The coming worldwide credit crunch

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02 Apr 2008 6:34 PM by Rob in Madrid Star rating in Madrid. 274 posts Send private message

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Damm, wish I had been here right from the beginning rather than 400+ replies in anyways

While I find some of your analysis interesting I don't feel that this crisis is much different from the others we've been through over the years. The doom and gloom part is a bit overplayed. Will things be rough, yes, very, will the housing market in Spain crash, very much so. But another worldwide depression, very unlikely. One of the reasons why capitalism triumphed over communist system is the ability of the system to wash  purge out the worse excess of the system time and time again. Take the Savings and Loan crisis of the early 80s (memories a bit weak on dates -age you know - so correct me if I'm off) it threatened to collapse the US financial system. Took a massive tax payer funded rescue package to right the system, but we prospered. The dotcom bust, Japan housing bust, German reunification are other examples where the financial markets looked shaky ultimately saner head prevailed. If you look at Germany (since we moved there in 1999 and stayed for 7 years) It took about 14 years to work out the excess of the reunification. Or Japan, the housing/stock market bubble burst yet the economy didn't collapse. Neither has recovered some 2 decades on but for different reasons. While the main difference from the other is the fact that it's world wide rather than l

BTW I would have titled it not the coming, but already arrived worldwide credit crunch.

What I don't understand from the naysayers who say the Spanish housing market will escape unscathed is how can prices remain stable if there are no buyers? If there are no buyers than prices have only one way to go and that's down.




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02 Apr 2008 7:11 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Thanks Rob I will have a look at them. Thats in between watching the pretty girls go by that is.

In Rich Dad Poor dad - the author states that an asset is something that "puts money in your pocket" and a liability is something "that takes money out". According to him then your home is a liability, rather puting into doubt most people's claim that their home is their biggest asset!

Letting property however can be an asset, altho for many recently it is a liability (since the rent don't cover the finance let alone the associated costs of home property ownership and letting, as many are now finding to their cost).



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02 Apr 2008 7:13 PM by Smiley Star rating in San Pedro de Alcanta.... 2502 posts Send private message

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I am not sure anyone is saying that the Spanish housing market will escape unscathed - far from it - there will always be individuals that buck the trend but general mood of thought is its a one way street at the moment. That being said the prices were over inflated to begin with.

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03 Apr 2008 1:30 PM by Rob in Madrid Star rating in Madrid. 274 posts Send private message

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the biggest problem with house prices (Particularly around Madrid and Barcelona) is they are out of whack with wages. It's economics 101 that house prices have to match wages. It's a large part why house prices are expected to fall 25% in America. That much of a drop would bring them back in line with wages. I hate to think how far prices have to drop around here for that to happened. I'll post my thoughts on house prices in Spain on the other thread.

TJ the credit crunch doesn't bother me too much as were in the market for place some time and it will give us loads of bargaining power (assuming we can get a mortgage). What does worry me, and I'm surprised you didn't mention it.

Inflation

It still seems to be running under the radar for most people but he's a few scary statics I just came across. Strikes in Vietnam over 20% inflation. The growing middle class squeeze in China due to high inflation. And the real problem. Oil to hit $160 a barrel, prediction in Money Week, I usually don't read there emails as they are every crisis is the next great depression. But this time they are spot on. 160 a barrel of oil will mean well over $4 a gallon of petrol  for Americans. If anything tips America into a recession that will. It's not only oil prices that are hitting new records, commodity prices are only going one way up. Regardless of what the WSJ says about the affordability of the Iraq war Bush is pushing back into another Carter era of stagflation. In the short term inflation has benefited us. My wife got (never had this before) a COLA pay raise of about 4%. Since our rent didn't go up and I've cut costs with frugal living it went right to the bottom line. But down the road as prices keep heading up I'm going to be forced to increase the budget. It's a pain but tolerable. What worries me is we're looking at taking early retirement in about 10 years. If inflation really heats up, which I'm expecting, I'd have to question if we could really afford it.

That's what really worries me.

BTW here's a small tidbit for you. Shipping rates  in the Great Lakes is reaching record levels as the the lakes reach record lows, ships can now only be loaded half full or less, in essence doubling the cost of shipping commodities in America and Canada.

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03 Apr 2008 1:34 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Hi Rob

Thanks for your reasoned debate. I'm not sure I have said there will be a worldwide depression, the depression bit I think will be limited to the western world, particularly the US and Europe, altho as you say maybe not even a depression, but a certainly a severe recession. As you have rightly pointed out the strength of capitalism is its ability to purge with abandon and wash the excess and misallocation of capital out the window.

