551 posts Send private message

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Sounds like you believe in the Gospel according to Douglas Adams? 
I love the part in HHGTTG where Ford orders loads of pints for himself and Arthur, explaining to the barman that the world is about to end. The barman asks if he should do something, like put a paper bag on his head. 
Ford says "If you like". 
Barman says, "Will it help?"  
Ford: "Nope!"

Something like that, anyway. It's along time ago, but I do remember that the answer is 42!!!

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"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please"

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14 Jul 2008 7:04 PM by Smiley Star rating in San Pedro de Alcanta.... 2502 posts Send private message

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Well I would tell you but you will have the most God almighty hangover tomorrow and they wont really have gone away.

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14 Jul 2008 7:02 PM by Roberto Star rating in Torremolinos. 4551 posts Send private message

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"......it will hit some people much harder than others and there is a lot people can do to minimise the effects"

Waiting with baited breath for the next chapter!
I for one would love to know what we can do to minimize the effects, please!

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14 Jul 2008 8:40 AM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

he goes on to say :

"The key measures of US cash, checking accounts, and time deposits - M1 and M2 - have been contracting in real terms for several months. A dramatic slowdown in Britain's broader M4 aggregates is setting off alarm bells here."

I thought the Fed/ECB were flooding the market with cash, how can the money supply be shrinking? Also most Spanish say to wait a year or two for the worse to happen, most people are surviving but just barely.


Rob - your question is a really good one and shows you have been paying attention lol!

The issue over inflation vs deflation is a complex one and not even economists agree. I intially found it difficult to understand how we could be on the verge of inflation and defaltuion at the same time, when one is the polar opposite of teh other.

The answer is complex ,but not when you understand why its critical to understand it all depends on what you are using as your measuring stick.

For example govenments like to distort the figures on GDP. The US tells us that they are not in recession as GDP last quarter grew at .6 % so an anualised rate of 2.4%.

However there are lies damm lies and statistics. You have to back out inflation from growth figures otherwise you are just measuring inflation. By taking a very low rate of inflation you can make the GDP figures positive. But in reality we have inflation of a min of 6%, so backing this out of the growth figures gives us a negative growth number, ie recession, which funnily enough is how everyone feels it - go figure!

The US has been expanding its money supply for years, but mainly M3 which is largely private and corporate debt. This money has to go somewhere so its nonsense to suggest that money supply figures are not important. Sure we had many yaers of low inflation growth, but that does not mean that we had no inflation, as I said teh money had to go somewhere, and it went into the stock market and houseing.

The fact that we chose to ignore house price inflation from the inflation stats and see this together with stock prices going up as a good thing ie good inflation is just ignoring the truth in favour of what you want to see. Ask first time buyers who couldn't get on teh housing ladder and see if they saw it as good inflation?

Once the stock market buuble burst and so did the housing bubble, then this money transferred to commodities like food and energy as people looked to invest in hard assets to protect their wealth form inflation.

Now we have the same inflationary forces, but its seens as bad inflation, funny that. A loaf of bread going up is bad inflation, but housing going up is good inflation. In reality its all the same, and all bad news.

So to get back to inflation/deflation we have both. Inflation in real goods and services such as food and energy, and deflation in housing and equities. We are heading rapidly for stagflation which as you know is really bad news.

Noone who has an understanding of these issues should be very surprised. There are no long term good effects of inflation and no country has ever sucessfully inflated its way out of trouble, and yet that is what we are trying again. They all end the same way, in teh opposite of prosperity, poverty. This one will be no different, but it will hit some people much harder than others and there is a lot people can do to minimise the effects.

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13 Jul 2008 8:44 PM by Rob in Madrid Star rating in Madrid. 274 posts Send private message

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No you are correct, it's just I heard someone refer to the news that way and I never really forgot it. In America they tend to say in regards to the news "if it bleeds it leads!"

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Decided after all I don't like Spanish TV, that is having compared both.




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12 Jul 2008 6:23 PM by Roberto Star rating in Torremolinos. 4551 posts Send private message

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I heard somewhere recently that N.E.W.S derives from the four compass points.

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11 Jul 2008 8:15 PM by Rob in Madrid Star rating in Madrid. 274 posts Send private message

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Hey TJ noticed this today in the Telegraph today

Monetarists warn of crunch across Atlantic economies

The lifeblood of countries' economies is draining away - with grim consequences for us all, writes Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml 

he goes on to say :

"The key measures of US cash, checking accounts, and time deposits - M1 and M2 - have been contracting in real terms for several months. A dramatic slowdown in Britain's broader M4 aggregates is setting off alarm bells here."

I thought the Fed/ECB were flooding the market with cash, how can the money supply be shrinking? Also most Spanish say to wait a year or two for the worse to happen, most people are surviving but just barely.

