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The tomato industry in Thanet faces the same future after Brexit because they will lose their access to Europe’s markets cost free. They could perhaps become a theme park for winter sunbathing under glass.
Micky
The origin of this discussion was someone complaining that tomatoes now cost 40% more, I merely suggested that apart from seasonal differences, that greenhouses such as Thanet Earth using modern growing techniques not like Soanish greenhouses could further develop in the UK to feed thexUK market, I never suggested they would export into Europe.
As Ads correctly pounds out, if tomatoes become too expensive we will change our eating habits. Or of course buy them from Africa, South America or whoever needs an export market.
Law of diminishing returns.
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There would appear to be a view expressed on here that IF tariffs were introduced that it would not matter to Spanish producers of tomatoes, olives, lettuce or oranges, French producers of wine and cheese, German manufacturers of cars and domestic goods, Danish suppliers of bacon, Italy producers of pasta etc. Etc. As these suppliers would easily be able to sell these products to the 500 mill strong EU market with no trouble.
I am not entirely sure it would work like that, as the UK is one of the biggest consumers of many of these products, I don't think a European market of high unemployment would easily fill the hole left by the Brits.
I also think that many posters underestimate the power of big business in the EU, I m sure the politicians of 27 countries may well find it difficult to tell their leading manufacturers, growers and labour intensive industries that the UK will no longer buy their products due to tariffs.
Realise the world is currently run by business NOT politicians and as Ads has previously pointed out, the great unwashed public are just beginning to realise that it is generally to the benefit of shareholders and CEOs not the workers and customers.
A great political awakening is taking shape and voters everywhere are starting to realise that they do in fact wield some power and influence over an establishment that has failed them for 40 years.
We had an Arab Spring perhaps we are witnessing the start of a European Explosion or American Adventure.
Right or wrong, we do need to plough a new path the old one was not helping, as most of our wealth has been gained from rising asset prices emanating from ever expanding debt that someone else will be responsible for.
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Oh my god... Ed Balls leaves strictly.
Not to worry though Tony Blair, Neil Kinnock & John Major said there may be a way back.
Not enough people voted for him to REMAIN, but more would have voted if they had not been lied to, those
who wanted Ed Balls to LEAVE had put it about that Ed Balls could not dance, there were even rumours that they wrote this across a 'big red bus'.
Tony Blair, Neil Kinnock & John Major have said they could demand that we are allowed to VOTE AGAIN and there will now be sufficient people that would CHANGE THEIR MINDS and vote for Ed Balls to REMAIN.
Apparently the strictly vote is only ADVISORY and so therefore can be ignored, so Ed Balls should turn up on Monday for training.
As from next year all strictly votes will be announced on a Sunday night, but not ratified until going before the house of lords on a Friday and only then will it be clear if the public vote was the correct one. If the public vote does not concur with the house of lords there will be another vote until the public reaches a vote that agrees with the house of lords.
Keep Dancing
This message was last edited by BigAl2015 on 28/11/2016.
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Article.127
The government is facing a legal battle over whether the UK stays inside the single market after it has left the EU, the BBC has learned.
Lawyers say uncertainty over the UK's European Economic Area membership means ministers could be stopped from taking Britain out of the single market.
They will argue the UK will not leave the EEA automatically when it leaves the EU and Parliament should decide.
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Hugh wrote:
A great political awakening is taking shape and voters everywhere are starting to realise that they do in fact wield some power and influence over an establishment that has failed them for 40 years.
The awakening as you call it is simply the disillusionment of people with politics in general and with the politicians. There is no real sign of ideological shifts, just a yearning to try something new. An out with the old in with the new mentality.
Then so the march of the political right across the world continues. With the election of François Fillon as the Republican candidate in the presidential elections in France next year.
Britain may have a chance of a soft Brexit. Or at least better terms than had Hollande still been there. The political left in France is totally discredited in the eyes of the population. Fillon is virtually certain to win and take support from Le Pen.
If Mrs May has any political sense she will wait until his appointment before triggering article 50. Fillon is an admirer of Thatcher and an Anglophile. He has a British wife.
He said “France is more rightwing than it has ever been,” and that he was the only one able to tap into that mood and win France’s “ideological battle”. He warned that France was “on the verge of revolt” and said his plan to slash half a million public sector jobs, reduce the welfare state, cut taxes for the rich and loosen business regulations was the only possible response for a demoralised country struggling with mass unemployment, a sluggish economy and a major terrorist threat.
Not quite a French Trump more a French Thatcher who wants to shake up a nation that badly needs it.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Just did a 5 minute search on internet and found this (2014 data)
http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/esp/
Spain’s top export figures in 2014
France – $41.7B
Germany - $31.78B
Portugal - $25.2B
UK – $22B
Italy- $21.7B
Total exports were $299B so Spain actually exported 7.35% of its total export to UK – really a big worry NOT. As a balance imports from UK to Spain were $22B
France exports
Germany – $85.4B
Belgium - $47.4B
UK – $41.5B
Total exports were $571B which to UK is 7.3%. UK are not in France’s top 5 of importers
As a balance imports from UK to France were $27B
Similar story across other EU states (I did not look at all of them)
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Ha. The ed balls comment was funny big al. Some wag said the battle of Hastings should have brought about a discussion over the possibility of a hard or soft Norman invasion before we let them take over.