However as I have argued and continue to believe, the western world is busy trying to stop the free market at work. Everywhere you look the so called free market is trying to stop these forces of equilibrium. The US is probably the worst culprit in its action to rescue banks that have made bad bad bets and now should really take the pain. Here in Spain I think Zapatero is busy giving away subsidies to people to afford rents and to buy houses.

To turn an ordinary recession into a depression takes government meddeling and you don't have too look to far to see loads of that. Whats more I think we will see a lot more of it. It seems that the pain of recession is no longer a thing that politicians or voters can handle. If people understood that recessions are actually a good thing in the sense that they are the solution to bubbles and booms, then perhaps they would be allowed to happen.

My real beef is that the wealth of the western world is gradually being transffered east and this is being acelerated by bad policy decisions in the west. The arguement that we can let jobs and manufacturing go east whilst we concentrate on higher value activities would stack up if we didn't run such huge trade deficits. As it is we spend more than we earn and that is the proof of the pudding. Stockmarket and houseing booms have enabled us to continue as if all is rosy at home, when in fact these booms are hideing the horrible truth that our real standard of living is rapidly declining.

Spain has imho been particularly foolish to assume thats its recent progress in the last decade is sustainable.

The big unkown is wether the world and in particular the East can continue to grow with the US and Europe in recession, its dependance on exports to these countries makes its growth path very much in doubt.



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03 Apr 2008 1:43 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Rob

The whole damn thread has been about inflation. I have gone into the true defintion of it (not riseing prices), the cause (expansion of money supply) and the horrible dangers. I have talked about the dangers and pitfalls of FIAT money and the fact that the average citizen is being robbed left right and centre.

I have gone on about inflation til I fear I have bored people to death. Its my view that we are heading for hyperinflation, and certainly stagflation in the UK and Spain. The cost of living is going up at a rate ATLEAST double that of official inflation figures, the effects of that don't need much elaboration.

The bigest con from big government today is inflation as they try every means to hide the disasterous effects of their money printing.

 



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04 Apr 2008 9:56 PM by Rob in Madrid Star rating in Madrid. 274 posts Send private message

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TJ I'm sure you talked about it but this thread is 400+ replies long, I managed to get through about 3/4 before I lost my pace and gave up do wish I had gotten in at the beginning some excellent posts and thoughts. Anyways. A few interesting links I came across

https://secure.globeadvisor.com/servlet/ArticleNews/story/gam/20080223/RCOVER23
  Guys who had a gut feel for Risk, plus a bit of history of other financial panics. Contrarian investing is hardest when things are booming.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/22/opinion/22krugman.html?_r=3&ref=opinion&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin   Why we won't see a return to Stagflation but unemployment will be high.

I tend to agree with you that things are going to get bad here and in the UK. Some recent articles in Telegraph Expat says , as you mentioned, the credit squeeze is really starting to squeeze the middle class as unsecured debt starts to rise. Also buy to lets flats (rental units in American parlance) are in for a major crash. I don't see how Spain can escape as it's even a bigger bubble here.

An interesting editorial in the WSJ two days ago

The stock markets yesterday looked like an April Fool's hoax. Swiss banking giant UBS reported a further $19 billion hit from the credit crisis, doubling its write-down from last year, and yet its shares soared 12.3%. What's more, UBS also triggered a rally among other European financials, even as it became the bank hardest hit by the sub prime crisis.

It's not that the credit crunch has reversed basic investment logic. Instead, UBS's openness has fueled investors' hopes that the worst might be over. And that's as good as it gets these days. As investors reward the Swiss bank's efforts to come clean and cheer the departure of Chairman Marcel Ospel, also announced yesterday, it could be encouraging others to follow suit. Hard on the heels of the UBS news, Deutsche Bank yesterday reported losses of $3.9 billion. Its share price ended up 3.9%.

The subprime meltdown has eroded trust among financial institutions. Banks suspect each other of hiding bad loans, freezing up the credit market. Candor like UBS's is what will start to help restore that trust. In another sign of renewed confidence, four leading international banks will underwrite a $15.1 billion rights issue UBS plans.

The faster the credit cadavers float up from the bottom, the faster the market can be revived.

I tend to agree, a large part of the problem is that a lack of trust, on the other hand

`It's still early days,'' Watsa said in an interview today from his Toronto office.
``This is a very extensive credit problem.'' that's the guy in the first article

  and

`We're just rolling through mortgages right now, but we haven't gone through all the other areas yet,'' such as credit- card debt, commercial real estate loans and automobile lending, Watsa said.

Should prove interesting







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22 Apr 2008 7:33 AM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

I see our resident celebrity is in the news again. She is a bit doom and gloom these days tho.

