BREXIT

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11 Dec 2016 8:52 PM by hugh_man Star rating in Kent/Roda . 1593 posts Send private message

hugh_man´s avatar

Bobaol

I think it is generally accepted that in terms of health, the professionals in our NHS system will treat an ill person, regardless of ability to pay, colour, nationality, creed or whether they are a tourist or not.

This is why our NHS has been so admire as free at the point if delivery.

Health takes precedence over entitlement.

As someone who suffered a heart attack in Spain and was treated brilliantly BUT the ambulance that arrived to tend to me, would not whisk me off to the hospital until my wife produced my EHIC card.

Can you imagine what that press would make of this in the UK.

Most EU Directives are just that, directives not laws and it is up to each country how we interpret them.

I have witnessed this fact on many ocassions dealing with bureaucracy in Spain.

" This is Spain, EU rules aren't for us" I'm sure this occurs in other nations.

The British sense of fair play if you like means that sadly those who wish to can abuse the system of benefits or health.

Can you ever see the UK withdrawing from that attitude of helping those in need as much as we can?

Just Look at how much Brits give to charity, don't see as much of this among the Spanish for instance.





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11 Dec 2016 9:01 PM by hugh_man Star rating in Kent/Roda . 1593 posts Send private message

hugh_man´s avatar

It will also show up all the "we can't do this because of the EU regulations" fibs that get told. Give it a couple of years and they'll only have themselves to blame without the convenience of a EU scapegoat.

 

Bobaol

Sadly you may be right but then the populous will just blame the government of the day, we always want somebody to blame these days because as taxpayers we haven't questioned enough what is being done with our money, or held our politicians to account, until now, when perhaps conveniently we can blame the EU because it is easier blaming someone in authority.





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11 Dec 2016 9:09 PM by bobaol Star rating. 2253 posts Send private message

bobaol´s avatar

Gone a bit off the topic there. I was on about the EU being blamed for the UK systems. If the UK is happy to give healthcare without checking entitlement then good on them. It's just that blaming the EU for doing that seems rather a silly thing to do unless you are now suggesting (well, not you but some) that the UK will change and start checking or charging? When they could have done that under EU rules but didn't seems a rather convoluted argument.

I think, if you look it up, you'll find the Spanish are quite generous to charities as well. UK is up there (though not as generous as Ireland) with other EU countries giving lots as well. To conflate Spain with the entire EU seems a bit odd.

Any chance of pointing out these EU directives that other countries ignore but UK doesn't? ISTR that when an EU country does then the EU jumps on them rather quickly. UK for not following water purity directives, for example. France for banning British beef, Spain for treating non-resident EU citizens differently to residents in tax matters and so on. 

It all boils down to my central point. The EU gets blamed for purely UK policies. Soon have to find someone else to pin the blame on.

 

 





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11 Dec 2016 9:43 PM by tteedd Star rating in Hertfordshire & Punt.... 990 posts Send private message

'The fact both sides lied (primarily the exiters)'

 

There is no point in making such statements if you cannot back them up. At least put 'in my view' before them if you want to be seen as making serious comment.

 

Referendum campaign lies examined

1.       Claim. The bus said ‘we send the EU £350m pw which we will spend on the NHS’.

Examination. The bus said we send the EU £350m pw. // Let’s fund the NHS instead.   The 350m is the gross EU payment figure and misleading (250m is the net figure). However the quotation did not say we will spend 350m on the NHS

 

2.       Claim. The stock market, economy, and pound will crash if the vote is to leave.

Examination. The stockmarket has risen and the economy has out-performed all forecasts. Initial trading caused a fall in the GBP of 10% however the currency has recovered a little and whilst still below the pre-vote figure is above the long term trend set up between November 2015 and May 2016. The fall if maintained will cause an advantage to exporters and may cause long term inflation.

 

3.       Claim. There will have to be an immediate emergency austerity budget.

Examination. No such budget was necessary.

 

4.       Claim. Pensions will have to be cut by up to 20%.

Examination. Not happened and the triple lock confirmed by the new administration until 2020. (Pensioners were identified as the group most likely to vote out).

