The coming worldwide credit crunch

Post reply   Start new thread
:: New - Old :: Old - New

Pages: Previous | ... | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | ... | Next |

Forum home :: Latest threads :: Search forums
The Comments
08 Mar 2008 1:43 PM by Gillespie Star rating in Costa Calida Area. 608 posts Send private message

Gillespie´s avatar
Steady Roberto, I have applied for the job as office cleaner at georgias´ place.

_______________________

Business advice and consultancy - Visit www.calidain2business.com

Calida in2 Business - Spanish Property Clearance.

www.spanishpropertyclearance.com




Like 0      
14 Mar 2008 10:17 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

It gets worse and worse -

Fed and Rival Bail Out Bear Stearns
Friday March 14, 6:09 pm ET
By Stephen Bernard and Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writers

 
On the Brink of Collapse, Bear Stearns Gets a Lifeline From a Rival and the Feds

 

NEW YORK (AP) -- On the verge of a collapse that could have shaken the very foundations of the U.S. financial system, investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. was bailed out Friday by a rival and the federal government. The near-miss raised new alarm about the credit crisis -- and whether other big firms might be in jeopardy.

The rescue came from JPMorgan Chase & Co. and, in an extraordinary step, the Federal Reserve, both rushing to pump new money into the venerable Wall Street firm after its financial state deteriorated so much in a 24-hour period that it threatened to fail.

Bear Stearns stock lost nearly half its market value, about $5.7 billion, in a matter of minutes, and pulled the broader market down with it. The Dow Jones industrial average fell nearly 200 points.

If Bear Stearns were to go under, "it has the potential of bringing down the whole market," said Richard Bove, an analyst at Punk, Ziegel & Co. "This is the crescendo of the crisis."

"If Bear Stearns were to go under, "it has the potential of bringing down the whole market," said Richard Bove, an analyst at Punk, Ziegel & Co. "This is the crescendo of the crisis."



_______________________




Like 0      
19 Mar 2008 9:36 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Pound hit by rumours of HBOS liquidity problems

LONDON (AFP) — The pound was badly hit on Wednesday following rumours that HBOS could be in financial difficulty as well as speculation that the Bank of England may cut interest rates next month rather than in May.

Bank of England policymakers voted 7-2 to freeze interest rates at 5.25 percent earlier this month, minutes of their meeting showed.

The BoE's nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) opted to leave its key lending rate unchanged at the meeting on March 5-6 after a quarter-point reduction the previous month.

The minutes, alongside market turmoil and continued credit constraints, mean the BoE is likely to come under increased pressure to cut rates sooner rather than later.

Also weighing on the pound were labour market data which showed a smaller-than-expected drop in jobless numbers.

"The greatly increased risk of a 25 basis point base rate cut to 5.0 percent next month following today's dovish minutes, and softer-than-expected unemployment and earnings, is helping underpin euro/sterling" said Robert Howard, analyst at Thomson IFR Markets



_______________________




Like 0      
19 Mar 2008 9:37 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

WELLINGTON: The current financial crisis is the worst the world has seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s and the US Federal Reserve move to cut interest rates will not make much difference, the Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said on Wednesday.

"It will have some impact - it will do a little bit to stem the blood - but it's not addressing the fundamental problems underlying the collapse of the financial sector," Joseph said.

Stiglitz, who won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2001, is a former chief of the World Bank and chaired former US president Bill Clinton's council of economic advisers. He is in New Zealand on a lecture tour.

He said the Federal Reserve's move to cut its funds rate by three-quarters of a percentage point was "just trying to ease the economy down rather than try to address the underlying problems."

Stiglitz said the main problem was the fact that an estimated 2 million Americans were going to lose their homes because they could not repay mortgages which exceed the value of their property as house prices fell dramatically.

"As people walk away from their mortgages there will be more and more defaults - that undermines the whole financial system," he said.


_______________________




Like 0      
28 Mar 2008 7:42 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

For anyone thats still abit confused about the whole mortgage credit thing:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?view=DETAILS&grid=&xml=/money/2008/03/26/bcncrisis126.xml



_______________________




Like 0      
28 Mar 2008 8:23 PM by Marksfish Star rating in Vera, Almeria. 2624 posts Send private message

Marksfish´s avatar

That makes it easier to understand!

