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Dear Forum,
I run from sneerers and bigots - when one is confronted by such people it is worthless to reason with them - just let them perish in their own troughs of misguided misery - what is tteedd short for? Tedious, perhaps!
I thought my thoughts might have some provoking points to make, but now I know I am wrong. To believe that in two and a half short months it would be possible to give magic words describing how the EU could be run and managed perfectly is absolutely not feasable. I am not at all religious in that I do not believe in God, but I do believe in the precepts of the ten commandments (and I think I have broken one of them at the end of the second line of the first sentence here) - Jesus (and I can believe in such a person) would never have tolerated such attitudes that I indicate in my first words above!
I must also say that my feeling is that this forum is limited in its scope - that, maybe, it does not have a large audience or, at least, an audience to make it worthwhile continueing to preach to. If I am wrong, then I appologise.
In closing, I wish all relevant Britons my deepest sympathy if the UK leaves the EU and think of all my relatives that gave their lives, as I would have done as a 13 year old soldier, in order that democracy might survive and flourish as it will do with an EU minus a GB.
Thanks for the visit, Victor
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Tteedd
Here is an "analysis" for you to ponder.
UK trade deficit with EU was £10.3 billion in January. At today's exchange rate it would have been £11.5 billion pounds. That means it would cost £1.2 billion pounds more this month to buy the same goods from the EU vs what they bought from us in January
I will leave it to you to work out much more per person Brexit has cost each of us already. It is real. It is real money out of everyone's pocket now. Not supposition. Not a leap. It is a fact.
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You may have your own personal interpretation of democracy tteedd but for many people around the world who fought in those wars believed what they had was worth fighting and dying for. Democracy is an imperfect system but as Churchill said 'it’s better than the alternative'.
The EU represents a process whereby wars become unnecessary and avoidable. Nations can settle their differences by argument and compromise. Is that not a force for good in the world?
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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The EU is full of crooks they have stitched us up for years this Panama thing I bet a lot of Eurocrats are shiting themselves
Love Hugh xx
_______________________
Done the Spain thing Happier in the UK
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If you work for Airbus or any company based in the UK that supplies Airbus you should be very, very worried about a Brexit vote if you don't want to lose your job.
This message was last edited by perrypower1 on 04/04/2016.
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@hughjardon
Really? I take it you've read the "headlines" and not a lot else. Firstly, there is nothing illegal about having an offshore fund. Indeed, I had one for a while though not exactly in Panama but Jersey whilst I was working in the middle east.
And have a look at the list of people who have been outed for having these funds. Apart from the sister of the former King of Spain, everyone else appears to be outside Europe except, of course, for our home-grown British politicians.
So-called "celebs", footballers, film stars also make the list.
Still, making things up by somehow linking it to the EU is pretty par for the shouty outies.
The only thing that would really make my day would be if a certain Mr T Blair and family were on the list.
This message was last edited by mariedav on 04/04/2016.
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"Leave campaigners have admitted that leaving the EU won't necessarily end freedom of movement. Norway and Switzerland, for example, are both outside of the EU but have free movement."
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I realise that I have stepped out of the forum, but I looked for the ´tteedd´ comment that caused me to leave, but cannot find it - has it been removed?
I am now reminded of the saying ´If what you see offends, then pluck out your eye.´ - could that be the reason?
I had intended taking up the cudjels with a certain duo on the forum, but, being correct, I now have to forego such pleasure.
Maybe we will meet in the abyss later in the year, Victor
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I am not aware of any of my posts being removed. Some by others were removed about 3 weeks ago. Fortunately or unfortunately I did not see them before they went.
'Britain's trade deficit in goods with the European Union hit a high of £23.6bn in the three months to January'', about £360 for every man woman and child in the UK.
I could do the same sum with our payments, but last time I did, despite having taken the figures from EU sources I was accused of telling porkies.
The value of currencies fluctuates all the time. A reduction in the value of the pound is good for British exporters since their goods cost less. It may not suit expats because they get less Euros for their pound.
My definition of democracy is much the same as anyone else's. But I accept that there used to be those that took DDR at face value.
Airbus is owned by a complicated mixture of European Aviation companies. At present it is totally dependant on BAE systems for wings. It is not possible to change this in the short term. But why should Airbus want to?
And finally Mr Cameron has made all sorts of promises that he has gone back on.
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The value of currencies fluctuates all the time.
1. Yes they do, but go and check out the volatility values (vega) for 3 month put options on GBP/EUR, they have gone through the roof. This proves that markets believe that the currency is more volatile.
2. GBP has moved from 1.44 to 1.24 against EUR in the last three months; the currency is trending down.
3. The trend in point 2 above should actually lead to lower vega in point 1 above but it is not; meaning we are no where near finished the devaluation of GBP yet in terms of market expectation. Expect GBP/EUR to trade down to 1.16 before the referendum.