I think this article demonstrates why its important to not overpay for your property and to rent first for a decent time, as circumstances can change. I feel truly sorry for these people who's lives are being torn apart by this bubble, and my motives posting here are to try and warn people about what is developing. There are lots of crooks stil about, but atlast it seems the message is getting across that property does not always go up, and its not always a good time to buy. Good luck to everyone, especially those trying to sell at the moment.

 http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/apr/20/expatfinance.houseprices

Plunging prices cause pain in Spain and trap desperate Brits abroad

Repossessions loom as the once buoyant homes market goes into freefall, writes Laura Latham

This article appeared in the Observer on Sunday April 20 2008 on p20 of the Cash section. It was last updated at 00:02 on April 20 2008.

British expats desperate to return home are having problems selling their Spanish homes due to plummeting house prices, the strong euro and potential buyers being put off by press reports of illegal building practices.

'We're amazed at how difficult it's been to sell,' says Maureen Renno of her four-bed apartment at Calahonda, near Marbella on the Costa del Sol. 'We thought it would go really quickly, but it's been on the market for over two years.' Maureen and her husband, John, both retirees, sold their home in Horsham, West Sussex and moved to Spain four years ago, buying their property outright for €325,000 (£262,000). Maureen, however, found it hard to settle in Spain and began pining for home and her family. After two years, the couple decided to put their flat on the market and move back to the UK.

Property prices in Spain had continued to climb in the time they had lived there, so they saw no reason why they would not make enough to move comfortably back to Britain. So they were shocked to discover that, instead of appreciating in value, their apartment was worth, at best, only what they had paid for it two years earlier. The glut of new-builds in their area was stifling the sales of older properties, as investors were seeking to buy off-plan. After several months without any interest, the Rennos dropped their price to €299,000 and moved back home. Now living in rented accommodation costing £900 a month, the couple are running out of savings. 'We need the money from the Spanish property to be able to buy in the UK,' explains Maureen. 'Without it we're stuck.'

The Rennos are not the only ex-pats who were lured to Spain by the prospect of a better quality of life and ever-rising property prices. For the past decade the country has been a magnet for Brits, drawing in those looking to make a fresh start as well as investors hoping to make a profit from the property boom.

However, in the past two years the dream has turned sour for some, with life on the Costas proving trickier than many expected. In addition, property prices have taken a dive, leaving those who bought at the peak of the market from 2004 to 2006 struggling to sell their homes.

Maxine Crooknorth, 38, from East Sussex, decided to move to the Costa del Sol with her six-year-old son in 2005 in search of a fresh start. She bought her two-bedroom, golf course apartment for €247,000, paying half of the purchase price upfront. She believed she would be able to comfortably afford the remaining mortgage and that the property would be a great investment. 'It seemed like a good idea to buy then,' she says. 'Everyone was saying how good Spain was, how cheap the lifestyle was and that property prices would go up. In hindsight, I bought at totally the wrong time.'

Within a year of moving into her new home, Crooknorth discovered that, as a single mother, she was not able to find work as easily as she'd thought. The cost of living was also higher than expected, and within months she was in financial difficulty. She struggled on until her only option was to sell her home. Nine months ago she put the apartment on the market for €265,000 based on the valuation she was given, but has since had to drop the price to €220,000.

'I'm finding it quite a struggle,' she says. 'But I can't really drop the price any more because all my equity is tied up in it and it's a lot of money to lose. I can't rent it because the payments wouldn't cover the mortgage, but if I don't sell soon I'll be facing repossession.'

Crooknorth thinks she may be able to weather the storm if she can find work through the summer, but buyers might still be difficult to come by. 'There is a lot of property for sale right now,' she says. 'Lots of people are desperate and there are some real bargains.'

It might seem as though the drop in the Spanish market has come out of the blue but, according to local agent Derek Blaney of Links Property, the current state of things should not come as surprise. He stopped selling off-plan homes three years ago when he realised the market was in a dangerous bubble and that many new homes flooding the market were illegally constructed. 'Four years ago buyers could put down 30 per cent on an off-plan property, sell it before completion and make 100 per cent,' he says. 'But not any more. Price rises have been unsustainable and more unethical practices were happening.'

The agent says that many of those who would have traditionally bought on the Costas, such as the retired, have been deterred by the huge price jumps and overdevelopment of the region. In addition, worries about buying an illegal property have all but dried up the supply of buyers.

Blaney claims that many people have taken on mortgages they can't afford and now need to sell: 'We advised buyers that if they couldn't afford to run the mortgage after completion they shouldn't buy off-plan. Now a lot of them are in trouble and we're getting more distress sales through the door.'