Mark





Like 0      
29 Mar 2008 8:04 AM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

This is written by the author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" an epic in the field of personal finance and motivation. If you have not read it I would really recommend you try it. It will change your way of thinking about working for money.

In the meantime here is his thoughts on the current sitiuation:

Posted on Monday, March 3, 2008, 12:00AM

Prophets of doom have always taken risks in terms of ridicule and humiliation. If you stand on a street corner holding up a sign that reads "The End Is Near," passersby will laugh and heckle. People will say you're like Chicken Little, running around telling people the sky is falling.

Yet after an economic crash like the subprime-induced one we're experiencing now, people always say, "Why didn't someone warn us?" or "What's the government doing to save us?"

Well, in May, the government will reward the kind of greed and ignorance that sparked the subprime mess with a $168 billion stimulus package. Instead of heeding the warnings of the markets, the incompetent and irresponsible get bonus checks. Small wonder the country has money problems.

Ignored Warning

As for "the end is near" proclamations, the Jan. 11, 2008, U.S. edition of the Financial Times published one of the biggest ones I've ever seen. Next to a photo of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the front-page headline read, "U.S.'s Triple-A Credit Rating Under Threat."

Unfortunately, not many people paid attention to it. I doubt that many people even know what it means, or what Moody's is, or why their warning is important. In overly simplified terms, Moody's was saying that the United States may soon become a subprime nation.

That is, the world markets will no longer recognize us as a financially responsible country, and we won't be able to maintain our financial and economic supremacy. In short, the end really is near -- from Moody's perspective, it's less than 10 years away.

The Empire in Decline

Worse, none of the leading presidential candidates even mentions this potential downgrading of credit worthiness as a problem. While I think it's noble that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton campaign for universal health care, I've never heard either of them mention the fact that we can't afford the health care we already have.

Do I think John McCain (or, in a long-shot, Mike Huckabee) would do a better job than the Democrats? No. I have no confidence in either party or the current processes of government to tackle this issue. The problems of health care and Social Security have grown too big and are clearly beyond our control.

All empires come to an end, and the American one is no exception. We've fought too many foreign wars, swept too many domestic problems under the rug, and paid for our greedy consumption with money borrowed from too many countries around the world. The end isn't just near, it's inevitable.

Bad Times, Few Solutions

In less than three years, the first of approximately 75 million American baby boomers will turn 65. No government can change that, so until someone discovers the fountain of youth the end is not far away. In a few years, the U.S. government will begin to operate in the red, paying for campaign promises made years ago by politicians who are no longer in power.

Do the math. If 75 million baby boomers begin collecting $1,000 a month in Social Security and Medicare benefits, that comes to $75 billion in additional monthly spending. That's a lot more than the one-time $168 billion stimulus package due out in May.

Why would anyone want to run for president at this point in history? Do they believe they can solve our growing economic problems? Or will they do what every other politician has done in the past -- simply leave the problems for their successor to solve?

Don't get me wrong -- I'm impressed with the people running for president. I love the fact that we have a woman, an African-American, a war hero, and a Baptist minister to choose from. I just feel the looming financial problems are beyond their control.

The Looming Gloom

Do I see doom and gloom ahead? Absolutely. But I also see tremendous opportunities made possible by the impending murk. In fact, that Financial Times article about the downgrading of U.S. credit worthiness only validates my current investment strategies.

Regardless of what our national credit rating is, people will always want a roof over their heads, food on their tables, fuel for their cars, and clothes on their backs. Instead of betting on the Democrats or Republicans to take care of me, I would rather count on my financial IQ to guide me through the coming years. I see it as my personal responsibility to invest wisely in the equities of strong companies, well-financed real estate, energy, commodities, and precious metals, and minimize my taxes.

The people I'm concerned about are the ones who are watching their retirement accounts dropping in value with the stock market, their homes lose value rather than appreciate, and their purchasing power decline as the dollar drops.

