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The so called 'experts' got it wrong on our exit from the ERM: no crash, instead we did quite well. Neither did they forecast the crash of 2008. Cameron has gone from us prospering outside the EU before his 'negotiations' to all out disaster, and we're expected to believe what he says!
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ads,
I would treat any promise as I would the 'the cheque is in the post', I would also expect any 'offer' to be so veiled in EU gobbledygook, that most of us wouldn't have a clue as to it's sincerity. However if Boris and Nigel declared it to be a good deal I would be minded to believe them, but then again, has anyone seen any flying pigs of late? 
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I'm Spartacus, well why not?
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If ever there was another miscalculation on the part of the Govt, this is it, when they quietly scrapped a migrant fund intended to ease the pressure from the effects on housing schools and hospitals. This was back in August 2010 :
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/aug/06/fund-impact-immigration-scrapped
How can we have faith in their judgements when they so miscalculated the strategy ( or lack of) to not only recognise the realities but failed to take workable evasive action sufficiently early? Plus its proved to be false economy and has led to an escalation of vulnerabilities.
It beggars belief.
If the govt and all their economic advisers ( that ironically are now being called upon to forewarn the voters) are so knowledgeable then why have they not identified an effective strategy ( even if this was not deemed sufficiently effective)...might it be that they had their hands tied by EU treaty arrangements that would have penalised them in that process?
This message was last edited by ads on 02/06/2016.
This message was last edited by ads on 02/06/2016.
This message was last edited by ads on 02/06/2016.
This message was last edited by ads on 02/06/2016.
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As for "veiled EU gogggledegook" it's important to remain aware that this could lead to the potential for purposeful complexities to hide a multitude of sins. Awareness is all is it not, and if in doubt question the complexity, and never be too embarrassed to ask for further clarification and further explanation. It's called transparency and something we should all be demanding from our politicians, financial institutions, large corporations.
To be fair cross party select committees have done a pretty good job ...trouble is Jo Public rarely gets to see it or partake in the provision of evidence!!
I saw a select committee questioning the utility companies and environment Ministers recently with regard to flooding in the Lake District and the one person who appeared incredibly knowledgeable was the local ( lady) representative who not only gave evidence but was also remarkably astute in proferring solutions.
This is why it appears essential to seek firsthand experience from a variety of sources close to the realities and not be blinkered by political dogma in that process.
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One man’s ’crock of crap’ is another’s ‘pot of rose fertiliser’
Might have been Micky’s response to that somewhat blunt criticism.
But seriously, Micky’s devotion to everything EU blinds him so much that he takes all anti Brexit rhetoric as the gospel truth. Even so, in some ways I find it to be a ‘pot of rose fertiliser’.
I have for many years (I originally said always but that would have been untrue) looked at statements by people and assessed them for veracity and self interest. If the person or organisation has an interest in saying what they do then I tend to disregard what they say. Likewise if they have a track record of being wrong they will have to have a cast iron argument before I listen to what they say. Micky’s chosen oracles are without exception funded by the EU, under the control of EU favouring organisations or made up of people who belong to that clique that are likely to gain from highly paid and often tax free jobs in international organisations. If you want a clear picture you have to treat all such reports with scepticism.
People with no axe to grind who have a long history of research and have a habit of getting it right are the ones to listen to.
I gave an example of one such. Micky dismissed him as being a Brexit mouthpiece. (Whatever that might be – it is surely an example of the product of a closed mind). The person named has a long and distinguished record in economic research and in addition to an enviable reputation for getting forecasts right.
I shall continue to look forwards to Micky’s Pots of Rose Fertiliser and let them energise the garden of my mind into investigation. But when I find that the reports have been made up in a fortnight, are the product of EU funded bodies, are controlled by pro EU organisations or the products of those that stand to gain from the minor universe of taxpayer funded international positions (including the commission). I will let the seedlings wither.
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Thanks Ttedd for the pointer to more research (Patrick Minford).
I noticed this in one of his papers,
"Some people fear a different reaction: where either the EU as a whole or individual EU member states erecting discriminatory barriers against UK exports, whether special tariffs or other arrangements such as onerous customs requirements – all in retaliation against what they see as the UK’s unreasonable departure
or renegotiation. But such fears can be dismissed, for three main reasons.
First of all, the changes the UK would ask for would not end a high degree of mutual cooperation in a variety of economic and political areas; any such retaliation would put such other areas of cooperation at risk and be against EU and individual EU members’ interests.
Second, the EU exports far more food and manufactured products to the UK than the UK does to the EU; the UK is a net importer of both and a war of trade retaliation would be damaging to the EU.
Third, once the UK had opted for free trade in food and manufactures, such barriers would not affect the prices we paid for our imports or obtained for our exports, they would merely lead to a diversion of trade away from the EU.
