| The Comments |
"The risk is between two poles either the UK will fall flat on it’s face or prosper to the level it has reached as an EU member. I doubt it will get beyond that. How could it defy history but the optimists believe in almost anything. I prefer historical facts to guide my futurist predictions and particularly for my investments."
I'll repeat the mantra 'we are going round in circles'. Only in your case you have not moved to start the first circle.
Over the years it has been clear that the EU and it's unwanted regulations has held the British economy back and prevented us from trading where we wanted to. In recent years we have acheived a little growth despite the slump in the EU. Freed, we could fly. But whatever we do it will be in the hands of our own parliament and not EU Commisioners and beaurocrats.
I predict that the UK will do reasonably well or very well. The EU will do poorly, if it does not reform. But everything depends on the quality, ability and political beliefs of whoever is elected/appointed on both sides. My view is worth at least as much as yours, as you have never been able to explain your blind faith in the EU. We have a head start as our politicians can taylor their actions to a more compact unit where they are not likely to begger one part at the expense of another. But we are still big enough to matter. One size can fit the UK - no chance for the EU.
"I lived through the fifties and seventies and remember how Britain struggled economically. The fifties was the aftermath of war the seventies industrial strife. Joining the EU made a huge difference to Britain and that fact should be recognised."
Again you have already shown to be wrong on these assertions several times. I too lived through this period. We did moderately well in the fifties and after and managed to rebuild despite crippling international responsibilities in the early years, the early removal of US aid compared with the continent, and while still paying our war loans. We would have done even better if we had not had governments which were either paternalist or socialist. Was MacMillan not right when he said "you have never had it so good"? Of course he was right. And as it has been pointed out to you before, four years after joining the EU we were broke and had to be bailed out by the IMF.
Your hindsight is through heavily tinted glasses.
Time to go to Specsavers Micky.
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Agreed Mickeyfinn, this is an educational thread but to suggest that I write about failings of the EU is to deny that there are aspects that need to be exposed, debated and addressed. To on the one hand admit that there is need for reform, but then to berate those who expose aspects where they consider reform is needed, appears totally contradictory, I'm afraid.
It's as though you are opposing for the sake of it, and not countering with alternative evidence or rational argument, as others do.
I have on many occasions agreed that the the UK leadership and decision making resulted in failings that required reform, but I have have also endeavoured to rationalise on occasion, some background logic as to why those decisions appear to have been made, what ongoing reforms and accountability on the UK's part have ensued (most notably the standing down of David Cameron, the ongoing persuit to address the major debt, the complex ongoing reform of the NHS system and benefit systems, which on occasions has been well overdue, but complex and compromised nevertheless by EU policy that failed to adequately address differentials, etc ). All part of the debate and educational nature of this thread. :)
Best I leave it there for now.
This message was last edited by ads on 09/03/2017.
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tteedd
Where has the EU stopped the UK from trading?
I predict the UK will fail, major companies will leave and teh UK will become more divisive as it breaks up
No good anyone looking back to the 50's, 60's and 70's or anytime in history (it has gone) but then again that's what the Brits do they like look backwards to yesteryear and the good old days, stiff upper lip, the empire, 1966 (for foootball fans ) and all that
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“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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"I prefer to be bullish because I believe in the project."
Yes, well I believed in the project once. But you can't continue to believe when every year that goes by sees more failures, scandal and abnegation of democracy. I continued to want to believe until 1992/3 when it became clear that as well as never being able to reform the monolith, it's institutions were deliberately working against the UK. The commission and bank chose to support the Franc in 92 but declined to support the Pound in 93 and appeared very disappointed when we resurfaced rather than sinking completely.
We have been banging our head against the wall for forty odd years. It's going to feel great when we stop.
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Hello
Oh how so true so very true the past has gone but some people think we are still selling Morris Oxfords to ex African colonies and Australia , New Zealand, Canada etc and regardining football. these fools who think we won the World cup five years ago for Gods sake it's 51 years please wake up .