Always a Silver Lining

For these people I'm an advocate of financial education, but I also know that many of them aren't interested in becoming more financially astute. So instead, I recommend that they buy silver coins, as long as silver is under $25 an ounce. Today, silver is cheap and easy to acquire and manage, while real estate and businesses are both management-intensive; silver requires no management, expect for a safe storage place. In addition, the iShares silver ETF (SLV) is convenient.

Silver is consumed in many industries, and it's reported that the world has less than a 10-year supply of it left. That's why I believe silver is currently one of the best investment opportunities there is -- even for people with limited financial training.

Even if the end is near, there's always a silver lining.



_______________________




Like 0      
29 Mar 2008 6:31 PM by Roberto Star rating in Torremolinos. 4551 posts Send private message

Roberto´s avatar
Damn. Got it wrong again then? Should've bought a silver bracelet, instead of the gold one?

_______________________

 

"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please"

Mark Twain

 

 

 




Like 0      
29 Mar 2008 6:58 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Roberto

No I think you got it right. Despite hsitory showing that silver tends to outperform gold in financial meltdowns, the problem with silver is its one fiftieth of the price. Therefore you would have had to buy one of those chains that the rapper gangsters wear around a kilo before you would have bought enough. I don't know about you but I ahve always felt they look a bit silly. Thats the chain as well as the gangster rappers that is.

The other problem is that silver attracts vat and capital gains, whereas gold coins of the realm ie Sovereigns are still legal tender so by law are exempt form both CGT and VAT.

Its definatly time to do what the Indians etc do and start buying something of real value that you can hold in your paw or wear and noone can suddenly devalue.



_______________________




Like 0      
29 Mar 2008 7:06 PM by Roberto Star rating in Torremolinos. 4551 posts Send private message

Roberto´s avatar

Interesting, too, that the most valuable items on Antiques Roadshow always seem to be the American Indian artifacts. Maybe wigwams could be the new "emerging property market"? But you were perhaps referring to Asian Indians? 

Have a good weekend, TJ.



_______________________

 

"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please"

Mark Twain

 

 

 




Like 0      
29 Mar 2008 7:15 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

You too Roberto.

_______________________




Like 0      
31 Mar 2008 6:42 PM by Smiley Star rating in San Pedro de Alcanta.... 2502 posts Send private message

Smiley´s avatar
One of the most prolific and historically innovative lenders for the non resident market in Spain has re priced all their products as of today and increased the margin over Euribor by about 0.25%. Interestingly they had introduced more aggressive pricing last month but in the light of what has happened in the last month or so they have taken the view that if anyone wishes to borrow their money they are going to make them pay for it. Currently on interest only rates at 70% loan to value chargeable rate is Euribor plus 1.5% - on speaking to them they seem almost as if they are not too keen to lend in the current climate. There are still lenders out there with more competitive pricing but this could be the writing on the wall - watch this space!!

_______________________

Smiley - patrick@marbellamortgages.com  www.marbellamortgages.com   www.comparetravelcash.co.uk




Like 0      
31 Mar 2008 7:16 PM by Roberto Star rating in Torremolinos. 4551 posts Send private message

Roberto´s avatar

An article in today's Town Crier (Costa del Sol freebie) mentions a report from a consultancy firm, on the residential tourism market on the CDS. It claims it can now take more than 6 years to sell a flat here!

Although I'm no longer a sceptic (thanks TJ, I'm a convert!), I really do wonder at reports like this. Is this just crystal ball stuff, or are we supposed to believe that some people have actually had their property on the market since 2002? Hello?

Like I said, I'm a believer now, this credit crunch/recession is for real, but this kind of reporting surely only serves to add fuel to the fire? Perhaps Juan Carlos was wrong to tell Comrade Chaves to shut up. Perhaps he should take a leaf out of his book and start censoring the press too!



_______________________

 

"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please"

Mark Twain

 

 

 




Like 0      
31 Mar 2008 7:59 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Roberto

I read somewhere recently 4 years. I thought to myself if it takes longer than 1 year or so its basically unsellable at that price. Also 4 years ago was boom time, so I'm not sure where they get these stats from.

I read a piece in Sur in English over the w/e and it had lots of depressing reading along the lines of the free fall article posted by Justin. Also stating something that I predicted a year ago and that was that there would be a boom in renting and subsequent oversupply and price drops.

