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Tadd
Of course there are a multitude of issues that will require negotiation, possibly why the UK has hinted it could well be prepared to pay towards access to single market, it is not denying it, but what fee will the EU want and what is acceptable.
Norway, Switzerland already have deals, no reason why the UK shouldn't.
The biggest sticking point and always has been is this complete freedom of movement of people.
This was designed as freedom to "work" in EU countries not as a free for all for anyone succeeding in achieving asylum in the EU to be permitted to SEEK work in another EU country.
This issue is dividing many EU nations with higher unemployment than us so is not limited to the UK alone.
Had DC succeeded in achieving movement on this from an intransigent EU, I believe the referendum result could well have been different and we would not be having this discussion.
Either the EU allows some changes OR we are completely outside trading via WTO rules, is that so bad?
We can still cooperate with Europe on many other matters, unless of course they all get the hump.
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There appear to be other factors at play here, such as France, Germany, Luxembourg, etc each seeking advantage from the lucrative Banking industry... Tactical manoeuvring during this transition period which begs questions as to any sincere commitment to achieve a negotiated solution.
Any thoughts?
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Hugh_man
I agree other than what DC tried to agree I.e. the 4 year break for non UK workers to get benefits
He failed because it was wrong and as I have said many times the handing out of benefits by the UK is the UK problem not the EU
The agreements other countries have include the feedom of movement etc will the uk accept this if not then they Will lose out on single market which is very bad IMO
As for WTO trading again why would they do the uk any big favours what has the uk to offer what is in it for them a potential market if 65M really big business NOT
UK industry is not owned by the UK and they could easily walk away as many have threatened
The banking sector will be up for grabs and many countries are ready to bid
Do teh UK wnat continued acces to teh single market?
If teh answ is yes then the uK wil have to accpet freedom of movement etc. which is what the EU are saying
If the UK is not prepared to accept freedom of movement etc then no point in negotiating access to the single market so take it off the table and move on. Focus on other things e.g. what tariffs etc will be enforced
Clearly state this now and see what reaction the markets and businesses have, why wait until it is too late - it is called planning
What are the details of any of these WTO deals - would they insist on some form of visa free entry freedom of movement etc.
None of this (EU or WTO) will be one way and 100% in favour of teh UK so what are they?
This message was last edited by Tadd1966 on 08/12/2016.
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“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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The EU have said ,the UK has only 18 months to complete article 50 ,so what will happen if it is going to take the UK longer to complete and leave the EU are they going to kick us out l wonder .
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The vote in the House of Commons yesterday was a victory for common sense: Government Ministers are now committed to setting out enough detail to enable MPs to hold the government to account, and to ensure that the Office of Budget Responsibility can fulfill its statutory obligation to scrutinise the sustainability of the public finances if and when Brexit takes place.
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland need to be reassured that their concerns will be addressed; and the May plan must start to build a consensus between the 48% and the 52% of the British population divided by the referendum.
These are serious objectives. They are the basis for the long established principle of parliamentary scrutiny which the Brexit vote did not change.
Ads:
The Brexit referendum as soon as it was announced was a declaration to the rest of Europe that Britain was prepared to risk everything including their banking industry. The competition in European states see Brexit as an generational, once in a lifetime opportunity to acquire the financial services assets of Britain by offering deals for transition and relocation to Europe.
Who would blame them for that? It’s business and business is all about weakening the competition for your own advantage.
If passporting of financial services is not negotiated successfully expect at least half of the City of London to migrate to Europe on very favorable terms. I have seen estimates by government predicting that occurrence which are woefully unrealistic. The risks to the British economy without passporting are truly grave. You have to ask the question why would Europe offer the UK anything that is not to their advantage. Michel Barnier is very conciouss of that. He has been wanting to get his hands on the City of London all his political life.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Yes Ads, interesting that a number of cities are apparently courting some banks with financial advantages, so much for a level playing field.
On that basis it most certainly not in the interests of the EU to concede on anything, as excluding the UK will give them more chance to pinch some of their business.
i still maintain that business and industry collects around an area of expertise, cooperation and synergies.
This exists in the City of London, where more companies seek capital from the LSE than any other country.
More investment funds, invest pension and insurance funds.
More banks attempt to serve the investment, pension and insurance funds.
