The coming worldwide credit crunch

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30 Aug 2007 5:08 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Georgia

Sorry didn't mean to lose you, the Yen carry trade is not really important (it is seriously important to hedge funds tho - esp. the ones going bust!!) but it explains why these companies ( the Canadian Royalty Trusts) are such good value at the mo.

 



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30 Aug 2007 5:52 PM by AuntieEm Star rating in Scarborough. 287 posts Send private message

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Welcome back TJ (and mrs TJ) ...

dont understand a word of what you are saying, but it sounds very convincing ...

i hope you are wrong about my fellow countryman (gordon brown) ... mostly because i still have a few years of my mortgage to run!

Good luck with the move  ... and remember to keep the laptop logged in and keep us up to date with the daily fluctuations

                                       



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30 Aug 2007 6:40 PM by Smiley Star rating in San Pedro de Alcanta.... 2502 posts Send private message

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Methinks you will be disappointed with Mr Browns performance rating

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30 Aug 2007 7:22 PM by Pitby Star rating in Andalucía. 1904 posts Send private message

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TJ, from reading your posts, how experienced and informed you are!  How refreshing to see somebody actually write what they feel about the market and not what they think they know!

We see so many people invest in the property market here in Dubai, who really have no idea at all about what they are investing in and what they actually own, it's encouraging to see there are people out there who actually look at their prospective investment in real terms - whether agreed with or not by others!   You obviously have a long term goal in view that you have planned for and that's real.

Freshest, and most realistic I've read about the market - in a lot of places in the world - in quite a while!!





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30 Aug 2007 7:37 PM by chelseadel Star rating in Welling kent & Las .... 155 posts Send private message

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Come in to my parlour said the spider to the fly.


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30 Aug 2007 7:45 PM by Pitby Star rating in Andalucía. 1904 posts Send private message

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So what are you saying, Chelseadel??    Anything interesting atl all????



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30 Aug 2007 9:05 PM by Roberto Star rating in Torremolinos. 4551 posts Send private message

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"........you can't give dogs away here, and  they don't spay them , so guess what there are loads."

Ditto cats in Spain. Maybe you'll give a good home to one of the many needy strays once you are settled here? I have read (most of) TJ's posts with a varying degree of interest, but the one about the little pooch left me with just this to say to him: I like you!



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30 Aug 2007 9:25 PM by morerosado Star rating. 6927 posts Send private message

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I like TJ too, Rob.



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30 Aug 2007 10:13 PM by Patty_1 Star rating in Hertfordshire. UK. .... 1062 posts Send private message

Hi TJ222,  I found your post's very interesting you are certainly very knowlagable I have a few shares, but not a great wheeler and dealer.    Quite a few shares I own the company Steria has taken over Xansa so I will be getting some money from them, I was wondering about reinvesting it.  So you have given me some food for thought.    That was lovely what you did for Trixie I hate to think how much that would have cost you in England.  It cost me £90.00 to have our cat  examined and an x ray and then he had to be put down,     which was so sad.    They do say the market is not very good but over the years I have made money out of it perhaps it depends on expectations.   Anyway very informative keep it coming Good luck with leaving Thailand our son is their at the moment I believe it is the rainy season he loves it their.    Pat

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31 Aug 2007 8:23 AM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Thanks for the supportive comments - I will try to keep the thread up to date for those that are interested. Those who are offended only need look away/not bother - head in the sand kind of thing.

Moreerosado - loved the picture - having owned both dogs and cats it just goes to prove that cats will always be the boss lol

 

Barclays admits borrowing hundreds of millions at Bank's emergency rate


· 'Technical breakdown' in clearing system blamed
· Pound falls as news swirls around money markets

Ashley Seager, Larry Elliott and Julia Kollewe
Friday August 31, 2007
The Guardian
http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,2159625,00.html


Barclays has been forced to borrow hundreds of millions of pounds from the Bank of England's emergency lending facility for the second time in a fortnight, it was revealed last night.
In a hurried and emotive statement after London's markets had closed, Barclays attempted to calm fears that it faces a cash crisis. Rumours had circulated all day that Barclays was forced to go to the Bank of England after the central bank said it had lent £1.6bn at its penal rate of 6.75%. It is thought that Barclays borrowed the entire amount.


