Should there be a second referendum?

Ads - Why class one side of the debate as “ extremists” Mickeyfinn? That inflammatory rhetoric is misleading and inciteful.

You misunderstood me or perhaps I failed to explain my meaning very well. In this Brexit debate there is a majority of the British population on both sides who have a legitimate belief in their cause. I respect that belief whilst disagreeing with the leavers.

I believe these people should have a second chance to express that belief to parliament given all the additional information and consequences of leaving the EU not perhaps eith considered before or not taken very seriously. Clearly the UK economy is starting to struggle and a long recession is inevitable after leaving without a deal.

The extremists I refer to are a minority and if you use Twitter you can see who they are. Generally they are extreme right wing nationalists with an agenda unrelated to Brexit but use it for their own particular purposes. There are extremes on the far left of course but don’t seem to have much interest in Brexit believing Corbyn is doing their work for them.

Mickeyfinn you suggest...

“Clearly the UK economy is starting to struggle and a long recession is inevitable after leaving without a deal.”

Again not so black and white. Much depends upon which economic analysis you believe and over what timeframe, plus so many other factors relating to other trading deals and free trade agreements going forward.  

Current economic analysis has been flawed as has already been identified with regard to the previous fear campaign and what actually happened, which was predicted by an alternative economic analysis. All too little has been focused on this and has been dismissed without full evaluation.

Indeed there is the need for a far more open minded approach, without dismissal out of hand, as many  of those with closed minds who have been unwilling to even contemplate alternatives has proved. It is frustrating why this alternative analysis has not been examined in more detail by ALL politicians, as this is a basic starting point not only for Brexit but also upon which economic strategy depends.

Heres an article that explains a little more about the detail connected with this alternative economic modelling, which is a basis for further debate perhaps?

https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Alternative-Brexit-Economic-Analysis-Final-2-Mar-18.pdf

Baz

This feedback of impact on the UK has been made at UK Govt level ( albeit some would say not in a sufficiently forceful manner!) but was ignored by the EU Commission who preferred to stick to their intransigent agenda. The shock from the referendum result which reflected the anger and disillusionment has forced them to examine the status quo. But still they remain defiant in their ideological objectives for a federal state ever more closely linked to the eurozone. The UK are miles apart in this regard and some may state that they will never be comfortable to conform to a federal state of Europe.

Its far more complex than many are willing to admit and the tendency is to blame individual countries for their political beliefs and Govt systems which reflect their populations desires and culture ( and can be replaced by a fair democratic voting process more closely linked to individual countries). Many need to view this from a far wider perspective  and  then stand outside the box so to speak and see how such intransigence to reform at the highest levels ( EU COMMISSION) is playing its part in the proliferation of unrest. There are now for instance concerns as to how the build up of frustrations in other member states are to be effectively managed.

For instance Poland and Hungary have sought their own solutions by threatening the rule of law ( not retaining legal independence in their Supreme Courts) as they presumably saw little alternative given the perceived failure at EU level to listen and adequately respond to their own citizens growing concerns. This in itself is no solution and is an undermining of civilised justice which depends upon an independent judiciary without political interference. But these are the sort of radical solutions that are opened up when a ruling system under the current EU regime fails to listen and reform.

Heres another article that makes for uncomfortable reading in this regard, which has been compiled by a group called RECONNECT. More reading I’m afraid (28 pages!) but all part of an open minded requirement to review from a wider perspective perhaps?

https://reconnect-europe.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/RECONNECT-KochenovBard-WP_27072018b.pdf

Note

RECONNECT is a four-year multidisciplinary research project on

‘Reconciling Europe with its Citizens through Democracy and the Rule of Law’, aimed at understanding and providing solutions to the recent challenges faced by the European Union (EU). With an explicit focus on strengthening the EU’s legitimacy through democracy and the rule of law, RECONNECT seeks to build a new narrative for Europe, enabling the EU to become more attuned to the expectations of its citizens.

Bringing together 18 academic partner institutions from 14 countries, RECONNECT focuses on key policy areas: economic and monetary governance, counter-terrorism, international trade and migration.)

This message was last edited by ads on 10/12/2018.

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If ever there was an example of how the EU Commission fails to represent the interests of 500 million EU citizens and prioritises industry ( in this instance the German and Italian car industry) over citizens best interests, then listen to this EU parliamentary debate re.deisel emissions ( in particular the first two speakers).

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-parliaments-39483712

Apparently the Commission were forewarned of problems as long ago as 2008/9 but chose to turn a blind eye to the ramifications, with all the consequential health ramifications, let alone failure to compensate those citizens compromised by these "defeat devices".

Shameful.

What a mess. Seems Theresa is toast and Boris will be this year’s Santa. That means probably no deal and the EU are having a right laugh at all this and the UK. I suppose no matter which way you voted it was a clear in or out vote and we are getting exactly what we voted for. Many years of grief to come but we may as well get on with what we voted for and the hole we have dug for better or worse.

Considering the mess we are in just trying to get out and all the 'What will happen when we leave' nonsense, which as we all know even thats not for sure or 100% true, why not just do what Nigel Farrage said just leave no deal just leave, the worse that could happen is what? the EU would fret a little and make all sorts of noises, but at the end of the day honestly what could they do, probably threaten us with this that or the other which we ignore.

It's a massive mess right now so could full stop leaving make it any worse, after all we did vote to leave, I don't remember voting for any deals or promises on the what will come future.