So tomatoes then. If it costs more to export and more to import because of the amount people buy in Germany ( as was said), we by about the third highest amount, so in business terms we should be able to buy better than a tariff suggests.
otherwise we buy from somewhere else, which threatens the producers and we have a negotiating position.
Isnt that how it works folks!
Obviously I'm using tomatoes as an easy to understand commodity because I get lost in the world of cut and paste that sometimes adorns these pages.
_______________________
Best wishes, Brian
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Why would Spanish producers be willing to sell their tomatoes to Britain 10% cheaper than those they sell to Germany or France? There would need to be a greater incentive than just the third or fourth largest market. In practice what happens is producers look for new markets to replace those they have lost to keep their margins in place.
Sure Spain will still sell to Britain after Brexit but consumers will have to pay the higher tariff costs. Brexit comes at a cost for ordinary people. It's time they that supported it admit the truth.
I would prefer to buy my clothing from the USA. It is cheaper and better made. However once the tariffs are applied the cost is not worth it. So I buy from other markets where the tariffs don't exists. Free trade works, tariff trade only works when margins are slashed and if you are in business where is the incentive so to do?
This message was last edited by Mickyfinn on 28/11/2016.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Mickeyfinn,
Let's hope that France learns lessons about the pace of change however (remember the civil unrest during the Thatcher years) and pay heed to the need for citizens not to be used as political pawns in that process, so that there are plans put in place to reskill where appropriate, to provide alternative opportunities by developing their nation and people by diversifying their skill set, embrace new technologies, to seek out new growth opportunities, so that those struggling to find work have greater opportunities within their own country and not become too dependent on other member states to always pick up the slack. But therein lies the problem.....allow others the right to control according to their realistic needs, to realistically accommodate others where possible, rather than a strict dictat that fails to take account of citizens genuine firsthand concerns and a country's ability to "cope". There has to be some compassion and forward planning to adequately re-accommodate and provide alternative options/ incentives to reskill etc in that transitional period, for those who through no fault of their own find themselves without work.
You make reference to " shake up a nation", Mickeyfinn, but when you look to the creation of that nation state, it has been influenced by politicians who have allowed such a structure to exist and citizens have had all too little say in that structure. So to expect them to pay the price for " swift correction" without due consideration to plan for that transitional process would be wrong. It's finding that balance and the need to adequately forward plan for such eventualities that hopefully will permit a smoother transition and minimise civil unrest during that process.
The UK has acted as a classic example to learn from with regard to Brexit, when a swift unplanned and an inflexible approach ( without adequate and fair transitional controls in place both from Govt and EU alike) led to disillusionment with the status quo and the potential to impact cohesion and division if not managed properly and importantly within a realistic timeframes. But also to listen and pay heed to aspects that are highly meaningful to citizens, such as justice, environment, community, accountability, poverty, debt etc.
All part of the wider perspective that we expect our politicians and bureaucrats alike to make better preparation for, to look to real practicalities, review of best practice elsewhere and learn lessons from failures ( we all make mistakes!), and not just think in terms of theory or ideology. Citizens are just as important in this complex equation and as Hughman has reinforced, never lose sight of accumulating debt in that process....
Common sense to most of us to be honest, but somehow common sense gets lost in political theory or protection of powerful elites. We all need less of the extremes and more rational thinking, no? But never be too proud to review and correct/reform failing policy.
This message was last edited by ads on 28/11/2016.
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Why would Spanish producers be willing to sell their tomatoes to Britain 10% cheaper than those they sell to Germany or France? There would need to be a greater incentive than just the third or fourth largest market. In practice what happens is producers look for new markets to replace those they have lost to keep their margins in place.
I suggest that they will be producing enough to supply the market as it stands and that losing a large customer means they have to down production or increase negotiation. When it's a large customer they lose, it's a large hole in their trading arrangements etc
Just because the EU says you must charge more for your produce, this doesn't likely meet the current economic arrangements of labour, profit margins etc. Does it?
(Sorry for sticking to tomatoes but it's much easier to understand economics in this way rather than taking huge sweeping comments).
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Best wishes, Brian
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38126899
Yet another legal challenge coming
Yes you could say this is trying to find a loophole by the remainers and undermining the “will of the people” but some could just as easily argue the UK govt has to follow the law of the land
However, whatever the opinion on these legal challenges is, it just proves the incompetence of Cameron’s manifesto (vote winning) promise of a vote on exiting the EU.
The Tory party under Cameron simply did not do enough, or any detailed, due diligence on all outcomes especially legal implications, the detail and effect on or of other agreements, the law etc. and have made a situation so divisive within the UK the result being a mess of uncertainty and legal challenges which will cost the tax payer a fortune
All could have been avoided with a full period of due diligence and clarity of all possible outcomes before the vote was allowed to happen.
