"Must get back to the HMRC website....."

Please give them a gentle prod kick from me!

Hi Norman,

I think my pm's are working OK, although it's some time since I received one, I will have to look into it.  Yes, I am more-or-less back in working order, I had to drive down to Ashford this morning to be prodded and told that they didn't want to see me anymore (a mutual feeling) although having damn near killed me, I am not sure whether I can say the NHS did it well.

I will make this a quick reply as I am trying to work out how much the UK tax man owes me at present.  I used to be in the energy business and am still a retired member of my institutions, so I get the professional mag's etc.  The no 1 thing to do is stop waste, at least 30% of the fuel we use is wasted, I have shown companies how to save 50% quite often and on one occasion 70%, although I don't think they actually took my advice.  Technology must eventually come to our rescue, but whether it's in my lifetime, I do not know.

Must get back to the HMRC website.....

Mike

Hello Mike,

glad you are back, are your pm's working?

trust that means that the NHS has done it's job well.

the future for this little island is bleak unless we crack the energy "thing", it is quite absurd that we have not cracked the H2O puzzle, or in this corrupt and selfish world the solution is buried by vested interests.

I am currently inundated with the wretched stuff and cannot pump it away fast enough.

Best regards

Norman

The consumption figures are changing.  Whilst it is still true that the USA consumes by far the most oil per head of population, China is rapidly climbing up the table for overall consumption in oil and most other natural resources and that's what is fuelling much of the current inflation.  What worries me most is that in a few years the only remaining supplies of oil and gas will be in Russia and we know what they will do when they have got the market cornered!  In addition the USA is trillions of dollars in debt to China and I believe that China's latest largesse in offering to bail out the PIGS is an effort to take Europe in the same direction.  Once your whole economy is in debt to another nation, they can dictate their terms at will.

Mike

"Better reverse the smoking ban ASAP or we'll end up killing each other by other means anyway soon enough!"

LOL!

Can you imagine if we had a world wide 1920's style Prohibition!?!?!?

Don't think anyone would care about the Smoking Ban or Oil running out then!

Mind you, when you say about the amount of people on the planet by 2045, surely that is if we get passed 2012?

It's not about how much oil, or any other resource (water for example) is left or not, rather about how many people there are on the planet wanting (or needing) it. 9 billion people by 2045? Better reverse the smoking ban ASAP or we'll end up killing each other by other means anyway soon enough!

Oh god!

Here we go again!

Second guessing 'when' Spain will default and need a 'bailout'.

Have none of you been listening!

The EU and the IMF cannot afford to bail out Spain... simple!

Spain is Europe's third largest economy, so how the hell do you think the EU can afford to bail them out!

And, by the way, that also includes the UK in the melting pot, when it comes to an economy being over-extended

If we all believe the 'financial experts' on here that quote 'wall street' articles ... all I can say is that it was the USA that got us all into this problem to begin with!

I could go on and on (and invariably I do) with my own interpretations as to what 'may' happen, quoting the world's press, however do they 'really' know what is going on? Do they really know what 'will' happen?

No! They don't!

Nobody does!

So I for one don't care anymore and will continue to enjoy my life whilst I can... and the day I don't, will be the day that everyone cares what the USA say!

Why! Because on that day the USA will have sent troops into every corner of the world that poses oil reserves, so that they can keep it all for themselves!

No!

The USA is the world's largest consumer (scroll down the page for the chart) of oil and consume over 25% of the worlds oil!

On average the USA consumes 19 million 650 thousand barrels of oil per day! As compared to Germany's 2 million 831 thousand, UK's 1 million 710 thousand or Spain's 1 million 497 thousand barrels of oil, per day!

You lot should be more concerned about when the worlds oil reserves start running out.... oops! sorry! they already have!

NOTE: You may notice that the information was based on a CIA World Factbook page, dated 2001 - that's 10 years ago!

