The coming worldwide credit crunch

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08 Feb 2008 3:50 PM by Gillespie Star rating in Costa Calida Area. 608 posts Send private message

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Kelju, be carefull, if they stack them in the shape of a house, you could end up with an illegal build in your garden!
That would make you a rogue developer and a very naughtie person indeed.

This message was last edited by Gillespie on 2/8/2008.

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08 Feb 2008 6:49 PM by morerosado Star rating. 6927 posts Send private message

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Taking TJ a long time to drink that cup of tea.

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11 Feb 2008 10:47 AM by Acapulco Star rating in Costa Blanca South.. 342 posts Send private message

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I see in some areas of the UK estate agents are advertising for properties to sell. If there is a shortage of property available surely prices should hold up o.k.



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11 Feb 2008 11:10 AM by Patty_1 Star rating in Hertfordshire. UK. .... 1062 posts Send private message

Yes we have even had estate agents knocking on the door asking if we are likely to sell in the near future,   we keep getting all their flyers, nearly every week their is something fron one of them.   It seems what houses are for sale go pretty quickly.       Pat

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20 Feb 2008 7:29 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Countrywide delinquency rate hits 7.47%

Mortgage lender says delinquencies on borrowers' loan payments increased in January as foreclosure rates remain steady.

 (AP) -- Countrywide Financial, the nation's largest mortgage lender, says delinquencies and foreclosures continued to rise in January.

Delinquencies in Countrywide's servicing portfolio increased to 7.47% in January, up from 7.2% the previous month and 4.32% in January 2007. Loan servicers collect mortgage payments and distribute them to the owners of the mortgages.

Foreclosure rates as a percentage of unpaid principal balance increased to 1.48% in January, up from 1.44% in December and 0.77% in January 2007.

Calabasas, Calif.-based Countrywide services mortgages totaling about $1.48 trillion



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20 Feb 2008 7:45 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

From the last Bank of England MPC minutes

David “Danny” Blanchflower voted for a jumbo half point cut in UK rates last time around, say reports. His view being the UK faces a “very sharp slowdown” in growth and a significant response is needed.

Another member of the MPC, Kate Barker, is in the news too. She was talking and when she talks we listen. She’s the Bank of England’s housing market expert and last night she was addressing the worthies of the North Staffordshire Chamber of Commerce. She spelled out the threat to property prices from the credit crunch.

"If credit tightening were to prove more severe than in the MPC's present central projection, leading to a significant fall in lending to households and companies, this could prompt a further decline in property values.

"The consequent adverse impact on growth could prove difficult to turn around quickly, potentially resulting in a protracted period of low output growth and below target inflation."

Her comments coincide with the news that four lenders are pulling their 100% mortgage deals. Maybe Danny had a point.



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20 Feb 2008 7:53 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Fed forecasts inflation, unemployment

        WASHINGTON (AP) -     The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered its
projection for economic growth this year, citing damage from the double blows of
a housing slump and credit crunch. It said it also expects higher unemployment
and inflation.
    The updated forecasts come amid worry by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke and his colleagues that the economy could continue to weaken, even
after their aggressive interest rate cuts in January, according to minutes of
those private deliberations released Wednesday.
    "With no signs of stabilization in the housing sector and with financial
conditions not yet stabilized, the committee agreed that downside risks to
growth would remain even after this action," minutes of the Fed's Jan. 29-30
closed door meeting showed.
    The Fed at that session voted to cut a key interest rate by one-half
percentage point to 3 percent at that meeting. Just eight day earlier, the Fed,
in an emergency session, slashed its rate by a rare three-quarters percentage
point. The two rate cuts together marked the most dramatic rate reductions in a
single month by the Fed in a quarter century.


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20 Feb 2008 8:04 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Before people have a go at me for cutting and pasteing, I'm just trying to keep the thread up to date.

Far from getting better, the credit crunch is spreading and worsening by the day. People need to understand that Spain does not live in isolation and is going to be very badly affected by all this.

We are not now far from the stage that banks will be unable to lend atall, even to customers with good credit. This is because banks are forced to maintain what is called capital adequacy ratios, which simply means that they have to have a certain level of cash reserves in order to make new loans. Once they are hit with sufficient losses then these cash reserves are drained and they cannot make new loans.

This is happening now and lenders are rushing to withdraw products and tighten lending so that fewer and fewer loans are written.

The crazy prices in Spain were a function of easy relaxed lending, that was the single most important ingrediant in this bubble.

Imagine what property will be worth once mortgage finance is not available.

I am reading more and more about "problems" with bank valuations. This is the clue to what is coming next.

 



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21 Feb 2008 8:39 AM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Now Alliance and Leicester profits down 34% YoY. Write down of $185m subprime assets.

Small fry compared to some, but it shows the pain is widespread.

Their response will be:

-higher mortgage rates
-smaller lending multiples
-higher loan-to-value requirements
-overall reduced mortgage lending

so lower lending will lead to house price falls, more defaults, less lending, house price falls, more defaults...

Bradford and Bingley's announcement was at least as bad, with the same consequences. Would you deposit cash in any of these institutions?


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21 Feb 2008 10:12 AM by Gillespie Star rating in Costa Calida Area. 608 posts Send private message

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If we can´t put our money in the bank, and we certainly are not going to put it into shares, then I suppose the safest bet at present would be to buy a bargain property and watch the equity grow over a few years.

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21 Feb 2008 12:06 PM by Smiley Star rating in San Pedro de Alcanta.... 2502 posts Send private message

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Or maybe buy some of the worlds natural resources that are in much demand (gold,silver, oil, grains, etc) - or turn your bricks, sand and cement into a work of art and sell it to the Tate Modern - oh no someone already did that.

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21 Feb 2008 12:33 PM by Gillespie Star rating in Costa Calida Area. 608 posts Send private message

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I´ll go with that smiley, what is the going rate for yellow smarties? ;+)

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21 Feb 2008 1:23 PM by Smiley Star rating in San Pedro de Alcanta.... 2502 posts Send private message

21 Feb 2008 1:35 PM by Gillespie Star rating in Costa Calida Area. 608 posts Send private message

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Well it was a surreal day was it not smiley?

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21 Feb 2008 3:09 PM by Smiley Star rating in San Pedro de Alcanta.... 2502 posts Send private message

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Not sure if surreal was how I would describe it - shame there werent any yellow smarties though

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21 Feb 2008 3:46 PM by Gillespie Star rating in Costa Calida Area. 608 posts Send private message

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Quote smiley - " shame there werent any yellow smarties though" --------------------------- Bugger, georgia obviously forgot to pay you your commission !!

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21 Feb 2008 5:40 PM by Smiley Star rating in San Pedro de Alcanta.... 2502 posts Send private message

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Would want more than smarties - lets get this thread back on track so no more speak of yellow smarties - should be in the food section

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21 Feb 2008 7:01 PM by Rixxy Star rating in San Pedro. 2010 posts Send private message

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I can get you as many yellow smarties as you want!

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21 Feb 2008 7:28 PM by Smiley Star rating in San Pedro de Alcanta.... 2502 posts Send private message

21 Feb 2008 7:30 PM by Rixxy Star rating in San Pedro. 2010 posts Send private message

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Just leaving school - short skirt, white blouse, the full works! What about you??

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