Edward Cahill, the banker in charge of collateralised debt obligations at Barclays Capital, resigned last week, and others in his department are understood to have departed. The best known is John-Paul Parker, who is credited as the inventor of "SIV-lite", the controversial structured investment vehicles at the centre of the worries in financial markets.

Barclays has failed to explain Mr Cahill's resignation but the bank's claim that its potential losses from exposure to SIV will be as little as £75m has been greeted with scepticism.

"£75m is a bad month at Barclays Capital. It's not a resigning matter," one credit market operator said.

News that the Bank of England emergency lending facility had again been tapped hit sterling. The pound slid to just over $2.01 and to 232 yen though it held its own against the euro at 67.7p.

Money markets remained tense last night as the credit that oils the wheels of the global banking system remains all but dried up. Banks around the world have become reluctant to lend to each other after suffering big losses from the US sub-prime mortgage crisis.

Nick Parsons, head of strategy at nabCapital, said: "Every institution is potentially guilty until proven innocent. With incomplete disclosure and a lack of transparency, those holding cash are unwilling to lend it for other than extremely short periods and then only against the highest quality collateral."


The stress is showing when banks want to borrow for three months or longer. The 3-month Libor (London interbank offered rate) leapt from 6% to 6.6% in mid-August and has remained there. Traditionally, 3-month Libor is about 0.15% above the base rate, which is at 5.75%. Now it is almost one percentage point over the base rate. One analyst, who declined to be identified, said: "The interbank market is not working well at all. It's in a persistent state of dysfunction."

Diana Choyleva, of Lombard Street Research, said: "Our estimates show that bank losses could reach $300bn."



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31 Aug 2007 10:51 AM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

To understand money and credit you have to go back in history a bit. Traditionally money was always gold and silver, infact the silver content of British money was 92.5% silver until 1920 and the last silver content was taken out in 1947.

Why gold and silver? Well gold and silver has stood the test of time as a store of monetary value. Both are rare metals and very durable and the both cannot be increased in supply meaningfully. Gold and silver have been in use for money for thousands of years. Very early civilisations used grain and cattle, but would you want to store money as something that went moldy and died?

As civilisations became more advanced it became common practice to issue notes and coins that could be redeemed for gold or silver. In this way you could carry about a handful of easy to carry notes that had an equivilent value in gold. At any time you could go to the bank and redeem your money for gold or silver. Infact the Great British pound was valued a 3.5lbs of silver.

This system was called the Gold standard and as a result of it the monetary system was stable for many years.

Unfortunately due to man being a silly sod, goverments decided in 1931 to lose the gold standard. Why?

Well with the gold standard goverments could not mess about with money to their advantage. History had shown that governments can never be trusted with money. In Roman times for example the leaders would clip the edges of gold coins to create more money. This is the reason that coins traditionally now have bevilled edges.

So inorder to pay for marvelous things like wars and benefit programs, the US and the UK abandoned the gold standard in 1931. Then after the money became known as FIAT currency, which essentially means faith currency. Faith is pretty much all that is backing it!

Its not hard to predict the result of this move. The US and UK goverments were then free to print as much money as they saw fit, giving them what they call financial flexibility.

From 1931 to present the British Pound has lost 98% of its purchaseing power.

So when people talk about property going up in value, what they really mean is the loss in purchaseing power of the pound! Its an illusion caused by central bank manipulation of the money supply.

So what does this all mean to us the average citizen?

Well it means inflation and lots of it.

Ask the average man in the street what he thinks is the definition of inflation and he will probably say riseing prices. Infact he would be totaly wrong. The correct definition of inflation is "increases in the money supply above the corresponding rise in goods and services".

Riseing prices are infact the result or symptoms of inflation, not the cause of it. THE CAUSE OF INFLATION IS ALL DOWN TO CENTRAL BANKS INCREASING THE MONEY SUPPLY to their own advantage and our disadvantage.

If you have say 1000pounds in the building society or bank, then every year your money is being stolen from you, silently and secretly by inflation. The level of increase in money supply in the UK is measured by M3 a gov. statistic which is currently around 13%. So every year that goes by your 1000pounds is being stolen from you at a rate of around 13% a year.

