| The Comments |
Let Theresa May and Nigel Farage be your fantasy.
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Here's an alternative to consider, plus some background details re the OBR Committee..
Patrick Minford ( economist whose alternative model proved more realistic re short term scenario pre referendum, highlighting the Govt's model was too pessimistic), hit out again at the “outrageous” Brexit warnings being produced on the basis of Treasury estimates, which he suggested is stuffed full of officials who don’t want Britain to quit the EU.
Leaked draft papers back in October ( now made public) have revealed Cabinet ministers are being told tax revenues could plummet by £66billion a year if the UK opts for a ‘hard’ Brexit.
The documents, prepared for Cabinet committee discussions, warn Britain’s GDP could fall by as much as 9.5 per cent if the country leaves the EU without securing a trading agreement with the bloc.
The revelation Whitehall is continuing to pump out the same ‘Project Fear’ message officials produced before the EU referendum has sparked fury among Brexit campaigners.
The leaked forecasts are based on the same controversial Treasury study into the impact of Brexit its officials produced in April under ex-Chancellor George Osborne - the architect of the Remain camp’s ‘Project Fear’ scaremongering.
The April forecast included the same £66bn shortfall warning still reportedly being handed to ministers now.
Professor Minford said it was “outrageous” the Treasury had “learnt nothing from its mistakes” earlier in the year, as he pointed out how their April study had “already been shown to be complete nonsense”.
He pointed out how the Treasury’s growth forecasts included in their pre-referendum estimates had already been proved wrong, while they had also based their figures on “arbitrary uncertainty effects which had no basis”.
At the end of last month, GDP growth in the second quarter of 2016 - the period straddling the June 23 referendum - was was revised upwards, suggesting the economy has been largely unaffected by the Brexit vote.
Professor Minford criticised the Treasury’s “completely absurd assumption”, included in its April study, that Britain would continue with the same level of trade tariffs it places on non-EU countries once it leaves the bloc.
He said: “The Government policy now is to go towards free trade agreements with the whole world and a free trade agreement with the EU.
“So what are the Treasury doing assuming that we will have protectionism against both the EU and the rest of the world?”
The economist insisted “the whole point in leaving the EU is to get rid of this protection”.
Professor Minford suggested the Treasury could face action if they continue to base forecasts on their pre-referendum studies.
He said: “Now that they’ve been proved wrong by events, they should be revising these reports, not carrying on producing the same discredited message. It’s outrageous.
“If they continue with this, there’s going to have to be an inquiry into how the Treasury can persist in these outrageous pieces of analysis that have been discredited and are at variance with Government policy as well.”
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Budget Responsibility Committee
The OBR is led by the three members of the Budget Responsibility Committee (BRC). They have executive responsibility for the core functions of the OBR, including the judgements reached in its forecasts. They are:
Robert ChoteRobert Chote (Chairman)
Formerly Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, adviser to senior management at the International Monetary Fund, and economic journalist with the Independent and Financial Times newspapers.
Stephen NickellProf. Sir Stephen Nickell CBE FBA
Formerly professor of economics at Oxford University and the London School of Economics, Warden of Nuffield College, Oxford, and member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England (2000-06).
Graham ParkerGraham Parker CBE
Formerly head of the public sector finances team at HM Treasury and analyst and forecaster at the Inland Revenue. A technical adviser to the International Monetary Fund’s Fiscal Affairs Department since 2009
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This message was last edited by bobaol on 24/11/2016.
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I would tend to listen to Patrick Minford, he is one of the few that regularly get in the right ball park.
Meanwhile on this board we find the inherent bias of some of the remoaners. They seized on the OBR figures and treated them as fact rather than an estimate (investigation shows that they are based on worst case figures assuming negociation failure) but ignored (did not report) the positive side of the statement. It seems that the OBR forecast UK growth to be above that of the EU for each of the next five years.
I said that it seems as if they wish to revel in doing down the UK. I think I have a right to be more positive next time.
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Don't earthquake victims in Italy deserve special treatment and some flexibility to "permit" a Govt to be able to respond to extraordinary circumstances? Not according to this ( see below,)....
How can a member state Govt be instructed by EU officials to ignore citizens needs in this way and lose control of their ability to respond, to s crisis of this nature or have I misunderstood?
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Italy must obey’ Juncker threatens Italian PM as he scrambles to hold failing EU together
BRUSSELS bigwigs have warned Italy to respect pacts with the eurozone after the nation’s Prime Minister chose to support earthquake sufferers instead of balancing its books under EU regulations.
