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Another good post
However as said before most of what you said could apply across regions and nations of the uk
Inequality in wages hosing cost of living etc etc
How would you feel about Cornwall or Humberside or Yorkshire or London wanting their own control etc
Same mismanagement and beaurocracy at uk govt level and local level and a lot of distrust of politicians and fat cats
Dictated to by Westminster etc etc etc
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“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Thanks Tadd and I understand your observations.
But you can't compare accountability of EU to UK. David Cameron stood down...Can you imagine the EU Commissioners standing down in the face of such failures to heed citizen concern and disillusionment with their leadership and failure to address the need for reform?
Not to mention accessibility in the UK to MPs via constituency surgeries and ability to pressure from within the UK as opposed to the unwieldly EU.
UK regions are accountable in so much as of course they depend upon citizen proactivity, but the UK has far greater transparency, just as one example via televised select committees where individuals are challenged when necessary, or expert opinions sought with a view to constant review and necessary reforms.
Then the UK has weekly live and respected TV debates re ongoing regional as well as national issues etc. There are far more opportunities to highlight citizen concerns and where necessary create pressure from within.
Theresa May to date seems to be giving far greater focus to citizen concerns, but obviously time will tell if her endeavours and determination to gain mutual benefits with the EU, alongside ongoing UK reform, will succeed. Early days on that score.
Having said all of that, the Brexit referendum has done a great deal to provide the opportunity for citizens to understand EU problems from a far wider perspective, whilst encouraging debate with regard to national short comings, but that does not detract from the realisation that the EU has compromised all too many and must reform for the sake of all EU citizens.
I sincerely hope that Brexit will prove the catalyst for well overdue reform of the EU but in that process we all have to strive for mutually beneficial outcomes instead of allowing EU Commissioners and ideologs to continue with what appears an unforgiveable divide and rule mentality.
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Keep living in hope Ads, even Rumanian citizens are taking to the streets in protests against, you guessed it, corrupt politicians.
The current government is proposing an amnesty for politicians who have been guilty of defrauding less than than 40 thousand euros in an attempt to relieve pressure on the court system.
Keep protesting people, let's have some integrity out there.
In another twist of fate though Mr Trump is considering repealing most of the 2012 laws and regulations on banks to prevent a further financial crisis, so let the banks lose and the world beware.
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It is not the EU that is intransigent but national governments. If the EU interferes with national sovereignty they get criticised. If they do too little they get criticised. EU states retain their own sovereignty within treaty arrangements and a rule of law which their elected sovereign parliaments approve.
When things go wrong the British prefer to blame the EU when in fact Europeans know it’s their own elected government at fault.
There is little anti- EU sentiment among Europeans except those on the far right of the political spectrum. You need to ask yourself why that is. Europe and the EU in general terms works well for the vast majority of Europe’s people.
If all the things I read on here about the EU were true would there not be more popular opposition for change? The economic malaise the Eurozone has suffered in recent years was the fault of global events to which every country is subject to. Europe emerged slowly from recession because they have a single currency. That was a political decision not an economic one designed to unify a future federal state.
Perhaps now with Britain gone the federal dream of a unified Europe can now proceed quickly. I look forward to it and optimistically believe Europe will go from strength to strength..
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Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Mickyfinn you don't half come out with some crap a Federal state..... you what ........Great Britain is what it is and what it is and always has been a United Kingdom.you and people like that you will say and do anything to try and put your homeland down for some reason or other .
This message was last edited by windtalker on 04/02/2017.
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I was referring to the EU not the UK. Please read the post again.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Yes Hugh I agree at the moment the UK economy has proved resilient to the Brexit vote. However there are valid reasons for that.
1. Consumers believe in the UK
2. Industry believes in the UK
3. The economic predictions were a load of b......s
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Interest rates are low almost world wide so why is the UK different?
It is easy to start your calculations on a peak, is would be more honest to start in Feb when the campaign started (7% on a downward long term trend).
Britain may remain a member of the EU for two years. But it will hardly be a full member once article 50 is served and many in the EU want a fast conclusion even if it is interim.
Just admit that the catastrophy predicted by the remainers never happened. We did not have an emergency budget, pensions were not cut and foreign investors have continued to invest rathert than fleeing.
Everytime the BoE revises it's figures they are upward. This is the best deep recession I've ever been in!
This message was last edited by tteedd on 04/02/2017.
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The markets have priced in article 50. I expect little to change until the UK leaves the EU or the agreement is published which may be one of the same thing. Prior to the referendum the expectation was for UK rate hikes to follow those of the US. With Brexit and Trump everything is unpredictable. Hence currency weakness on both sides of the Atlantic.
Economies and markets are all about consumer and investor confidence. Overseas investors matter most to the UK and their confidence is crucial. If the UK manages a good deal the economy should stabalise. If not I expect and so do many investors for the UK to tank.
In all this uncertainty it's entirely possible that in the near term the Euro will become the safe haven currency.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Mickyfinn With Brexit and Trump everything is unpredictable.
I completely agree. Not much point in posting anymore..
