BREXIT

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20 Dec 2016 8:11 AM by perrypower1 Star rating in Derbyshire/Fuerteven.... 647 posts Send private message

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We need an army of trade negotiators. We barely have a platoon

Or at least we didn’t when we voted to leave Europe. Whitehall is now on a massive recruitment drive. We urgently need an army of general trade experts and ones with specialist knowledge in areas such as intellectual property law. The costs are painfully high. Some are quoting day rates of £3,000 to do consultancy work for the UK government. If they are hired full-time, their salaries will be lower – probably around the £100,000 mark.

Whitehall has been warned that it needs to be better resourced to cope with EU negotiations and make a success of them.

ive applied for a role as a negotiator and have my first interview late January.

 





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20 Dec 2016 8:13 AM by perrypower1 Star rating in Derbyshire/Fuerteven.... 647 posts Send private message

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Banks will have a good excuse to sack people 

City bankers don’t have time to sit around waiting to find out what May’s Brexit plan is. In order to avoid losing passporting rights in Europe, they have to register an office with regulators on the continent – a process that could take years. They are therefore likely to make “no regret” decisions, meaning they will do things they wanted to do anyway. In this case, that means moving back-office administrative staff to locations with cheaper rents and lower salaries, such as Warsaw. The less you earn, the more likely you are to be affected.





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20 Dec 2016 8:14 AM by perrypower1 Star rating in Derbyshire/Fuerteven.... 647 posts Send private message

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Britain is going to pretend it’s still in the EU (don’t tell anyone) 

If Britain is to going to ensure stability during its transition from the EU to independent membership of the WTO, it will have to replicate all the EU’s tariffs (charges on imports and exports). This makes a mockery of everything Brexit stands for, of course, but if we changed any tariff, it would trigger an avalanche of trade disputes and lobbying operations. If Britain was to raise tariffs on ham, for instance, it would trigger protests and formal dispute claims from not just European ham producers, but those all over the world.





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20 Dec 2016 8:17 AM by perrypower1 Star rating in Derbyshire/Fuerteven.... 647 posts Send private message

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Tenerife, this is one for you...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38371971

 





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20 Dec 2016 9:11 AM by tenerife Star rating. 130 posts Send private message

Perry,

 My what a busy boy you are,(or is it a busy body).





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20 Dec 2016 9:20 AM by briando55 Star rating in Yorkshire. 1982 posts Send private message

I don't have time to read all these Perry but I did read a couple that mention WTO

one of your first days of Christmas was saying if Britain thinks they can join the wto they are mistaken, but one of the last ones you put on says they may suffer stability during their transition to the wto.  

I think you should stick to advent calendars, they are more honest. 



_______________________

Best wishes, Brian

 




Like 5      
20 Dec 2016 11:38 AM by potblack Star rating in Alicante & Singapore. 233 posts Send private message

potblack´s avatar

Is there a Psychiatrist on this forum? Look likes someone has ''Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD)''.



_______________________
NARCISSISTIC PERSONALITY DISORDER: A mental disorder in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for admiration and a lack of empathy for others.



Like 7      
20 Dec 2016 1:15 PM by Destry Star rating in MYOB . 289 posts Send private message

Your all going about this in the wrong way guys, if you wait until you're ready for your beddy-byes before you read pp's posts, you will find them to be more effective than Horlicks. 😉

 


This message was last edited by Destry on 20/12/2016.

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IF YOU WISH TO QUOTE ANY OF MY POSTS PLEASE DO SO IN THEIR ENTIRETY AND NOT JUST A FEW SELECTED WORDS TOTALLY OUT OF CONTEXT. THANK YOU.



Like 6      
20 Dec 2016 1:55 PM by Jarvi Star rating in Halifax UK and Sucin.... 756 posts Send private message

I really think that it is time that this forum was closed by the Administrators.

I am becoming concerned about the health of at least 1, probably 2 people that are posting on here. It is obvious that brexit has pushed them close to, or even over the edge. Its the same arguments time and time again, and seems to be moaning and doom and gloom for the sake of it.





