Who should be next UK PM?

Brexit Party and Conservative Party defeat in Peterborough changes everything.  If those two could not score in a place where the referendum vote was 62/38 for leave it shows the mood has changed from two perspectives:

1. Local issues are more important than Brexit to the general public and the Tory record in that area is dismal, hence why May trying to throw tens of billions to us in the last moments has failed, and

2. The feeling about Brexit itself has shifted.   Not as much as remain wants or boasts, but the shift is readily apparent and measurable.  Only a fool would claim it is a big margin either way.  So the country could not be more divided.

Boris Johnson remains the front runner, but he is also more likely than any candidate to change his mind.   There is nothing he won't say to get what he wants and nothing he won't betray to hold onto power once he has it.

Tory Brexiters should be very, very worried...

A few further observations...

A little ironic that  austerity was EXACERBATED as a consequence of a labour government’s actions and strategy that left the country in a terrible economic state following the financial crash , that their failure under Blair  to control migration in an effective manner ( contrary to other member states at that time) led to even greater pressure on the need to control the country’s debt,  all of which was subsequently and clinically IGNORED by the EU when requesting a more realistic approach.

The  swift impact on infrastructure, housing, social services, schooling, etc and most concerning the impact on cohesion and division,  left a government  struggling to balance austerity with a massive debt.

How the EU establishment can ignore such factors without effective comprehension and strategy to respond in timely fashion without understanding the inevitable growth in division and disillusionment beggars belief. Hence the continuing desire to leave the  EU who still refuse to recognise uncomfortable truths and a growing need for swift reform.

Many lessons to be learned not only at country level but also at EU level if growing disillusionment with those responsible for devising effective  and realistic strategies are to be addressed.

 Not so simple as some would suggest .....talk of  tribal politics and playing for power only further alienates the voting public which only leads to support for an alternative approach where citizens  concerns are effectively addressed and FOLLOWED THROUGH.

I don't believe the problems the UK has had in the past is so much to do with the EU, and I don't believe they ignored us,  they tried it on and won because no one in the UK would say otherwise, the problem has laid fair and square on our leaders, namely the one's who had the power to tell the EU band of crooks 'No thats not good for the UK so we wont do that', Cameron proved this when he went over to get some sort of new deal and came back with, probably less then he went with for all we know.

Who ever the next PM is has to be able to show the EU that we won't put up with any of the past rubbish we took, chances are that wont happen because the next PM wont upset the EU due to hopefully furthering their own careers down the line, and I cant see anybody in the latest 12 who now want the job having back bone when it comes down to the nitty gritty.

“ Trying it on” is a form of selective and purposeful ignoring!

We need strong and able negotiators for ALL treaty arrangements going forward and a PM equally strong and willing to ensure that this reflects the needs of the nation.

P.s. Here’s an educational article that demonstrates some of the complexities relating to negotiating objectives and why it’s essential that the UK has highly intellectually able and resilient negotiators...

https://brexitcentral.com/what-do-the-american-negotiating-objectives-mean-for-a-future-us-uk-trade-deal/

the financial crash didn't cause the tories to inflict austerity.....it was all Labour's fault !....you couldn't make it up

Wrong ....it was the measures taken FOLLOWING the crash that exacerbated austerity....

wrong...it was a political choice of the tories who saw an opportunity to cut public spending and direct the UK into a low wage economy

Again not so simple I’m afraid.

Heres another educative article ( and ironic since it comes from trade unions) that goes some way to explain the complexities associated with lowering of wages

http://www.tuaeu.co.uk/the-strange-death-of-social-europe/

to quote a little from their analysis....

“Following the accession of eastern European states to the EU, migrant labour has been rapidly moving west while capital and manufacturing jobs are moving east.

While western European countries experiencing a large influx of migrant labour, eastern European states are suffering population falls and an inevitable brain drain, leading to a loss of skilled labour and young people as well as an uncertain future of underdevelopment.

In more developed member states, wages have been under pressure in many sectors in a process known as ‘social dumping’, as cheap foreign labour replaces the indigenous workforce and trade union bargaining power is severely weakened.

Even the pro-EU Irish Congress of Trade Unions is demanding measures to protect particularly unskilled workers where social dumping is threatening jobs.

