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European leaders have come to a 27-nation consensus that a “hard Brexit” is likely to be the only way to see off future populist insurgencies, which could lead to the break-up of the EU.
According to senior officials at the highest levels of European governments, allowing Britain favourable terms of exit could represent an existential danger to the EU, since it would encourage similar demands from other countries with significant Eurosceptic movements.
One top EU diplomat told the Observer: “If you British are not prepared to compromise on free movement, the only way to deal with Brexit is hard Brexit. Otherwise we would be seen to be giving in to a country that is leaving. That would be fatal.”
The Observer 20 November
A hard Brexit defined.
This option would come into force if the UK splits from the EU's single-market and the bloc's customs union, while failing to negotiate a free trade agreement with Brussels.
The position would give the UK a similar status to Russia or Brazil, who can trade with EU nations but faces tariffs – and vice versa.
The advantages are that Britain would not have to pay contributions to Brussels, would not have to sign-up to free movement rule – a top issue during the EU referendum campaign – and the government would be able to negotiate free trade deals with non-EU nations.
Another problem for the UK is that it joined the WTO as a member of the EU. It is expected, therefore, that Britain would have to negotiate new and updated terms for its WTO membership.
"If we leave the EU, then we would need all other WTO members to agree how the UK will take on the rights and obligations that we have formerly taken as a part of the EU," a UK government paper warned in February.
The Treasury have told ministers this hard Brexit option could cut the UK's GDP by up to 9.5% and see the ministry miss out on £66bn per year in tax revenues, according to The Times.
International Business Times.11 October
This message was last edited by Mickyfinn on 20/11/2016.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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I have another question, as things currently stand is it illegal to deport EU nationals that are in UK prisons back to the EU country from which they originate?
Why is it seen as "favourable terms" and not the norm, to have flexibility built into a system to deter movements by those demonstrating uncivilised and illegal behaviour?
This message was last edited by ads on 20/11/2016.
This message was last edited by ads on 20/11/2016.
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tenerife
That the UK DECIDES to give out is not the case: aren't we obliged to treat all EU citizens the same?
In simple terms the rules state that EU citizens must have the same rights as those citizens of that state
Which is why Spain for example has differnet rules for expats regarding benefts and heath care i.e. contibution and Spanish citizen based and set by the Spanish govt.
The UK rules are residency based and set by the UK govt NEITHER are set by the EU
Easiest example is a 35 year old UK citizen moves to Spain and takes up residency he is NOT entilted to Spanish health care or welfare benefits until he starts work and contributes
A 35 year old Spaniard moves to UK and takes up residency he is then entiltled to benefits and health care as a resident of the UK
the freedom of movement gives the residency and rights to work
Both countries being members of EU and both abide by their OWN rules not the EU's
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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More project fear from certain people....
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Senior EU officials are increasingly worried that Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as US President will trigger a domino effect and lead to populist, far-right candidates sweeping to power in elections in France and Germany next year.
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Jarvi
far-right candidates sweeping to power in elections in France and Germany next year.
More project fear
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Tadd1966,
Didn't i just say that, but in a lot fewer words!
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tenerife
maybe I mis undertsood and apologies if I did but you said
That the UK DECIDES to give out is not the case
My point is it is the case
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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My point is that it doesn't decide; it has to, in order to conform to EU rules.
This message was last edited by tenerife on 20/11/2016.
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There is no such thing as hard or soft Brexits. These are just constructs by people who do not want to leave, to muddy the waters.
We voted to leave the EU. Not for some half way house.
We leave the EU and the government does what any free democratic government does and negociates the best treaties on trade and relations that it can.
This message was last edited by tteedd on 20/11/2016.
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Tadd, so under the current system the UK is obliged to provide all the benefits intended to incentivise it's own nationals back into work ( to practically ease that transient process) to all without any EU flexibility structures in place to deter abuse? I thought Free movement was intended to ease passage of people to work, not to "use" the benefit system of any one state to advantage their relative earning capacity?
This message was last edited by ads on 20/11/2016.