M & L
nd r3ega
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Hello
Oh how so true so very true the past has gone but some people think we are still selling Morris Oxfords to ex African colonies and Australia , New Zealand, Canada etc and regardining football. these fools who think we won the World cup five years ago for Gods sake it's 51 years please wake up .
M & L
nd r3ega
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Where has the EU stopped the UK from trading?
Virtually everywhere to some extent (because of protectionist policies). Except within the EU where we are at a disadvantage because we tend to play by the rules.
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Nostalgia!
We stopped making the Morris Oxford in 1971 but India continued making them until three years ago!
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Tteedd
To who and to what extent exactly
The uk trades with most countries outside the eu under existing WTO rules
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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"the uk trades with most countries outside the eu under existing WTO rules "
Not true, the UK trades under EU rules. These may be within WTO rules or not.
You mentioned "research" suggest you start with TARIC
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This speech was made by Peter Lilley prior to the referendum, in which he analysed trade deals as follows:
"The truth about Britain's trade outside the European Union
PETER LILLEY 26 MAY 2016 • 10:01PM
Trade and the Single Market are key referendum issues yet I am the only MP with first-hand experience of either. Sadly, when politicians debate issues of which they have no experience they seize on any plausible argument which supports their case, even arguments that are the reverse of the truth.
Let me bring some facts to bear on claims made by those who want us to remain in the EU.
How important are trade deals? It pains me to admit – their importance is grossly exaggerated. Countries succeed, with or without trade deals, if they produce goods and services other countries want.
Tariffs between developed countries now average low single figures – small beer compared with recent movements in exchange rates. The most worthwhile trade agreements are with fast-growing developing countries which still have high tariffs.
Is our net £10 billion contribution to the EU a price worth paying for tariff-free access to the EU market? If we left the EU with no trade deal – inconceivable given the tariff-free zone from Iceland to Turkey – our exports would face EU tariffs averaging just 2.4 per cent.
But our net contribution to the EU budget is equivalent to a 7 per cent tariff. Paying 7 cent to avoid 2.4 per cent costs is miss-selling that dwarfs the PPI scandal!
Does EU membership help us negotiate free trade deals with the rest of the world? Tariff-free access to the fast growing, protected markets of Asia, Africa and Latin America would be worthwhile. Unfortunately, EU membership prevents us negotiating free trade deals – and the EU has negotiated few deals for us: none with China, India, Australia, Brazil.
Does the EU’s size mean it gets better deals than we could alone? This is the reverse of the truth. The more countries involved in a trade deal the harder, slower and worse the result.
All 28 EU members have a veto on their negotiations which is why EU deals take so long and exclude so much. Bilateral deals are simpler, quicker and more comprehensive.
Hence Chile has deals covering countries with collective GDP five times the EU’s deals. Even Iceland – population less than Croydon – has a trade agreement with China – as does Switzerland.
Would Britain have to renegotiate from scratch the EU’s existing trade deals? Under the “principle of continuity” in international law we can adapt existing EU treaties to the UK. We should start that process before leaving the EU.
Would negotiating continued free trade with the EU take many years? Trade deals to remove tariffs involve complex trade-offs between differing tariffs on thousands of products and facing up to the vested interests they protect.
Negotiating continuing tariff-free trade between the UK and EU simply means keeping zero tariffs.
Do only European Economic Area members have access to the Single Market? The Single Market is talked about as if it were some inner sanctum accessible to a privileged few.
In fact, every country has access to the Single Market – with or without tariffs.
The Single Market, involved harmonising product rules – sensible, since businesses can now make one product range for the European market, not 28. But that benefits American and Japanese exporters as much as German or British firms.
People assume Britain benefits from participating in setting these rules. But rules provide a framework within which all companies operate – not an advantage to any individual country.
