The coming worldwide credit crunch

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12 Jun 2008 5:22 PM by Smiley Star rating in San Pedro de Alcanta.... 2502 posts Send private message

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In the words of Dads Army - We're all dooooooomed - bring on the Three Horsepeople (even thats PC these days) of the Apocalypse - backpackers from China hmmmm thats an interesting thought - will they have left their cameras behind.

Best thing Rob is to buy an oil field - I know where you can get one for 600,000,000 USD - then you can take a flask of crude with you to trade for your coffee - mind you a flask of crude would probably buy you 10 coffees unless you wnet to Starbucks and then you would need two flasks!!

James Bond always has a strip of sovereigns or Krugers secreted in his attache case as well as US Navy pilots

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12 Jun 2008 5:32 PM by Rixxy Star rating in San Pedro. 2010 posts Send private message

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And pirates always have a gold earring to keep the hip out of salvage.

Roberto - just buy chocolate - everyone likes it and you can make money on it!!!

Ive just realized - my dad must be James Bond! He was always adamant (but changed that identity too) to have gold of some sort around, just in case!!!!!



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12 Jun 2008 5:38 PM by Roberto Star rating in Torremolinos. 4551 posts Send private message

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Again, I understand the theory perfectly, but I still maintain that the bloke in the cafe next door to me will not exchange a coffee for a bit of gold, from me or even a US navy pilot. I could try offering him my Dubai bling bracelet, but with so many look-see men pedalling their knock-off Rolexes, I just know he won't believe it's worth as much as his damned cafe solo. For God's sake, the man won't even accept a €500 note! As far as he's concerned, unless you've got the exact change, you can p*ss off. (That's why I don't take my morning cafe solo there!)

This all reminds me why I dropped out of Economics A-level classes. Theory is all well and good, but it didn't help me get a pint in the pub opposite the school. Somehow the publican didn't understand demand and supply theory. To me it was simple - I demand, he supplies. He just kept coming up with some BS about me being under 18 - whatever that had to do with it.

Joking aside, TJ, do you really think gold is the best investment at the moment? If everybody thinks the same, couldn't the same thing happen as happened in 1980? I mean, certain conditions now are comparable to '79, aren't they? I know, I know, look at the long term....but then, couldn't you say the same about property, or even the stock market?




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12 Jun 2008 5:57 PM by Smiley Star rating in San Pedro de Alcanta.... 2502 posts Send private message

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Have you looked at the way the price of gold has risen in the last year or two

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12 Jun 2008 5:57 PM by Gillespie Star rating in Costa Calida Area. 608 posts Send private message

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Garlic Bread...........................  it´s the future

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12 Jun 2008 6:10 PM by Roberto Star rating in Torremolinos. 4551 posts Send private message

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Do they eat garlic bread in Norway, then?

Smiley, I'm looking right now at how many coffees I should be able to buy with my bling. Looking at the recipt from the gold souk in Dubai in '99, I reckon I paid about £7.24 per gram. Presumably it's not pure (22ct rather than 24) and presumably I would only get "scrap" value (well, it is a bit garish, and does make anyone wearing it look like a drug dealer, or at least a complete w*nker), but I'd love to know what it would buy me now. From what I can make out, gold today is around £14 per gram. So, was this the best investment I ever made? And should I rush back and buy loads more?

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12 Jun 2008 6:43 PM by Pitby Star rating in Andalucía. 1904 posts Send private message

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Roberto, I'm out early next month, if you want me to pick some gold up for you!!  Although, you don't want to buy jewellery though - you pay per gram for the "craftsmanship" - buy tola bars!  Want me to check the prices for you????  How many coffees are you planning on purchasing????



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12 Jun 2008 7:06 PM by Roberto Star rating in Torremolinos. 4551 posts Send private message

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Craftmanship my a*rse. I never wear the damned thing, because (apart from making me look like a complete....) all the links are stretched to breaking point after a few years wear. Much better to buy 9ct Ratner's crap, I reckon! 
Tola bars? Are they anything like Toblerone bars? Just thinking about Rixxy's suggestion.
How many coffees? Well, according to TJ, we could be in this slump for a long time, so I'm thinking at least 2 or 3 thousand cups to tide me over (based on 3 or 4 a day over the next couple of years, shall we say?)

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12 Jun 2008 7:11 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

The way to buy gold for most people is to buy coins and the great advantage of UK coins of the realm like Soverigns is that they are both vat and CGT free. If you like collecting things as, you can buy rare coins that have what is called a numismatic value on top of its gold content.

Wether you buy coins bars or whatever you should be looking for its premium in percent above spot. Ie today spot gold trades at 870$ an ounce, so a Krugerrand might cost say 886$ or 2 percent above spot. The price above spot will be lower if you buy ten coins rather than one.

www.taxfreegold.co.uk  is a good to site to learn and to buy.

