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Telegraph today:-
Economists said April's contraction in UK manufacturing provided the "clearest sign yet" that uncertainty ahead of the June 23 vote is starting to weigh on the real economy.
The survey compiler estimates that UK manufacturers have suffered "close to 20,000 job losses" over the past three months.
Its latest quarterly healthcheck described uncertainty surrounding Britain's referendum on EU membership as a "considerable" risk to the entire bloc.
Meanwhile the Eurozone continues on a path to recovery. Britain can benefit from that in the future if it remains in the EU. Brexit is likely to choke the life from that.
This message was last edited by Mickyfinn on 04/05/2016.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Baz. You twist my point to suit your purpose. You must be a politician☺
The astrology reference means the 'outs' will vote for something that they have no idea of the likely impact and future economic consequence for their nation.
Remaining in the EU is more predicable. Economic stability.
Micky I wish that I was a politician, clock in the house / Parliament, turn around, don't pass go, collect a couple of ton in cash, come back the next day for some more, plus all the goodies....Oh how I wish.
I am in business and have been for some years now, mix with quite a lot of great business people, I am not one of them in that sense of the word, nearly all I know want out as they don't see what you see "Economic Stability" for the greater future of the UK.
This is my point, we have had the EU, been in it, no one could see what it would turn out to be when it supposedly started off, which by the way wasn't sold to anyone what it is has turned into, why not? Because no one can predict what will happen tomorrow, hardly even today.
So no predictions as to what can or can't happen, in or out, I think this much though, once the vote gets counted and the UK stay in, the EU will have us over a barrel because of that vote...Sorry that ain't no prediction but the best I can do.
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Mickeyfinn
"But we now have situations that prevent the UK from trading openly with the rest of World (via the world trade council) and for UK Citizens to have the freedom to marry persons from outside the EU without jumping through hoops to prove their relationship is genuine.
Why is the UK prevented from trading openly with the rest of the world because of EU membership? Please explain. Is it not the UK itself that requires you to prove the relationship with a foreign bride is genuine? The UK put laws in place to prevent the trafficking of women from third world countries."
The situation with world trade was recently highlighted following 'Trade' visits by Osborne and co to India and China, and the Chinese state visit to the UK. As Nigel Ferage put it in an article in the Telegraph (not a tabloid!):
"inside the EU, the UK as the sixth largest economy in the world is forbidden – forbidden! – from negotiating her own trade deals. Our trade deals are not negotiated by British officials with the British national interest in mind, but instead by EU bureaucrats who aren’t necessarily looking for the best deal for Britain, but one which satisfies economies as varied as Germany to Greece, Spain to Slovakia.
It is bonkers. One size does not fit all when we talk about European economies and global trade.
Don’t forget, Britain would remain a member of over 100 international organisations outside of the EU. We would retain our seat on the UN Security Council, on the G7, in Nato, whilst at the same time reclaiming our own seat on the World Trade Organisation. A self-confident country negotiating our own deals, on our own terms, in our own right. That should be Britain’s bright future."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11679048/Nigel-Farage-It-is-bonkers-to-stay-in-the-European-Union.html
SO those of you who claim the Outers have no idea what would happen nor have researched this should do their own research.
With regards to Migration, we do not have a level playing field. We in the UK have a history of migration, principally from commonwealth countries but it has been made far more difficult for people to move to the UK in genuine cases, or for us to have highly skilled migrants come form overseas. This includes the problems the NHS and other organisations have had with the requirement to treat EU migrants equally even if they do are not fluent in English.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/david-camerons-uk-migration-crisis-target-valuable-non-eu-immigration-admit-defeat-1476982
In the case of my Nephew, British but working in Spain for an Irish airline, his wife American had frequent difficulties when arriving in the UK due to a grilling by Immigration as to their relationship under the tightened rules, so she now travels on her Spanish Id and has no problems. Reference the stories in the press about people who have lived in the UK in genuine relationships being told to leave.
And the reference to trafficking of women. There is large scale Immigration crime in the UK, not only related to the sex trade, remember Morcambe Bay and the Chinese Cockle Pickers? One of the biggest issues with the current migration crisis is that the people on the move are those with money to pay the traffickers, leaving behind those most affected by what they are leaving behind.
"The Modern Slavery Act 2015 is the first of its kind in Europe, and one of the first in the world, to specifically address slavery and trafficking in the 21st century." Europe done not have a grip on these issues.
This message was last edited by MikeandHelen on 04/05/2016.
This message was last edited by MikeandHelen on 04/05/2016.