“It is an iron law of economics that an abundant supply of labour pushes down its cost. It is insulting people’s intelligence to pretend otherwise,” it said in a statement.

The promises of “social Europe,” launched 30 years ago are being replaced by the realities of “anti-social Europe” with attacks on workers’ rights across Europe driven by the EU institutions.

Ultimately, destroying the concept of a permanent job with rights and replacing it with precarious employment while exploiting a reserve army of cheap labour is the core structural adjustment strategy of the EU.

That is no future for workers or the labour movement. Vote against anti-social Europe, vote to get out.”

So many factors to consider before we all make bold generalisations.... and why it’s essential that we all remain willing to retain open minds when making judgements associated with exiting the EU ....in other words be willing to look at all aspects from a wide perspective and not just stick to political mantra.

It's not an "educatative" article at all. It's from an obsessive, anti-EU website which frothes at the mouth with every sentence.

Did you really expect a site called "Trade Unionists Against the EU" to be completely unbiased and look at both sides of the argument? No chance. Same as looking at the CBI website or the Better In website and expecting it to give you negative aspects of the EU which they don't. 

Your bit about willing to retain open minds seems a bit hollow after linking to these things.Nothing open minded about it at all.

Misunderstanding I’m afraid...that article was not meant to be an article reviewing both sides of the debate but a trade union’s perspective, which tried to explain their own concerns relating to first hand impact on wages etc.

By open minded I meant a willingness to review articles from many perspectives, sometimes not necessarily from ones own personal political persuasion but at least providing a wider perspective of various concerns which have proved genuine concerns for all too many.

Sadly to dismiss these concerns and analyses out of hand implying they don’t warrant review tends to imply an unwillingness to consider many vulnerabilities that have arisen as a consequence of EU strategy and policy making. 

The constant sniping at the EU makes you wonder about the good points.

Part 1: What Europe can be proud of :

