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Rob
May I remind you that Micky was complaining about the amount of UK debt, now you are arguing that it should be paid off sensibly.
Isnt that what has changed with new government, they will naturally have to reassess financial promises given changes in circumstances.
It does not suggest we are a broken flush though w high is the case of many Italian banks, Deutsch Bank, some Spanish banks who have still not revalued property assets after the fall in value.
The EU economy is built on a dream NOT reality.
Perhaps, just perhaps we can bring ourselves down to earth after Brexit and start living within our means and work with all countries to collect taxes that are otherwise not paid because of deals in Luxembourg and Ireland which just happen to be EU countries.
You are forgetting UK contribution to the EU which we will eventually be able to apportion ourselves rather than paying for EU funded new roads to nowhere in Spain.
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tteedd
The problem with "looking at the currency" is:
1. What currency do you look at? GBP vs USD, EU, AUD, what?
2. What time horizon do you look at?
I've just gone into xe.com and had a quick look. If you look at the GBP vs the EU, and have a look at the last 10 years, looking at the currency from the trough of the GFC, you will see strong, continued growth right up until late 2015. On the 18th of November, it was valued at around 1.43, and if you know about tstats and whats called the "line of best fit", then you would say the currency was performing strongly up until then.
No one knows what caused things to go pear shaped from then. Currencies move up and down, sure. But I will say this. Insider trading has been with us since day one, and it wouldnt surprise me in the slightest if people close to HMG were aware of what was coming. Added to this, there is always speculation in the media about all kinds of things. You often see strange things happening, when something negative occurs, yet the share price goes up. Why? Because often times markets have priced it in already (insider trading, or just speculation).
Regardless, its a fact that our currency was performing very strongly until late last year. The raw numbers are
31 Dec 2008 1.02
18 Nov 2015 1.43 - protracted growth of around 40% since the GFC, over 7 years
11 Oct 2016 1.09 - protracted contraction of around 30% in just 1 year.
If you're aware of any other excuse to blame besides Brexit, lets have it.
This message was last edited by rob_j1 on 01/11/2016.
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Hugh,
Rob
May I remind you that Micky was complaining about the amount of UK debt, now you are arguing that it should be paid off sensibly.
Isnt that what has changed with new government, they will naturally have to reassess financial promises given changes in circumstances.
It does not suggest we are a broken flush though w high is the case of many Italian banks, Deutsch Bank, some Spanish banks who have still not revalued property assets after the fall in value.
The EU economy is built on a dream NOT reality.
Perhaps, just perhaps we can bring ourselves down to earth after Brexit and start living within our means and work with all countries to collect taxes that are otherwise not paid because of deals in Luxembourg and Ireland which just happen to be EU countries.
You are forgetting UK contribution to the EU which we will eventually be able to apportion ourselves rather than paying for EU funded new roads to nowhere in Spain.
Is our debt high? Yes
Should it be paid off? Yes
Why would you seek to create something divisive in these 2 points? This is the same outcome that every household follows (pay your bills), just like every country should as well.
You make some strange points besides seeking to create division. Yes of course some money goes to fund infrastructure in Spain. Just like money comes back to fund research here in the UK, and just like we get benefits of trade with the single market. Or did you conveniently forget that?
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Where do you think the money to fund research in the Uk comes from.
Has the EU got a magic money tree, oh no we are among the few contributors currently, so presumably we can continue to fund research, business, the environment oh and yes the NHS.
Of course i agree it is right to try and reduce our debt and live within our means.
You conveniently forget Micky made a derogatory comment about our budget deficit being too high, therefore we were in trouble as a Nation therein lies the divisions..
I merely pointed out this was not unusual but IMHO not healthy
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Hugh
The reason we are net contributors is because we have an economy that allows us to do it.
That economy was built on a great many foundations, including trading with nations. In case you forgot, 44% of that is with the EU.
Does it seem prudent to you to put that in jeopardy?
We dont know where we're going, and consequently we cant know how to get there. Mind you, being the 5th largest economy in the world, with 4.9% unemployment, and record numbers IN employment, and things are doing great economically.
If ones situation is already tremendously good, and you then seek to make fundamental changes, do you think things will get much better, or do you think they're likely to tip the other way?
For me, its a bit like saying, "I own my house, but thats not enough. I should sell up, and head to the casino to gamble. I dont know the rules, but I'm sure it'll be fine".
This message was last edited by rob_j1 on 01/11/2016.
