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Please keep on thread and keep the posts relevant to the topic at hand. If you keep going off thread we will have to call it a day with this thread and lock it permanently, maybe everything that has to be said has already been said....let's see.
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This message was last edited by eos_moderators on 08/08/2016.
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Dual Nationality (Spanish plus another):
Marie Dev is right. Generally not permitted; however, citizens of former colonies can apply after just 2 years of residence in Spain and can keep their previous nationality.
I understand from a German friend who has been married to a Spaniard ‘for ever’ dual nationality was also allowed in Franco’s time for special cases.
Of coures if one does not have Spanish nationality then dual nationality is not a problem. I have British and Irish. My EU Registration originally showed me as Britsh, but when I did not renew that passport I had it altered to show Irish, i.e. as per my valid ID.
This message was last edited by johnzx on 08/08/2016.
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duplicated in error
This message was last edited by Hephaestus on 08/08/2016.
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According to the FT, since the currency highs of 2015, Sterling has fallen 17.15% against the US Dollar and 18.25% against the Euro.
In the run up to the referendum that fall was about half and after the Brexit vote the remainder. So my original post on here that Goldman Sachs predicted a 20% fall was right on the money. New predictions I have read is parity within 18 months even against the US Dollar.
Inflation in the UK as a consequence has started to rise and will continue so to do until rates rise substantially again. I expect unemployment to being rising dramatically in tandem. UK growth has been revised downward by the OECD, IMF and the BoE. House prices in London have also begun their predicted fall as will the rest of the country’s housing stock over the coming years. Mortgage rates inevitably will increase and reduce further the spending power of the UK consumer. Foreign investment has dropped and is likely to accelerate towards the exit as Britain starts the leaving process.
So called project fear can now be renamed as project reality or we told you so. Its early days of course, to reach the bottom of the pit the UK economy has a very long journey ahead.
This all begs a question. How long will it be how much pain and social unrest can the UK public endure before they start and demand a return vote to rejoin the EU?
First will come the realization by the Brexit electorate that they were lied to big time by all and sundry and actually so called project fear was a decent attempt to warn the voters of what they were likely to face. Those politicos will be long gone of course by then having moved on to more lucrative pastures. A change of government in 2020 may accelerate the call to restore membership but my best guestimate is by 2025 the UK will be back as a full member of the European Union, if they will have you.
The reality will quickly dawn that as a trading nation the UK cannot prosper in today’s dynamic global market place outside the single market or within a tading block of some kind. The old arguments of the referendum campaign will change slowly to something like ‘we can save the nation by returning’. Or lets become Americas fifty third state.(unlikely) However you may get my drift.
It’s a funny old word democracy give the people a chance to kick ass and boy will they screw up.
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Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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It doesn't take a crystal ball to work many things out what will happen, or even might happen.
The Euro fell once to about 1.15 to the Pound a good few years ago while we were still in.
Unemployment has been rising also for years past, it don't according to government figures, it has dropped, well it did when they took out many from being 'Unemployed' to new figures 'Looking for work'.
The UK has been devastated by millions of cheapo imports which our quality business's could never compete with, we lost Woolworths while in the EU, banks have been cutting staff for years, and shutting branches, same as the Post Office, again all happened while in the EU.
House price's all over take a dip every so often, and rise, London probably the worst due to the stupidly high prices many are asking, which were bought for decent figures in the hope a mug paid many millions more weeks later. Rents are based almost on supply and demand, millions of in-comers need rental homes which in turn pushes up prices....Again been happening for years while in the EU.
All these job losses, house prices, closing downs were all bubbling away in the back ground way before the Brexit thing started and for them thank goodness it did, as they now have something to place the blame on.
I have noticed though that the weather in August has not been as good now we are 'Out' as when we were 'In'.
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Well, I am pretty certain the major employers (like Nissan) were not talking about moving out of the UK before the vote.....
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“Yes of course it is a commitment, we make these long term commitments. The most important thing, we lose sight of the fact that we have a fantastic success story in the North East, we build half a million cars a year, it is probably the most productive car plant in Western Europe, and I would argue globally. That’s a great credit not only to Nissan in terms of investment but also the workforce in the North East, and I think if you understand what that means in terms of our competitiveness, our position in terms of competitiveness is driven by not only the situation in Europe in terms of whether we’re in or out of the EU, but more importantly the commitment of the people in the North East, the supply chain we have in the UK, and I think the focus should be really in that area because that is why we have such a great success story; it’s the combined impact of our investment but also the supply chain and a great workforce.” [Emphasis added]
A pretty clear statement then, right? Nissan, like most other big companies, doesn’t base their long-term plans on EU membership. It might be one consideration amongst many, but it certainly wouldn’t cause the company to abandon its UK operations.