1. The EU has been keeping the peace for 70 years

2. We are Europe: We have Europe Day, a European flag and the Ode to Joy

3. Only together can Europe be a force in a globalised world

4. We argue and we rally round -- just like one big family

5. European values are in our genes: The EU inspires others in the world

6. The EU is a Europe of participation

7. Europe is the world’s most popular holiday region

Part 2: The EU strengthens the economy and fosters prosperity

8. Europe is not the Wild West, but a social market economy

9. The EU fosters growth, employment and prosperity

10. The EU supports economic growth through Regional and Structural Funds

11. The EU promotes fair trade with other parts of the world

12. The euro is a stable currency that offers many advantages

13. Europe stands by its farmers

Part 3: The EU ensures competition and keeps big companies in check

14. From screens to lorries: The EU takes action against cartels

15. Europe fights for fair taxation

16. The EU supervises the banks

Part 4: The European Union protects consumers

17. The EU secures the rights of passengers on journeys — by air and by rail

18. The EU reduces the number of road deaths

19. The EU helps consumers to exercise their rights

20. Europe makes buying online safer

21. The EU guarantees the rights of buyers if a product is defective

22. Europe protects the savings of its citizens

Part 5: The EU lowers the cost of living

23. The single market brings down prices

24. Europe cuts the cost of telephone calls

25. The EU gives you wings: airfares in free fall

26. The EU lowers bank charges and the cost of using credit cards

27. The EU monitors transparency in the market for medicines

Part 6: The EU is committed to ensuring healthy food and a clean environment

28. The EU makes sure we have healthy food

29. The EU prevents ‘food piracy’ and protects regional specialities

30. The EU ensures clean water for drinking and bathing

31. The EU ensures cleaner air and is a world leader in environmental protection

32. The EU ensures that electrical and electronic waste is recycled

7: The EU makes it easier to travel and work in Europe

33. The EU makes it possible to live and work in any EU Member State

34. Europe also gives you health insurance cover when you travel

35. Call if you are in an accident! Europe has a single emergency number: 112

36. Drivers in Europe do not have to worry about borders

37. The EU means travel without borders: The Schengen area

Part 8: Promoting education, research and culture

38. The EU sends young people abroad to study

39. The EU’s new voluntary service: the European Solidarity Corps

40. The EU provides work for young people

41. Researchers receive billions from the European ‘Horizon 2020’ programme

42. The EU creates a European Science Cloud

43. The EU is connecting Europe — free Wi-Fi in towns and villages

44. The EU promotes a Europe of cultures

45. The EU preserves cultural diversity and designates European Capitals of Culture

Part 9: The EU creates internal security

46. The EU combats terrorism

47. The EU takes action against organised crime

48. The EU protects women and children from trafficking and abuse

Part 10: The EU plays its part on the world stage

49. The EU is the world’s leading development aid donor

50. The EU provides assistance in the Syria crisis

51. The EU supports its neighbours

52. The EU is the world’s largest donor of humanitarian aid

Part 11: The EU is helping with the global refugee crisis

53. The EU is saving lives

54. The EU is protecting its borders

55. The EU is fighting traffickers

56. The EU is fighting the root causes of migration

57. The EU is committed to common asylum standards in Europe

Part 12: The EU is cutting red tape

58. It is big on big things but small and modest on smaller things

59. The EU is no bureaucratic monster — Europe costs less than we think

60. The EU pays off.

Perrypower, other than the opening line "...the constant sniping at the EU" (which for me is simply not the case) a lot of the 60 points makes sense. 

It's a great pity that these were not made in a stronger manner in the run up to the referendum. 

Where was the "remain" campaign?  Who was their leader?  It seems to me that idiots like Boris Johnson get far too attention from the media.  Jeremy just hasn't a clue - cannot even decide himself.

acer, you are right.  Unfortunately, Jeremy did not whole heartedly support Remain in the referendum because he has issues with the EU.  This has caused him to sit on the fence ever since; he is hoping to come out on top by appearing not to alienate anyone.  Trouble is, sooner or later you have to take a side.  The longer he waits to get on with it the more of his support moves towards the Liberal Democrates and the Green party

Agreed these were great aspirations, but many on the ground so to speak have found that in reality their first hand experiences when they tried to use the EU to protect their rights, to bring matters to the attention of MEPs, protect their living standards, not compromise their employment status and protect against big corporations or the effects from swift uncontrolled movements of people, ensure adequate supervision and compliance of Banks were acted upon, protect borders and infrastructures, etc, ensure stability mechanisms intended to protect against economic distortions were adhered to, etc etc, sadly the list goes on..... were all sadly found wanting and appeared as rhetoric to many of those compromised or made vulnerable through EU policy decisions that were all too frequently not given sufficient serious consideration or ignored.

 But most worrying has been the impact across Europe to take action to address such first hand insecurities that have led to division and alienation and in reality worked against what was originally intended to be a protective cohesive Europe but a Europe willing to accept its failures and reform. 

People owning houses in Valencia region and were non residents in Spain, were charged a higher inheritance tax than residents, by Valencia region. They were able to take their case to the European Court who ruled this was illegal if these non residents were EU citizens.

Lots of Brits benefited from European law protection

It’s good to know that the EU recognised discrimination and ruled accordingly, but I noted another petition re inheritance tax

https://petiport.secure.europarl.europa.eu/petitions/en/petition/content/1212%252F2018/html/Petition-No-1212%252F2018-by-M.-E.-C.-C.--%2528Spanish%2529-on-inheritance-tax-rates-in-Spain

The petition was declared inadmissible by the Committee on Petitions at its meeting of 21 March 2019: Matters seemingly not coming within the Union’s fields of activity(List 3).

Also it has been suggested that Spain is in­tend­ing to har­mon­ise in­her­it­ance taxes in re­gions be­fore this Sum­mer with the suggestion being that gen­er­ous al­low­ances are likely to dis­ap­pear?

Likewise many petitions on a variety of issues that have come before EU committees have been declared inadmissible over the years ...deemed to have not come within the Unions field of activity due to current treaty arrangements which declare they cannot interfere in member states affairs. 

Some may well be pleased by this, but equally it would appear wrong to suggest that protections exist, when in reality they do not under current treaty arrangements. 

This is similar to the conclusion gained many years ago from the EU  Parliaments Vice President Diana Wallis with regard to seeking protection and recognition of rule of law relating to Bank guarantee law when it was suggested that it was for Spain to resolve the problem, which subsequently led to a decade and beyond, with THOUSANDS having to litigate against Banks whilst being subjected to major delays that in effect compromise the rule of law ....and still ongoing! 

