Operation Yellow Hammer

Is it not time for those who are willing ( and sufficiently concerned) to review the detail provided in the economic report  https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Evidence-to-Treasury-Committee-Prof-Patrick-Minford-7-Dec-18.pdf  and forward this to their MPs via www.writetothem.com  and request that they advise if outside independent economists have been given access to the HMT ( Her Majesty’s Treasury) detail and what conclusions the Government have now reached, backed up by detailed and transparent reports? 

Also isn’t this essential to the whole educational debate going on in the country as we speak?....

Without educating of the facts backed up by good proven intellectual assessments, how on earth can citizens decide what to believe and what not to believe? Far too little attention is given to sound intellectual reasoning, as opposed to political rhetoric, which has led to so many  UK citizens being disillusioned by Parliamentarians at both EU and UK levels.

Mickeyfinn, with all due respect, political rhetoric and fixed mindsets unwilling to recognise intellectual and sound rational independent economic assessments, without which wrong decision making so negatively impacts all citizens, appears to be at the heart of  Brexit.

IMHO, more trusted factual evidences are needed to be transparently assessed, and openly debated, not more political divisive mantra.

The devil is always in the detail where economic strategy is concerned, and we all need greater reassurances that this is being fully and carefully analysed with open minds in relation to Brexit, for the sake of all citizens best interests going forward. 

This is not just about preparing for worst case scenario, it should be about evaluating economic details correctly, relating to all options available to our country upon exiting the EU.

More facts, not rhetoric please.

Most people now agree that Brexit will cause some disruption to the UK economy, though the scale of this disruption is disputed: hard Brexiters tend to think it will be limited and short-term, while Remainers tend to think it will be widespread and long-lasting. But the real costs of Brexit arise not from the actual act of leaving the EU, but from preparing for the new reality beforehand and adjusting to it afterwards. And – above all – from uncertainty.

The IMF in its recent global outlook predicts Britain’s economy will be significantly smaller over the longer term than it would have been as an EU member. The scale of the loss varies from three per cent for an orderly departure with a deal to nearly six per cent for a disruptive No Deal Brexit. This is due to higher costs of trade with EU countries and any non-EU countries with which the UK fails to renegotiate existing EU trade deals; reduced investment due to lower returns on capital; and a smaller labour force due to lower immigration.

Francis Coppola GQ April 2019.

It is my view that any fair-minded individual can accept this premise since it's not partisan not rhetorical. That then begs the question why do it? Why leave the EU in the first place?  What advantage does it bring? I have yet to read any convincing arguments that support such a process.

The country would probably vote for the return of capital punishment if that were put to a referendum. It doesn't mean it should be done. Brexit is no different and equally damaging in my view to the UK's standing in the world.

Mickeyfinn,

In the report by the free trade economists, the economic assessment and scale of loss that you relate to has already been assessed and found to be highly questionable ( the details are covered in the free trade economist report).

They highlight “It should be also noted that in separate work we have tested different model variations in our own Cardiff World Trade Model and found that the most accurate model is closest to the perfect competition Classical version.”

I would therefore ask the question have these major differences in modelling and use of realistic data been fully accounted for?

Plus the uncertainty that they relate to is also a compelling reason for swift resolution, which the Government is now seeking. Any further extensions will only add to uncertainty, so it would appear a catch22 scenario once again for citizens to be exposed to further uncertainties that have negative economic impacts.

The EU and our Government owe it to ALL citizens to resolve this by October 31st, but in that process both should remain fully aware of realistic data when concluding their economic strategies going forward.

Anything other than this would be perceived as manoeuvring for political gain, and a failure to be willing to find workable solutions not only from a realistic economic perspective, but also to amicably and fairly resolve the Irish border issues,  which should never be used as yet another political ploy in this process.

Free trade economists are a bunch of Brexiteer supporters led by Patrick Minford whom you always quote to support your particulat point of view. They are not independent. They have a particular view of the world and believe in unregulated, unfettered free trade.  

The IMF is a global institutional body made up of independent economists entirely separate from the Brexit debate.  

I agree a deal is necessary. I agree more delay creates more uncertainty but leaving the EU with no deal whatever solves nothing. It creates more uncertainty, and more public rancour.  Political problems will increase not lessen as half the UK population feels disenfranchise and the economy worsens. Yellow Hammer is just the tip of the iceberg.  

The UK needs and demands an end to this current psycho drama. Unless a so,ution is found soon the political stability of the UK is at risk. 

Apparently .. when you read the various press reports..the sth of Ireland economy is going to go into a deep recession ... along with Germany & France ...I think the EU is going to go bust extremely quick .. when the Billions of ££££££££ of UK Tax payers stop rolling in to prop up the over valued  €€€.

Yes Micky

‘’The UK needs and demands an end to this current psycho drama. Unless a so,ution is found soon the political stability of the UK is at risk.’’ 