As you can see I know no more then the print here.

The British people made their bed and now it’s time to lie in it. The problem is that 75% of MPs never wanted to leave the EU and MPs don’t like being told what to do by the sheep. So much for democracy. 

Quite a few people like myself voted for the Conservative party in the last general election... because they had included in the conservative Manifeso that we the British public would get a vote on staying in or out  the EU ...so that means people like myself have already voted  twice / once in the general election & again in the Referendum ...the IN crowd have had the same democratic choice as myself and lost twice so what is the problem with these Remainers ....do they want to see blood on the streets of the UK...the same as the French are seeing ...along with riots burning cars / buildings for God sake get on with your life and accept the democratic decision...we are leaving the EU ...if you wanted to stay in the EU and block our chance to have a IN /OUT referendum ..you should have voted for the likes of Labour at the last general election...and I bet you did not (think about it ).

Result of “ no confidence vote”  In favour of Theresa May votes for 200 .....against 117

Britain now has a lame duck prime minister, a third of her own party voted against her. The deal she has cobbled together will now be presented to parliament and defeated. The EU will not make further concessions.

That leaves a choice between leaving without a deal or a second referendum. Cancelling Brexit is not an option, neither is a general election since the Tories and DUP won’t risk a Corbyn government.

Faced with these minimal choices a second referendum looks to me the only viable option. It is necessary in my view to politically try and reunite the deeply divided country. Leaving without a deal is catastrophic on all levels.

Many people have changed their minds about leaving. More information has been available about the negative consequences and the campaign was flawed with lies and half-truths. More young people who will be most affected by Brexit have become eligible to vote

If the result of a second referendum is still to leave the EU remainers I believe would accept it. A reasonable deal to leave the EU would then be supported in the House of Commons by MP’s. These are positive objectives worth achieving.

Thank you, a very interesting opinion from a remainder, but what are you asking members to do? What is the objective of the post?

The objective of the post is the same as every other post's - shering his/her opinion.

What is shering?

Britain has a prime minister, having a new one would do what?  so the new person fails, what then chuck them out also, get another new one in place, the EU have said no more deals, no more changes, no more concesions, it has now really come to leave meaning leave with no deal, what is the point of leaving with many EU rules still in place which for all we know the EU could change them willy nilly as and when they liked to, it's been proved that the UK does what it's told no questions asked, this is just another way of stuffing the UK.

The whole thing has made us the laughing stock of the world and the EU has made it impossible for anyone to leave, which actually shows you what the EU is reall all about...A collection of gangsters sitting around a table wonrking out how to screw more money for their pot out of the one's who pay the most....Al Capone would have been proud to learn some lessons from this bunch.

If the conservative government had lost last night's vote of confidence...then the next step was a general election without a doubt the Labour party and the SNP ( 2 party's that hate each other )   would have formed a alliance to force a Labour/SNP government into power...if this ever happens it would not be as simple matter of to canceling the Brexit as you think ..both these party's did not want a Referendum on leaving the EU ... they would need to have another IN / OUT vote ...and if the vote was still to leave what would the so called alliance's next step be ...as they would now be in charge of a country that does not want to be part of the EU .

Let’s just get out and be done with it. Tell the EU Mafia to sod off.

The EU have become a dictatorship...with the power to overthrow any of its 27 members governments ...now we have the opportunity to leave the cartel ..we should put our best foot forward and start running.

Has anyone supporting the remain camp looked at the economic alternative analysis for a no deal scenario as identified in a previous posting? If so perhaps they could identify in detail their intellectual arguments going forward.

https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Alternative-Brexit-Economic-Analysis-Final-2-Mar-18.pdf

What is the point of debating if the remain supporters stubbornly refuse to consider an alternative economic model that previously predicted the outcome shortly following the vote to leave which proved correct,  and now has made predictions for a no deal scenario?

Are they not prepared to review this analysis rather than dismiss it out of hand?

Without retaining an open mind in this regard it seems somewhat pointless exercise to debate the economic issues going forward....

The bickering between the leave and stay will never end. The majority voted out and out did not include a deal or pick and choose which bits. The remainders are like the sulking school kid taking his ball home. The public are sick of the lot, just get out and be done. Half the EU countries are skint lame ducks anyway.

Remainer 

EU vs UK Gains & Losses. It appears that the breakdown of talks would be positive overall for the UK to the tune of a one-off gain of £38 billion on the EU budget, plus £180 billion from bringing forward the non-budgetary Brexit gains, plus £433 billion from EU tariff revenue, some £651 billion in all. For the EU it would mean a one-off loss of £38 billion in financial settlement, plus another one-off loss of £36 billion in terms of trade gain, plus the permanent loss due to paying UK tariff revenue of £433 billion. So, plus £651 billion for the UK versus minus £507 billion for the EU. For the UK, a breakdown would be a short term nuisance but a substantial economic gain; for the EU it is both - a short term nuisance and a substantial economic loss (see EFT, The Numbers Behind No Deal).

Indeed, the above economics suggest that a credible threat by the UK to leave in the face of an unattractive trade deal would be a powerful motivating factor for the EU to agree an attractive deal.

Good post Ads. Will read it all later, for now a short snippet above from Ads post.

If I catch the drift of this short piece it's easy to see what I have said all along...

The EU can't afford, and can't have the UK leave.