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Well said teedd. Its fortunate that some of the people on here aren't negotiating or we would end up with exactly the same as we have now, or probably worse. What we want is a fair, reasonable and sensible Brexit, but that won't happen because the EUSSR are scared that other people may want freedom, and as far as they are concerned dictatorship rules. Of course DC and GO on here keep asking why the government doesn't say what they are going for. David Cameron dealt his hand early and the EUSSR shafted him, just like they would a second time given the chance.
The remoaners are determined to stop Brexit, hard luck its going to happen, its called democracy.
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tenerife
the UK decides the policy on who is entiltled to benefits and health care not the EU
The fact that the UK is residency based this entiltles EU citizens (or anyone else) who resides in the UK to the same
The UK has the option to change the policies to a contribution (citizen) based system (as Spain have) if it wishes and this would have nothing do to with the EU but would remain within teh EU rules.
So it is up to the UK to decide if it wishes to change its own internal policies and remain within EU rules
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Yes i know; but in doing so we would have to cut the benefits to our own citizens; highly unlikely.
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i agree it is unlikely but maybe we should because the benefits sytems to UK citizens in itlself is far too generous and IMO is the root cause of the problem not the EU or its rules
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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The term "Hard Brexit" was first coined by the respected journalist and chief economics commentator of the FT Martin Wolf,on 20 September 2016.
Brexit means Brexit.” As circular as it is concise, this three-word sentence tells us much about the style of Theresa May, the UK prime minister. I take this to mean that the UK will, in her view, formally leave the EU, without the option of a second referendum or a parliamentary override. If so, it seems overwhelmingly likely that the outcome will be “hard Brexit”.
By “hard Brexit” I mean a departure not only from the EU but also from the customs union and the single market. The UK should, however, end up with a free-trade arrangement that covers goods and possibly some parts of services and, one hopes, liberal travel arrangements. But the “passporting” of UK-based financial institutions would end and London would cease to be the EU’s unrivalled financial capital. The UK and the EU would also impose controls on their nationals’ ability to work in one another’s economies.
This is not the outcome many desire. As the Japanese government has made brutally clear, many Japanese businesses invested in the UK in the justified belief that the latter would provide a stable base for trade with the rest of the EU on terms as favourable as those available to producers anywhere else. These businesses are understandably worried about their prospects. The same applies to many others whose plans were made on the assumption that the UK had a settled policy of staying inside the EU.
“Hard Brexit” would disrupt their plans. Should the UK leave the customs union and enter a free-trade agreement with the EU, rules of origin would apply to exports of goods from the UK to the EU. This standard bureaucratic procedure would be needed to ensure that imports into the UK did not become a route to circumvent the EU’s external tariff. Rules of origin would put UK-based exporters at a disadvantage vis-à-vis those based in the EU. The same would be true for, in particular, banks should the UK leave the single market.
Why then is a hard Brexit the most likely outcome? My belief rests on the view that this UK government will not seek to reverse the result of the vote and that it will feel obliged to impose controls on immigration from the EU and to free itself from the bloc’s regulations overseen by its judicial processes.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Good, Lets get on with it...
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Tadd,
Would you define "generous" as including provision for those nationals who have been directly disadvantaged by the EU freedom of movement system which has compromised the supply and demand chain, such realities as increasing rents, decreasing opportunities for low skilled work, lowering of earning capacity, increase in part-time work that has led to major increase in zero hours contracts which have compromised worker's rights etc?
Do not forget that many who voted to leave came from this disadvantaged background and your solution would further disadvantage them. Surely not right in this day and age, and ironically works in contradiction to EU principles.
No, the freedom of movement system needs review and far greater flexibility if it is to remain a fair and workable system across member states.
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It must be a terrible time to be a Leaver when it is clear that panic has set in at the Government ( 60 MP's shouting for Hard Brexit Now. Senior Brexit Tory MP's saying drop the Supreme Court Appeal now because we are going to loose.)
Parliament saying there is no plan. Populace shouting for money for the NHS that was promised by the OUTS (that does not exist), populace shouting for immigration control, which the Government can't deliver on lest they screw business. Big Business shouting for assurances and support if they are less well off as a result of Brexit.
Never have so many offered so much to everybody if they Leave but be so incapable of delivering anything to anybody if they Leave.
You can tell by the tone of the comments who feels like they are loosing on this forum and it is not those who voted to Remain.
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its a great time, lets get on with it
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