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The EU Trade talks with Canada have been going on for seven years.
It is the clash of free trade versus protectionism now being played out in the UK and all over Europe. If Ceta falls, there’s not much hope for the proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between Europe and the US, and very little prospect of the post-Brexit UK getting the sort of free trade deal it wants with the EU.
What then for Britain? Tariffs of around 20% upwards on any European imports and the same for UK exports to Europe. One may cancel out the other but it's bound to stiffle trade. Then there is years of negotiating trade deals from the back of the queue with other nations. UK growth will almost certainly collapse in the meantime unless Sterling falls further to compensate for the imposed tariff structures.
In fact that will almost certainly be the reality because the British have indicated they won’t give any concessions on free movement because that';s what the population voted for.
Rock and a hard place comes to mind..
This message was last edited by Mickyfinn on 22/10/2016.
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Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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mikyfinn
good post but
because the British have indicated they won’t give any concessions on free movement because that';s what the population voted for.
where were these concessions of free movement on the voting form, the vote was in or out of the EU - NOTHING else and all of this is the guesswork and scaremongering - yes the brexiters were saying this but NO commitment, plan on how, when or even if
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“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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"It's this government who has chosen to make a 'battle' out of Brexit. It became immediately combative from the British side once Brexit was a done deal."
What on earth is that all about? Seems to me that most people complain that the government is not doing anything. One side thinks it is high time we instigated article 50 and started negociating and the other thinks the government should be beavering away producing plans for them to agree to.
The current position is that we have free trade (although some EU countries are obstructive when they feel like it). If I were negotiating, that is the point I would start at.
My guess is that (as things are) the Brexiteers will get an iterim deal provided we continue payments on a sliding scale. The interim deal will then last a long time as no-one can agree to anything else. However there could be some big surprises in store as there seems to be a growing focus of opinion in the EU that our leaving will be a disaster for them and some form of accomodation should be made. If associate status was offerred it might be difficult to get parliament to turn it down if favour of a complete break. The strong remain sentiment among MP's would probably go for it.
Although most Brexiteers would consider this a disaster a significant minority might go for it if parliament regained sovereignty.
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Mickey FACT you have wasted over 800 Posts on this FORGONE CONCLUSION thats HOURS and HOURS you have wasted of you LIFE with your THEORIES and CONJECTURE because thats all it is and will be for at least two YEARS.
You have offered no CONSTRUCTIVE advice just WORRY and concern for the MEMBERS of the FORUM can you NOT see THATinstead of all this DRIVEL why not put your SKILLS to helping the members by OFFERING advice on how to overcome the problems they FACE like I do
AND stop PRETENDING you and PERRYPOWER are two different ACCOUNTS on here
Love Hugh xxx
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Done the Spain thing Happier in the UK
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All you hear from the Remoners is ,we want another Referendum because people did not know what they voted out for ,and the majority that voted. out are racis and bigots and only voted out because of the uncontrollable emigration .We the people of the UK that OUT where given two choices vote IN or OUT with know mandate on how the country was going to cope whatever which way the vote went .Brexit is coming live with it.
This message was last edited by windtalker on 22/10/2016.
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Quite a few aspects to review here but IMHO this observation is critical.....
It’s a pity world leaders don’t consider potential consequences more often
I couldn't agree more, but I would go further and suggest there is no room for egotistical intransigence or ideological theory that fails to listen to the genuine concerns of citizens or react to uncomfortable realities.
I suspect my observations come from a different perspective to your own Mickeyfinn, as to me the leave vote has been as a direct consequence of inflexibility and intransigence by the EU bureaucrats which left a majority of citizens sufficiently disaffected to decide they wanted to leave the EU.
This intransigence demonstrated an unwillingness to reform a treaty that failed to be sufficiently flexible to deal with the major compromising impacts on member states from swift mass migration of people following mass unemployment, from neglecting the need to permit temporary respite from vigorous rules until such time as member states can adequately accommodate for all those compromising aspects discussed at length in this thread ( infrastructure, healthcare, housing, education etc).
