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Not my hero ... another false assumption I'm afraid. :(
Isn't it important to retain an open mind to differing analyses, review, critique, decipher ( if possible) and draw your own conclusions from as wide a perspective as possible?. It sadly seems as though there are all too many with preconceptions unwilling to remove the blinkers and be willing to listen to reasoned arguments from both camps.
Each to their own I suppose.....
This message was last edited by ads on 11/06/2016.
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Ads,
The economic facts have been played out. Everyone agrees. Brexit will be bad for the economy at the very least in the near term (next two years) and possibly for a decade; the only question is how bad as in bad, very bad or catastophic. After ten years the jury is out. Those that disagree with the universal view are akin to climate change doubters. By all means keep an open mind, but don't be conned by people in the pay of Boris Johnson.
Dr Gerard Lyons the co-chair of the Economists for Brexit is Chief Economic Adviser to Boris Johnson and has been since 2013.
It is like having the oil companies hiring scientists to say there is no evidence for CO2 being a climate change gas.
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The economic facts have been played out. Everyone agrees. Brexit will be bad for the economy
To quote an American General 'Nuts'.
You only have to read this thread to know that your statement that everyone agrees is totally wrong.
Brexit will almost certainly be good for our economy. We will be freed form the slow economic performance of the EU, we will be freed from the regulations that hamper business and manufacturing. We will be free to negociate tarriff free trade with the rest of the world. The only possible way it could in any way be bad for us is if the EU bit of their nose to spite thier faces but this unlikely in the extreem in normal circumstances but especially now when both France and Germany have elections coming up in 2017. We can expect tarriff free trade with the EU for at least the next two years and after that any sanctions will be worse for France and Germany than for us.
Now tell us why it will be economically bad for us?
Perhaps the in campaign shot their ammunition too soon? but DC had to use our money to tell us what to vote early because he knew he could not do it in the final three week.
So tell us why?
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CVS OF AUTHORS
is Chairman of Capital Economics, Europe’s largest macroeconomics consultancy, which he founded in 1999. Roger was educated at Merton and Nuffield Colleges Oxford and subsequently taught Economics at St Anne’s College Oxford. He is a Specialist Adviser to the House of Commons Treasury Committee and an Honorary Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries. He was formerly Group Chief Economist of HSBC. In 2012 Roger and a group of economists from Capital Economics won the Wolfson Prize. Roger is the author of several books including The Trouble with Europe (2014, 2015 and 2016) and The Death of Inflation, published in 1996. He is a well-known broadcaster on radio and television and writes a regular weekly column for the Daily Telegraph. In 2012 he was named Economics Commentator of the Year.
is Head of Public Policy at the Institute of Economic Affairs and a weekly columnist for City AM. He has previously worked at both the Centre for Policy Studies and Frontier Economics, and has written widely on a range of economic issues. He has both MA (Cantab) and Mphil qualifications in economics from the University of Cambridge.
is an economist and businessman, who is well-known as a strong advocate of sound money and free markets in the UK’s public policy debates. He was a member of the Treasury Panel of Independent Forecasters (the so-called “wise men”) between 1992 and 1997, which advised the Chancellor of the Exchequer on economic policy. He was awarded the CBE for services to economic debate in 1997. Tim founded Lombard Street Research, one of the City of London’s leading economic research consultancies, in 1989. He has been a visiting professor at the Cardiff Business School and Cass Business School). His main current interest is establishing the Institute of International Monetary Research, at the University of Buckingham. The Institute’s purpose is to analyze linkages between the banking system and the quantity of money on the one hand, and macroeconomic outcomes on the other. Tim’s latest book is Money in a Free Society (New York: Encounter Books, 2011).
is an economist with interests in monetary economics, public finance and labour markets. He is the former economics editor of The European and his articles on economics and public policy have appeared in publications that range from The Financial Times and Wall Street Journal to The Spectator and Times Literary Supplement. He is the author of Sorry We Have No Money: Britain’s Economic Problem; Margaret Thatcher: the economics of creative destruction; Unfinished business: the case for a more liberal labour market and America’s Exceptional Economic Problem that will be published shortly. He was Special Adviser to the Secretary of State for Employment 1987-89 and Special Adviser to the Chancellor of the Exchequer 1989-92
Dr Gerard Lyons
has been Chief Economic Advisor to Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London, since January 2013. He is on the Board of CityUK and on the Advisory Board of Open Europe. Before that he spent 27 years in the City at Chase Manhattan, Swiss Bank, DKB and Standard Chartered. He has testified to Committees of the US Congress and Senate and to UK Parliamentary Committees, and he has spoken at the EU-China Summit in Beijing. His publications include The Europe Report: a Win-Win Situation (2014), London: The Global Powerhouse (2016) and The Consolations of Economics, which was a Daily Telegraph Book of the Year and released in paperback by Faber & Faber ( 2015). His ebook, The UK Referendum: An Easy Guide to Leaving the EU is available for download from Amazon.