4. If it is an 'out' vote its next stop will be par (it wont stop there). If 'in' it will hit 1.30.
5. Par would be good for exporters as they should have a competitive advantage except for massive trade duties that will be applied.
6. For importers, well they will be really stuffed. What they sold for £100 in January 2016 will be offered for sale at £140 in June. The FACT that we import alot more than we export means we are going to see inflation jump and the BOE will move up interest rates accordingly to cool the market. If you have a mortgage expect your payments to double. Remember we import raw materials so manufactured British Goods will also go way up.
7. Brits who live in the UK will fare the worst by far. Expats may find their incomes reduced but their underlying asset (a Spanish Property for example) will be 40% more valuable in term of GBP.
Airbus is owned by a complicated mixture of European Aviation companies. At present it is totally dependant on BAE systems for wings. It is not possible to change this in the short term. But why should Airbus want to?
Airbus have written to all UK employees explaining to them that if the UK brexit's they will on the balance of probabilities move the majority of their oeprations to other EU countries due to the uncertainty of what happens.
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Not much problem with 1 to 3 PP but 4 onwards is pure speculation.
The letter to airbus employees was high on plattitudes
( "We all need to keep in the back of our minds that future investments depend very much on the economic environment in which the company operates,")
low on facts and typical of other letters and announcements made by large companies at the EU's instigation.
Statements like this are true of all companies at all times.
I would prefer to look at what CEO's of growing self built companies are saying as they really have a keen interest in the future.
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Some facts on EU corruption.
Two years ago the European Commission publlished a report stating that Corruption within the EU was costing 100 Billion Euro's a year. Google "Corruption across EU 'breathtaking' - EU Commission" and take a look at the BBC and other pages dated 3rd February 2014.
Also, more recently 'Corruption itself costs the EU economy up to €900 billion each year' according to the EU Observer in an article entitled 'Corruption costs EU €71bn a year' dated 23rd March.
And the other fact is that the EU's accounts have never been published.
All from that fine upstanding ever closer political union/
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Firstly you need to read those articles. That is not that huge figure in the EU itself, it is in the countries that belong to the EU. Yes, we know Spain has had problems with corrupt mayors and land deals but it is not EU money, it is money within the country itself. UK has had its share with dodgy deals and so on but you are making it sound like the EU parliament, commission or whatever is involved in that corruption which it is not. For an organisation that has a total budget of €145 billion a year to have corruption of €900 billion a year would be rather difficult.
You also repeat the rubbish that the EU accounts (in your words) have never been published. Again you fail to read any of the links on this thread alone. The EU accounts are "published" every year and are on open source links.
Maybe you are repeating the tripe that the EU accounts haven't been signed off which is, again, another load of rubbish. I will repeat it again as the made up stories keep getting repeated by those with an agenda so often that people start believing it.
The EU accounts have been signed off as correct for many years by the European Court of Auditors and have been for many years. Again, I link this article
There is actual evidence in that article which show the level of error is less than that of the UK welfare budget and that of the US national budget.
A little less scaremongering from the shouty outies might go a little way towards making a reasoned argument instead of made up and misleading soundbites.
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I expect Sterling to go to parity with the Euro or less and remain there in the event of a Brexit. The principal reason for that is uncertainty. Investors will have no confidence in Britain until its economy can prove to the world it can grow outside the EU. Also the transitory arrangements and negotiations to leave will take years to accomplish.
A weak currency creates inflation and although it helps exporters it eventually causes imbalances to the economy.
It took Greenland two years to conclude its exit from the EU on independence from Denmark. They only had one arrangement to unravel. It’s fisheries treaty.
The UK has multi treaties and legal complexities that will have to be unpicked and finalised. Some estimates I have read predict seven to ten years. Uncertainty will prevail all that time, and to what advantage? Some vague notions of being unfettered from EU regulations and governing itself. It’s nonsense. The UK already enjoys more power for its national government than any other EU state.
It’s difficult to get across to the ‘outers’ that the current level of prosperity Britain has had since the recession would largely not exist had Britain been outside the EU. The reasons are complex and not easily defined but it is understood by global investors who have shown unrestricted confidence in the UK. It’s safe to say the economic advantages of EU membership far outweigh the risks of going it alone and taking a leap in the dark..
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Many people do not realise the failure by the EU to currently protect their property rights as the treaty currently stands.
It's essential that the EU ensure that member states adhere to the rule of law, internationally accepted rules, which indirectly link to the discussion on corruption and abuse of power. (http://worldjusticeproject.org/what-rule-law )
- The government and its officials and agents as well as individuals and private entities are accountable under the law.
- The laws are clear, publicized, stable, and just; are applied evenly; and protect fundamental rights, including the security of persons and property and certain core human rights.