 

5.       Claim. Two thirds of British jobs are dependent on trade with Europe.

Examination. Fifteen percent of British jobs are linked to trade with Europe. There is no evidence to say that any of these will be lost.

 

6.       Claim. All British proposals in the commission are outvoted.

Examination. Britain is normally in the minority in the commission.

 

7.       Claim. Every household will be £4300 worse off by 2030.

Examination. The result of the same flawed model that predicted immediate damage to the economy. It took worse case figures and assumed a complete failure of exit negotiations leading to large tariffs and no change in the UK’s external trade.

 

8.       Claim. The EU pays out more for research than the total UK payments.

Examination. Clearly nonsense but widely stated by some academics (one hopes their speciality is not mathematics). But the UK does receive more research funding per capita than most EU states. This reflects the status of UK universities. However the EU funds research outside the EU so this funding could continue and the government has pledged to make up any shortfall.

Many more claims were made but most were without foundation or based on wrong reading of the available statistics.

As an exiter I have the following comments:

The claim most frequently quoted as a lie by remainers is No 1. This was so widely discussed before the vote that no one could have been unaware of the truth.

The most pernicious lie was No 4 and should make sure that George Osborne is never again seen as a serious politician.

 





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11 Dec 2016 10:31 PM by bobaol Star rating. 2253 posts Send private message

bobaol´s avatar

Still can't resist inflating figures then, tteed. You were arguing the 350 million a week right up until almost the bitter end. Even 250 million a week only takes into account the rebate and not the amount that is invested back in UK which actually brings down the amount to 163 million a week and I can give dozens of links to that figure. Even the ever-so-Brexit Daily Telegraph agreed with that. And virtually all social media still brings up the 350 million a week except for one rather idiotic one which states it was 350 million a day. And the bus said "let's spend it on the NHS instead". If that doesn't sound like they would spend it on the NHS then you really have got the wrong glasses on or you're really a lawyer. 

The pound started dropping after December 2015 when the possiblity of an out vote reared its head. Every time the polls put Brexit in the lead, down it went. When the polls said remain, up it went. November 2015 was 1.42 to the euro. If you can't see leaving has caused the pound to crash then you're back to having those funny glasses on.

Same with the "The Turks are coming" claims. Mirrored by windtalker's claim that 90% of immigrants to UK are from the EU. 

But don't you think it's time to stop re-fighting the referendum? It's over, the vote is out. Repeating lies from both sides is no longer justified. It's all a bit boring now and, like in the past, pure guesswork and wishful thinking.

Full Fact: In 2015 the UK government paid £13 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about £8.5 billion.

BBC: The net cost to the UK, as referred to by John Caudwell, is £8 billion a year or £161 million a week. 

Daily Telegraph: How does it all add up? Taking account of the money that comes back and the aid spending, Britain last year gave almost £6.5 billion to the EU that would otherwise not have been paid out if we were not members of the club. That’s almost £18 million a day or £126 million a week..

My Note: the Telegraph figure includes 1 billion spent on foreign aid which the UK counts as part of its commitment to aid which they say would have been spent anyway.

Enough is enough. We haven't even started negotiations yet let alone left the EU. Come back in two years time (or so) and we'll see what has or has not happened.

 

 

 





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11 Dec 2016 11:04 PM by tteedd Star rating in Hertfordshire & Punt.... 990 posts Send private message

You were arguing the 350 million a week right up until almost the bitter end.

"let's spend it on the NHS instead".

 

You will find if you look back that I reported on where the figures come from. Not arguing right up to the bitter end as you say. I actually made the argument, before the vote, repeated in the post.

I also posted a picture of the bus so both sides could see what it actually said.

The GBP did not fluctuate wildly as you state there was a steady decline between November and May which had been a forecast result of quantative easing. The wild swings were after the vote. I agree it climbed before the vote on an expected remain vote but this just reflects the views of the people trading not the inherent strength of the economy.

I was not re-fighting the referendum. I have no need, I am not a remoaner. I was making a definitive response to a frequently made erronous comment by another poster.