His experience is echoed by Inez Rix, owner of Direct Auctions in Marbella. She has also seen an increase in the number of owners desperately trying to sell properties before the bank takes them. In most cases valuations are out of step with the market situation and sellers don't stand a hope of reaching their target price.




This message was last edited by TJ222 on 4/22/2008.

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22 Apr 2008 8:27 AM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

From the same article :

 

Even handing in the keys won't necessarily set you free. Spanish banks are supposed to sell the property for the best price they can get. However, Rix says properties often sell for a quarter of what they are worth. This means owners may find themselves chased up for unsettled mortgage debt long after they think they are shot of it.

For buyers like Peter and Sally Shaw (not their real names), who bought out of a genuine belief in the market, the situation has pushed them to breaking point. 'We thought this house would be our pension plan, but now we're waiting for it to be repossessed,' says Sally Shaw. 'We made a mistake, we thought we could cope with the mortgage but we couldn't and now we can't sell either.'

The couple originally paid €355,000 for their three-bedroom townhouse near Fuengirola, about 25km from Málaga, in 2004. Because both of them were in their late fifties, they took out a 13-year mortgage, confident they could cover the high monthly fees of €2,900 and expecting their property to appreciate.

However, they failed to find regular work and their money ran out. Spain's housing market seemed buoyant at the time, so they put their home up for sale, but two years on they've had no interest, despite dropping the price by €66,000.

It's been five months since the Shaws stopped paying their mortgage and, with nowhere else to go, the couple are waiting to be given notice to leave. 'Then we'll literally have nothing,' says Sally. 'We have no family who can help us and we won't qualify for government aid either. I'm so ashamed to be in this position that I haven't even told friends we're in trouble.'

The Shaws' only hope is to sell their property before the bank takes it, but with buyers thin on the ground time is running out. 'I can't come to grips with what's happening,' says Sally as she fights back tears. 'I never thought we'd end up like this. It's very frightening.'

 

 

People tell me on this board that it doesn't matter what you pay as prices will always go up, and anyway its lifestyle thats important. HOwever things change, people are forced to move thru 1001 different reasons. It really does matter what you pay, imagine the "lifestyle" of these people stuck with a home they cannot sell and the mortgage eating them alive. Imagine their stress and worry, this market is a deathtrap and will destroy the lives of many before its washed out. Caveat Emptor!



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22 Apr 2008 1:17 PM by Rixxy Star rating in San Pedro. 2010 posts Send private message

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Hi TJ - (Im charging you for this posting hahaha) Ive been in the papers a bit lately. They all come to me as Im last resort I guess! It is all doom and gloom and quite depressing stories really.

Anyone buying should alwyas think they may need an exit strategy as nothing is held in stone!

Very difficult times and not helped by the banks scoring own goals. They lent the money based on their panels valuations, now these clients try to sell, find a buyer and the valuations are lower than the mortgage outstanding! Last week we had a completion withre the seller had to send over 15,340 euros to enable the sale o go through and clear his mortgage! Crazy

And then they wont lend to good risks either, so nothing moving unless you have a case full of cash!

hey ho!!



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22 Apr 2008 2:03 PM by Gillespie Star rating in Costa Calida Area. 608 posts Send private message

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TJ´s story about the Shaws´ is alarming.

Did they really take on a €2,900.00 per month  mortgage!!!! And hope to get work in Spain to repay it??????

They would have needed to earn at least double that to pay that kind of mortgage- and eat and live as well.

How many people do we all know in Spain who arrive and expect to earn €5,800.00 per month???? Should we feel sorry for them?

 



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22 Apr 2008 2:48 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Hi Rixxy

Not sure I can afford your fees

I am not going to add to this thread anymore as I'm sure even the diehard bulls must have the message by now and I don't want to add to anyone's grief. Needless to say it has kind of panned out the way I said more than 6mnths ago.

My best luck goes out to those still needing to sell. To those still wanting to buy I say rather you than me CAVEAT EMPTOR.

Glad business is good for you Rixxy, hope you still get time for some sun

 



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22 Apr 2008 3:29 PM by Pitby Star rating in Andalucía. 1904 posts Send private message

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TJ222, before you stop posting all together on this subject,  just wanted to say many, many thanks!!  Your posts have most definitely enlightened and educated me.  As mentioned before, we bought in Spain for the long term and, thankfully (even though we are linked to the USD here in the UAE and it's crippling us buying Euros!!) can afford to keep it and pay for it.   But, looking back at when you first started this thread, little did we realise the whole effect of what was happening.  Especially for those who remortgaged their homes to buy a second home - in Spain or anywhere else - who now find themselves possibly losing everything.