But who do you want to do what?

A second referendum with an option to remain or leave with acceptance of the backstop then a deal with the EU based on the result. Then ideally a General Election in 2020.

In the meantime another extension for 6 months to see that process through.

Let's say we do have another Referendum ...and the democratic vote is 51% to remain against 49% that wants to leave.. will the leave voters need to abide by the DEMOCRATIC outcome ...or can the Leavers ask for another vote.

That’s fair enough Micky and thank you. Just a couple of questions so we are all clear.

Would a ‘’no deal just leave’’ be on the ballot paper?

Would this be the final referendum or maybe best of 3 or 5 depending on the result?

This thread is realy useful NOT. All the usual guesses about this that an the other, whilst those expats living in the EU want to "cherry pick" the type of Brexit that suits them the best and to hell with the rest of us.

If the thread is not useful or boring then simply ignore it and turn off the notifications. There is no obligation to contribute.

Kavanagh, I suspect you're being slightly disingenuous with tongue in cheek but I am always prepared to give anyone the benefit of the doubt.

The second referendum would offer an option to remain or leave with a deal. That's not so difficult to understand. Why would any responsible government offer another option that they know would be so destructive? They did that once and look what happened. Hubris led the Cameron administration to believe the British people would not be that stupid. Well, a lesson learned is a benefit to profit from. 

As I keep repeating you cannot in a modern democracy satisfy one group of people, even if numerically they are a majority, at the expense of an almost equally large minority. The art of compromise is supposed to be the principal skill of the professional politician. If they cannot do it the public will find someone who can. Or fall into a dictatorship. Which option do you prefer?

zzzzzzzzzzz

Surely in a democrat society it cannot be a Micky’s options only vote.

Perhaps to ensure everyone is satisfied there should be a pre-referendum to decide what should be the voting options in a second main referendum.

Back on thread...

Here’s further clarifications re yellow hammer and common interests, as discussed this morning during Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay's Interview on “Sophy Ridge on Sunday”

( Do a search on Stephen Barclay interview with Sophie Ridge) as the URL doesn’t seem to work....

Here is Spain after the floods I have noticed the shops are very empty. It may only be a temporary matter with folks panic buying and stocking up. However, it is a taste of what Yellow Hammer may likely bring if no-deal ever comes to pass. Women fighting in the supermarket isles over the last bag of carrots. It is madness for any democratic country to even risk the consequences but we are living through strange times.

Micky, you don’t half exaggerate things. This morning I went to the supermarket and there was as much as you wanted to buy, including water. Where have you witnessed women fighting over a bag of home grown carrots?

Perhaps you want a second referendum with only 2 choices, remain and remain, that’s a dictatorship not a democracy.

Micky every time we have a threat of snow in the UK ..you can't buy a pint of milk or a loaf of bread.. through people panic buying..I thought this was the same case in Spain...if the Spanish can't get hold of the food that they require ..tell them not to worry as the British are willing to sell them anything that they desire.But only.if the EU will allow them to buy it.

If anything Spain has the largest amount of almost everything the consumer wants, a typical supermarket in the UK has 20 maybe 30 pieces of cheese to choose from, Spain has close to 200 / 300, same with almost everything else, the idea of Spanish shoppers fighting over a bag of carrots beggars belief, so working on that assumption then, shortage of carrots means the farmers didn't, cant, wont grow them to sell, now the farmer goes bust due to not growing anything.

Most sensible people know that if someone has a decent product to sell then there is always someone to buy it....Bloody EU or no Bloody EU.

A short delay in getting fresh food to stores due to floods might have been expected, my bet is it lasted all of twenty minutes or so.

The example i wrote was apocryphal but it did acutally happen only because we both reached at the same time for the last bag left. I happily gave the lady the carrot bag.

It then occured to me this is what will happen in Britain when shortages kick in. Stock piling will begin long before the country leaves the EU. Consumers are not stupid they will empty the supermarkets at the very wiff of a no deal. Yellow Hammer or not the market will rule. Shortages are inevitable and the government know it.

The example i wrote was apocryphal but it did acutally happen only because we both reached at the same time for the last bag left. I happily gave the lady the carrot bag.

It then occured to me this is what will happen in Britain when shortages kick in. Stock piling will begin long before the country leaves the EU. Consumers are not stupid they will empty the supermarkets at the very wiff of a no deal. Yellow Hammer or not the market will rule. Shortages are inevitable and the government know it.

Last bag of carrots left? Closing time? Saturday shoppers? Been a good day for carrot sales? How many bags of carrots can a store predict to keep for sale and confirm these are fresh ones.

Why didn't you just smack her on the nose and take the last bag of carrots Micky?  After all Micky you smack us all on the nose with your predictions on what will happen come doomsday....Which of course even the buffoon doesn't know what will happen.....Unless of course it was him and you fighting over these 'Golden' carrots.