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12 Dec 2016 12:11 AM by Tadd1966 Star rating in Los Montesinos. 1754 posts Send private message

Tteed

All your points could easily challenged but for most time will show  once the negotiations start and we shall see who was right over the next couple of years

The future us not bright unless BIG compromises are made by the UK the EU does not need to it and all the member states will survive and prosper together to the exclusion of the UK 

The UK is simply not that important to anyone or great and sadly the dismantling of the 4 state union will start soon

 



_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”



Like 0      
12 Dec 2016 1:00 AM by hugh_man Star rating in Kent/Roda . 1593 posts Send private message

hugh_man´s avatar

Tadd

Are you sure you've looked at the unemployment figures, the debt to GDP and the economic growth figures for the PIGS?

They are more constrained by the Euro and the EU and the U.K. will be after leaving the EU.

A slightly weaker sterling has already improved our October exports to non EU countries and there is absolutely no reason why that should not continue during after Brexit negotiations.

If the EU are really not prepared to negotiate, then Brexit really will mean Brexit but the sun will still rise in the East.

WTO is a world single market with relatively low tariffs IF any are applied.

We have seen more concrete announces of investment in the UK in the last few months than concrete decisions to pull out.

Most of the business world knows the EU us a busted flush and are not about to make decisions that involve more uncertainty than the UK.

Only the powers in Brussels cannot see it.

 


This message was last edited by hugh_man on 12/12/2016.



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12 Dec 2016 9:31 AM by Tadd1966 Star rating in Los Montesinos. 1754 posts Send private message

Hugh_man

Time will tell

WTO rules already have tariffs so why would they change just for the UK - no IF about it

 



_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”



Like 0      
12 Dec 2016 10:32 AM by hugh_man Star rating in Kent/Roda . 1593 posts Send private message

hugh_man´s avatar

Tadd

i would prescribe a course of strong anti depressants.

I note you have quoted the only IF in my post and not commented on any of the positives.

PS WTO tariffs are not necessarily charged, they are maximums,  if trading nations agree deals.

German manufacturers are not going to charge tariffs on Mercs, BMWs and Audis if they think it will affect their business.





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12 Dec 2016 11:07 AM by Mickyfinn Star rating in Spain and France. 1833 posts Send private message

A few facts on the EU single market.

When Britain joined the then EEC, it had 257 million consumers. Now it has 510 million. In 2014, its GDP was $18.5 trillion That’s a little bigger than America, whose large internal market is one of the sources of its economic success. Its GDP was $17.5 trillion.

In Britain exports to the single market help support 4.2 million jobs, 3.1 million directly and 1.1 million indirectly.

Unless Britain agrees to the four freedoms of the EU it will not have access to the single or internal market. That has been made absolutely clear by every EU leader and is non-negotiable. The prediction then is no UK access to the single market in future

Britain’s only option after Brexit is trade under WTO  most favoured nation rules. Essentially it means trade with the world’s nations with agreed levels of tariffs. That is incredibly complex. Everything will need to be negotiated and agreed beforehand and the papers work it will generate for British and European companies is immense. The binding committments each good and service must impose under WTO rules makes EU bureaucracy pale into insignificance.

The logic for EU companies in the future is probably trade with Britain if you have to but it may well be easier or more profitable to avoid the UK and remain trading inside the single market. The only advantage Britain can have left with the rest of the EU is the exchange rate differential. That may offer an incentive for the UK to retain its former market share.

The predictable logical conclusion then of Brexit is a required and permanently lower exchange rate with Europe and the rest of the world. That may work in a low interest environment but once the pressure to raise rates begins due to higher inflation what then?

Equally imposed tariff barriers may also reduce the exchange rate advantage for Britain. In truth the uncertainties that will surround the British economy, beginning after article 50 is triggered will I believe be considerable.

Late into 2017 we should have some prospect on what damage Brexit has done to the country. So far little evidence of that has appeared and why should it? Britain still enjoys all it’s EU advantages.

 



_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn Time is the fire in which we burn. Delmore Schwartz.



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12 Dec 2016 11:14 AM by tenerife Star rating. 130 posts Send private message

I prefer Patrick Minford's take on events rather than the pessimistic views of some on here.