But the saddest aspect of all IMHO is that this inflexibility has incentivised a proliferation of intolerance and divisiveness.... It's unforgiveable.
P. S. I have to live in hope that the leaders and bureaucrats will find mutually agreeable solutions for the sake of all European citizens ( yes we will still be part of Europe) and remain aware that they are in power not only to serve their citizens but to do so in such a manner that does not compromise all that we have achieved to date in terms of creating a relatively civilised tolerant society ( always still more to achieve however!!)
This message was last edited by ads on 22/10/2016.
This message was last edited by ads on 22/10/2016.
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Perry,
My point is that it is easier to reach agreement with 1 country than 27.
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What a BUNCH of CRETINS that EU is all that work for the CANADA agreement boycotted by a 1% minority THE EU is finished went to TESCO tonight and the LEFTOVERS were all FOREIGN says it all REALLY keep buying BRITISH we will get THROUGH this no problem
Come to us CANADA we will buy your GOODS and SERVICES
AND also those MOUNTIES are proper BROKEBACK
Love Hugh xxx
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Done the Spain thing Happier in the UK
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Buy British only - what exactly
Just imagine the fruit and veg sections
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Ads wrote:
I suspect my observations come from a different perspective to your own Mickeyfinn, as to me the leave vote has been as a direct consequence of inflexibility and intransigence by the EU bureaucrats which left a majority of citizens sufficiently disaffected to decide they wanted to leave the EU.
That may be true if you view the negotiations solely from a UK perspective. However the EU is a club of many diverse nations with 260 million people with differing needs, culture, language and opinions. It would create future chaos if you start watering down the key principles of its founding.
You cannot have an organization that has separate rules for individual members that cuts across its raison d'être. ie: Free movement of people. Other nation members, typically Hungary would then request the same thing.
It is not EU intransigence but an important and sole need to preserve the organisations own integrity. Britain has decided it does not want to accept these founding principles. That is accepted and it's right but equally Britain cannot expect access to the single market. One of the entire purposes of the bloc.
I have read reams of detail regarding the established principles of the European Union its history and purpose. Like one of my personal heroes General De Gaulle, I have arrived at the conclusion Britain can never be a truly successful partner in any liberal socialist democratic organisation where it does not have full political control of it's direction.
Better a complete divorce rather than a ‘dogs Brexit’. It’s over for Brits in Europe we just have to get used to it, enjoy being Europeans and take citizenship of the state where we live.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Tenerife, you are wrong. Sorry I am not trying to be mean or pedantic, but Canada negotiated with the EU...that is the same as the UK will have to do. They did not negotiate with the separate countries of the EU. Once the negotiations are done all countries of the EU have to ratify it. In the case of Belgium it is all regions then the federal government. In the case of CETA, one region of Belgium does not want it so nobody in the EU gets it. Got it?
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Mickeyfinn
As much of the original intent was well meant surely when you witness in reality that bureaucratic inflexibility has ironically and sadly incentivised a proliferation of intolerance and divisiveness, you don't sit by and refuse to review these realities that threaten the civilised and tolerant society that has taken so long to achieve, you look to workable solutions and reform to the benefit of all. The refusal to do this for the sake of ideological principles without due consideration of the "consequences" is to deny the uncomfortable realities.
This message was last edited by ads on 23/10/2016.
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With regard to CETA, there are still aspects to this agreement that require far closer examination and in its present form are currently being challenged, as identified in a previous posting.
