| The Comments |
Rob_j1,
Thanks for the feedback and I too was critical of some areas of analysis if I'm honest but it does bring up links to Govt debt that need to be reviewed, it does identify that there are differing economic models to consider ( this was of concern in the referendum debate re worst case scenario data), it does identify that migrants uptake of in work benefit are not fiscally benefiting the economy as previously suggested by some, it does also beg questions that you raise....I agree wholeheartedly with your take on the Banks and have always been critical of the impact on nation states crippled by their actions ( wasn't happy with their assumptions in this regard but at least I was willing to consider the article as a whole without dismissing it completely out of hand).
But what the article does is hopefully get people thinking outside the box so to speak.
I still have reservations for instance re how the swift expanse of member states where wage differentials have now acted as a draw ( the original member states did not appear to struggle in this regard) and the impact on economies in this circumstance. My point being as you know I am asking for review and flexibility in relation to all these factors by the EU bureaucrats ( including stripping nations of their skilled workforces) rather than stick to what many perceive as a theoretical objective that fails to take account of compromising circumstances that make matters worse not better.
I sincerely don't wish to suggest that it is immigrants fault.... it's the system's fault. It needs bureaucrats who are willing to consider ALL uncomfortable realities from citizens perspective and respond accordingly and not just be ruled by the Banks in many regards. But also equally important for Govts to respond and better mitigate the effects on citizens, wherever possible.
Govts and EU bureaucrats need to work far more closely, be far more flexible when seeking out solutions, when swift changes that significantly affect lives and economies in this way occur.
I do agree with many of your sentiments.
This message was last edited by ads on 31/10/2016.
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Ads
I think we're aligned on many things, but if we really boil it down, the major difference we seem to have, noise aside, is freedom of movement.
EU = 4 freedoms
UK = "splendid isolation"
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"The UK had a trade deficit with 20 of the other 27 EU member states in 2014 and a deficit of £27 billion with Germany alone. These commercial considerations might lead to pressure for a UK-EU free trade agreement from within the EU."
Good evening and welcome Micky. Leave the door open there are others behind you.
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I am hoping for the best and preparing for the worst but this debate is not about me. It mystifies me why some posters insist on make it personal.
I was interested today listening to Standard and Poor’s spokesperson who predicted a further reduction in the Uk’s credit rating next year. Why?
It’s about political will and the S&P man said there is at the moment no meeting of minds with the politicians publically stated positions on either side. So he expects a hard Brexit and little compromise in any negotiations. He also said that two years was an unrealistic time table for complex trade negotiations that took seven years for Canada to achieve with the EU.
I don’t believe anyone in business in the UK or even Europe wants to see 10% trade tariff imposed on both sides. The problem is politicians will carry their own particular prejudices into the negotiations and an unpredictable outcome is probably certain.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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It mystifies me why some posters insist on make it personal.
Some simply can't help themselves - don't worry it is only a forum and if they are picking on you they are leaving someone else alone.
Still struggling to read any positive news or definitive plans for Brexit - but we still have time
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Doesn't make sense to reinvent the wheel....if CETA demonstrated a template that is acceptable to the negotiating team (s) and demonstrates best practice then such a template adjusted to suit both sides where applicable, could be used in negotiations with the Brexit team, but as we all know the bureaucrats will have intentions to do everything in their power to prevent an agreeable deal which says it all really.
Did you see the body language and disdain from Junker when asked about this? One thing Cameron did get right was to forewarn of this fellow's behaviour and intransigence from the outset. He has little intent to listen to the needs of citizens if past experience is anything to go by.
I know about the EU bureaucrats trying to use the UK as example but other member states have very different criteria and requirements ( one size doesn't fit all) so if they wanted they could use such a template couldn't they?
Re free movement Rob_j1 the whole point of flexibility and use of transient controls is that they could be used when required to counter adverse and compromising economic effects, but perhaps that too logical to consider and doesn't fit with ideological thinking?
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A really interesting question is after article 50 is triggered and two years of stalling by the EU to give the UK one single crumb of concession, what then?
Will the UK government shoot themselves in the foot and leave the EU with nothing or will they then chuck Brexit into the too difficult bin and withdraw article 50? Legally it’s thought by some commentators entirely possible, politically however is another question.