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12 Jun 2008 7:36 PM by sandra Star rating in . 812 posts Send private message

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Roberto!!!!!!!!!!!
Hope this helps .

http://www.gold-traders.co.uk/what-we-buy.asp
SCRAP GOLD PRICES

9 carat £4.25 / gram
10 carat £4.72 / gram
14 carat £6.62 / gram
15 carat £7.08 / gram
18 carat £8.49 / gram
22 carat £10.37 / gram
24 carat £11.21 / gram

 





This message was last edited by sandra on 6/12/2008.

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12 Jun 2008 7:54 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Hmm either those prices are out of date or they are gettinga good deal.

24 carat is 99.9%

11.21 per gram is 320gbp per oounce or 640$. Spot today is 870.

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12 Jun 2008 9:32 PM by sandra Star rating in . 812 posts Send private message

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 Hi TJ222,

You're right of course. Here's a better price for very little extra 'Googling' and there are probably even better ones.

 http://www.howcashforgold.co.uk/

  9 Carat £4.25
  14 Carat £7.19
  18 Carat £9.50
  22 Carat £11.83
  24 Carat £12.99


I just love your posts by the way. Always interesting, informative  and with up to date info. Thankyou.



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13 Jun 2008 12:01 AM by Roberto Star rating in Torremolinos. 4551 posts Send private message

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Echo that last thought. Although I may sound flippant sometimes, I really find TJ's posts interesting and they are very much appreciated.

So, thanks for that Sandra, based on that last chart (looking at the 22 ct) it looks like I could cash in my bling for about 63% more £££s than I paid for it 9 years ago. Question is, then, how does that compare to property, or other investments that I could have made? I realise the timing was critical, but just as an example, I bought a property in 2001 and sold it two years later for 71% more than I paid for it. Plus I lived in it and derived an income from it. Can't do either of those with a tacky bracelet.

I really want to understand this, but am still struggling a bit. Please help.

(BTW, I realise I would have paid over the spot rate for my gold, and would get well below spot for it as scrap, so I know the above figures aren't the best to work with)  

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13 Jun 2008 9:08 AM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Roberto

Depending when you bought it in 1989 gold was somewhere between 300 and 400$ an ounce. Today its hovering around 900. Silver  (my preferred metal) was around 4.5$ and is now around 17.

So if you had bought gold soverigns as I would have advised you could be looking at a nice protection from paper money and of course no stamp duty, cgt or vat. Selling costs would be perhaps 1% and its a totally liquid market, you coudl sell today 10million $ worth and get an instant quote without affecting the market.

Altho gold pays no interest, it has no maintenance costs either.

The problem with property in comparison is that in a highly suspect market like Spain you have to time your exit very carefully. Also if no one at the time wants it, your property maybe worth 500k on paper, but 350K to get a buyer.

As far as I can see now there is no liquidity in the property market in Spain. If you must have a buyer yopu might have to cut your price in half.

A huge liquid market exists in Gold and you can sell your gold online anytime of the day or night and get an instant quote at spot.

I am also able to derive a significant income form my holding, but thats another story.

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13 Jun 2008 9:21 AM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Roberto

Remember Gold is money, so it does not go up in price, what you are witnessing is the devaluation of euros or pounds against gold, Ie it takes more and more pounds to buy an ounce of gold.

I am amazed at the hidden costs of buying and selling property. With buying fees ie agent and iva and property tax and sellinmg fees and legal costs and then cgt if you are fortunate enoough to make anything, my guess would be that you would need to make 30% odd jsut to break even. Of course tahts if you can find a buyer at anything like your ask.

I calculated for me to buy a property here its going to cost me the same pounds as euros, so if the property is 200k euros its really 200k pounds. Makes it look might expensive in most areas.

BTW Sandra = thanks for the kind comments, whilst my museing may be controversial, my motives are sincere.

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20 Jun 2008 12:34 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

A Labour minister told families struggling with the soaring cost of living to stop being 'so bloody miserable'.

In an astonishing message at a time of rising prices and falling incomes, Transport Minister Tom Harris said that despite the escalating credit crunch, 'our citizens have never been so wealthy'.

And he claimed we were spending money on food and clothes in sums that would have 'made our parents gasp'.

His extraordinary outburst came on another day of desperate economic news:

  • Britain's biggest mortgage lender said it feared house prices could plunge by up to 9 per cent by the end of the year
  • Experts warned rising prices could push a quarter of households into fuel poverty 
  • Official figures showed a huge unexpected rise in public borrowing.

Opposition MPs said Mr Harris's blithe insistence that the nation should cheer up was 'breathtaking' when Labour had fuelled the squeeze on family finances.