And more bad news, any wonder N.E.W.S. stands for Negative Emphasis of What's Seen

www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml

This message was last edited by Rob in Madrid on 7/11/2008.

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Decided after all I don't like Spanish TV, that is having compared both.




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30 Jun 2008 5:49 PM by Roberto Star rating in Torremolinos. 4551 posts Send private message

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I hardly use the car nowadays (2000 kms between annual services - what the hell do I even keep it for?) but a full tank of diesel which used to cost me €50, last fill up was €70. Quite a big rise, for sure. Also have noticed the electric bills creeping up, but otherwise, no, I can't say I've noticed it too much either. But then I rarely pay much attention to how much the supermarket bill comes to - after all, you have to eat. We buy very few luxury items, just the basic necessities, but we eat very well, ¡gracias adios!

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"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please"

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29 Jun 2008 5:33 PM by Rob in Madrid Star rating in Madrid. 274 posts Send private message

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as an aside although I've been reading alot about inflation I personally haven't noticed it too much (other than petrol). Thankfully our landlady didn't raise our rent this year so with a COLA (cost of living adjustment) that my wife got we're actually slightly better off.

sorry can't edit the font size in the previous post - eyes aint a youngin anymore

This message was last edited by Rob in Madrid on 6/29/2008.

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Decided after all I don't like Spanish TV, that is having compared both.




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29 Jun 2008 5:31 PM by Rob in Madrid Star rating in Madrid. 274 posts Send private message

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Perhaps it's time to close this thread and start a new one?  this one is getting a little long (but very interesting)

Although I don't live on the coast I can understand why someone would be seduced by the Spanish lifestyle. Like Brits Americans and Canadians (us) and unlike Germans I'm a firm believer in owning. I've been watching the property market in Madrid for almost 2 years and every time I look at the housing market I get discouraged. Even with a 100.000€ down payment (of which a third will be eaten up in fees and taxes) we're stay looking at a 30 year mortgage payment of 1500 a month (250.000€ mortgage). Even then you have to go way out of the city to find anything under half a mil.

What I don't understand is who is buying these properties, certainly not the Spanish

Average price for an apartment in Madrid is around 800.000€ (although in the burbs places can be found for more reasonable 400 to 500 thousand). Rents start at 1000€ a month and a good paying job you net 1500 a month over 14 pays or about 30.000 a year.

Even with my Wife's (very) above wage I don't think we could afford a place anywhere near downtown Madrid.

Any thoughts as to who is buying today?????


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24 Jun 2008 10:04 AM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

It seems everyone is now aware of the current problem, central banks are in a no win situation. Thye can't cut rates to try and save the property market and jobs because of the inflationary pressures now everywhere. They can't raise rates to fight off inflation without tipping the west into recession.

But ............this was a problem that "they" should have thought about before going on a reckless spending binge with cheap credit.

Zapatero has a cheek, he the worst culprit of all with an economy highly dependent on a bubble houseing market has the bareface to question the ECB who are doing the only responsible thing. I imagine his credibility with the ECB just sunk to new lows, afterall its the ECB that will be forced to clear up his mess and incompetance.

From today's Telegraph.........


Albert Edwards, chief strategist at Société Générale, said the ECB risked making a grave policy error by tightening monetary policy just as the economy tips into a downturn. The eurozone's M1 money supply has actually fallen since January.

"As global recession beckons, the ECB clearly doesn't want to be left out. One wonders whether the bank will really carry through their threat to raise rates. If they do, they seek to halt rising inflation expectations by crushing the economy. Whereas many now see a real threat of a wage price spiral, we see nothing of the sort. The main threat over the next 12 months is deflation, which will be revealed when the current liquidity driven commodity bubble bursts," he said.

Sergio Marchionne, Fiat's chief executive, said the outlook in Italy's car market was now "disastrous". Registrations plummeted 18pc in May. He said early sales figures suggest that June is likely to be just as bad.

  • More on economics

    The picture in Spain has deteriorated dramatically since the start of the year. Premier Jose Luis Zapatero - who recently rebuked the ECB for failing to act "responsibly" - said yesterday that he was taking a pay freeze as he introduced a spending blitz to cushion the hard landing. He insisted that the stimulus measures were within EU rules. "We won't do anything that endangers the solvency of Spain," he said.

    The Spanish Confederation of Commerce (CEC) said textile companies were having to slash prices by 30pc to 40pc to cut excess stock. "I can never remember such an alarming situation for the textile sector," said the group's chief, Miguel Angel Fraile.

    Although Spanish banks steered clear of the US sub-prime debacle, they face a major headache at home as the housing boom deflates. Property prices have fallen 7.7pc over the past year according to government data. Prices are down 21pc in Rioja, 14pc in Valencia and 10pc in Catalunia.