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Total trade exports for August 2016 were £23.3 billion. This was a decrease of £0.5 billion (2.1 per cent) compared with last month and a small increase of £34.2 million (0.1 per cent) compared with August 2015.
Total trade imports for August 2016 were £41.4 billion. This was an increase of £1.6 billion (4.1 per cent) compared with last month, and an increase of £11.3 billion (37.8 per cent) compared with August 2015.
The UK was a net importer this month, with imports exceeding exports by £18.0 billion.
Looking at these figures it could be seen to some that the EU needs the UK more then the UK needs the EU.
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A view of Brexit from one of Swedens investment banks. I have highlighted what I believe is an accurate prediction of how Brexit may end.
Carnegie Investment Bank AB, which manages $17.2 billion for clients, sold all of its U.K. holdings as opinion polls narrowed ahead of the June vote to exit from the European Union.
“We had equities and corporate bonds in Britain before the vote,” chief strategist Henrik Drusebjerg said in a telephone interview on Monday. “We started selling off our U.K. holdings to absolute zero maybe a month before the vote,” he said. He wouldn’t give the value of the assets sold.
A separate survey of 83 money managers commissioned by NN Investment Partners revealed that Brexit and the potential breakup of the EU was deemed the biggest investment threat globally for the investors.
“It will definitely end with a deal that is so bad they will either get an election about this new bad deal, or they will have to have a parliamentary election before that,” Drusebjerg said in the radio interview. “It’s very possible that Britain will never reach Brexit because I think down the road it will be obvious that the deal they will get will be really, really bad for the economy.”
Brexit is shaping up to be the worst of a slew of nationalist sentiment that’s hitting the global economy, the strategist said, citing a potential Donald Trump victory in U.S. elections, a constitutional vote in Italy in December to limit the power of the Senate and parliamentary votes next year in Germany and France.
Source - Bloomberg.com
Baz:
The EU is a political union first and an economic one second. The British were prepared to be poorer for a political reason and the same applies to the EU. They will live without Britain perfectly well before contemplating compromise on the founding political principals of that union.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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The EU is a political union first and an economic one second. The British were prepared to be poorer for a political reason and the same applies to the EU. They will live without Britain perfectly well before contemplating compromise on the founding political principals of that union.
Are you saying then the EU, as a whole, is quite prepared to lose upwards of £41.4 billion if the UK did stop, or pull back, (because it will be able to trade with whom it likes) the bulk of trade with the EU, not forgetting these political principals will be thrown out the window, if and when they realise the UK is buying many of the same goods from other countries.
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Baz
Again with the "They need us more than we need them" lies?
We export 44% of our exports to the EU, they export 9% of their exports to us.
If the bridge was severed instantly, the UK would fall apart, but the EU would continue on with a minor disruption.
Do everyone a favour, and stop quoting skewed crap for your own ends.
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Well rob I got my 'Skewed' crap that I posted from the UK Customs and Excise webpage...Where do you get yours from?
So you see oh wise one I didn't make up this so called crap, of course as you know this 'Skewed Crap' is out and about if you cared to look, or maybe you are content to make up your own 'Skewed Crap' for 'Your' own end.
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Mickeyfinn
Hardly a surprising response by investment Banks if you consider the following reuters article titled "UK banks fear public, politicians set against them on Brexit"
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-city-idUKKCN1200H1
where it has been suggested " they don't like the fact that they've been overruled by the people who voted".
"There are signs that a four month lobbying blitz by some of the world's largest banks has backfired.
Officials say the banks have failed to appreciate the sheer scale of the Government information-gathering exercise as it tries to determine its priorities.
The finance ministry is doing a sector by sector analysis of the different Brexit scenarios on revenues, employment and tax receipts to inform Britain's negotiations with Brussels. "
This message was last edited by ads on 01/11/2016.
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If you're aware of any other excuse to blame besides Brexit, lets have it.
You have had it, just read my post again, it had solid reasoning, no excuses neccessary.
But just to be clear. Money is a commodity like any other. If you print too much of it then it will go down in value. If you do not believe this then look at the history of the Wiemar Rupublic. There are many other examples, Zimbabwe?
The last chancellor went through three rounds of quantitive easing. The only way to pay for this in the long run is by a reduction in the value of the currency. Which is just what we have. I repeat the pound has seen an almost linear drop since the last round of quantative easing. If you extend the drop between november and May you will find we are virtually at the same place, we would have been had the drop continued, Brexit or no Brexit.