They pointed to the scrapping of the 10p tax rate, soaring council tax, looming increases in road tax and recent figures showing pensioner and child poverty on the rise.

They are likely to contrast Mr Harris's 'cheer up' message with the downcast attitude of most of his Labour colleagues as the party slumps in the polls.

Tory Treasury spokesman Philip Hammond said: 'Tom Harris's breathtaking comments raise Labour's arrogance and complacency to a whole new level.

'Like his boss, Gordon Brown, he clearly lives on a different planet from ordinary hard-working families  -  who are struggling with soaring living costs, stagnant earnings and falling house prices.

'The short answer to Mr Harris's question asking why everyone is so miserable is, "Because we've got Gordon Brown as our Prime Minister".'


DID YOU KNOW?

  • Tom Harris earns £92,100 as a junior minister and claimed £153,862 in expenses last year. That's one reason to be cheerful!


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20 Jun 2008 12:39 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

But don't worry its a great time to buy a home in Spain 

Brace yourselves: Bank of England boss warns of low pay rises and soaring bills in a 'difficult year'



Millions of families must brace themselves for a gruelling period with finances stretched to breaking point, the Bank of England governor warned last night.

Mervyn King said they should prepare for the lethal cocktail of below-inflation pay rises, rising fuel and food bills and more expensive mortgages. 

In a bleak speech at the Mansion House, a key set piece in the financial calendar, he said Britain is facing 'the most difficult economic challenge for two decades'.

Chancellor Alistair Darling (left), the Lord Mayor of the City of London, Alderman David Lewis, and the Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King (right) at the Lord Mayor's dinner to the Bankers and Merchants last night

Mr King warned that:
Average take-home pay will 'stagnate' as family finances are battered by rising fuel, gas, electricity and food prices; 

Pay rises must remain 'low' to keep spiralling inflation under control; 

The Bank will take 'whatever action is needed' to return inflation to the Government's target of two per cent, a hint that interest rates could rise; 

The era of cheap mortgages is over and 'sharp' increases in gas and electricity bills are 'probably on their way'. 

He said: 'It will not be an easy time, and I know that some families will find it particularly difficult.'

 

In his first Mansion House speech on the same platform, Chancellor Alistair Darling echoed Mr King's warning to workers that big pay rises are a thing of the past.

 

The Chancellor said: 'To return now to inflationary pay settlements would undermine rather than raise living standards with a damaging circle of wage increases eroded by steadily rising prices. We must never return to those days.'

He also used his speech to dismiss talk of an imminent recession, insisting that the economy will 'continue to grow.'

But union leaders warned that their members will strike rather than accept a below-inflation pay rise, which is the equivalent of a pay cut.

Action would cause widespread disruption, with key workers across the public sector from the NHS to the civil service threatening to walk out. 

Unison, the public services union, is balloting its 800,000 members in local government, including social workers, teaching assistants and dinner ladies.

It is urging them to reject a 2.45 per cent, one-year pay offer, and to vote to strike

A result is expected on Monday. In a further threat, Unison said it is prepared to rip up an NHS pay deal which was formally agreed yesterday if inflation keeps on rising.

Under the three-year deal worth around eight per cent, 1.3million NHS workers will receive a 2.75 per cent rise this year, far below inflation.

Official figures showed yesterday that inflation has jumped to 3.3 per cent, its highest level since 1992, and is predicted to keep on rising.

The deal was negotiated on the assumption of inflation around three per cent, but the Bank of England predicts it could rise above four per cent within months.

In a speech at the union's annual conference in Bournemouth, general secretary Dave Prentis said it has the right to reopen the pay talks. He said: 'Our members in the NHS have voted to accept a three-year deal. 

'But be in no doubt. There is no blank cheque. I want to make it clear that if prices continue to spiral, we will be back. 

'This agreement will be reopened. 'We won't take no for an answer. If the Government refuses, we will ballot for industrial action. And that's a promise.' 

Yesterday the Public and Commercial Services Union said it is also considering balloting its 280,000 members in the Civil Service about strike action. It threatened a 'varied and imaginative' series of strikes, rather than accept a below-inflation pay rise.

General secretary Mark Serwotka said it is ridiculous to use the 'discredited' argument that public- sector pay fuels inflation. 

'The reality is that we have members earning just above the minimum wage and they see their food and fuel bills and their mortgage going up.'

Brendan Barber, general secretary of the Trades Union Congress, joined the calls for workers not to be punished for rising inflation. 

In a direct warning hours before the Chancellor's speech, he said it is unfair to use workers as a scapegoat. 'Our economic difficulties are caused by reckless lending by bankers and current inflation comes from higher oil, food and commodity prices.'

In a further blow for cash-strapped workers, a Bank report sounded the alarm yesterday about the worsening outlook in the jobs market.