Dear All,

it seems to me that there are many factors that affect the Spanish property market, some of which may be under attack.

it has been suggested that prices are stubbornly high because many sellers, even of multiple properties are mortgage free.

isn't it also the case that "normal" market conditons will always be boosted by "laundry" money as they have in the past?

Just a thought.

Regards

Norman

For those interested Planet Money did a fanstic show on how the small local Spanish Cajas could very possbily bring down the entire financial system, very interesting. You can download if for free on itune, search planet money and exposide 239 and 241

The baisic jest is they went wild borrowing and loaning money, now most of the loans are bad (hense the reason why it is so hard to get a mortgage from a Spanish bank) and everyone is worried what happens when people wake up and panic. Banks stop lending money etc etc

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/01/07/132717135/a-theme-park-an-airport-and-the-next-banking-crisis

And when you didn't think it could get anyworse

The ugly reality of Spanish sub prime mortgages, oh it gets better and better all the time.

http://news.kyero.com/2011/01/04/the-ugly-reality-of-subprime-mortgages/

"The longer the powers that be try to hold it together the bigger the bill and the bust will eventually be."

TJ222, does this still hold true if the US enters the equation as described in this latest headline “Global financial markets rise amid bail-out rumours” see http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11884132

What do you make of this latest move?

Tj 222

Great posts

In my opinion it will be Germany that dicates the future of the euro, they are the only country within EMU that can walk away from the situation without debt or any fear of devaluation of there currency.

Georgia

A good article on the BBC yesterday about  capital flight should any pigs be thinking of leaving

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-11830532

Steve

 Tj222

Thanks for that but i thought that when the Euro agreement was reached there wasn't an exit option in the clauses?

Can anyone actually leave the Euro.

I think we are all in for torrid time whatever....

In my opinion the biggest factor to hold Spain back from any recovery is it's labour laws.

We have cheap labour in the droves,cheap land,cheap industrial units and plenty of places to build them if needed.

We have seen both Paramount and Microsoft invest in the area in the past few months but the archaic labour laws restrict any real volume of investment from Blue chip companies, if this changed Spain could be the next India.

Nice to have you back for your input.....i think everyone is getting tired of second guessing the economic volcano that is next in line for eruption.

I thnk the bond issue in Spain in the next 6 weeks will tell a few tales.

 georgia

I don;t think that is very likely, not atleast with Germany as part of the EMU. If Germany left which I do think is a possibility depending very much on who is in power at the time and prevailing voter mood, then the Euro would crash aginst other major currencies, but I think 3 to 1 would be a catastrophe which is very unlikely. The Euro would have dissolved long before that.

A major current theme is the devaluation of currencies in general which is not apparent when measured against each other. For example both the USD and the GBP have lost around 98% of their purchasing power since losing the gold standard, but this is not apparent when measured in currency terms. All major ecomomies are destroying the value of their currencies together, so as to not lose out on the exporting front and so that major currency upheavals are not apparent.

So all major currencies could get printed into oblivion, but if it was all done in concert and relative to GDP, there would be no change in exchange rates - a sort of stealth destruction of value.

Spain exits from the euro would entail a huge reduction in the standard or living for its people, particularly in relation to imported goods and dollar based commodities. Since like the UK, SP does not produce much, it would mean massive inflation in virtually all goods, but not in the price of national services such as a hair cut or local produce.

In time if SP got its act together and got rid of these disasterous socialist policies and made Spain and its attractions competative again, it could make a very solid recovery. Spain has many endowments that could and should make it a very attractive place to live, work and retire to.

Great to see you back, TJ, by the way - where have you been?

Personally, I find all this rather depressing, not to mention confusing, so, thanks to the straight-thinking Aussies, here's a little light relief, and a clear, concise explanation of wot it's all abou'.

 A financial Advisor in the Uk whom i have known for 20 years recently told me that we could end up with an exchange rate of £1=3€!!

He did explain the reasons behind this but to be quite honest the exchange rate was the only thing i really remember from the conversation.