I never said Brexit had no effect you only have to look at the day after the vote. But this panic was caused by people who were sure we were about to vote in and who have not been around long enough to remember even the exit from the snake, let alone when we joined the EEC in 72. I can and will argue that you cannot extrapolate the effect of Brexit long term especially when the pound was on a downward trend anyway.
The market often has jitters after political events. However it is difficult to proove that they have any long term effect despite the journalists on the BBC uttering their mantra. They probably nearly all voted in and have no better appreciation of economics than you or I.
This message was last edited by tteedd on 01/11/2016.
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Baz
Just because you get something from a reputable place, and then selectively quote or post it, doesnt make it right. Its skewed crap.
A simple analogy goes like this:
15% of all people involved in road traffic accidents are drunk. The moral to the story? 85% are sober. So lets get all these sober people off the roads, and let drunks drive safely.
Any stat can be misrepresented, and posting the fact that it comes from a reputable origin is just a disingenuous attempt at deception. You and I both know it.
PS: I got my opinion from the Macquarie graduate school of management where I obtained my mba from.
This message was last edited by rob_j1 on 01/11/2016.
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tteedd makes a very good point, value must go down if you increase supply.
QE increase supply of money ergo value of said asset falls.
Best example is price of property.
Growth in value has little to do with actual growth it has more to do with the value of the currency being used to buy the asset.
The more currency in circulation, the more you need to purchase the same asset.
Sterling is under pressure currently due to uncertainty not necessarily reflecting its true value.
At some stage the speculators will be brought back to think about to the huge uncertainty in the EU economies, what happens then?
The speculators and Alex Salmon once deemed that Oil was worth $120 dollars a barrel.
For such a well used commodity they got that one wrong then!
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If the bridge was severed instantly, the UK would fall apart, but the EU would continue on with a minor disruption.
A totally hypothetical construction, it aint going to happen.
Over a period of time however the UK could easily manage. But even this is not going to happen if Mrs Merkel has anything to do with it. It would however cause a politically damaging increase in unemployment particularly noticed in southern Europe where unemployment is approaching 50% and the loss of tax income might cripple the economies of Spain, Portugal and Greece and cause politcal unrest and further imbalance between N and S.
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Just because you get something from a reputable place, and then selectively quote or post it, doesnt make it right. Its skewed crap.
A simple analogy goes like this:
15% of all people involved in road traffic accidents are drunk. The moral to the story? 85% are sober. So lets get all these sober people off the roads, and let drunks drive safely.
Any stat can be misrepresented, and posting the fact that it comes from a reputable origin is just a disingenuous attempt at deception. You and I both know it.
Just the answer I was expecting back, that I selectively quoted Inland Revenue facts only goes to prove you really haven't a clue.
I didn't write the 'Skewed Crap' a word I notice you use a lot when answering other posters on here, the Inland Revenue did, hopefully you understand that your free to let them know the facts they printed are so very wrong, might even be pleased to hear from someone with such a high opinion of themselves.
Your false opinions matter not one bit to me, but they do show the money was wasted on trying to get you an mba.
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"YOUR free" ?
I am literally pissing myself laughing right now. Get yourself an education first before attempting to pass off as even a semi-educated poster.
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I have a question based on the EU unemployment statistics by country ( August 2016 )
https://www.statista.com/statistics/268830/unemployment
Does this indicate that for those countries whose unemployment stats are relatively low that their large migration patterns must be based in the main on wage differentials ( economic migrants) as opposed to those like Spain who have one of the highest unemployment rates, where there is a genuine need to seek work elsewhere?
Why does the EU not take this into account and develop different strategies for growth to better correct these imbalances, rather than depend upon uncontrolled and unplanned free movement that destabilises and proliferates division and unrest within those member states subjected to incoming swift unplanned movements, not to mention those stripped of their skilled labour?
Do the EU bureaucrats not realise how their current strategy is compromising stability in Europe and not adequately addressing the imbalances and problems at source?
This message was last edited by ads on 01/11/2016.
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"YOUR free" ?
I am literally pissing myself laughing right now. Get yourself an education first before attempting to pass off as even a semi-educated poster.
Well done.
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Oh, no. By all means, well done to YOU. Do realise what a royal ass you make of yourself when you tell someone else their education is wasted, and then you provide such an exemplary example as this? This may well go down as the post of the thread. And thats saying something when we have other such luminaries to draw on!
I should congratulate you.
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