The coming worldwide credit crunch

Hi Derek I am pleased that you are proud to be English (as I am too and also proud of the fact I am part Irish - arent we all) "comes across" reads as "is" hence I wasnt alone in my interpretation of the post. 

Forgive me if I wrongly assumed you to be proud of the fact that you are half German - it was you that announced you were half German on your mothers side - it  was also you that told us you had 2 Beemers on the drive - whether one is 12 years old or not makes no difference - my better half in fact also drives a BMW and hers is 20 years old - have owned three myself over the years, plus Audis, Mercs and VW's  - it was also you that told us you have no mortgage on your house in the UK and that you "when you pay for your property it comes out of your disposable income" and that increasing or decreasing values were irrelevant. If I have misinterpreted any of this then I am eternally sorry but it was you that provided the info in the first place.

I am simply saying please be more circumspect when you refer to someone as "comes across" as boring - at risk of my being boringly repetitive, people are entitled to their own opinions and this is what the site is and has always been all about - we have lost valuable contributors in the past owing to someone making personal remarks of a negative nature which is all I am trying to say.

Night night xx

"we have lost valuable contributors in the past owing to someone making personal remarks of a negative nature which is all I am trying to say."

yeah & we all know who one of those was  "  We like to keep the forums friendly at all times" ... Justin's rules.

All I can say is I read TJ's posts with great interest and if he has any more info I hope he continues to post.

Alan

For Chelseadel

Click here    Go on, you know you want to !

Tim & Ruth (TJ222) please post some more.

Sorry guys been busy for a few days with arrangements for upcoming move back to the UK.  Adventure in Thailand coming to an end. We have been busy selling off all our stuff for pennies in the pound, everything has to go, apart from my laptop lol - got some happy neighbours. Most importantly we rescued a little orphaned puppy when we first arrived and have just found her a home. She was hanging around our house in Koh Phangan, with no one in the world to care for her, so had to take her on. About six months ago she was hit by a car and broke her back leg, I took her to the vet and he said there was nothing he could do as the break was too far up and needed a pin. The thais normally leave them by the side of the road , as there are too many dogs here. Muggins here was forced to fly her up to Bangkok from Samui airport, and then she travelled by private ambulance to the hospital 200km away. She was in hospital for 2 weeks getting the pin put in, and then they took her all the way back to the airport and put her on a flight home for me, all without any money upfront and having never met me in person. I TT the money to them - total cost for everything 200GBP. Thats one of the joys of Thailand.

Anyway so Trixie has been a bit of a concern, she is very soft and it would have been tragic not to find her a good home, but that is done now and I am very happy that she will be well loved and looked after.

We are having a leaving party, booking out an entire restaurant, 15 people two course meal just over a hundred quid. There is lots I shall miss about the place, but am looking forward to an adventure in Spain before too long.

I was surprised and pleased to read all the recent comments, I was not offended by Chelsea Del's remarks, I was prepared for some interesting debate as the thread heading is a bit controversial. The way I see it is that there are some dramatic changes going on around the world currently and its interesting to keep up with them. Property is going to be much affected by these changes. Don't get me wrong I still own property in the UK and think its great to own your own home and even an investment home if you are wise, but that does not mean that its always a good buy. If  like many, you have to push yourself to the limit to own a home, at a time when interest rates are historically low, and property expensive, then you can become a slave to your house and even end up loseing it as rates climb. Low interest rates are very dangerous, cos the price of property tends to adjust upwards as rates fall, the price you have paid is fixed, but the mortgage repayments can double with just an increase of 2.5points, when rates are 2.5.

What we are seeing currently is a global repriceing of risk for mortgages and other loans, and also riseing interest rates to try and calm riseing global inflation. The price of most basic commodities from oil to wheat, have risen dramatically in the last few years, oil and wheat have both doubled in very recent times. Its now clear that the new paradigm of permanently low interest rates is hogwash and we are in exactly the same cyclical environment. Unfortunately people recently have bought highly priced property on the back of the paradigm. Chancellor Brown promised us no more boom and bust, but personally I think he will go down in history as the architect of one of the biggest of all time.