 


This message was last edited by tenerife on 12/12/2016.



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12 Dec 2016 12:07 PM by Mickyfinn Star rating in Spain and France. 1833 posts Send private message

Not just I who is pessimistic tenerife read this link. Place your faith in Minford if you want your own oinions reinforced.. He is a maverick economist out on a limb from main stream thinking.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britain-wto-schedule-argentina-spain-brexit-latest-a7468766.html



_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn Time is the fire in which we burn. Delmore Schwartz.



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12 Dec 2016 12:43 PM by tenerife Star rating. 130 posts Send private message

Was he not a member of the MPC?





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12 Dec 2016 1:52 PM by Tadd1966 Star rating in Los Montesinos. 1754 posts Send private message

hugh_man

i would prescribe a course of strong anti depressants. - GROW UP

I note you have quoted the only IF in my post and not commented on any of the positives.

IMO there was NO positives to quote

PS WTO tariffs are not necessarily charged, they are maximums,  if trading nations agree deals.

Of course they are charged and businesses use Incoterms to define the repsonisbility of the fees / tariffs / duities (inclduing VAT). Importing and exporting to and from many countires under WTO still have duties / tariffs and taxes under the free trade agreement.

Yes free trade agreements exist under WTO but this does not  provide for tariff / duty or VAT exemptions. You may be getting confused with freedom to trade vs the costs (tariffs, duty VAT etc.)  involved

German manufacturers are not going to charge tariffs on Mercs, BMWs and Audis if they think it will affect their business.

They will probably simply pass on the import tariff / duty / VAT cost to the business /  UK consumer under Incoterms (e.g DDP) simple really.



_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”



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12 Dec 2016 4:56 PM by Mickyfinn Star rating in Spain and France. 1833 posts Send private message

The one obvious conclusion to WTO tariffs is higher consumer costs. Business can only absorb these costs so far. Leavers may well rue the day they supported Brexit when everything in Britain imports costs substantially more. Add inflation to that mix because of the lower exchange rate and you would not be wrong if you predict life in Britain for everyone will soon become a whole lot more difficult. The JAM's may be tipped over the edge.

One of the advantages of EU membership was consumer price stability. For example Briton’s have enjoyed cheap air fares to Europe and the USA because of the European open sky agreement.

Much will depend on how, and to what extent, a post-EU Britain chooses to replicate its existing access to the EU single market in aviation (and in other sectors). Suffice it to say - the situation is very uncertain. 

I can recall life before the agreement. I was then a regular flyer and it used to cost a small fortune to fly anywhere within Europe. Any airline that tried to undercut fares such as Laker and others were forced into bankruptcy by state run airlines seeking to keep their market share. Another clue that Brexit is a route back to the seventies.



_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn Time is the fire in which we burn. Delmore Schwartz.



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12 Dec 2016 10:07 PM by tteedd Star rating in Hertfordshire & Punt.... 990 posts Send private message

Merry Christmas, Happy New Year and prosperous future to all.

Ttedd





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12 Dec 2016 10:13 PM by ads Star rating. 4134 posts Send private message

Thank you Ttedd... :) 

Thought for the New Year....

“Optimism is the most important human trait, because it allows us to evolve our ideas, to improve our situation, and to hope for a better tomorrow.” 


This message was last edited by ads on 12/12/2016.



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13 Dec 2016 8:15 AM by Mickyfinn Star rating in Spain and France. 1833 posts Send private message

“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” 



_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn Time is the fire in which we burn. Delmore Schwartz.



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13 Dec 2016 9:38 AM by ads Star rating. 4134 posts Send private message

An optimist sees the difficulties and constantly strives for reform to overcome the difficulties rather than bemoan against the difficulties and focus on the negatives.

It's all about finding solutions but with positive, workable and flexible alternatives. Flexibility and willingness to perceive the realities from both sides is essential in this scenario....intransigence and alienation sadly has the tendency to  reinforce pessimism, so it becomes even more incumbent upon the optimists to believe that solutions can be achieved which requires a far more open minded perspective.

 


This message was last edited by ads on 13/12/2016.



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