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The Brexit effect will take years to roll out fully. The consequences have only just begun. Companies like Nissan takes investment decisions by the decade. Some will invest now to take adavanage of the weak currency but will sell when profit is made.
This is what Richard Branson said recently:-
“I met with a group of Chinese businessmen yesterday morning who have invested heavily in England and who are now going to stop investing and withdraw investments they’ve already made,”
He said his opinion that leaving the EU would damage investment in Britain was shared by “every single person I’ve met from overseas”.
The sad thing is it cannot be fixed. "Brexit means Brexit" the prime minister has said. So any debate is now pointless. Damage limitation is about all we as individuals can do. I am suffering along with many even though I knew what the vote result was likely to be. There is only so much you can do.
I am also sad for the EU as a whole because it will damage the Euro area economy further at a time when they need all the help they can. There are absolutely no winners.
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Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Bemoan at the euro bureaucrats who failed to reassure it's citizens and failed to recognise or listen to citizens genuine concerns, failed to demonstrate willingness to reform, failed to adequately forward plan, failed to comprehend the effect that their decision making would have on member states whose skill sets were being radically depleted, whose younger generation had little option but to seek employment elsewhere on such a scale as to compromise the good will and tolerant psyche of recipient member state that had taken decades to establish, failed to regulate their banks and watch with disregard to the rule of law, failed to ensure compliance with policies designed to act as stability mechanisms, failed to comprehend the effects from an elite that were unaccountable and intent on political ideology that few could relate to....
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The Brexit effect will take years to roll out fully. The consequences have only just begun. Companies like Nissan takes investment decisions by the decade. Some will invest now to take adavanage of the weak currency but will sell when profit is made.
If it happens Mrs May has mentioned 2019.
Nissan might like to think they are big enough to up sticks and leave but considering the investment made in the UK and the fact that they sell many cars from this plant, not forgetting it's one of the best for labour and quality in the car world, if push came to shove things might be different.
This is what Richard Branson said recently:-
“I met with a group of Chinese businessmen yesterday morning who have invested heavily in England and who are now going to stop investing and withdraw investments they’ve already made,”
He said his opinion that leaving the EU would damage investment in Britain was shared by “every single person I’ve met from overseas”.
Seeing as Branson was one of the 'Never leave' then this comes as no surprise that the only people he speaks with, and repeats the words, are the one's that also think we should never have left.
If Branson told most people todays date they would be wise to check the calender.
I am also sad for the EU as a whole because it will damage the Euro area economy further at a time when they need all the help they can. There are absolutely no winners.
So now we have to worry that the Euro area will be damaged because we left, is that how fragile the Euro area is then, that the UK goes and they cant survive without us, the only help they needed was the money that the UK put in the pot, sure we got some back. Maybe now they are realising just what the UK did for the EU, woken up perhaps.
I voted out, not because I would surmise what could / would / might happen, not because I could guess the outcome, not because I knew what would happen if we left. NO ONE PERSON KNEW THAT....But for the sake of the UK which if people hadn't noticed has taken a slow but sure quite bashing from the rest of the EU.
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If it happens Mrs May has mentioned 2019.
As it will take 2 years from when Article 50 is triggered, and she has said that will not be done before the end of this year, it cannot become effective before 2019.
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I see the Prince of doom Mickyfinn has woken up from his post exit depression look forget all that crap we are doing amazing at the Olymipics we are survived and fighters BREXIT will be the best thing that has happened in a hundred years
Go back to sleep please Micky your posts are Tripe
Tripe another great British invention LOL
Love Hugh
ps wish I had got money this FTSE thing is making Brits loadsmoney so what's the problem
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Done the Spain thing Happier in the UK
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I'm referring to the Brexit effect not how long it will take the politicians to work it out. However that might take even longer than two years and may well end up a dog’s breakfast. The Brexit effect will negatively impact everyone’s lives in the UK for years.
I have accepted that the Europe I moved to forty years ago and hoped would one day become a nation state is over. I have learned in life that dreams have an odd habit of never quite fulfilling their potential.