Like 2      
20 Dec 2016 2:18 PM by Tadd1966 Star rating in Los Montesinos. 1754 posts Send private message

As discussed before the UK are already a member of the WTO as are all 28 EU member states

https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/org6_e.htm

Round and round in circles we go because nobody knwos what is going tio hapopen and most of have no idea of the amount of things that need sorting, what is alreday agreed wht needs to be redoen etc etc etc  - it is all guesswork and a complete farce 

 



_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”



Like 1      
20 Dec 2016 3:06 PM by Destry Star rating in MYOB . 289 posts Send private message

Jarvi,

Forums are many things to many people, failures can be successes, cowards can be heros, the insignificant can be significant, I only counter post with posters that I wish to do so.

To quote the quote master, Mark Twain.

"Never argue with a fool, onlookers may not be able to tell the difference".

 

 



_______________________
IF YOU WISH TO QUOTE ANY OF MY POSTS PLEASE DO SO IN THEIR ENTIRETY AND NOT JUST A FEW SELECTED WORDS TOTALLY OUT OF CONTEXT. THANK YOU.



Like 2      
20 Dec 2016 6:28 PM by Jarvi Star rating in Halifax UK and Sucin.... 756 posts Send private message

Destry

You aren't one of the 2, and in fact I have now realised there are 3 of them that need urgent medical attention.... 





Like 0      
20 Dec 2016 6:40 PM by Destry Star rating in MYOB . 289 posts Send private message

Jarvi,

How's the cleckhuddersfax triangle these days? Nice of you to be so concerned about my state of mind, but I'd be mad to be crackers. 😜

 


This message was last edited by Destry on 20/12/2016.

_______________________
IF YOU WISH TO QUOTE ANY OF MY POSTS PLEASE DO SO IN THEIR ENTIRETY AND NOT JUST A FEW SELECTED WORDS TOTALLY OUT OF CONTEXT. THANK YOU.



Like 1      
20 Dec 2016 11:21 PM by ads Star rating. 4134 posts Send private message

The legal analysis:

 

After exit, WTO rules would apply which would allow the UK to decide the level of our own tariffs on imports, provided that tariffs on average are no higher than under the EU customs union.

The UK will be able to participate in new trade agreements with non-member countries from the day after exit.  The process of negotiating new trade deals can be started during the 2-year notice period leading up to Brexit, with a view to bringing them into force on or soon after the date of exit.

There will be no need for complicated renegotiation of existing free trade agreements as was misleadingly claimed by pro-Remain propaganda.

The UK could apply to re-join EFTA with effect from the day after Brexit. There is no reason why the four current EFTA countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway Switzerland)  would not welcome us back, given that the UK is one of EFTA's largest export markets.  EFTA membership would allow us to continue uninterrupted free trade relations with the four EFTA countries, and also to participate in EFTA's promotion of free trade deals with non-member countries around the world.

After Brexit, the UK would be able to negotiate new trade deals unencumbered by these special interests much faster than the EU, and with a higher priority for facilitating access to markets for our own export industries including services.

It is completely untrue that you need to be a member of a large bloc like the EU in order to strike trade deals.  The actual record of the EU compared to that (for example) of the EFTA countries demonstrates the direct opposite.

WTO rules provide for non-discrimination in tariffs, and outlaw discriminatory non-tariff measures. The UK would be in a strong position to negotiate a mutually beneficial deal providing for the continued free flow of goods and services in both directions. 

'Fortress Europe' rules of the single market positively require us to impose restrictions on trade between ourselves and non-Member states, so driving up costs to our consumers and industry. Therefore the aim should not be to preserve participation in the European single market with its negative features. Instead, the aim should be access to the single market.

Trade with the rest of the world is now more important to us than trade with the EU.  This is not some passing phase but a long term and persistent trend that seems likely to continue into the future.

The interests of the UK are dramatically different from those of all other member states of the EU. Our global trade is much more important to us than it is to other EU member states, while our exports to the rest of the EU are much less important to us than any other major EU state.

We import 66% more goods from the EU than they export to us. Any measures which inhibit trade between the UK and the r-EU after exit (such as the imposition of tariffs) would disproportionately affect EU exporters compared with UK exporters. German car workers and French agricultural producers are dependent upon reaching a harmonious and mutually beneficial trade deal with the UK.