(The same applies to services where in any case the UK faces high barriers.) The only cost in this case would be temporary disruption as trade patterns were changed. But last and most important, such actions would be illegal under WTO trade law, and since the EU is a signatory to the WTO by implication under EU law. It is absurd to imagine that the EU, which relies so heavily on WTO
law for large numbers of trade disputes, would put itself at risk by ignoring WTO law in its dealings with the UK, a state involved with it in friendly cooperation across so many areas, including the development of the single market in services.
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Despite all the comments and research i have seen nothing from any of the exiters to convince me that an exit is a good idea
So can any exiter produce an official statement that will definitely show what will happen post exit that is confirmed true and recorded for the following
trade
travel
taxes
Immigration
Benefits
Joining eea or not
All agreements with eu countries
Employment for uk citizens in eu member states
Employment in uk for non UK citizens
What will happen to current non uk citizens living and working and or receiving benefits
Specific answers only please with an endorsement from the govt or some other form of evidence etc no guesses or forecasts please
This message was last edited by Tadd1966 on 03/06/2016.
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Tad1966
Unbeliveable that you should be asking for 'official statements' or an 'endorsement from the government'.
Everyone has to 'get real' about this:
No-one can provide a definitive true statement (official or otherwise), and as for government endorsements, please get into the real world with everyone else.
This situation has never happened before (certainly not on this scale) and NO-ONE can provide conclusive proof one way or the other, in the end people will have to go with their 'gut feel'.
It may depend on whether you put more importance on a short term economy blip which will PROBABLY happen due to the immediate uncertainty, after a period of uncertainty things will PROBABLY get back to normal.
Others may put more importance on whether or not we need to seriously tackle immigration, by pulling out of the EU we (if managed properly) can begin to start with a 'clean sheet of paper' and put rules in place that limits any immigration to what is right for the country rather than what is deemed right for individuals. Immigration being brought under control now will be our legacy for generations to come.
We need to take in people that suit our needs, if we have jobs for skills that are not 'homegrown' we can bring them in as required, although we should first be looking at 'why we cannot provide sufficient training to provide the needed skills'.
IF we leave the EU some things are IMHO almost cast iron:
We will not be dragged into world war III because we wanted to take charge of our own affairs.
We will not lose £4300 from our household income, although alternative reports this week bring this down to half that amount, even this will not happen.
IF pay packets dipped a little (although their is no proof this will happen) it is better than losing jobs, for every immigrant taking up a job here, one local person will have to be out of work and claim benefits.
UK citizens working abroad would still be able to do so, legal immigrants already working here would still be able to work here.
I cannot give you a 'government endorsement' for the above but I will be willing to bet that I will be much nearer the mark than they are.
Remember today's government is tomorrow's opposition and today's opposition is tomorrow's government, would you still be willing to set out your store to a 'government endorsement' then?
This message was last edited by BigAl2015 on 03/06/2016.
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Whilst there is no guarantee what will happen if UK leave, there is also no guarantee what will happen if they stay. Not Status Que for sure.
Originally UK voted to be a trading partner only. Without any consent by it's inhabitants, UK now is controlled to a large extent by the EU, ECJ, etc. I dread to think what powers may be introduced in the future.
PS I have no vote.
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I don't think their are any guarantees about anything in life except death and taxes as some wag once remarked.
Brexit vote however will bring a guaranteed drop in Sterling against base currencies around the world. -20% is the concensus amount among ForX traders. That will stoke UK inflation and rate rises.
As David Cameron remarked on TV last night "you cannot control immigration by trashing the economy".
In fact Brexit will make not the slightest difference to immigration because the UK will have to sign up to EFTA status to remain part of the single market. That involves the same membership conditions the country has at the moment.
If the UK does not join EFTA the country will have to negotiate new trade agreements around the world that could take decades.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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As I said Micky, it's all about what your priorites are:
DC mentions "you cannot control immigration by trashing the economy". because he knows self-preservation and greed will strike a cord with those who look for short term gain and also for 'what's in it for me', he is well aware how shallow people can be.
There are those who look upon this as a responsibilty to protect their country and services for future generations and are able to relinquish short trem gains for lomg term security, prosperity and job security.
If signing up to EFTA comes with strings attached regarding free movement of people, this is not in the long term interests of the UK, unfortunately some are blinded by POSSIBLE short term blip in our economy. We should walk away from any such deal and walk proud knowing we are looking after the generations to come, rather than ourselves.
We must realise that when the bus is full there is no more room for passengers, if we take on more passengers than we can carry then the wheels will evntually come off.
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Mickyfinn. All of what u just wrote is total speculation. UK won't "Have to, "agree to" or "sign up to" anything. I was exporting all over the world my whole life. And when I lived in the States I drove a Jaguar. Didn't buy it on the black market!
No EU agreements were in place with most of those markets. I think the lost sale of 3 Range Rovers to German Border Forces set against the thousands of BMWs bought by UK authorities will be obvious to even Frau Merkel who is having fearful nightmares about the UK leaving.