Neil MacKinnon
is the global macro strategist at VTB Capital and has worked as an economist and strategic adviser at a number of financial institutions in the City over the last 20 years or so including Nomura Securities, Chase Investment Bank, Yamaichi International, and Citibank. He started his career as an economist at HM Treasury and is a graduate of the Universities of Liverpool and Southampton.
Professor Kent Matthews
is the Sir Julian Hodge Professor of Banking and Finance at Cardiff University. He was previously Professor of Banking and Finance at Liverpool John Moores University. He took degrees at the London School of Economics, Birkbeck, and Liverpool University. He has held research and academic positions at the LSE, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, University of Liverpool, Western University (Canada), Bank of England and Lombard Street Research. He has held visiting positions at Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (Belgium), Humbolt University (Berlin), Clemson University (S. Carolina), Fudan University (Shanghai) and Hong Kong Monetary Authority. His research has been in the area of macroeconomic modelling, forecasting, the shadow economy, and the efficiency and competitiveness of banking markets. He is the author of 6 books, and 75 papers published in peer reviewed journals, and book chapters.
Professor Patrick Minford
is Professor of Applied Economics at Cardiff University where he directs the Julian Hodge Institute of Applied Macroeconomics. His main research interest is in macroeconomic modelling and forecasting. Between 1967 and 1976 he held a variety of economic positions, including spells in East Africa, industry, HM Treasury and its delegation in Washington DC. From 1976 to 1997, he was the Edward Gonner Professor of Applied Economics at Liverpool University where he founded and directed the Liverpool Research Group in Macroeconomics, which built the ‘Liverpool Model’ of the UK economy that was influential in forecasting and policy analysis during the 1980s. During the 1990s he also undertook part-time roles in the UK administration: he was a Member of the Monopolies and Mergers Commission from 1990 to 1996, and one of the HM Treasury’s Panel of Forecasters (‘Wise Men/Persons’) from 1993 to 1996. He was made a CBE in 1996. His published work includes books, journal articles, and op-ed pieces in the area of macroeconomics and related policy issues.
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Patrick Minford
In the early 80s a large number of 'economic experts' wrote a round robin to the Times saying the the Thatcher government's policies would destroy the UK economy.
Patrick Minford responded outlining why they were wrong. Patrick Minford's analysis proved correct.
Patric Minford against most other 'experts' told us the the ERM would end in tears. He was right (and George Soros took us for millions).
Patrick Minford has also been correct about the problems that slow economies would have with the Euro.
Patrick Minford says that his analysis shows that we would be economically better off out of the EU. We have round Robins again in the Times!
Who do I trust?
This message was last edited by tteedd on 11/06/2016.
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And
Just the facts ma’am
First, they are not facts but opinions.
Second, the very first one is from an 'in' leaflet and taken totally our of context. You can read Martin's frustration with this on Money saving Expert where he states he supports neither side.
Many of the rest are similar, or from people who if they said 'the sky is blue' you would go outside to check.
Just printing ad hoc propaganda proves nothing.
Give us your genuine argument based on fact.
This message was last edited by tteedd on 11/06/2016.
This message was last edited by tteedd on 12/06/2016.
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@tteedd.
You post give us an argument based on fact after posting Brexit will almost certainly be good for our economy.
Irony, it's like goldy but worth less.
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Brexit Economics. Sequel to Legally Blond. Starring BoJo and the Three Stooges.
Give it a rest tteedd/ads. Are you the only people in the world who haven't figured out the fiction yet? Why are you so keen for people in the UK to be poorer? Do you dislike immigrants that much?
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When the UK does leave the EU which now seems highly likely the EU will unwind soon after so the loss of trade agreements will not be an issue all countries will be starting from zero eventually so we will be in poll position to take advantage of the circumstances It will of course take time to recover but nothing like the already bankrupt countries limping along on the shirt tails of Germany
Love Hugh xx
_______________________
Done the Spain thing Happier in the UK
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Sorry Hugh. Just to correct your spelling. By it meant to say highly unlikely...
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So, let's get this straight. One side comes up with an "expert" who says the UK will suffer economically. The other side then produces an "expert" who says the UK will improve economically. One side says "we can use the 350 million quid a week to spend on the NHS". The other side says "it's only 160 million quid a week which will keep the NHS going for 5 days". One side says "we can trade with the Commonwealth and do better", then the other side says "The Commonwealth countries want us to stay in and won't trade with us". One side says "we are more important to the EU than they are to us" and the other side says "less than 10% of EU imports come from the UK so they aren't that important but over 40% goes to the EU so UK needs them more". One side says "My businessman says we would be better off out" and the other side says "My businessman says we would be better off in".
It really is a load of BS from both sides, isn't it? So called experts from both sides who know absolutely nothing. Who really knows if healthcare provision will suffer? Who really knows if the pound will crash and burn? Who really knows if mortgages will go up or down? Who really knows if house prices will rise or fall?