This message was last edited by Elsietanner on 04/02/2017.
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NO SNIDE COMMENTS PLEASE. STICK TO THE THREAD SUBJECT.
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Mickey
Theceuro is doomed, it is the single biggest problem for many of the 27 member states and serves only to maintain German goods and exports at realistic prices.
The current rise is short term, just as you suggest UK growth numbers are.
EU growth will see a slow down after its recent bounce from the bottom due to the current stronger value of the EUro as its exports become more uncompetitive.
PS I see Honda now building the new Civic for world wide exports in Swindon, not much confidence there then.
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Economists on the right of the political spectrum have been writing off the Euro ever since its inception. The Euro survived its greatest test during the recession. The ECB supported the currency then with whatever it took.
I have never been a fan of the single currency largely because of the way it was originally conceived without a single taxation area to run in tandem across the entire EZ .
The Euro is one of the strongest currencies in the world supported by the economies and the political will of 27 industrialised nations. Stating that the currency is doomed is more wishful thinking on your part. It is not going to happen.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Micky
i see the Euro as a flag standard for the committee of the EU rather than a currency to be idolised in that way. It was unfair to lock all the nations into an entry point flotation, and many of the members who are semi industrialised find it restrictive to their own economies.
Great debts have been brought about by this currency experiment, and great hardships. Although it is a bankers and speculators delight.
Its a modern invention, a product of financial expediency, it is widely accepted that the UK made a very great decision not to join it.
In fact, the U.K. Seem to be the real leaders in the EU, the other nations seem simply to be followers!!!!
This message was last edited by briando55 on 05/02/2017.
This message was last edited by briando55 on 05/02/2017.
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Best wishes, Brian
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Brian - i see the Euro as a flag standard for the committee of the EU rather than a currency to be idolised in that way. It was unfair to lock all the nations into an entry point flotation, and many of the members who are semi industrialised find it restrictive to their own economies.
Yes I agree with that. It was regarded by most nations at the time as a price worth paying for further political integration and to climb aboard the train. (Remember that).. The price has been high especially for Greece, Portugal and Spain during the recession.
To understand the mechanics of the single currency you need first to see the bigger picture of the intended movement toward Federalism which is the political path of the EU. The Euro was and remains an important component of that.
In other words if the Euro fails so does the entire European project and that is not likely. As long as that political direction of travel exists the Euro will be supported by all means available to the ECB and the Commission.
Currency markets understand that so shorting the currency is not one of the wisest trades. To predict the Euros demise is just plain daft and ill-informed in my view.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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According to leading economist including the Bank of England and none EU using countries the euro is being deliberately undervalued by approximately 25% to boost trade from the EU ..... apparently the German government is the biggest benefactor, as they are the biggest exporters from the EU .
This message was last edited by windtalker on 05/02/2017.
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It was Trump who said that. Markets value currency not some cloak and dagger operation by government EU or otherwise..Sterling is currently undervalued by all fair value estimates. Uncertainty both economic and politically does that.
The ECB bond buying process will likely taper soon. Watch the Euro rise when they are no longer printing money.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Sterling is currently undervalued by all fair value estimates
What fair value estimates? - the internationaly renowned Mickfinn index?
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Not my opinion which as you say matters not but the majority of international economists value 'fair value' Sterling at $1.47.
The uncertainty after the Brexit vote until the settlement will continue to supress the currency. Inflation and interest rate speculation in the Uk later in the year may see modest rises in the currency value but they are unlikely to last long.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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majority of international economists value 'fair value' Sterling
Who?
................................................................
Sterling against the Euro is between 3 and 6% below it's 8 year median and average.
Sterling continued it's slide from Nov 15 to Oct 16 with a hump between may/june 16 (around the time of the vote).
Given the three rounds of quantative easing in 14/15 this would have been unremarkable had the BREXIT hump not been there.
Stirling is now trading above the level established between Nov 15 and Oct 16 which is not surprising given the good performance of the markets.
This message was last edited by tteedd on 05/02/2017.
This message was last edited by tteedd on 05/02/2017.
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euro is being deliberately undervalued by approximately 25% to boost trade from the EU
The vale of the euro has favoured Germany and constricted the economies of the southern states for some years now.
Germany and to some extent the other northen states using the euro will at some stage have to take social responsibility for the impoverishment of southern europe if the euro is not to fail as a common currency.
Probably the only good thing Gordon Brown ever did was to keep us out.
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So typical of the daydream B*Leavers postering on here. Some says the Euro is doomed, some say it is undervalued by 25% and then they all agree with each other.
Economics and fundamentals obviously not the strong point of most. The USD, CAD, the Ruble and most currencies hold gold reserves roughly valued at 2% of their GDP. The UK is in the basement at less than 1% of GDP and the Gold Powerhouse of the world in terms of the ratio of Gold Value to GDP is...EU at just over 4%. The Euro is not going to vanish with that sort of muscle. GBP should ahve joined the Euro from the outset and I hope one day it still will.
** EDITED - Against forum rules **
This message was last edited by eos_moderators on 2/6/2017 11:29:00 PM.
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