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Hughjardon,
It is not up to me and mickey to offer you constructive advice regarding Brexit. We opposed it. Now it is up to you and the rest to convince the two of us that you have got it under control and life will be better. But Brexit can't do that because they don't have a clue, they don't have a plan...nor do you. I don't accept that the government's got a plan but it is top secret, and when they pop it out of the envelope at Brexit negotiatioons all will fall into place...the EU will fall into line and ask the UK to be in charge of the world. If you do please explain it to us. You can start by answering these two points:
1. Banks are saying they will relocate and many jobs (thousands) and taxes will go to EU countries as early as spring 2017. How will you deal with the jump in unemployment and how will you fill the tax hole it creates. I presume you will just axe investment in the NHS but please explain.
2. The EU is in debt. How much is it and how much of it will the UK have to take on when we leave? Will it be based on population, land mass, GDP, GNP, past contributions, forecast future contributions? Oh yes we will have to take our share under International Law.
These are real issues...not where the discount veg from Tesco comes from...by all means be a proud Brit, but don't think everything is clear sailing because that is how you imagine it. Basically, if you plan to face tomorrow, do it soon.
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Apparently these are the reasons that have been brought forward to challenge CETA
"The TPP and CETA are gigantic contracts that define, not what corporations can and can’t do in our country. Instead, these contracts define what government itself can and can’t do. Any government action, present and future, that is not clearly defined or not written into the contract can be challenged by corporations in those infamous investor-state tribunals where the public good and environmental protection count for nothing. There, all that matters is entitlement under the contract."
As ever the devil is in the detail of these international contracts and its in all citizens best interests to ensure their democratic rights are not compromised in that process.
This message was last edited by ads on 23/10/2016.
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I am in broad agreement with perrypower here.
I don't think we should look right now at the really big issues of Brexit, they are not in our radar unfortunately.
From the people point of view the first big issue and litmus test is how Japanese investment in the Nissan plant will carry forward. If this is scaled down over the next weeks announcements and plants are thought to be taken into the main body of Europe then the very regions that voted hardest for the leave vote will have an almighty shock.
I for one don't care too much about bankers, the branches will remain open (those that are left) and the capital will not be so much awash with stupid money to raise the living and housing costs for other people trying to settle and make a living.
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Best wishes, Brian
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Raspberries Apples Stawberrys Blueberries Potatoes Kale Swede Carots Tomatoes etc etc
WHEN did you last see a French Banana APART FROM MICK and his ALTER EGO who were up early this MORNING or a KIWI from SPAIN
CHINA AMERICA INDIA will supply anything the EU withdraw from our Supermarket shelves if RUSSIA can survive when every country BOYCOTTS its services then the UK WILL HAVE NO PROBLEMO
No it's the EU who will miss us the MOST not VISA VERSA
I Can quite easily give up the CAVIAR TRUFFLES AND CHAMPAGNE Ho Ho
Love Hugh xxx
PS I did plan ahead I LEFT spain and re established myself in the UK got a nice home food on the table state funded healthcare and it's been a very long summer this YEAR and other BRITS ABROAD should follow my lead before ITS TO LATE
This message was last edited by hughjardon on 23/10/2016.
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Done the Spain thing Happier in the UK
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Ads wrote:
As ever the devil is in the detail of these international contracts and its in all citizens best interests to ensure their democratic rights are not compromised in that process.
So Wallonia's concerns and the EU system work for you then ads. A UK unfettered and desperate for new export markets after Brexit will sign all sorts of trade deals with the rest of the world you may think are a disaster.
Inside the EU there is scrutiny and regulation which is after all your soap box call and is assured.
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Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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I do not suggest that a contract should be signed without due care and attention Mickeyfinn that is my point....the EU appear to be turning a blind eye to this problem by accepting it without due consideration of impact on citizens.
The devil is also in the detail of the treaty arrangements Mickeyfinn and it is here that citizens need to be aware of the realities and the impact on their democratic rights.
There sadly appears much hypocrisy to what the bureaucrats rhetoric implies and how in reality they function with regard to the impact of their decision making on the citizens they are supposed to be representing.
This message was last edited by ads on 23/10/2016.
This message was last edited by ads on 23/10/2016.
This message was last edited by ads on 23/10/2016.
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