BigAl2015
This thread is titled Brexit (from the EU). In the context of this thread, the balance of trade and payments I'm referring to, is consistent with the thread title, ie trade between the UK and the EU. As such, it refers to exports, not entire GDP. I thought that was clear.
Your link is fine, but you'll notice it talks about a time line that is some way into the future. As we've seen in just a few short months, dramatic things can change. This may mean it gets better, alternatively, and its hard to see how, but it may mean things get even worse. I'll come to that in a response to Ads in a moment.
Immigration - To quote the Australian Prime Minister "We shall decide who comes into the country, and the conditions under which they come". This is great as a starting point. I would still point out the exact same points I made previously regarding the greying demographic. As more and more people move out of work and into retirement, this means a few things happen; less tax receipts from these people, more expenses towards their aged care, and a smaller proportion of people IN work to pay for this, due to decreased tax receipts. Where will the funds come from to look after our elderly? I can talk at length about this, but this is a problem that has a lagged outcome, and short term thinking won't solve this problem. If I can just give you a parallel argument, look at China; there, there is a situation now where 1 man is supporting 7 people (husband, wife, child, and 4 elderly retired grandparents). The family unit is breaking down because 1 person cant realistically support 7, and these able bodied men are leaving their families behind. If you look at this problem, you may recognise that we are heading towards this outcome, where a small pool of resources is looking after an increasingly large group, as our medicine and nutrition allows people to live longer.
In short, if you have a solution to the greying demographic problem, please provide it. I will nail my flag to the mast right now, and tell you that immigrants who come, are of working economically productive age, and who can begin contributing to tax receipts, are something to be viewed positively. Again, look at the what the immigrants managed in the US. An enourmous rise of capability, in a very short space of time, which was enough to defeat the old empire.
Finally, your point about "goading" Windtalker. I am very sorry you feel this way. However, WT has made a number of points regarding input costs which, if I am completely honest with you, make no sense whatsoever. Please re-read what was said. I take a lot of time to write my thoughts, and try to be balanced. I'm not here to deliberately upset people, but in saying that, when I see someone writing things along those lines, I feel compelled to call them out. And in the same vein, I hope you will see that when I write things, I try to cite a source where it may be appropriate. I have stated in the past 44% as a statistic. You have backed up exactly what I have said with your own article pasted here, so it would seem to suggest I am posting things with some degree of evidence. Unlike some (WT)?
Ads
Trade disagreement and consequences? You mentioned purchasing power. I wonder if you mean that in the sense of a block of people grouping together (thinking Tesco, Morrisons, Aldi, Waitrose, etc), or whether you mean this in the sense of purely the economic sense, being currency purchasing power.
Assuming the former, no agreement would mean WTO rules kick in, and tarriffs apply. In the short term, many firms would go out of business, on both sides (The UK and the EU). What is at risk? 44% for the UK, and 9% for the EU. It wont be that the entire segment would disappear though; there will still be sales, just at much higher prices due to tarriffs.
Assuming the latter, the UKs purchasing power has actually DECREASED, due to the devalued sterling.
Neither of the above is a good outcome.
This message was last edited by rob_j1 on 14/10/2016.