The cut and pastes I can keep shorter and just posts the links, but I add them to add substance to my views and to keep other people informed. Anyway back to the sorting out!

Oh forgot to say

Thanks Auntie Em for all the glitter - made my day.

hI tj222,

Great post,you seem to live a rather interesting life!

You say wheat and oil prices are doubling,i might hang on to that last box of weetabix that we have in the back kitchen in the office then!.

You do have to be quite thick skinned at times in the forum but i am glad you are unfazed by previous comments.

Although in saying that we have to respect Chelseadel's opinion on certain issues,you seem to be quite savy with the markets and noticing that Chelseadel dispays a certain football club logo i would have to say he must be an expert on Boring!!! 

Georgia

Aww that was such a wonderful thing you did for Trixy, Tim. I felt the hairs on my arms prickle as I read what you did.

Smiley,

I couldn't resist!! i will probably pay for that post later.

More,

What Tj forgot to add to his story was that with his Trader background and in laying out £200 for vet's bills,travel cost's etc... was that the good home he found for Trixxy was the local deli,as this was Thailand trixxypoos would fetch a good price per pound!!!! turning a profit on his investment.

Georgia

Georgia

Who do you think I am Gordon Gekko lol

200quid - you can't give dogs away here, and  they don't spay them , so guess what there are loads.

Was trying to post a picture, but can't seem to do it durhh!!

ah,Gordon Gekko,there's a flashback.

Couldn't you give the forum members a bit of insider trading info,being a poor old Estate agent i may need to diversify a little in times to come.

Regards

Georgia

Atleast part of the recent trouble in credit and equity markets has been caused by the unwinding of the Yen carry trade. Confused - no its simple really. The Yen carry trade was a big boys game which consisted of selling Yen short ( ie selling something you don't own) and then useing the proceeds to invest in higher yielding assets. Basically due to ultra low interest rates you can borrow in Yen at 1% and then buy say NZ treasuries that yield 8% - pocket the 7% difference and hey presto free money.

If you do this with billions of Yen then you can make a great return, and this is what the hedge funds have been doing up to now. Unfortunately the plan has a flaw, and that is that the Yen currency must not appreciate too far against the currency or asset you have invested in. For instance if the Yen appreciated by 10% all of a sudden, then you would be 3% out on your money if you had to pay it back and this is exactly what happened. Hedge funds and investors reeling from thier subprime losses had to raise cash and sell thier high yielding assets and pay back the Yen. Its a bit like a fire in a cinema with only one small door. As everyone rushed for the exit the Yen appreciated by 15% in a few days and this caused further panic and dumping by fellow investors in a process that fed on itself.

To cut a long story short, alot of high yielding equities got dumped as the baby was thrown out with the bathwater. I have been buying up some of my favourite Canadian Royalty trusts at undeserved rock bottom prices. You can look up Canroys on the internet, but they are essentially Canadian oil and gas companies which are set up to reward the shareholders with most of the profits. They typically yield 10-15% and I believe have great growth potential, because one thing is for sure that globilisation is making the world desperate for energy. $100 oil is predicted this year.

The trusts pay a monthly dividend and you can buy the trust with a normal share broker such as idealing etc. My favourite is Harvest Energy trust which currently yields around 17%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=hte

Iam not an investment advisor and as such cannot recommend anyone to do as I do and make a nice monthly income. Shares can go up and down nause etc blah blah risk blah

Bimey!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

When i read your post i was looking for the "translate this page"button!!!!

When i clicked on the link,again,is there an english version?!!!!!

The answer i was looking for was "buy this it will make you money"! imagine your an estate agent for one minute it will soon feel natural!.

Georgia 

Smiley

Exactly the Krone dropped 8% in just two days as a result of the Yen unwinding.