Do you think this is possible TJ222 ?and what do you think are the repurcussions of this apart from the obvious?

 ads

At a brief glance the analysis looks sound to me. However it does not change the simple fact that all debt has to be paid. All debt will eventually be paid by either the debtor or the creditor. At the moment the struggle to keep the Euro afloat is imho mostly aimed at ensuring the bondholders (creditors) do not share in the pain.

So the only arguement is who is going to pay for the last decade of Euro mirage and party. At the moment it seems to be all down to the atttendees of the rave ( the taxpayer) and no blame to be held by the rave organisers. I think that an arguement can be made for pain to be shared, afterall noone was forced to drink themselves silly, but then the booze was artifically cheap.

The problem remains that nothing is going to get better despite what the politicians and the papers tell you, until this debt is defaulted on or repaid. Ideally it would be repaid, but the fractional reserve debt based money system we live in does not allow for repayment of debt, unless new debt is issued in excess of the old debt. Since the credit crunch new debt issue is not keeping up, so debt default is a mathematical certainty.

The bailouts for the PIGS will not work either, because you are coming to the "rescue" of someone who's problem is too much debt, with yes MORE debt. 

Austerity will not work either, just imagine that you are a family whose debt burden is too much and the answer is to cut your wages and raise your taxes!!!!

Spain is caught between a rock and a hard place, some form of default is inevitable, its just a question of time and what form the default takes. The honest and drastic form is simply to hold up your hands and say you cannot pay. Governments are not keen on this as the article rightly points out because it make future borrowing nigh on impossible. The favoured way out is stealth default, which is just to print money and try and paper over the cracks. HOWEVER this just delays the painful day as inflation comes back to haunt people.

The public servants of Spain MAY still get their 2000 euros a month, but they will find it does not buy them much when a litre of petrol is 5 euros. 

The public needs to get seriously real and seriously quickly, like a non paid parking ticket, the bill just goes on getting bigger and bigger the longer it is left unpaid. The arguements for keeping the Euro together beacuse of the costs and difficulties of unwinding it, is the same as keeping thorwing good money after bad into your pet business, or a too big to fail car manufacturer or bank. It does not change the facts.

I see one of three thing happening

1. Austerity gets too painful for Spain and there is too much civil unrest - its not hard to see this as its escalating across europe already. Spain then decides to pull out of EMU voluntarily.

2. Spain gets ejected because the bailouts are too big or too unpopular. There is already a German court case still pending questioning the validity under German law of the bailout mechanism. Merkel and her party are on a knife edge with voters already, the current bailouts are deeply unpopular.

3. Germany goes back to the DM and the Euro immeditely devalues by 30% plus. I think this would shortly be followed by a complete return to single currencies as the Euro is only strong due to Germany.

The longer the powers that be try to hold it together the bigger the bill and the bust will eventually be.

What is your opinion of the analysis in this blog TJ222?

http://www.eyeonspain.com/blogs/SpanishBusinessNews/4578/leaving-the-euro-how-would-it-work.aspx

Hi Tj222 a great true vidio, when the funds are all used up when spain needs its bail out, which it will.What  will the EU ( ECB ) do then. borrow billions from the lmf to bail out the whole eu.? they may as well hand everything over to the chinese. l think we really need someone like Germany to say enough is a enough we are pulling out of this farce.  Pat.

 Take a look today at 10 yr Spanish bonds, it looks like Spain is next in line.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GSPG10YR:IND

And take a look at this video and see more truth in 4mins than from any politician or banker or economist for the last ten years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fyq7WRr_GPg&feature=popt1dnz0a

" and putting in place a decent set of fair laws for property ownership, that give people confidence that they can actually own something without losing their shirts in the process."

Spot on TJ222 but those laws would have to recognise those seeking justice as we speak, otherwise it would be perceived as a mockery, just rhetoric, and no-one would believe that they wouldn't repeat their avoidance of accountability exercise in the future..

It's the true application of law that gives credence, not some publicity stunt to try and sway unsuspecting purchasers.