Unlike a customs union, members of a free trade area can decide on the level of the standard tariffs which they charge to non-members of the free trade area. The UK could charge lower or nil tariffs on goods where there is no substantial UK industry to protect, to the benefit of our consumers and industry.

All non-EU territories in Europe have free trade agreements with the EU apart from Belorussia.

Since rules on free movement of goods and services are for the benefit of consumers in the state of importation, there is a strong argument for replicating these rules and applying them to goods and services imported from non-EU states as well, something which we are currently prevented by our EU membership from doing.

The UK is currently compliant with a mass of regulations and directives. Continued mutually beneficial cooperation in non-trade matters does not need to be embodied into a trade agreement.

After Brexit the EU will cease to have any competence in respect of the UK’s trade or other external relations, and the UK will automatically assume rights and responsibilities in respect of 100% of its relationship with other members under the WTO Agreements.  In addition, trade relations between the UK and the remaining EU (“the r-EU”) will cease to be governed by the EU treaties, and will automatically be governed by the framework of the WTO Agreements - unless of course a replacement trade agreement is negotiated between the UK and the r-EU which comes into force on exit.

One of the key principles of the WTO Agreements is non-discrimination in trade relations.  This means that WTO members are not allowed, for example, to charge different tariffs on goods imported from different countries except in clearly defined and limited circumstances.  Thus, following Brexit and assuming for the sake of argument that no trade agreement were reached between the UK and the r-EU, the r-EU would apply its standard external tariff rates to imports from the UK but would not be allowed to discriminate by charging higher rates to the UK than to other non-EU countries.  Similarly, the UK would apply its standard external tariffs to imports from the r-EU.

The UK would not be obliged to charge tariffs on its imports at the same rates as it is obliged to charge while it is a member of the EU customs union, and would certainly have the legal right to reduce them as it sees fit.

As a global trading nation, the UK has a strong interest in the general reduction of tariff levels around the world and would certainly not wish to act in way which would be against the spirit if not the letter of the WTO Agreements. The UK would certainly wish to apply a  similar principle when it leaves; i.e. to keep its average tariffs the same as or lower than under the EU’s current tariff regime.

The UK would be under no obligation to maintain its tariffs at the same level as it is currently obliged to impose under the EU customs union. In many cases EU tariffs are set at high levels in order to protect industries in other parts of the EU where the UK has little or no domestic industry to protect,  such as textiles and clothing, shoes and many kinds of heavily protected agricultural produce. In these cases the UK receives no benefit but pays twice over for the privilege of protecting foreign industries from lower cost competition in the world market:  our consumers pay higher prices than they need for the products concerned, and on top of that and to add insult to injury, the UK have to hand over the tariffs collected at our ports to the EU as part of its so-called "own resources".

It would be a clear and unequivocal benefit of leaving the EU to have the right to set tariffs at levels which suit our own circumstances and probably, as a nation with a bias to free trade, reducing them in many cases.

The international counterparties to the existing EU FTAs will almost certainly follow general State practice in State succession cases and accept the rolling over of FTA arrangements so that they continue to apply to the UK after Brexit.

EFTA operated as a free trade area in Europe alongside the EEC and contained, in addition to the UK, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria, and Portugal.  In 1973, the UK and Denmark joined the EEC and as a result withdrew from EFTA.

It would be logical for the UK to apply for readmission to EFTA in advance of Brexit, with a view to its membership taking effect immediately upon EU exit.  There seems no reason why the four current EFTA states should not welcome such an application. The EU and its Member States are not parties to the EFTA convention and would have no say over such an application for membership.  The immediate effect of the UK joining EFTA upon Brexit would be to preserve the existing free trade relations between the UK and the EFTA states, avoiding the risk of, say, Swiss exports into the UK being subjected to tariffs (and vice versa).  Notably, in 2013, the UK was Switzerland’s fifth most important export market in the world (Swiss official website), while the UK was Norway’s single most important trading partner receiving 25% of Norway’s total exports in that year (Norway official website). All four EFTA states have standards of living comparable to or even higher than the UK so do not present any mass migration risk.

By rejoining EFTA, the UK would be able to seek the extension of existing EFTA FTAs to itself, and also to give a large positive impetus in collaboration with its EFTA partners to forging new agreements and extending existing free trade agreements particularly in the area of trade in services.