It said more bosses are looking to recruit temporary or freelance workers, rather than commit to the cost of a full-time worker



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24 Jun 2008 10:04 AM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

It seems everyone is now aware of the current problem, central banks are in a no win situation. Thye can't cut rates to try and save the property market and jobs because of the inflationary pressures now everywhere. They can't raise rates to fight off inflation without tipping the west into recession.

But ............this was a problem that "they" should have thought about before going on a reckless spending binge with cheap credit.

Zapatero has a cheek, he the worst culprit of all with an economy highly dependent on a bubble houseing market has the bareface to question the ECB who are doing the only responsible thing. I imagine his credibility with the ECB just sunk to new lows, afterall its the ECB that will be forced to clear up his mess and incompetance.

From today's Telegraph.........


Albert Edwards, chief strategist at Société Générale, said the ECB risked making a grave policy error by tightening monetary policy just as the economy tips into a downturn. The eurozone's M1 money supply has actually fallen since January.

"As global recession beckons, the ECB clearly doesn't want to be left out. One wonders whether the bank will really carry through their threat to raise rates. If they do, they seek to halt rising inflation expectations by crushing the economy. Whereas many now see a real threat of a wage price spiral, we see nothing of the sort. The main threat over the next 12 months is deflation, which will be revealed when the current liquidity driven commodity bubble bursts," he said.

Sergio Marchionne, Fiat's chief executive, said the outlook in Italy's car market was now "disastrous". Registrations plummeted 18pc in May. He said early sales figures suggest that June is likely to be just as bad.

  • More on economics

    The picture in Spain has deteriorated dramatically since the start of the year. Premier Jose Luis Zapatero - who recently rebuked the ECB for failing to act "responsibly" - said yesterday that he was taking a pay freeze as he introduced a spending blitz to cushion the hard landing. He insisted that the stimulus measures were within EU rules. "We won't do anything that endangers the solvency of Spain," he said.

    The Spanish Confederation of Commerce (CEC) said textile companies were having to slash prices by 30pc to 40pc to cut excess stock. "I can never remember such an alarming situation for the textile sector," said the group's chief, Miguel Angel Fraile.

    Although Spanish banks steered clear of the US sub-prime debacle, they face a major headache at home as the housing boom deflates. Property prices have fallen 7.7pc over the past year according to government data. Prices are down 21pc in Rioja, 14pc in Valencia and 10pc in Catalunia.

    Deutsche Bank expects house prices to fall up to 35pc in real terms, with the purge lasting until 2011 before the massive overhang of unsold properties is cleared. "Spain is facing one of the most difficult periods in recent history. House prices are even more overvalued than in the late Eighties. The adjustment process is likely to take longer than in previous cycles," said the bank.

    Rising defaults are already starting to cause problems for the lenders. Jose Luis Olivas, president of Bancaja, says banks will need to roll over €175bn (£138bn) over coming months. They can raise money at the European Central Bank, but this practice is causing increasing concern in Frankfurt. ECB officials are probing whether lenders have issued low-grade collateral to use at the window.



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    29 Jun 2008 5:31 PM by Rob in Madrid Star rating in Madrid. 274 posts Send private message

    Rob in Madrid´s avatar
    Perhaps it's time to close this thread and start a new one?  this one is getting a little long (but very interesting)

    Although I don't live on the coast I can understand why someone would be seduced by the Spanish lifestyle. Like Brits Americans and Canadians (us) and unlike Germans I'm a firm believer in owning. I've been watching the property market in Madrid for almost 2 years and every time I look at the housing market I get discouraged. Even with a 100.000€ down payment (of which a third will be eaten up in fees and taxes) we're stay looking at a 30 year mortgage payment of 1500 a month (250.000€ mortgage). Even then you have to go way out of the city to find anything under half a mil.

    What I don't understand is who is buying these properties, certainly not the Spanish

    Average price for an apartment in Madrid is around 800.000€ (although in the burbs places can be found for more reasonable 400 to 500 thousand). Rents start at 1000€ a month and a good paying job you net 1500 a month over 14 pays or about 30.000 a year.

    Even with my Wife's (very) above wage I don't think we could afford a place anywhere near downtown Madrid.

    Any thoughts as to who is buying today?????


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    29 Jun 2008 5:33 PM by Rob in Madrid Star rating in Madrid. 274 posts Send private message

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    as an aside although I've been reading alot about inflation I personally haven't noticed it too much (other than petrol). Thankfully our landlady didn't raise our rent this year so with a COLA (cost of living adjustment) that my wife got we're actually slightly better off.

    sorry can't edit the font size in the previous post - eyes aint a youngin anymore

    This message was last edited by Rob in Madrid on 6/29/2008.

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    Decided after all I don't like Spanish TV, that is having compared both.




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