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" once the vote gets counted and the UK stay in, the EU will have us over a barrel because of that vote "
I think without a strong statement and commitment for reform and the need for recognition of some genuine concerns from its EU citizens, togther with a mission statement of how such reform can be accommodated from the EU Commission in the interim, there will be many doubters who remain unconvinced, and be highly concerned about our realistic lack of influence if we remain in, Baz1946.
It seems somewhat ironic that they (from many quaters, including Obama) make mention (rhetoric) of suggesting our influence within the EU is necessary to improve the EU, and yet in reality such influence has been consistently criticised and dismissed over the years. It appears as hypocrisy and requires major reassurances for those who remain as doubters.
This message was last edited by ads on 04/05/2016.
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MikeandHelen.
There's a difference between a 'trade deal' and not being able to 'trade openly' as you put it. Of course the UK can trade with the devil if it wants. A trade deal make the terms more favorable that's all.
Is that not a fair idea to other nations with whom you trade freely and without barriers?
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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What with Obama declaring himself being in favour of our continued EU membership and now Trump stating that we may have to leave it, I wish that the pair of them would mind their own business. 
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I'm Spartacus, well why not?
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There's a difference between a 'trade deal' and not being able to 'trade openly' as you put it. Of course the UK can trade with the devil if it wants. A trade deal make the terms more favorable that's all.
Is that not a fair idea to other nations with whom you trade freely and without barriers?
You could always ask our fishermen about trading freely and fair.
Dress it up anyway you like but the UK in many cases cannot trade freely thanks to many EU regulations and our politicians lack of backbone and the capability to say "No we wont do that because it will destroy the UK"
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Mickeyfinn,
Yes thre is a difference between a Trade Deal and Trading openly. It's called the EU and the UK has to have trading relationships approved by a Eurocrat.
Now that Greenpeace have released the details of the secretly being negotiated Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) which includes tha ability for US firms to sue EU governments on competitive issues, I can only quote from Iain Dale on LBC Radio today "If that's the deal that's being done, I'm more than happy to be at the back of the Queue".
Personally I was wondering why there was not an EU - US trade deal (other than International Law and World Trade Council rules) and rather surprisingly for the scaremongering inners, this deal does not include free movement of people between the EU and the US.
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A fact that the UK IN camp and the EU are keeping quite about is that the NHS in the UK will be private health care backed up by meens testing before treatment is carried out ,the UK tax payer cannot afford to pay for the whole of the EU to have free healthcare or unemployment benefits for life when you have not payed a Penny into the system it is inevitable that the social security / pension system is going to collapse .
This message was last edited by windtalker on 05/05/2016.
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Presumably then all this negativity about EU membership equally affects other nations such as Germany and Italy. Both countries who rely on manufacturing and exports. The Germans seem to be able to trade with the rest of the world quite merrily. They have had a current account surplus for the last eight years. Why then not the UK?
Unless its all bunk of course.😇
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Presumably then all this negativity about EU membership equally affects other nations such as Germany and Italy. Both countries who rely on manufacturing and exports. The Germans seem to be able to trade with the rest of the world quite merrily. They have had a current account surplus for the last eight years. Why then not the UK?
Unless its all bunk of course.😇
Mrs B is German, and Germany is having problems, BIG problems, with more and more financial problems then the UK gets to know about. Italy was the hub once for white goods, are they still? or is it now China with different badges on.
I have said many times before, perhaps if the UK leaves that could be the stepping stone others want to get out, but are afraid to be the first one, who knows for sure?
As you say Germany trades with other countries, we would never know for sure if they said stuff the rules we are doing this like it or not, UK politicians say cant do that against EU rules, and don't expect Cameron to stand by the UK, he has just broken something else he said he wont do, take in another 3000 immigrant kids.
Merkel has ruined Germany with her own selfish policies, everything is figures to make a situation look like it should be, remember when the Labour party left, it was thought, and told no money left in the kitty, the Cons...(Clue is in the name)...told us the country is in a very bad way financially, supposedly we are told if we leave we cant / wont trade with others, so if we have been trading with these others whilst being in the EU, how come we are more trillions in debt now then when they took over.
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Every nation on the planet has its problems. Economic and demographic. Political and cultural. For disaffected British people grumbling about their lot the EU provides a convenient scapegoat. All the countries ills can be laid at that particular door. It also provides a platform for failed and ambitious politicians to beat the drum and be noticed.
If the referendum result is to leave, for the next day, next year and next decade these problems will still exist.
Briexiteers would have us believe leaving the EU will lead the country to the sunny uplands of prosperity a place where all is milk and honey. The actuality is of course at best nothing will change for the better and there is a high possibility everything will get far worse.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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*** Briexiteers would have us believe *** leaving the EU will lead the country to the sunny uplands of prosperity a place where all is milk and honey.
Isn't that true of the Inners as well, considering no one knows anything...Except of course we have been in it and it ain't working in favour for the UK?