None of you, that's who. It's turning into a peeing contest which is getting rather boring and I'm getting fed up of all the rubbish being spouted by both sides.
Just over two weeks to go and it's got nothing to do with winning or losing. It's about what is best for the UK, for those who have moved abroad or have stayed at home.
The only thing I do know is that I spoke to Hughjardon's neighbours the other day and they said how much the place has improved since he left 
(Yep, smiley on that one but I'm not bricking it or cutting and running.)
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Boabal, you need to make the rest of the quote where I give you the facts as to why I say it. Not just extract one phrase.
A genuine argument.
We get no such argument from the in side. They do not even give a reason as to why I am wrong.
Let alone try to justify what they themselves say.
Just saying the other side is rubbish shows you have lost the argument.
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Economically we know where we are at if we are in. It is what we have now. According to the quitters if we leave we will live in a land of milk and honey. So why doesn't every country outside the EU live in a land of milk and honey already?
I am happy to lead and work towards reform. I am not prepared to be a quitter and see the children of the U.K. Live in poverty for the rest of their lives to appease the racist views of frightened old age pensioners.
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Confirmed. Pension triple lock in danger if we Brexit.
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I agree with bobaol in that there are so many unknowns from both scenarios and to be dependent on economists who have produced such widely varying analyses leaves many confused and angry when they are the ones who are expected to "decipher" such complexities and/or place their trust in politicians who should be realistically planning and explaining their forward strategies in positive terms that reassure their voters based on sound factual evidence.
Instead we are getting negative campaigning from our existing Government which appears to be suggesting that as a country we no longer have the ability to trade in an open market, nor be in control of our own lives and laws, to be dependent on opt outs from a system that appears to be at odds with our own aspirations ( otherwise why would we need continual opt outs), that fails to explain exactly how they plan to address and realistically influence future reform of the EU, or in the interim address the impact from genuine firsthand concerns witnessed from free movement of people, or protect our rights from being overridden by those we do not directly democratically elect or make them adequately accountable.
The negativity and lack of self belief from this Govt in our own country and its citizens abilities is astounding and is alienating many who now question how this Govt can possibly move forward in either scenario.
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Exactly what is unknown if we keep the status quo?
This message was last edited by perrypower1 on 12/06/2016.
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The negativity and lack of self belief from this Govt in our own country and its citizens abilities is astounding
So is this why the UK are so dependant upon foreign workers in many professions including tehe NHS and why Boris said one of the reasons for exit we would be able to recruit Australian paramedics (wonder how the Australians feel about the UK "stealing" their trained staff!)
How many UK citizens are unemployed in the UK?
How many of these can afford the college / univerisity fees to train to fill these jobs?
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Negativity from the government - Rubbish - Leaving the EU is a negative and negative for Britain and the rest of Europe.
David Cameron this mornings Guardian:-
“We’ve got an incredibly strong case to say: look, if we stay in a reformed European Union, we’ve got a very bright future. A lot of businesses and investors will see Britain has decided its future in Europe and has got enormous opportunities around the world. I think we’ll see investment. We’ll see more jobs.
“All this is an exciting future and we need to get that across alongside the huge risks there are from leaving.”
Sounds pretty positive to me. Everything to gain by remaining, everything to lose by leaving. Britain has achieve a lot since the dark days of the recession in 2008. If the British vote to leave the EU those days will return to haunt I have absolutley no doubts.
This message was last edited by Mickyfinn on 12/06/2016.
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Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Is the suggestion that the Govt of the day will have no ability to control such factors and respond to shortfalls in the interim period? Surely this comes down to priorities and how any Govt responds to shortfalls.
But here we come back to the "unplanned " consequence of rapid population growth from free movement and migration and with it the increased pressures on our health system, our education system, our housing infrastructure, the pressures from unscrupulous companies suppressing rates of pay using migrant labour undermining working conditions etc. It's like a vicious circle of events and why so many want the ability to retain control.
Our posts crossed Mickeyfinn but perhaps some would question growth on this scale and query at what cost to our way of living, our environment etc when the people required to sustain this growth will only accentuate our current predicament.
This message was last edited by ads on 12/06/2016.
This message was last edited by ads on 12/06/2016.
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Surely this comes down to priorities and how any Govt responds to shortfalls.
Succesive UK govts have been getting this wrong for years and long before the EU, common market etc etc etc
This will get worse if we exit as succesive UK govt have a track record of only looking after their own and not the priorities of the citizens and this is why many in the Uk have become selfish, greedy, arrogant, I'm alright Jack etc. whilst many live on the breadline with all being brainwashed into thinking the that UK is great and something special
Any govt that cannot predict accuratley a high growth in the population and plan for it with investement in health, edcuation, housing, services etc is borderline incompetent and is at fault NOBODY else
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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