If there is then a change of government the entire Brexit question may be then in play. ‘Hope springs eternal’.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Does anyone actually believe that no other nation will vote to leave the EU? If not who and when would be my next question, there doesn't appear to be a lot of listening going on. 
_______________________
IF YOU WISH TO QUOTE ANY OF MY POSTS PLEASE DO SO IN THEIR ENTIRETY AND NOT JUST A FEW SELECTED WORDS TOTALLY OUT OF CONTEXT.
THANK YOU.
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Mickyfinn
There majority of any stalling will come from the UK as they have no position or plan
all the EU will do is hold firm on its core values and long may they continue
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Still struggling to read any positive news or definitive plans for Brexit
1. Brexit is the positive news! It is the best news we have had in years. Last time I was anywhere near as cheerful was when the Berlin wall came down.
2. There has been a plethora of other pos' news from the expansion of the economy to the Nissan announcement.
3. The definitive plan is we leave the EU. Our government will be doing as any other government of a free trading nation and be seeking the best of relationships with other nations in order to boost trade. If you want to be on the inside track you should have sought a career as a politician, civil servant or diplomat.
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I was interested today listening to Standard and Poor’s spokesperson who predicted a further reduction in the Uk’s credit rating next year. Why?
S&P did a wonderful,job of downgrading the toxic housing debt in 2007/8 didn't they?
Are you still believing everything you are told by so called experts.
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Hugh
I didn't say I believed what the S&P spokesman said. I simply posted his comment as a possible scenario. There is a difference. The only effect of the UK being downgraded again is higher rates on their very large debt.
Britains public debt is ballooning and an equal economic risk for the country as Brexit.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Tteed
SooSorry but what are the plethora of good bees6
Nissan would feel stayed had We voted to remain and they now have a deal or a stroke of luck
Yes we are leaving who's is bad news for many but we don't know what we are getting into uncertainty for the economoy and the public
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Must be very worrying for Nissan that everyone knows what is going on in their boardroom. If it is all getting to their competitors they may shut up shop.
Good news:
Stock market up showing confidence in trade and industry.
Manufacturing output up.
Consumer sale up.
Unemployment down
Employment up.
Bad news:
National debt still increasing.
This message was last edited by tteedd on 01/11/2016.
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Mickey
Surely that it the point, there are many many views and comments out there of what MAY happen, scarey.
Wht don't we just get positive and work on ways that it will work.
THE WORLD IS NOT ABOUT TO END BECSUSE WE LEAVE THE EU.
News flash.
The whole worlds debt is actually completely out of hand, most of the successful economic growth gained prior to 2007 and since 2009 has been gained by QE, low interest rates and the spend, spend, spend policies of money that nobody has and they hope will never have to be paid back.
The previous government did their best to reduce this level of debts and reduce the interest payable and got criticised for austerity.
Now you are criticising this government for spending too much.
with you, no one ever wins.
Try a course on Mindfulness, you never know, things may look different.
Honestly, the world will not turn upside down when we leave,
Trading partners may be different.
Rules and regulations may vary but will always be with us.
Brits will continue to travel and live abroad and much of the world will still visit or work in the UK.
The world will,still be having problems dealing with a mass refugee crisis created by authoritarian and violent regimes.
Hoefully, we will have learnt that the one size fits all approach, is not the success, some will have you believe.
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Yes tteedd,
Neither have they realised that the answer to all of their problems lies on expat complexes in inland Spain , that is if they manage to translate the code that their secrets have been posted in.
_______________________
IF YOU WISH TO QUOTE ANY OF MY POSTS PLEASE DO SO IN THEIR ENTIRETY AND NOT JUST A FEW SELECTED WORDS TOTALLY OUT OF CONTEXT.
THANK YOU.
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In the first quarter of 2015 Britain’s national debt amounted to £1.56 trillion, or 81.58% of total GDP, at which time the annual cost of servicing (paying the interest) the public debt amounted to around £43bn.
Due to the Government's significant budget deficit, the national debt is increasing by approximately £73.5 billion per annum. George Osborne committed the UK government to reducing this debt by 2020 but because of Brexit the new Chancellor has said he intends to roll back that policy.