    Deutsche Bank expects house prices to fall up to 35pc in real terms, with the purge lasting until 2011 before the massive overhang of unsold properties is cleared. "Spain is facing one of the most difficult periods in recent history. House prices are even more overvalued than in the late Eighties. The adjustment process is likely to take longer than in previous cycles," said the bank.

    Rising defaults are already starting to cause problems for the lenders. Jose Luis Olivas, president of Bancaja, says banks will need to roll over €175bn (£138bn) over coming months. They can raise money at the European Central Bank, but this practice is causing increasing concern in Frankfurt. ECB officials are probing whether lenders have issued low-grade collateral to use at the window.



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    20 Jun 2008 12:39 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

    But don't worry its a great time to buy a home in Spain 

    Brace yourselves: Bank of England boss warns of low pay rises and soaring bills in a 'difficult year'



    Millions of families must brace themselves for a gruelling period with finances stretched to breaking point, the Bank of England governor warned last night.

    Mervyn King said they should prepare for the lethal cocktail of below-inflation pay rises, rising fuel and food bills and more expensive mortgages. 

    In a bleak speech at the Mansion House, a key set piece in the financial calendar, he said Britain is facing 'the most difficult economic challenge for two decades'.

    Chancellor Alistair Darling (left), the Lord Mayor of the City of London, Alderman David Lewis, and the Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King (right) at the Lord Mayor's dinner to the Bankers and Merchants last night

    Mr King warned that:
    Average take-home pay will 'stagnate' as family finances are battered by rising fuel, gas, electricity and food prices; 

    Pay rises must remain 'low' to keep spiralling inflation under control; 

    The Bank will take 'whatever action is needed' to return inflation to the Government's target of two per cent, a hint that interest rates could rise; 

    The era of cheap mortgages is over and 'sharp' increases in gas and electricity bills are 'probably on their way'. 

    He said: 'It will not be an easy time, and I know that some families will find it particularly difficult.'

     

    In his first Mansion House speech on the same platform, Chancellor Alistair Darling echoed Mr King's warning to workers that big pay rises are a thing of the past.

     

    The Chancellor said: 'To return now to inflationary pay settlements would undermine rather than raise living standards with a damaging circle of wage increases eroded by steadily rising prices. We must never return to those days.'

    He also used his speech to dismiss talk of an imminent recession, insisting that the economy will 'continue to grow.'

    But union leaders warned that their members will strike rather than accept a below-inflation pay rise, which is the equivalent of a pay cut.

    Action would cause widespread disruption, with key workers across the public sector from the NHS to the civil service threatening to walk out. 

    Unison, the public services union, is balloting its 800,000 members in local government, including social workers, teaching assistants and dinner ladies.

    It is urging them to reject a 2.45 per cent, one-year pay offer, and to vote to strike

    A result is expected on Monday. In a further threat, Unison said it is prepared to rip up an NHS pay deal which was formally agreed yesterday if inflation keeps on rising.

    Under the three-year deal worth around eight per cent, 1.3million NHS workers will receive a 2.75 per cent rise this year, far below inflation.

    Official figures showed yesterday that inflation has jumped to 3.3 per cent, its highest level since 1992, and is predicted to keep on rising.

    The deal was negotiated on the assumption of inflation around three per cent, but the Bank of England predicts it could rise above four per cent within months.

    In a speech at the union's annual conference in Bournemouth, general secretary Dave Prentis said it has the right to reopen the pay talks. He said: 'Our members in the NHS have voted to accept a three-year deal. 

    'But be in no doubt. There is no blank cheque. I want to make it clear that if prices continue to spiral, we will be back. 

    'This agreement will be reopened. 'We won't take no for an answer. If the Government refuses, we will ballot for industrial action. And that's a promise.' 

    Yesterday the Public and Commercial Services Union said it is also considering balloting its 280,000 members in the Civil Service about strike action. It threatened a 'varied and imaginative' series of strikes, rather than accept a below-inflation pay rise.

    General secretary Mark Serwotka said it is ridiculous to use the 'discredited' argument that public- sector pay fuels inflation. 

    'The reality is that we have members earning just above the minimum wage and they see their food and fuel bills and their mortgage going up.'

    Brendan Barber, general secretary of the Trades Union Congress, joined the calls for workers not to be punished for rising inflation. 

    In a direct warning hours before the Chancellor's speech, he said it is unfair to use workers as a scapegoat. 'Our economic difficulties are caused by reckless lending by bankers and current inflation comes from higher oil, food and commodity prices.'

    In a further blow for cash-strapped workers, a Bank report sounded the alarm yesterday about the worsening outlook in the jobs market.

    It said more bosses are looking to recruit temporary or freelance workers, rather than commit to the cost of a full-time worker



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