Thanks again - really interesting, reading what you have posted here.  Would really appreciate you posting news now and again though?





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22 Apr 2008 3:49 PM by VickiT Star rating in Bournemouth. 121 posts Send private message

I agree with Pitby, TJ, please don't go! Although I had my head in the sand at first, I've read your posts with interest and all you said is coming to pass.....



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22 Apr 2008 5:22 PM by Roberto Star rating in Torremolinos. 4551 posts Send private message

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I'm with Pitby & VickiT - please keep posting, TJ, your contribution to this forum has been elightening and invaluable. Many thanks. 

But I also have to agree with Gillespie - who in their right mind would come to Spain in their late 50's (or any age for that matter) expecting to find work that would cover a mortgage of nearly 3K a month?? Some people do seem to create their own problems without too much outside help.



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22 Apr 2008 7:05 PM by Pitby Star rating in Andalucía. 1904 posts Send private message

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Yes, absolutely Roberto!  Gillespie is spot on!  Who in their right minds would buy as they did and THEN end up looking for work, in their fifties too!!  But then, bank's to blame also - as is the current situation everywhere!!

You know me, I don't tend to sympathise with anybody readily, but I do - a little!! - with those who have been taken in by the dream and actually remortgaged their homes to buy abroad on the back of promised rental income, or increased market prices, etc.  There are some people who have lost everything due to cheap talk from agents and banks lending too easily.  And yes, I know, CAVEAT EMPTOR, but there are those who really shouldn't be let loose with their cheque book!!




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23 Apr 2008 9:31 AM by VickiT Star rating in Bournemouth. 121 posts Send private message

On a lighter note - my mortgage has just gone down again!  That's the third time since I came back from Spain in August - a total of 90 quid. Yay!!



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23 Apr 2008 11:52 AM by morerosado Star rating. 6927 posts Send private message

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TJ, we'd miss your seagull so much if you decided not to continue posting here, you know we would.



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23 Apr 2008 7:29 PM by TJ222 Star rating. 317 posts Send private message

Thanks alot guys, but I said I wouldn't post here on this thread, not that I wouoldn't post atall.

I still have lots of opinionated views, its just that I do feel for the folks who are in trouble in this market and I didn't want to add to their woes. I think I have made my point now, however the credit crunch rolls on unfortunately.

I think in particular my forecasts in the mortgage market are going to come true, so that should stop anyone naieve getting into trouble. I think we will soon see a minimum of 25% down, no exceptions. Then we are going to find out how important ezy credit was to Spanish prices. The only people who wil then be able to buy will be folks who have serious cash, this will reduce the number of qualified buyers to a trickle and they will have all the power. Gone are silly bank valuations or per sq metre vals, it will be what the more savvy buyer wants to pay or no deal. People with serious cash are usually, or tho not exclusivlely, a little wiser and with their own cash at stake and an obviuos falling market, they will want to drive a hard bargain. With so much supply its hard to see anything but dramatic falls from here.

One of the reasons the pound is so weak against the euro was due to the recent houseing report which admitted that prices were down in March 2.5% for that month alone - the biggest monthly drop for 15 years. This is a big blow for sterling as the market is aware how much the UK economy is dependent on consumer spending and high house prices. Infact the UK is starting to look like  a mirror copy of the US, something that I predicted right at the start of the thread. Keep your eyes on the unemployment numbers in the UK as these are critical.

Finanly good luck to anyone trying to sell here in Spain. I am told property is still selling if you are realistic on price. My advice would be not to hold out - I'm sure things are only going to get worse for the next few years.



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24 Apr 2008 11:36 AM by Rixxy Star rating in San Pedro. 2010 posts Send private message

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100% agree with you TJ - and the banks have closed the doors. Only buyers I am seeing are 2nd homers or holiday homers or moving here - like it used to be in the good old days in fact! Just a normal market - no reason to panic

Theres still more work then when I first came here 13 years ago so Im optimistic(ish!) Last few buyers actually had thet funny stuff called money - and dealt hard.

Some good prices now to be seen on nice properties, Ive been quite impressed the last few days - and a twist on the exchange rate - whilst buyers will have to fork out a bit more - if they are getting a mortgage they WONT have to, obviously, so its only on the excess bit. Things can be arranged to do a sterling/sterling deal for all or part of the money but also I am seeing further decreases due to sellers getting more for thie euro and a couple of spectacular drops too

So, not all doom and gloom

And its SUNNY today, hood down on the car woohoo!



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