BREXIT

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22 Feb 2017 8:12 AM by Mickyfinn Star rating in Spain and France. 1833 posts Send private message

The House of Lords Reform Bill 2011 was a proposed Act of Parliament of the United Kingdom introduced to the House of Commons in June 2011 by Nick Clegg. Among other reforms, the bill would have made the United Kingdom's upper chamber mostly elected. It was abandoned by the government in August 2012 and formally withdrawn on 3 September 2012 following opposition from within the Conservative Party.

Every modern government has sought to reform the Lords but the resistance to it has always come from within the elected establishment not the Lords themselves. Britain’s system of government requires a second chamber to prevent the excess of elected officials. Currently I think the balance is about right. An elected second house would be unworkable.



_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn Time is the fire in which we burn. Delmore Schwartz.



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22 Feb 2017 8:20 AM by Mickyfinn Star rating in Spain and France. 1833 posts Send private message

Emmanuel Macron has warned British leaders that the UK can expect no concessions in Brexit negotiations if he is elected French president, vowing to take a rigid line on access to the EU’s single market and the powers of the European Court.

Macron, a frontrunner in France's increasingly fraught presidential race, stood on the steps of Downing Street and also vowed to lure bankers and talented professionals from Britain.

Mr Macron vowed to push for an unbreakable “Franco-German position” to defend the collective interests of the EU, presumably to prevent the UK trying to split off countries as talks drag on. He would ensure that British withdrawal from the union is fully compliant with the strict terms of EU treaty law.

Telegraph 23 February.

I believe Britain is in for a very big shock when they trigger article 50. No quarter or concessions will be given until the final hour. Even then I'm unsure it will happen. The most likely scenario is the EU will simply present a very large bill to the UK and wave the country goodbye. 

Brexiteers should expect nothing less. Divorce is always bitter and this one will be the mother of divorces.



_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn Time is the fire in which we burn. Delmore Schwartz.



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22 Feb 2017 9:32 AM by perrypower1 Star rating in Derbyshire/Fuerteven.... 647 posts Send private message

perrypower1´s avatar

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has warned the UK it faces a "very hefty" bill for Brexit.

He promised two years of "tough negotiation", when discussions on leaving terms get under way between the government and the European Union.

Exit will not come "at a discount or at zero cost", he said in a speech to the Belgian Federal Parliament.

Reports suggest the UK could have to pay the EU up to 60 billion euros (£51bn) after Brexit talks start.





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22 Feb 2017 9:39 AM by hughjardon Star rating in Jaywick Sands. 418 posts Send private message

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A cost worth PAYING according to the MAJORITY who voted DEMOCRATICALLY in the REFERENDUM

The UK will be able to RECOUP that money very QUICKLY when we regain control AGAIN 

BRING it ON 

Love Hugh ps thanks to the dozen members who asked for my SURVIVAL KIT hope you find it USEFUL

 


This message was last edited by hughjardon on 22/02/2017.

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22 Feb 2017 9:48 AM by Tadd1966 Star rating in Los Montesinos. 1754 posts Send private message

hughjardon

How did the majority know about the costs before the vote or now

It was unknown before the vote and is still unknown 

So how can they know it will be a cost worth paying

Mind you the voters have no say whatever the cost or deal the UK ends up with good or bad



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“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”



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22 Feb 2017 10:40 AM by Mickyfinn Star rating in Spain and France. 1833 posts Send private message

In addition to the costs the UK will have to pay the EU here is a list of the additional costs these economists expect the UK will have to pay for being happy to vote for being much poorer. 

 



_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn Time is the fire in which we burn. Delmore Schwartz.



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22 Feb 2017 10:58 AM by ads Star rating. 4135 posts Send private message

Interesting to hear that Mr Junker continues in his intransigent manner, speaking for those in the EU Parliament who appear to be seeking a less confrontational approach in order to achieve mutually acceptable outcomes.

Perhaps the question to ask is does Mr Junker and the current EU Commission have a different agenda to the EU Parliament who have recently identified their desire for reform?





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22 Feb 2017 11:09 AM by hugh_man Star rating in Kent/Roda . 1593 posts Send private message

hugh_man´s avatar

Mickey

 

Probably still a lot better that a failing EU whose currency will again be under pressure when Greece is due to make repayments in July.