For those interested she authored a report titled “D.Wallis (ed), European Property Rights and Wrongs, 2001” https://dianawallis.org.uk/en/document/european-property-rights-and-wrongs#document in which she astutely concluded

“It was a real privilege to host the seminar in June and especially to see the reaction of many participants who perhaps felt that they had been working away in their own corners on these issues without attracting sufficient input or notice from the European Institutions. I hope that this small publication goes some way towards correcting that and will help raise the profile of these matters.

It has to be emphasised that the e-mails from constituents keep coming and we have to respond. Whilst on the one hand the contributions to this publication showcase the many admirable initiatives at professional and administrative level, 

 Many will argue that such intervention is currently a political impossibility, far too difficult and sensitive, but if highlighting the pitfalls around cross-border property purchases shows that we are currently letting our citizens down - what better motivation (and indeed justification) could exist for more attention and action on this subject? The right to property, a citizen’s right to their home, is fundamental and is as much a European value as the many other so called European values which we champion daily. At a time of economic uncertainty, that right needs underpinning more than ever,and should find its place in the program for the proposed ‘European Year of Citizens’ in 2013. “

Sadly the requirement for underpinning all manner of property rights issues still continues to require clear and systematic intervention from the European legislature so many years  since she authored this report back in 2011.....

How many times have we witnessed on EOS the observation re lack of faith in the European system when the suggestion has been made to report concerns to MEPs? So Is it any wonder that disillusionment in EU institutions continues to grow in this regard when they fail to listen to all manner of compromising issues not just in Spain but also in many other member states, and adequately respond?

Is it not the time therefore for serious review to reform and make MEPs, Parliament and the Commission far more accountable to the citizens it’s meant to represent??? Sad that so little is spoken of the real need for reform of the EU by those who wish to remain. Perhaps it’s because they see such an uphill battle when it comes to gaining influence over an ever present powerful elite?

I am posting a link to a blog of one of the best political writers around these days, Ian Dunt and his views on the Tory leadership election.

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/05/30/a-few-questions-we-could-maybe-ask-the-tory-candidates-about

Does the fact that the EU (re-emphasised by Michel Barnier ) has stated a refusal to reopen negotiations on the withdrawal agreement only confirm the intransigence and arrogance from a powerful elite of Commissioners intent on standing firm on an agreement, in full knowledge that it will NOT pass through the UK Parliament in its existing form, not speak reams of their lack of willingness to seek good workable compromise via a mutually beneficial agreement? 

To repeat, is it not time to gain reform and accountability from an ever present powerful elite who remain intransigent in full knowledge of the harm that their continuing refusals to face uncomfortable realities do to the real lives of citizens, to listen to citizens concerns that influenced their disillusionment with the European status quo, and continue to use manipulative tactics where they could compromise a long fought for peace agreement, not least recognise the impact on division and cohesion across Europe if they continue to bully in this manner?

Nonsense! ads

An agreement was reached with the highest authority in the UK, but individuals for their very own selfish desires would not pass it it through Parliament.  Stop trying to paint the EU as the bad guys and gals.  The problem is so much closer to home.

International political agreements are just that. A treaty negotiated, signed, sealed and agreed by both sides. This is the UK/EU withdrawal treaty. The UK PM and the EU Commission and heads of government have also ratified it.  

The fact that the UK Parliament refuses to ratify it does not mean the treaty has to be renegotiated solely to accommodate Tory and Unionist nationalist beliefs and opposition party politics. It is not intransigence on the part of the EU. They are firmly and correctly keeping to what they agreed. International treaties between nations are not something you change or weaken after the event. The exit agreement was not negotiated against the British; negotiators on both sides tried, painstakingly, to find the best solution for all concerned.

If the UK chooses to do something else after making such agreements that is that countries sole responsibility. The consequences are well documented. 

Since the referendum, foreign investment in the UK has fallen by 30%. The prospect of a no deal in October will bring the UK to its knees economically, and reduce its GDP by 8%. Within a year it will force the collapse of this shambles of a government and bring a general election in which I expect Labour to win.