- The process by which the laws are enacted, administered, and enforced is accessible, fair, and efficient.
- Justice is delivered timely by competent, ethical, and independent representatives and neutrals who are of sufficient number, have adequate resources, and reflect the makeup of the communities they serve.
(to remain free from political persuasion being an essential criteria).
The status quo, however, leaves member states to "self regulate" in this regard, which as many in Spain have recognised through the Bank Guarantee abuse (www.bankguaranteesinspain.com) is dependent upon the judiciary to consistently and ethically adhere to Supreme Court rulings, to effect justice in a timely consistent and fair manner, to provide adequate resource to the justice and administrative processes etc, i.e. adhere to all of the above criteria. All of which has been sadly lacking during the last decade and beyond which has resulted in major delays to gain clarification of law (SC rulings/doctrine). Still regional inconsistencies prevail in terms of major abusive delays, with some areas now so badly affected that innocent claimants await rulings and enforcement some 12 years on (and beyond).
Sadly as history demonstrates the EU have failed to protect in this regard and have repeatedly made reference to the requirement for member states to self regulate. This has been further exacerbated by failures to adequately monitor member states' justice systems, standardise complaints procedures to effect greater transparency, ensure Banking regulation is adequately addressed etc.
Retrospective changes to Coastal Laws, illegal build scenarios born from corruption and collusion, protectionist behaviour towards legal professionals, developers, Banks etc have all sadly played their part during this major scandal. And sadly in the interim lengthy periods, all too many have been left unprotected by the EU and their "impotence " to adequately protect. This is of major concern and is a fundamental, urgent requirement to EU reform if trust is ever to be regained.
I suggest all, in both camps, bring this to the attention of their MP's and MEP's via www.writetothem.com
This message was last edited by ads on 05/04/2016.
This message was last edited by ads on 05/04/2016.
This message was last edited by ads on 05/04/2016.
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I agree ads with all of your post. It's not just property rights that's lacking in Spain. It's the administration of justice generally and law enforcement which is weak and ineffective. For example there are three major Spanish law enforcement bodies. Guardia Civil, National Police and Policia Local. All of them are prohibited from sharing information between each other. Their information technology is incompatible and they don't talk to each other..
These problems are for the national government and regional government to sort out. Therein lies the problem. Regionalisation in Spain is supposed to provide local accountability. It does not. What it does do is encourage corruption and weak government endlessly arguing over triva and advantage for their supporting political parties.
The EU is very careful to allow national governments sovereign rights over its nation’s affairs. Interference in them brings condemnation from anti EU bodies and is the siren song for UKIP.
The EU is condemned if it does by some and condemned if it does not by others. That's modern politics I guess. It's not a justifiable reason for a nation to leave the institution.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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We are going in circles.
The EU court of auditors are EU employees.
The accounts have never been independantly audited.
Several people employed to reduce waste and proove the accounts have been sacked for doing their job. The last lady by our own Mr Kinnock.
...................
Lots of speculation going on, so I might as well join in!
It has been speculated that the small loss in value of the pound is due to large companies buying Euros to protect thier trading position. A sensible thing to do but they have a chance of making a loss albeit possibly a smaller one than they may have made otherwise. But the sort of thing trading companies do all the time.
So my speculation is that within 6 months of the referendum (result either way) the exchange rate will return to about the 5 year trend. But do not bet you pension on it.
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Mickeyfinn thank you for the educative post.
You observe, " The EU is condemned if it does by some and condemned if it does not by others. That's modern politics I guess. It's not a justifiable reason for a nation to leave the institution. "
IMHO, nor is it a justifiable reason not to bring ALL of this to the attention of MP's, MEP's (requesting they bring this to the attention of the EU Justice Minister and European Commission), no matter in which camp you preside Mickeyfinn!
www.writetothem.com
Kind regards.
This message was last edited by ads on 05/04/2016.
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It has been speculated that the small loss in value of the pound is due to large companies buying Euros to protect thier trading position. A sensible thing to do but they have a chance of making a loss albeit possibly a smaller one than they may have made otherwise. But the sort of thing trading companies do all the time.
There is a degree of truth in that statement.
Everyone involved in financial trading is trying to hedge their bets against Brexit right now. Me included. Going long Sterling is not a trade anyone should be making.The Euro is the currency of choice especially for carry trades when the US Dollar is weak on interest rate hike expectation. However it's the overall uncertainty that's driving down Sterling. The currency will be so battered in the coming run up to Brexit no one wants to hold it and they may never again if the UK leaves.
The last times that happened in 1992 it took five years to recover.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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This speculative manipulative behaviour by those within the financial industry begs the question, is this now becoming an abuse of power by those who were never elected and still remain insufficiently regulated?
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