This helps explain why most families have to have both husband and wife working when formally just one would be fine. Why pensioners can no longer afford to pay their rent or heating bills in winter and why the younger generation cannot afford a home. Also why we all seem to have to work harder and harder just to stand still.

Whats the lesson? The rich and powerful have always manipulated money to their own advantage and to the disadvantage of the working and middle classes. The only difference today is that they have to use more subtle tools.

If anyone is interested when I have some more time I can explain what this all means to us and how we can protect ourselves.

 



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31 Aug 2007 11:37 AM by morerosado Star rating. 6927 posts Send private message

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TJ glad you like the pic I made, here's more & a video, cats are very clever  



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31 Aug 2007 11:40 AM by morerosado Star rating. 6927 posts Send private message

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I know, I know

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31 Aug 2007 11:57 AM by morerosado Star rating. 6927 posts Send private message

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Oh ok just ONE more



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31 Aug 2007 12:02 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Morerosado

Brilliant absolutely brilliant. Life without our furry friends would be very sad indeed. Sometimes its hard not to love them more than humans. I left my cats behind with my Mum in the UK, hopefully we can take them to Spain.



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31 Aug 2007 1:50 PM by Rixxy Star rating in San Pedro. 2010 posts Send private message

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Gosh TJ - Im just about out of the head spin reading your posts. I do remember quite a few years ago reading a book about 'monetary' values in Holland (I think it was) where in the 16th century the currency was daffodil bulbs. The demand for bulbs hit a real high but then of course everyone started cultivating them and demand dropped!

I cant remember much more about it although the people starved for a while but it was a lesson to me at that tender age that too much of something is not necessarily good! Although I can think of an excess of a couple of things that would nEVER be too much!!

Georgia - get back to work!

Morerosado - love the pics!

All the boyz - football...!!!..... BAH!



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31 Aug 2007 2:02 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Ha ha Rixxy

What would those be - sun and sangria?

They say in LA that you can never be too thin, too tanned or too rich - hmmmm



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31 Aug 2007 2:09 PM by Rixxy Star rating in San Pedro. 2010 posts Send private message

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Weeeel - one of them is a certain ic-cream - the other I couldnt possibly post here in public!!!!!!!!!!!!!

But yes Sun and sangria as well!

When you and the misses plus cats get over if you get down our way we will have to arrange another EOS meet - they are great fun and nice toput faces to names - even if they are not really our names (you know what I mean!)

TFIF



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Quite frankly m'dear, I don't give a damn!

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31 Aug 2007 2:51 PM by georgia Star rating in Algorfa (As seen on .... 1835 posts Send private message

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Hey Rixxy,

how come everyone gets a nice message and i get "get back to work"?.

Just to put the spanner in the works here a liitle regarding the current economic climate,i have just had the best August for sales in three years,work that one out!!!

I have finally managed to land a member of staff who i have been chasing for months(ceMAP qualified and years of experience)to help with our workload(while i am on EOS).

It is quite reassuring when you hear of agents having to close down because they cannot pay their overheads and huge numbers of staff to see that there is still faith and trust in the housing market here.

There is a little price adjustment coming through in the resale market with people taking offers on their property and even the builders are starting to wise up,although people still seemed pretty unaffected by the bad PR and still buying for all the right reasons being in essence for social rather than financial gain.

Regards

Georgia

 

 



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31 Aug 2007 3:11 PM by Rixxy Star rating in San Pedro. 2010 posts Send private message

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Hi Georgia! Well - you get told to get back to work cos Im still hard at it and you just had a long luxurious holiday!!!

Yes I reckon the small guys will be the busiest and while it did go quiet for august here, this week has flown by with definate enquiries and properties coming on for sale now at a rate of knots! The hardest part was getting into units with holidaymakers sprawled around or owner in them - Im glad its gone back to normal!!

And still an equal mix here of investors buying but not for the short term, more mid-long term and more people coming out to live, so its the bigger properties in demand.

Hey ho - back to the grind, got 6 to load for auction!!! groan!!



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Quite frankly m'dear, I don't give a damn!

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