Do these figures take into account the UK contribution to the EU, lower now since Mr Blair gave away part of our rebate, which the U.K. alone can decide how to spend rather than ever wasteful and useless grants and loans building airports and roads that are not needed, amongst other things.

 

Bring this debate back to UK contributions and let's get away from immigration which we have done to death.

I agree Ads, Juncker sounds like the school bully, not a principled politician.





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22 Feb 2017 11:12 AM by hugh_man Star rating in Kent/Roda . 1593 posts Send private message

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Hundreds of thousands of Romanians have staged massive protests on consecutive days, for the past two weeks, calling on the government to resign over corruption. The demonstrations have mobilised the younger generation and become Romania’s biggest protest movement since the the fall of Communism in 1989

The Guardian.





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22 Feb 2017 11:12 AM by hugh_man Star rating in Kent/Roda . 1593 posts Send private message

hugh_man´s avatar

Hundreds of thousands of Romanians have staged massive protests on consecutive days, for the past two weeks, calling on the government to resign over corruption. The demonstrations have mobilised the younger generation and become Romania’s biggest protest movement since the the fall of Communism in 1989

The Guardian.





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22 Feb 2017 12:08 PM by robertt8696 Star rating in Midlands, UK. 479 posts Send private message

what does a Romanian protest against their governments corruption have to do with the subject of Britains exit from the European Union?





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22 Feb 2017 1:11 PM by Jarvi Star rating in Halifax UK and Sucin.... 756 posts Send private message

Weeks after Sir Ivan Rogers warned there is likely to be hostility towards Britain in Brexit talks, the ex-Permanent Representative of the United Kingdom to the European Union met the Government’s Brexit committee.

Speaking to the Exiting the European Union Committee Sir Ivan said finance ministers across the bloc are racing to consider how they will raise cash after Britain leaves the EU.

He said: “As far as they’re concerned we’ve lobbed a grenade into the budget because they now have to start examining whether their funds go round for the period up until 2020 now, rather than waiting until 2019.

"They have all got a problem.

"Every finance minister in the 27 is doing a calculation of how far out of pocket they are going to be as a result of the British exit."





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22 Feb 2017 1:14 PM by Jarvi Star rating in Halifax UK and Sucin.... 756 posts Send private message

UK GDP grew by a bumper 0.7 per cent in the final three months of 2016 - up from a previous estimate of 0.6 per cent - according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

It comes on top 0.6 per cent growth between July and September, meaning the economy jumped by 1.3 per cent in the six months after the vote to leave the European Union (EU).

The stellar performance is yet more evidence that Britain did not succumb to doom-monger predictions made by Remain campaigners ahead of the referendum in June.

The upward revision to the final quarter of the year was thanks to a better performance within manufacturing industries than initially thought.

Exports in the three months jumped by a massive 4.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter, amid a weaker pound. 

Overall, the economy expanded by 1.8 per cent in 2016 - down from a previous estimate of 2 per cent, as a result of a downgraded performance in the first quarter of the year.

Britain's strong economic performance in the months after the referendum has prompted the likes of the Bank of England to revise up its forecast for growth in 2017.





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22 Feb 2017 1:16 PM by Jarvi Star rating in Halifax UK and Sucin.... 756 posts Send private message

According to the Office of National Statistics’ (ONS) latest figures, the UK has a huge trade surplus of almost £40billion with US, exporting far more in good and services than is imported.

Britain meanwhile, imports more from Europe than it exports, giving it a huge £61billion deficit with the bloc, figures have revealed.

MPs and economists have claimed it is beneficial for the EU to strike a deal with Britain which will allow easy trade - since companies in Europe make so much from selling to the island nation.

The latest figures from the ONS have revealed while exports of goods to EU have increased through most of 2016, there was a much higher quarter-on-quarter growth in exports to non-EU countries.





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22 Feb 2017 2:22 PM by perrypower1 Star rating in Derbyshire/Fuerteven.... 647 posts Send private message

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The ONS cut its estimate for growth in 2016 as a whole to 1.8%, down from the 2% it forecast last month. 

This downward revision pushes UK slightly below Germany, with an estimate of 1.9%, in the G7 growth league and UK GDP breakdown shows real household spend up 0.7%, even though employees' compensation grew by just 0.1%. This is not sustainable growth in the UK.

ONS also said there had been a slowdown in business investment, which fell by 1% compared with the three months to the end of September.