In France the political far right may well win power next year. Merkle is very unpopular after the Syrian immigration decision. The political future of Europe and the EU is looking at best uncertain. The worst does not bear consideration.
Perhaps we expats should form a sort of ‘Brexit Anonymous’ where we can all relieve our collective gloom and take the recovery road.
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Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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When I lived in Turkey many years ago I used to go to the local abattoir and buy fresh tripe for my dogs. It was impossible to find dog food on sale there in those days.
Tripe is very nice grilled on toast. I can recommend it.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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** EDITED - Against forum rules - Advertising **
This message was last edited by eos_moderators on 8/16/2016 6:50:00 PM.
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Funny old things exchange rates, Just like the rest of statistics you can make them say what you like.
Looking at the graph of the last 6-9 months you would say the pound has shown a downward trend against the euro. There is a wiggle (up down up) around the time of the referendum but otherwise it is a nearly linear reduction over time.
Of course you can pick two dates and make out a nearly 18 % drop but I'll let you chose if that is lies, dam lies or statistics. You do not have to go back far in time to show a 15% rise but that would come in the same category as the 18% drop.
A reasonable person would say that the pound has been on a downward trend against the euro.
You might speculate why. A reasonable point for speculation might be that the last chancellor authorised the B of E to print money. Money is like any other commodity, if you have a surplus it looses value. Another reasonable point to make is that the markets do not like the UK's massive debt.
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f Brexit does indeed take place, it won’t actually happen until at least 2019, Theresa May quietly admitted yesterday.
Of course, she didn’t say that loud in case the right-wing press start crying foul, but that is what she said.
After a meeting with Germany Angela Merkel yesterday, she said that Brexit won’t start until 2017.
As the BBC reported:
At a joint press conference, Mrs May said the UK was in no rush to trigger the two-year process of leaving the EU – telling reporters that although “this would not please everyone” it was right to hold off until the UK’s “objectives were clear”.
The process of preparing the UK for Brexit would require “serious and detailed work” but, irrespective of this, she said the UK was determined to maintain strong trading, economic and security links with Germany, which she described as “a vital partner and special friend”.
That means Article 50 won’t be triggered this year, and it may be as late as mid-next year that it actually gets triggered.
Since Article 50 is a two year process, it means we won’t legally leave the EU until at least 2019.
johnzx said......As it will take 2 years from when Article 50 is triggered, and she has said that will not be done before the end of this year, it cannot become effective before 2019.
Best you take that one up with Mrs May if you disagree with her.
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The pound rose to more than two-week highs against the US dollar and made impressive gains against the single currency this morning; supported by the release of an upbeat UK retail sales report and the dampening effect of the Fed’s latest policy meeting minutes.
Shoppers were seemingly unfazed by the uncertainty that ensued from June's Brexit vote, as retail sales rose by a far bigger than expected 1.5 per cent month-on-month in July; rebounding from a 0.9 per cent fall the previous month. According to the Office for National Statistics the surge in sales in July were supported by favourable weather; while there was also anecdotal evidence that the pounds Brexit fuelled misfortunes encouraged overseas tourists to spend more during their time in the UK.
The minutes of July's meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) contained nothing to stoke expectations of higher interest rates over in the United States next month. Nine members voted to maintain the status quo with only one, Esther George, preferring an immediate increase. Whilst a September rate hike remains a theoretical possibility, futures pricing ascribes it only a 22% chance.
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GPB rises 2c since Mickyfinn slags it off.
Keep on slagging!
Is it too early to interpret the turning of the corner and an upward trend?
Almost certain to be the the start of an upward trend as the first pension payment to my Spanish account was at the end of last week!
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mmmm, such a common word 'slagging'. Sterling’s recent modest rise would not have anything to do with speculators pricing in the latest UK GDP rate announcement on Friday would it?
If its negative Sterling will be back to 1.15.
Chief economists at HSBC and UBS both agree Sterling will be at parity with the Euro by mid 2017 when the Brexit disaster gathers apace..
Almost every financial brain around the world I have read believes Brexit is a huge loss for the UK people and its economy. You may think you know better but I think I know who is right.
Britain also has a huge current account deficit to deal with. The B of E need low sterling to keep that balloon from growing. ‘Whatever it takes’ Caney has said. The prognosis for Sterling is terminal decline.
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Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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