Matteo Renzi locked horns with chief Eurocrat Jean Claude Juncker after saying he will balance his budget in favour of earthquake hit regions and to support regions coping with an influx of new migrants “whether Brussels officials like it or not”.
Under the EU Stability and Growth pact nations must keep their budget deficits below three per cent, and support a national debt of less than 60 per cent of GDP.
But Italy is being kept under a tight leash after its debt soared to 142.31 per cent of GDP.
Mr Renzi said: "Juncker says I'm being quarrelsome.
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Juncker in row as journalist 'told to soften questions’ to EU boss
EU boss Jean-Claude Juncker has been caught up in a row over whether a journalist was told to soften questions he was asked during a high-profile YouTube interview last week.
Laetitia Birbes, a French videoblogger, has accused YouTube of attempting to “influence” her to ask only “very plain questions” of the top Brussels bureaucrat.
Mr Juncker, the president of the European Commission, faced a grilling from a trio of YouTube presenters in a live interview last Thursday.
But in a video on her YouTube channel, Ms Birbes - one of the interviewers - last night published secretly-filmed footage of an apparent YouTube employee warning her not to “get on the wrong side of YouTube and the European Commission” before the event.
Ms Birbes said she had then realised the Google-owned website were “expecting me to ask very plain questions and that their aim was to create an advertising opportunity for Juncker”.
She added: “I realised that YouTube was trying to influence me, nicely at first, then it went further than that and I felt threatened at some point.”
In the hour-long YouTube event with Mr Juncker, the EU official was asked about lobbyists and tax avoidance by Ms Birbes.
The videoblogger revealed she decided to take the “risk” of asking Mr Juncker tough questions because she “wanted to be true to myself”.
Ms Birbes said “something crazy” then happened the day after her interview with Mr Juncker.
She claims she was offered a one-year contract worth 25,000 euros (£21,500) to become a YouTube ambassador.
Ms Birbes asked whether she was offered the deal to “not talk about” the event with Mr Juncker or if the company had planned to offer her the contract anyway.
She said: “I can't sign it.”
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The claim: The Office for Budget Responsibility predicts that the government will have to borrow an extra £58.7bn as a result of the UK's vote to leave the European Union, a forecast that is too gloomy according to some commentators.
Reality Check verdict: All forecasts are uncertain. The OBR is predicting a considerable amount of extra government borrowing as a result of the vote to leave the European Union, but its overall forecast is more optimistic than the Bank of England and the average of independent forecasters."Investment growth is already being lower this year than it was last year."
In so far as our forecast is gloomy it's based on stuff that's already happened.
"The exchange rate has already fallen and that is the key to our forecast of weakness in the economy next year. "Investment growth is already being lower this year than it was last year."
So the OBR forecast is broadly based on what has happened so far continuing to happen, which is not unreasonable, and that is why the OBR finds a negative effect from the Brexit.
Much of the gloominess comes in the early years of the forecast, which are likely to be more reliable than later years. The OBR has a record of being too optimistic in its borrowing forecasts, especially in the later years of its forecasts.
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Minford has not written anything new in over a year. Pointless looking at his projections unless you want to read last years news tomorrow.
OBR forecast is based on negotiations resulting in Free Trade Tariff Free. Well that ain't going to happen so add another zero to that £60 billion number. We are facing permanent contraction. Eternal shrinkage. We won't hit £600 billion because no one is going to lend us the money. Move over Brazil there is a new debtor in town.
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If we all beleave and wish very hard Brexit will be a magical place. Barking mad. Maybe if you click your heals together with your ruby wellies on and say there is no place like home you will end up in Kansas...or win the lottery...or wake up from your fantasy.
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🍺 I'm trying to get perry a glass more than half full, as I think he is danger of slitting his wrists here.
Derrr even the IMF are still predicting UK growth this year as among the highest anywhere but obviously perry thinks we are worse than Brazil.
Each to his own, U.K. Economy, England Football team both past help.
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even the IMF are still predicting UK growth this year
Yes because nothing apart from uncertainty and weaker Sterling has actually happened. Once article 50 is triggered in March and the negotiating position on both sides becomes clearer, British companies can do some meaningful forward planning.
My best hope for the UK economy is a staged withdrawal over many years. The four EU principles kept in place during the transition and single market access continued.