British exports to the EU have grown less rapidly since the Single Market than they did before, less than our partners’ and much less than non-EU countries’ exports!
Maybe that is partly because we suffer EU regulations on 100 per cent of our companies whereas non-EU firms need only comply with EU regulations on activities carried out within the EU.
Our shops are full of goods from countries with which we have no trade deal. They are not essential now tariffs between developed countries are so low.
But outside the EU we will be able to negotiate speedily the really worthwhile deals to access fast growing protected markets such as China, India and Brazil which the EU has ignored.
And we can retain free trade with the EU without paying our current entry fee which costs more than the tariffs we avoid.
Peter Lilley MP was Secretary of State for Trade and Industry 1990-92
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Tteedd
Yes the eu and it's member states are members of WTO and trade accordingly and how will the uk get any better trade deals with WTO members than it has now as a member of the eu and why would any of them give the uk a better deal
So come on who are the countries the eu stopped the uk trading with exactly and to what extent exactly
This message was last edited by Tadd1966 on 09/03/2017.
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Tadd
You are the one banging on about research. The EU lists 50 countries that it has trading agreements with, some would put the figure lower as many are just preferential agreements in some areas. There are 196 countries in the world all the remainder of which, except EU members, are subject to full EU external tarriffs. So off you go - clue Mexico and El Salvador have agreements.
This message was last edited by tteedd on 09/03/2017.
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Mmm
Should have read ADS's post he has done much of the work for you!
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So who are the eu stopping the uk trading with?
You said it not me
So uk does not Trade with Mexico or el Salvador because the eu stop them are you sure
What countries outside of the eu do the uk have full free tariff trade that the eu does not have
What countries are going to offer tariff free trade to the uk post brexit or even a better trade deal than currently exists with eu states or under WTO rules
As discussed before there is a difference between free trade agreements and tariff free trading and WTO trading is not tariff free
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Why this perversion with tariff free trade when tariffs nowadays average under 4%
Countries will buy or sell to you, provided the goods are required and reasonable value, FULL STOP..
Only the EU creates tariff barriers and regulations than many third world countries cannot always meet.
Sugar, I believe is one, to protect EU growers of beet.
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Why is everyone so concerned about imports and exports from within the EU we are more than capable of growing our own vegetables in the UK ....and we will do the same as the rest of the world does ..and just carry-on importing cheap electronic white goods and mobile phones and the likes from China just in case no one has notice China is not a member of the EU and you don't hear any members of the EU block trying to put a stop to extremely cheap goods from China I buy Chinese goods on a daily basis all I do is pay the p&p + import duty and it still works out much cheaper than buying from anywhere in the EU block.
This message was last edited by windtalker on 10/03/2017.
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You buy Chinese goods on a "daily basis"? Those washing machines don't last long, then.
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Washing machines in Argos UK £160 delivered with a 2 year warranty at that price you can do what everyone else does and recycle it when in brakes down and buy another one when the warranty has run out ...this is why you will find it extremely difficult to get white goods repaired out of warranty it is not cost affective.
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Windtalker, you say," we are more than capable of growing our own vegetables in the UK ...." you are right we are, but where you are wrong is that we cannot grow enough for the domestic demand, which is why so much fruit and vegetables come from within the EU, Spain being a massive exporter of fruit and veg to the UK. Ever seen fields of peppers and oranges in the UK? i think not.
Another point is that what cannot be sourced from the EU is sourced worldwide, often at prices so low, in my opinion, its an insult to the farmers growing the goods. These goods are sourced and paid for outside the EU so are subject to WTO rules not EU trading tariffs and sanctions.
As the passage from Peter Lilley states, outside the EU these tariffs would be much lower, so in theory would kickstart import and export, and contribute to the UK and its balance of payments considerably. In addition there is nothing to stop the EU and Theresa May negotiating favourable trading rules with the UK to and from the EU, resulting in much the same as currently, also helping the UK (and the EU as trading partners)
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