Anyone looking for a bargain wants to wait "til theres blood in the streets". I rekon this will be around early to late 2009.



_______________________




Like 0      
31 Mar 2008 8:11 PM by Roberto Star rating in Torremolinos. 4551 posts Send private message

Roberto´s avatar

Blood in the streets, eh? I'm off to bag myself a bargain in Tibet, then

I popped into a local REA the other day to check out an apparent bargain intheir window - a studio near the beach for 67,000 euros (that's very cheap for Torremolinos, by the way). Mr.REA started by saying it was small - very small, in fact, only 20 sq.m! he then said "well, actually, it's 15 sq.m with a 5 sq.m store room next to it!

Bargain, my a*se! I can wait 'til 2009! 



_______________________

 

"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please"

Mark Twain

 

 

 




Like 0      
31 Mar 2008 8:47 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Blood in the streets is a stockmarket expression that is used when there is mass panic and prices after falling for a long time suddenly drop off a cliff as everyone gives in at the same time. The prices get to levels that noone had dreamed of, giveaway prices. The problem is that there are so few with funds to buy all the bargains.

Wether its stocks or tulips or houses the pyschology is the same. People who have suffered for ages, grimly hanging on in the vain hope that "prices will improve shortly" suddenly all give in at once as their maximum pain threshold is reached.

Fortunately for markets once this happens, a real bottom can form and then prices slowly recover. The blood in the streets finaly flushes all the excess out of the market. the few buyers that are left don't know which way to to turn for bargains, literally spoilt for choice.



_______________________




Like 0      
31 Mar 2008 10:35 PM by Roberto Star rating in Torremolinos. 4551 posts Send private message

Roberto´s avatar

I like the sound of that - but how do the vampires know when it's time to start the feeding frenzy? Will you let me know please?!

Just one question, though I think it was discussed before - is housing really no different to other types of investment? Aren't the majority of property buyers in it for the long haul, buying a roof over their heads for years to come, rather than looking for a quick return on the investment? Obviously the buy-to-let market is different, and there are some who just look to buy and sell, but surely a large proportion of property buyers don't even think of their purchase as an investment any more than they think of their mortgage as a debt?



_______________________

 

"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please"

Mark Twain

 

 

 




Like 0      
01 Apr 2008 9:12 AM by Smiley Star rating in San Pedro de Alcanta.... 2502 posts Send private message

Smiley´s avatar
My view for what its worth is that all property buyers whether  a roof over their heads or not consider it an investment to some degree - hence in the UK so many people value their worth according to the value of their homes - whether it is mortgages or not.

_______________________

Smiley - patrick@marbellamortgages.com  www.marbellamortgages.com   www.comparetravelcash.co.uk




Like 0      
01 Apr 2008 10:04 AM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

"Just one question, though I think it was discussed before - is housing really no different to other types of investment? Aren't the majority of property buyers in it for the long haul, buying a roof over their heads for years to come, rather than looking for a quick return on the investment?"

Roberto

I think you have hit the nail on the head. Houseing WAS never meant to be an investment, it was meant to be and was for many centuries a place to live, a place to call home. Somewhere you bought for yourself and family to live and try and get on with your life.

Then can along the finance community and big government . In order to rescue past failed policies and ineptitude the FED and other governments manipulated interest rates down to unrealistic and unsustainable levels. This inflated first a bubble in the stockmarket (dot-com) and then when that failed all the money poured into property. Aided and abbetted by greedy banks more and more "inovative" (read risky) ways of financing were devised to enable homeowners to speculate and get in over their heads with property. Since the real underlying economy was failing, this provided a huge boost to the economy in the form of equity withdrawal. Literally hundreds of billions of pounds and dollars were withdrawn from property by people who thought that houseing was an atm and would keep riseing forever.

The party continued til house prices stopped riseing. Then suddenly the whole thing started to fall apart at frightening speeds. Since the economic miracle was really nothing more than consumer and government debt, largely based on houseing, the end was never in question, it was  just a matter of timeing.

If all these houses in Spain were bought as homes for people to live in, then why are millions of homes up for sale, are all these people suddenly living in telephone boxes? What has happened to their  homes?