As for you saying, "Brexit vote however will bring a guaranteed drop in Sterling" I have a million pounds here for you if you really have the only genuine working Crystal Ball in the world. Most FX people I have spoken to say they see an initial drop in the value of sterling which will help exporters but then Sterling will be seen as THE safe haven fiat currency.
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Unbeliveable that you should be asking for 'official statements' or an 'endorsement from the government'.
Why?
The exiters dont even have any sort of published manifetso they are winging it and guessing pretty much like us on here. No guarantees , no safety net, no risk analysis, no budget, no agreements within teh UK govt, poltciians an't even agree anything - basically NO IDEA
worst fo all the UK populus will have NO SAY or VOTE on ANY of the plans / options when they become available
Immigration is being addressed by the EU and the UK is a part of that. The exiters have said nothing of how they wil handle immigartion or if they will or will not work with the EU
As for workers - another unknown and nobody can say without any certainty
Freedom of mvoment within teh EU for UK citiznes wil surley vanish whhetehr visas will be intorduced - another unknown
As for trade we know if we exit the UK will still have to obey EU regulations if they wish to export to the EU so no chnegrteally and will the UK have to pay import/exprt duites - another unknown which will be decided by the EU member states NOT the UK
VAT paymet / exemptions - will they still apply? Another unkown
If we stay we know what we are going to get whether it is more of the same or working towards greater EU integration or both - whatever it is the UK will have a SAY
An exit is simply too many unkowns and I see no positives whatsoever
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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The exiters dont even have any sort of published manifesto
(my understanding of manifesto is - a public declaration of intentions, opinions, objectives, or motives, as one issued by a government, sovereign, or organization)
The existers are not a political party but a group of individuals. If UK voted out then the government in UK, initially the conservatives, would have to come up with a manifesto explaining what their policies were.
This message was last edited by johnzx on 03/06/2016.
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I have a million pounds here for you if you really have the only genuine working Crystal Ball in the world.
Not crystal ball only expereince trading in money markets over the last thirty years.
Well if you need another currency I would change it now or last week would have been better before the negative polls.
It will take years of depressed Sterling to make any difference.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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People who want to Exit the EU come from all political parties and walks of life.
What they want in common is the return of democracy to the UK population.
It is totally unfair to expect a detailed manifesto from them as they have no central organisation.
What we will get on exit is a government that has to take account of the wishes of the electorate and the well being of the people of the UK. The direction and choices made by that government will be judged by the people every 5 years or less.
What you will regain then is:
Freedom
Democracy
Control of our own borders (including maritime ones).
Ability to negociate (if necessary - the much vaunted long negociations will turn out to be a mirage if we leave) our own trade deals.
Supremacy of UK law (or at least democratic control of what we concede to international law)
What you will also get is:
Economic prosperity (yes I do believe that - I, and you should be, totally unipressed by the 'in' doomsayers).
The ability of the UK to make decisions in favour of UK industries. (Abiding by EU rules while others ignor them has cost us an unquantifiable amount - this is true of governments as well as individuals, at present Germany supports it's steel industry while we believe we are unable to do so)
Protection from NATO as you have had since the end of WW2.
Freedom from payment to the EU.
An unmatchable manifesto
This message was last edited by tteedd on 03/06/2016.
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Johnzx
Political party or not makes no difference the exiters should have some form of plan or strategy to justify an vote
Handing over to a govt to which has a majority of mps who want to stay in makes even less sense
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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What a lovely Alsatian you have Manx Money I love that breed hes big isnt he
Whats his name
Hugh
Ps your last post made a lot of sense
Mickyfinn has made an absolute fool of himself wasting all that energy on his One man campaign
This message was last edited by hughjardon on 03/06/2016.
This message was last edited by hughjardon on 03/06/2016.
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Done the Spain thing Happier in the UK
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Crikey you sound scared witless. Calm down. "Freedom of movement will disappear for UK citizens!" Why? My partner's from Borneo and has freedom of movement with no visa requirements..just a passport. And, "will the UK have to pay import/exprt duites - another unknown which will be decided by the EU member states NOT the UK". NO! Any agreements will be negotiated by both parties. But it's already stated that the existing trade agreements will stay in place for at least two years. Time to agree to a simple free trade agreement if Germany want to keep selling us machine tools and BMW's.
will the UK have to pay import/exprt duites - another unknown which will be decided by the EU member states NOT the UK
"VAT paymet / exemptions - will they still apply? Another unkown". I've been exporting for 40 years..what vat exemptions are you referring to? Do you mean that when exporting to a non EU country we don't charge vat? Why would that change?
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It would be great to get rid off all the immigrants,dirty bankers and make the UK safe again no more European court of Appeal wasting tax payers money send people to prison properly even reintroduce Hanging now theres a thought
Love Hugh xx
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Done the Spain thing Happier in the UK
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