Add to that an existing 30% shortfall in national production compared to the UK’s major competitors. Brexit is likely to exasperate that situation as investment falls away, companies relocate to remain in the single market and the EU blocks any attempts for Britain to remain in the trading block or even the customs union without guarantees of freedom of movement..
I would be very interested to read how the Brexit supporters think their nation is going to prosper given this scenario. It's wishful thinking to believe Britain is heading for anything less than economic meltdown. The current situation is simply the calm before the storm. Markets think short term and actually nothing at all has changed since before the 23 June so why would it?
The ForeX markets are where the clues lie and the 'flash crash' level of €1.15 and Euro parity will arrive next year. It is mine and many others view that Brexit will prove a lunatic agenda for Britain and the future damge it will cause the country incalcuable.
This message was last edited by Mickyfinn on 01/11/2016.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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According to the IMF Public debt as% of GDP
Belgium 107
France 87
Germany 80
Greece 179
Italy 132
Ireland 118
Portugal 129
UK 83
USA 104
Is a pattern appearing here?
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Hugh
Paying ones debts is not a bad thing. The problem with austerity is that it was done too savagely. This isnt a case of not happy either way, its a case of paying ones debts in a way that isnt harmful. We dont appear to have had that here in the UK. Instead, they just threw people out on the scrap heap in their haste.
Its not mindfulness to want to pay your debts in a controlled manner. Its just common sense.
tteedd
Must be very worrying for Nissan that everyone knows what is going on in their boardroom. If it is all getting to their competitors they may shut up shop.
Good news:
Stock market up showing confidence in trade and industry.
Manufacturing output up.
Consumer sale up.
Unemployment down
Employment up.
Bad news:
National debt still increasing.
Many of your points are very skewed, and have been answered before. I'll respond again, because I dont want lies repeated often enough that they are believe to be the outcome here.
Stock Market up - the reasons you've quoted are complete fabrication. The pounds has dropped heavily, making it cheaper for foreign investment funds to buy FTSE assets, generally over the long term. Added to this, many of the FTSE firms are US based, and the profits they report appear bigger in our local currency, because our currency has dropped. It makes profits "look" bigger. That is why the market is up. Please stop propagating your lies.
Manufacturing output up - with the pound down, manufacturing is expected to increase. I have no problem with this as a statement, but have you considered the flip side? Our economy imports more than it exports (balance of trade). Again, our currency being devalued, means we must pay a lot more for these imports. This in turn means a reduced standard of living. Imports v exports point.
The rest of your points I havent seen information on yet, and many of them in economics terms are what we call "lagged indicators". This means we see the results after a period of time. Yes, employment numbers are good. And so they should be, because after the GFC, the country worked hard to get itself back on an even keel.
But I think its premature to be crowing about things, because there will be businesses that have defered investment, waiting to see what happens. No one knows what will happen, and business hates uncertainty. Some businesses will have already made their plans to relocate, and some again have already opened offices on the continent, or expanded their operations in preparation for what they believe is coming.
You wont see significant changes in the composition of a 64 million person economy for quite some time. About the only real metric we have is the pound for now, as that is not a lagged indicator, but a live one.
And how is that working out for you now?
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But I think its premature to be crowing about things
That at the very least is over egging it. I was answering a direct question. Reading this board most subscribers have us whirling into a black hole.
My view is very much that even if the indicators were bad we did the right thing for our democracy and that in the long term we should be pro-active enough to run an efficient economy. But I agree that depends on us electing sensible representitives.
If you look dispationately at the value of the pound you will see that it started it's slide last November and apart from the wiggle around June 23 has dropped almost linearly. There is too much 'hoo ha' blaming everything on Brexit (whether it is actually happening or not). If the referendum had not happened it would be very clear to every one that the drop in the pound had been due to quantitive easing (printing money). If the mechanisms are as you say (and I do not dissagree) then much of it would have happened anyway. But whatever, we are not in free fall as was and is being predicted.
This message was last edited by tteedd on 01/11/2016.
This message was last edited by tteedd on 01/11/2016.
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