Although claims have been made to the contrary, it is clear that the UK is legally entitled to negotiate and conclude, during the period before exit, trade agreements which will come into force from and after the date of exit:

 

 





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21 Dec 2016 12:00 AM by ads Star rating. 4134 posts Send private message

Re Banks shedding jobs, it appears that European Banks are preparing a fresh round of bloodletting -- with some 20,000 jobs set to go -- as tougher rules and negative interest rates weigh on profits. (Bloomberg Oct 2016)

 

As for freedom of movement, according to the Guardian during the referendum campaign they identified the following

When asked by Ipsos to describe the reasons why freedom of movement should be restricted, more than 70% of respondents said that it was due to pressure on public services. A majority mentioned the number coming to the UK to claim benefits (59%), pressure on housing (55%) and that the UK is becoming overcrowded (54%).

Only 14% said that migrants from the EU dilute British culture, 8% said the UK is losing sovereignty and 5% said EU nationals were creating competition for skilled jobs.

The Ipsos analysis also revealed that most voters aren’t confident that the prime minister Cameron will get a good deal: 26% are not confident at all, while 40% are not very confident.

The rest was history of course….





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21 Dec 2016 12:42 AM by hugh_man Star rating in Kent/Roda . 1593 posts Send private message

hugh_man´s avatar

Round and round in circles we go because nobody knwos what is going tio hapopen and most of have no idea of the amount of things that need sorting, what is alreday agreed wht needs to be redoen etc etc etc  - it is all guesswork and a complete farce.

Tadd

You keep asking the same questions, the WTO was set up to ensure the ability to trade between most countries without undue regulations or unfair tariffs.

 

As Ads has suggested, there is no need to renogiate trade deals, will be allowed to trade on their terms and then negotiate with whomever we wish.

Why is everyone so gloomy about WTO?





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21 Dec 2016 8:36 AM by perrypower1 Star rating in Derbyshire/Fuerteven.... 647 posts Send private message

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You can’t just copy and paste EU law 

Ministers want to transfer all EU laws into Britain using the so-called great reform bill. The trouble is, they don’t know where to find them. The Equalities Act, for instance, is a messy mixture of EU and UK legislation. In every area of law, there are bits and pieces of EU directives. Good luck tracking them all down.





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21 Dec 2016 8:37 AM by perrypower1 Star rating in Derbyshire/Fuerteven.... 647 posts Send private message

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Britain could end up demanding a hard border with Ireland

Britain and Ireland enjoy legal protections against EU immigration law which allow them to “continue to make arrangements between themselves relating to the movement of persons between their territories”. This should prevent Brussels imposing a hard border for people in Ireland. But there are no protections against tabloid scare stories. After Brexit, we can expect campaigns about Polish plumbers crossing into England from Ireland to work. It will be nonsense – Polish people could just as easily use tourist visas – but it could be politically effective. If a hard border returns to Ireland, it will be because of Britain, not the EU.





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21 Dec 2016 8:38 AM by perrypower1 Star rating in Derbyshire/Fuerteven.... 647 posts Send private message

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What’s good for the burger lover isn’t good for the beef farmer …

A bilateral trade deal with the US would see cheaper burgers in the UK. The Americans have lower animal-welfare standards, use growth hormones in their meat and have larger farms. This won’t be good news for British farmers, who will also be facing sky-high export tariffs and a possible end to subsidies. And it won’t be good news for animal rights campaigners. But burger lovers might be pleased.





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21 Dec 2016 8:39 AM by perrypower1 Star rating in Derbyshire/Fuerteven.... 647 posts Send private message

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not to mention British vets, who don’t enjoy watching cows being slaughtered 

EU law insists on an independent veterinary presence in abattoirs. The problem is that 95% of the vets doing this job in Britain are European – most of them from Spain. The problem is one of demand. British vets study for years to cure family pets, not watch cows being slaughtered. But Europeans have less of a cultural hang-up about that type of thing and are also willing to accept the lower wages involved. If Britain doesn’t train up more domestic vets for the abattoirs, it won’t be able to sell meat to Europe or properly check it for disease.





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