The answer I think is that a whole industry was set up by the developers to convince the average person that he needed and wanted a second home for "investment" and holiday and as a retirement vehicle. Something to enjoy and make a fortune in the process. Not really a home atall.

Of course second homes for the masses, required massive amounts of debt, so the average punter didn't really own the new home, he just paid the interest. This punter by the way is the same person that now we are told is struggeling to fill his car with petrol, so what he was doing buying a second home is a very good question.

Of course while prices in Spain were booming it all made sense. Suddenly home ownership was no longer for a home, it was for making money and securing a wealthy retirement. Why buy one when you can buy two or three to pay for the first. Sadly for most this was an illusion.

Of course there were also unpleasant side effects to a home as an investment as I have talked about before. Namely a false boost to jobs and the economy and home prices pumped up to levels that made it unaffordable for young people and people who wanted a home but were on normal salaries such as nurses and teachers etc.

 



_______________________




Like 0      
02 Apr 2008 11:34 AM by Rob in Madrid Star rating in Madrid. 274 posts Send private message

Rob in Madrid´s avatar
Wow! excellent well thought out and argued thread and surprisingly given the length still on track. Still haven't finished reading the whole thing, working from back to front but I thought the need to add my two cents worth.

A few thoughts

TJ A little too gloom and doom for me, but still he's pretty much spot on. My own take  another great depression, no. but a return to stagflation again and a housing crash in Spain, absolutely.

The rest, most of the comments I read here (it CAN"T happen here as it's Spain and the Sun always shines) remind me of what Americans were saying not just a year ago. House prices can never crash, you'd be crazy to rent, you can never lose money on Real Estate. Don't think anyone in America is saying that anymore.

I'll post more latter on today, unfortuanatly some of us have to work, not everyone gets to enjoy tapas and wine on the beach, while watching the pretty girls walk by. as well I really really need to buckle down and do my Spanish. So work then Spanish than commenting on post

TJ a few links I'd think you'd enjoy reading from MMND

 millionairemommynextdoor.blogspot.com/2007/10/rent-vs-buy-hidden-cost-of-lost.html                                Rent vs Buy the hidden cost of buying

    and

millionairemommynextdoor.blogspot.com/2007/11/renting-beats-owning-even-in-retirement.htm                Renting beats Owning even in Retirement

Needless to say it's a very contiversal thread

And for everyone else

www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-foreclosure-story-what-does-the-process-look-like/                               From $130,000 income to forclosure





This message was last edited by Rob in Madrid on 4/2/2008.

_______________________

Decided after all I don't like Spanish TV, that is having compared both.




Like 0      

Pages: Previous | ... | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | ... | Next |

Post reply    Start new thread


Previous Threads

Code of Conduct. - 2 posts
Morerosado's 1000th Post - Congratulations! - 10 posts
'Evening' classes - 2 posts
Licence update - 11 posts
Completion - 2 posts
Mortgage valuations - 1 posts
ACCIDENT IN MARBELLA FRIDAY 17TH AUGUST - 3 posts
Be careful of promises from agents! - 10 posts
Legal or not? - 2 posts
New blow-in, the litter and the Car Hire Fuel Charges - 25 posts
Renting a property - 7 posts
child care - 0 posts
Cash Payments - 5 posts
Barry - 0 posts
Does anyone use an escrow service or similar for holiday rentals? - 2 posts
What else do we need for renting? - 11 posts
Shops and a Restaurant ??? - 0 posts
Viva estates watch - 11 posts
Long term Rental Cabopino to Elviria Desperatley needed - 1 posts
Which air-conditioning do you recommend? - 9 posts
Why the star system - 2 posts
BEACH RECOMMENDATION - CDS - 14 posts
POWER OF ATTORNEY - 12 posts
Ambasun - 23 posts
Help! How can i help pensioner with country house deed problem? - 0 posts

Number of posts in this thread: 716

DISCLAIMER:  All opinions posted on these message boards are the opinion solely of the poster and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of Eye on Spain, its servants or agents.


1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 |
Our Weekly Email Digest
Name:
Email:


This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse you are agreeing to our use of cookies. More information here. x