How long before someone actually has the balls to stand up and declare the vote impractical, the solution unworkable, null and void etc. and a revote is needed with full clarity of all outcomes / options and what information and question(s) needs to put out the electorate.
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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I don't think anyone in the UK will need to stand up and declare the vote impractical.
TM will,attempt to trigger article 50 in March as promised, there will probably be all sorts of appeals and delaying tactics tried on BUT during the 2 year negotiation, the political changes in Italy, France, and even Germany will be far more important to these countries and the swing will definitely be away from an EU in its current format or role, so perhaps not even an EU left to leave.
I think the pen pushers in Brussels will be busy re negotiating trade deals for ALL and complete free movement of people will most certainly be reconsidered and altered.
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hugh_man
Some may say the vote needs to be declared null & void etc. only time will tell if another legal challenge comes along or how these current legal challenges are resolved legally
Yes on Article 50 you are right but the report states that Article 50 has no means to exit the EEA neother does teh EEA and another Article 127 may be need to be triggered which is not what was voted on
The govt have assumed (which is incomptence and a wrong assumption) that EU exit means EEA exit and legally this is in question now.
Triggering Article 127 would require a debate and vote in Parlaiment (which will add support to the legal challenge on triggerin Article 50) but maybe it should have been part of the Brexit vote or do we now need another vote on EEA membership or leave it to Parlaiment asit is outside teh scope of teh exiting the EU
So much mess that looks very unlikley to end soon or before March 2017
How much of the tax payers money is going to be wasted on legal challenges due to incompetence of the govt, who will be acountable for these legal costs if the govt loses. If they had done proper due diligence we may not be in thsi mess. The govt are NOT above the law and they shoudl know better
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Tadd wrote:
How long before someone actually has the balls to stand up and declare the vote impractical, the solution unworkable, null and void etc. and a revote is needed with full clarity of all outcomes / options and what information and question(s) needs to put out the electorate.
Unfortunately that requires political courage which I have seen no evidence of among the current government.
The blindingly obvious move is to call a general election, declare the terms for exit and let the people decide. Mrs May was not elected by anyone, she got the job by default and that never gives a prime minister status. Gordon Brown never really had any authority in his party or in the country.
I think if that were done and the remainer’s lost again by the combined opposition losing, most would accept it and be content. May would then have great stature and authority in the country and across the world going forward.
The coming by-election in Richmond may be a litmus test for that idea. If the Lib Dems are soundly beaten it may encourage the government to take this course and be done with the legal squabbles and procedural shananakins once and for all. That is of course if they really want Brexit to happen and I'm not really convinced they do, with a few exceptions.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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mickyfinn
I agree with most of what you say
one small point
Mrs May was not elected by anyone,
Mrs May was elected by her constituents as an MP then elected by her party to lead the party (same as Brown, Callaghan, Douglas-Hume, Macmillan, Churchill and Major). The voting public do not have a vote for a PM although many think they do
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Mickyfinn
1. As said, we don't vote for a Prime Minister, the other MPs do. Our history is littered with PMs that have not actually got into that position by winning a general election. Apart from Theresa May and Gordon Brown there was James Callaghan, Neville Chamberlain and Arthur Balfour (that's just from the 20th C to now).
2. The Prime Minister can no longer call a General Election. They are now a fixed term held every 5 years and the date is fixed. If two thirds of the total number of MPs calls for an election, one could be held before the 5 years is up or if there is a vote of no confidence in the governent. It is no longer in the power of the Prime Minister to call an election.
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So we are GOING to have our CAKE and EAT it on a NORWAY super HYBRID DEAL
Best OUTCOME for ALL UNVOLVED
WELL done EU good decision at LAST
Love Hugh xx
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Done the Spain thing Happier in the UK
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Hugh. Why do your capitals keep coming on and off when your typing a message.
It makes it harder to read and looks a bit daft to be honest. Any chance you can get your keyboard sorted out (maybe it should be a EU standard issue mate).
_______________________
Best wishes, Brian
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fOR YOUR INFORMATION NOT MY POST mp
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"JEAN-CLAUDE JUNCKER has begged EU leaders not to hold in-out referendums because he fears it will backfire and voters will choose to LEAVE. The beleaguered European Commission president gave the desperate cry to members as the EU superstate dream slips from Brussels’ grasp following Britain’s momentous Brexit vote.Terrified Mr Juncker admitted he knows European’s have a “lack of love” for the Brussels club.His desperate plea come as Austria’s presidential favourite, Norbert Hofer, threatened to hold a referendum to cut ties with the crumbling bloc if he takes power this weekend. And after criticism of his hardline rhetoric calling for Britain to be punished he toned down his language and asked for a more measured approach. He said: “The British have had their say by universal suffrage. I hope others do not do the same. “But, regarding the UK, we must not come at this in the spirit of revenge. We must sort out the problems this has caused for the UK and for Europeans."
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