UK GDP may have gained some momentum into the end of 2016, but recent news from UK seems to have shown that that momentum has been lost in the early weeks of 2017

I expect the UK to fall further down the G7 growth league table as a result of Brexit

 

 


This message was last edited by perrypower1 on 22/02/2017.



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22 Feb 2017 3:28 PM by Jarvi Star rating in Halifax UK and Sucin.... 756 posts Send private message

 

Today’s revised GDP data were a mixed bag of good and bad news, but this doesn’t change the big picture that the UK continued to grow steadily during the six months following the Brexit vote.

“Estimated fourth quarter GDP growth was marked up slightly from 0.6% to 0.7% due primarily to stronger estimated growth in manufacturing. This was linked also to a combination of stronger export growth on the back of a more competitive pound and a gradually strengthening world economy.

“Consumer spending growth also remained solid in the fourth quarter as a whole, although the latest retail sales figures suggest that this has shown signs of tailing off in December and January.

“Less positively, estimated annual GDP growth in 2016 was revised down from 2% to 1.8%, pushing the UK slightly below Germany (1.9%) in the G7 growth league, though the difference is well within the margin of error on any such early GDP estimates.

The main reason for the downward revision seems to have been weaker North Sea oil and gas production during the first half of 2016; however, this is a sector-specific trend that does not really reflect the underlying strength of the UK economy. Excluding oil and gas output, estimated UK GDP growth might actually have been revised up in 2016.





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22 Feb 2017 3:41 PM by tteedd Star rating in Hertfordshire & Punt.... 990 posts Send private message


An elected second house would be unworkable

 

We used to have a house of lords that was mainly full of hereditry peers whith a few people enobled after usually distiguished political career. This generally worked reasonably well as a revising chamber with useful scrutiny of measures that may not have been thought through properly in the commons. Many people however thought a system based on accident of birth was indefensible in a modern state. As you say an elected assembly has been proposed (twice) but never legislated for. The trouble with an elected assembly would be that it's members would feel that they had the authority of the electorate. The friction between the two houses might as you say make things difficult if not unworkable.

Now we have the worst of all worlds, an upper house assembled by political patronage made up of political also rans, has beens, those that have purchased their place by political donations and worthless political time servers. In many cases a gravy train for those who are already living at public expense who have never lived in the real world and in no way represent the electorate or public at large.

You could envisage a house made up from the great and good from outside politics. leading industrialists, scientists, bankers - the top men/women from all walks of life. I think it would be a good idea but unless you gaurded against the political patronage it might just end up similar to what we have. But at least you could envisage a mechanism where they might be picked by bodies outside politics.

As I said earlier, I long ago thought that the best idea I have ever heard was that the upper house should consist of people selected in the same way as juries. You could perhaps envisage a system where the electorate got to say if they wished to keep their existing local member or have him/her replaced at the time of a general election. A house formed in this way would be truely representitive of the population but would not have the authority of an elected assembly.

Once our exit from the EU is accomplished it is something that needs to be looked at. Some way of making sure it is not just politicians that design the new house is a must if we are to have a successful outcome. Hence my suggestion of an Electoral Commission to look at the options.





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22 Feb 2017 4:17 PM by windtalker Star rating. 1950 posts Send private message

A few people on this forum are the same as the new self elected leader of the Remoners party ...... Mr Tony Blair the profit of doom and gloom he made a full of himself when he made statements regarding the economy of the UK ,he does not know anymore than the rest of us do ......the Pratt was paid by Richard Branson to make the speach yes that's the man that lives on his own private island so far removed from reality With his own private army of security guards what the hell Doe's to toffs know about inner city living these 2 would not shake your hand unless they are being paid so for your sake stop moaning about the Breaxit it's coming  accept this we in the UK will survive and what ever price we have to pay the EU for getting control of our country back is well worth it.





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22 Feb 2017 4:31 PM by Jarvi Star rating in Halifax UK and Sucin.... 756 posts Send private message

Tony "line my pockets" Blair had this in his election manifesto for Sedgefield in 1983

"We'll negotiate a withdrawal from the EEC which has drained our natural resources and destroyed jobs"

What's changed?





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22 Feb 2017 5:24 PM by robertt8696 Star rating in Midlands, UK. 479 posts Send private message

Jarvi, in short its Tony Blair thats changed.

 


This message was last edited by robertt8696 on 22/02/2017.



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