Anything less or worse will manifest the OBR forecasts. Pragmatism must take precedence over blind allegiance to a skewed referendum result obtained by political manipulation and lies.
Political campaigns both in the UK and USA have now been complately discredited. The results should be treated with equal contempt by the people.
This message was last edited by Mickyfinn on 25/11/2016.
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Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Micky
you say:
Pragmatism must take precedence over blind allegiance to a skewed referendum result obtained by
Not to worry, the leavers saw through the remainers 'political manipulation and lies' and the correct result saw through in the end.
The quicker we 'Berxit' the sooner you and the other 'glass half empty brigade' can find something else to despair about.
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I’m not in despair as you allege. I am trying to find reasons to be positive about the UK going forward. I’m a committed European who enjoys life being a European citizen and residing in a wonderful country. The EU will go from strength to strength with or without Britain.
The problem with seeking positivity about Britain is the people in power with access to the books appear to have other rather more pessimistic opinions.
I will accept their views rather than a bunch of Brexiteers and hard right nationalist media commentators with axes to grind.
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Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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“I hear the argument that the 48% of people who voted to stay should have no say in what happens,”
“I find that very difficult to accept. The tyranny of the majority has never applied in a democracy and it should not apply in this particular democracy.”
Sir John Major. 23 November.
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Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Considering that Malta gets more back from the EU then it puts in, perhaps it's scared of when the UK leaves and our contribution slows down or stops might that be why it's running scared.
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I am trying to find reasons to be positive about the UK going forward.
Pull the other one. You highlight every negative you can.
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It appears that Sir John Major was a democrat when he won the vote but not when one goes against him!
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It appears that the Chancellors ability to borrow has improved after his annnouncement. Someone does not believe the OBR.
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1.176 Euros to the GBP. This means that the value of the Pound is well above the trend of decline established between November and March, Brexit or no Brexit.
Someone believes in the Pound despite Quantative easing
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I am trying to be positive about the UK going forward and have plenty of reasons to be so.
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The results should be treated with equal contempt by the people.
You had better go and live in Russia or Zimbabwe then.
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A few more changes to consider.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/25/erdogan-threatens-open-turkeys-borders-europe-protest-eu/
http://www.wsj.com/articles/european-parliament-president-martin-schulz-to-step-down-1479990522
Back in June the following article appeared.
http://openeurope.org.uk/daily-shakeup/merkels-union-want-european-parliament-president-martin-schulz-to-stand-down-when-term-ends/
Merkel’s party wants European Parliament President Martin Schulz to stand down as he makes people “angry” about EU
Members of Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU Union have called upon Martin Schulz, President of the European Parliament and a member of Germany’s centre-left SPD, to step down when his term ends at the end of 2016. According to Die Welt, Schulz has become ‘persona-non grata’ at the highest levels of Merkel’s party, partly due to his reaction to the UK’s referendum vote, after which he called for a “genuine EU government” that would be directly elected, and controlled by the European Parliament and a second legislative chamber representing the member states.
“The SPD stands for everything that makes people angry at Europe,” CSU General Secretary Peter Tauber told Die Welt. Gerda Hasselfeldt, the Chairman of the CSU Group in the Bundestag, added, “The SPD falls into the typical socialist pattern. Where problems arise, it must be resolved with other people’s money, and there must be more centralisation and more government.” Julia Klöckner, a Vice-President of the CDU, told Die Welt, “There is an agreement, which is to change when his term ends. And given that Mr Schulz is a man of honour, I assume he will stick to his own commitment.”
European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker rebuffed similar calls to step down over Brexit, telling MEPs in Strasbourg on Tuesday, “I refuse to let the Commission be blamed for the outcome of the referendum.” European Council Chief Donald Tusk urged national leaders to stop “often unfair” attacks on EU institutions. He added, however, that the EU cannot solve any serious problems “against the will of the member states.”
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte yesterday said that the EU must not continue with a “business as usual” approach, as to do so would be “the worst possible response,” after the British referendum. He urged against further political integration and a federal Europe, “because that too would be a denial of the sentiment felt by many Europeans to whom the EU is – or has become – something remote and aloof.”
Source: Die Welt Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung EUobserver The Irish Times
This message was last edited by ads on 25/11/2016.
This message was last edited by ads on 25/11/2016.
This message was last edited by ads on 25/11/2016.
This message was last edited by ads on 25/11/2016.
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