But don't fret we wont be leaving as all you " Inners" will stitch up the figures to stay.
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baz:
If the EU isn’t working for the UK then presumably it 'isn’t working for anyone else. I don't see any other EU state currently offering a referendum to leave. The referendum was not called because the EU is not working for Britain.
The truth is the referendum was called by DC because he wants to settle the debate within the Tory party for a generation. It is a subject that has split the party in two. Unless the ugly head is lanced it has the possible risk of permanent damage.
As I see it the referendum vote is about retaining stability and growth against a leap into the unknown. You know what being in the EU means like it or not. To leave the consequences may well be dire.
There is an old saying, “be very careful what you wish for”.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Maybe it isn't working for them, maybe they like us are in it and want to leave but are also scared to, Just going with the flow, and of course most every politician wants to stay in, wonder why.
Might think differently when these other rubbish countries come in and flood the market again with good honest citizens, we have a shortage of barbers and plumbers.
If it is so good how come nearly all the ones who came in never got rid of the old currency they were using, Germany still has all it's old money, Spain has also, who else has? what they scared of if the Euro is so strong and powerful?
Wish I knew.
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Sorry Mickeyfinn, this is not just about Conservatives..... there are all too many EU citizens from many countries who are equally sufficiently discontented with the EU such that they too would prefer a referendum in the absence of effective EU reform and a "listening ear" to their understandable concerns affecting their everyday lives , but are being denied this by their politicians who you have referred to as part of the unaccountable "gravy train".
EU citizens are not being adequately listened to in this current system nor if the truth be known are their rights adequately protected according to the rule of law, nor are their livlihoods, pensions and healthcare systems adequately protected from the policies currently being implemented by those who have little appreciation of the wider consequences of their actions.
Willingness to reform and recognition of legitimate citizens concerns lies at the heart of this debate but is being consistently undermined via fear tactics and at times misinformation.
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Surely accountabilty lies between national government, local government or regional government and its electorate. I do agree the EU Commission would better serve the peoples of Europe if it was elected. Its a flaw in the constitution which I would like to see changed. Maybe it will be but its not a deal breaker for membership in my view.
There is an elected EU Parliament that's supposed to review the work of the commission.
There is an entire generation now of British people who have never known a Britain outside EU membership. The benefits are taken for granted. I'm from a generation that grew up in the aftermath of war. Then a European Union was just a pipe dream. The idea of being part of a great political project that would unite the peoples and countries of Europe was a wonderful thing.
I still believe in that principle. I still believe Britain and its future generations will be dimininished by not being a part of it. Europe will go on without the UK. It will thrive and prosper. Im quite sure of that. The British will be left occasionally peering into the window of a united and prosperous Europe ruing the day they left.
There was an old political slogan back in the day. 'The train was leaving the station better jump on board before it leaves'. Well the train is roaring along the tracks now and jumping off in mid journey carries very grave risk. Not scaremongering just a practical fact.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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A practical fact is that open door policy by the EU without adequate appreciation of the impact on existing societies that have taken their lifetimes of sacrifice and struggle to achieve, without correct forward planning and structures in place to fairly and realistically accommodate such aspirations has left EU citizens disillusioned, angry, and distrustful of those who STILL refuse to comprehend the uncomfortable realities from their decision making.
The structures and security from National, local and regional government that you refer to Mickeyfinn has been undermined by the EU policy of free movement without adequate forward strategic planning, or comprehension of how this would impact.
You imply we have influence,... Many fail to see this under the current structure. Plus why so little talk and willingness to face up to these failures from the EU Parliament and Commission and the need to address swift reform and recognise the impact on everyone's lives in the interim?
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Europe will go on without the UK. It will thrive and prosper. Im quite sure of that. The British will be left occasionally peering into the window of a united and prosperous Europe ruing the day they left.
I sincerly hope it does prosper without the UK...It will certainly need to without our weekly money to give it a helping hand up.
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ads:
The free movement of capital and labour is a central plank of the EU project. National governments all signed up to it so presumably they also did some sort of impact study before commitment.
I'm not sure the free movement within the EU causes the problems you suggest. There are inflows and outflows of people all the time. EU immigrants like myself contribute to the economy in many ways, bring skills and are willing to work harder for less.
Most of the UK negative focus on immigration is people from Africa and the Middle East. EU membership makes not one jot of difference to that, except to control external borders of the community together with partners.
I never really hear about the negative impact of European immigration in Spain. (Although I’m sure someone will write and say they have heard Spaniards grumbling). There are thousands of Eastern Europeans as well as British, Irish, Dutch, French and Russians. Why is only Britain impacted negatively? Or is it simply mud to throw at the Brexit debate to try and make it stick?
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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