It is a complex and certainly not a binary business, any banks moving away from the centre of business risk being out in the cold IF the whole industry does not upsticks and relocate together, unlikely.
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Mickeyfinn quoted, "Michel Barnier is very concious of that. He has been wanting to get his hands on the City of London all his political life."
And there we sadly have a statement that says it all ( if this be true), in terms of potential to scapegoat a country from the outset, using a country for its own ends ( manipulative ploys to strip assets, impact it's infrastructure, its benefit system intended to protect those disadvantaged in society, it's health, education, housing and rental sectors, decimating cohesion in that process,..... basically crippling a country into submission, without any intent to reform or review or provide flexible transient interim controls ( recognise the pattern of control and lack of realistic timely corrective measures with Greece and Italy with due concern for its citizens)?
And all in the "game" to cripple a country into submission without any moral obligations or flexibility to respond to unintended consequences born from intransigence and failure to listen to the significant concerns of citizens, with all the consequential downward spiral effects?
Does this sound like a club to be proud of?. That causes division in this manner, that thrives on bullying tactics, that fails to listen to its citizens?
Does such hidden agenda with lack of moral fibre, the likes of Michael Barnier and the power of financial elites and corporations that play "games" with people's lives in this blackmailing fashion have any place in a club that was intended to protect against such factors and nurture cohesion...... Not decimate it!
The picture you paint Mickeyfinn does not inspire confidence in the EU structure or its intent to protect citizens, just the opposite I'm afraid.
This message was last edited by ads on 08/12/2016.
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ads what planet to you inhabit? I ask the question seriously and kindly because your posts and views seem to be similar to those of a Buddist Monk sitting in a temple somewhere and contemplating what the universe could be like if only it were different.
The rest of us sadly have to grub in the world that we actually have. I also wish it were different, more morally aware, more considerate to others less fortunate but it's not it's dog eat dog.
Today's world belongs to the Trump/Farage/Putin philosophy with all the meaning that carries.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Today's world belongs to the Trump/Farage/Putin philosophy with all the meaning that carries.
????????????
What philosphy? What meaning?
What has Putin in common with Trump or Farage?
Definitely seems like the musings of some sort of monk.
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ads
I have not copied your latest post but most of what you say could just as easily apply to the UK and most policticains around the world
Why would the EU have the UK's best interest at heart, why not look after your own and why not look to benefit?
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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teedd You are playing 'devils advocate' I think you know what I was referring to but it would require another thread to explore the subject further and in any detail. If you want to explore the subject Google Popularisim.
I make no negative comment about it save to say the world belongs to the young and if they choose that form of political development for their future then so be it.
Populism is a political doctrine that stems from a viewpoint of struggle between the populace and a ruling faction
Populism is most common in democratic nations. Political scientist Cas Maud wrote that, "Many observers have noted that populism is inherent to representative democracy; after all, do populists not juxtapose 'the pure people' against 'the corrupt elite'
In the United States, populism has generally been associated with the left, whereas in European countries, populism is more associated with the right. In both, the central tenet of populism—that democracy should reflect the pure and undiluted will of the people—means it can sit easily with ideologies of both right and left, However, while leaders of populist movements in recent decades have claimed to be on either the left or the right of the political spectrum, there are also many populists who reject such classifications and claim not to be "left wing," "centrists or "right wing."
WIKIPEDIA
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Mickeyfinn,
For the EU to perpetuate a system that fails given its current structure and refuses to recognise those failings and harm to its citizens in that process, and remain willing to turn blind eyes to uncomfortable realities and unintended consequences from its policy of uncontrolled freedom of movement, to perpetuate non adherence to stability mechanisms that were set up to create balance and protection, to follow far too speedy accessions without due regard to the actual impact on cohesion, without due regard for wage differentials and stripping member states of their labour force, without adequate consideration of debt ratios and unemployment ratios to identify those member states whose people are not intending to seek work due to unemployment but are economic migrants, without due regard for civilised benefit structures intended and developed to assist disadvantaged nationals, and the subsequent impact on differing member states, etc, without adequate forward planning and flexibility to respond, to fail to monitor and heed growing citizen concerns, without due regard to encourage greater self reliance and growth within individual member states, and all in the name of creating an ideological federal state, whilst issuing rhetoric that implies all is fine with the status quo, is extraordinary and appears as denial and negligence.
No, Mickeyfinn seriously and kindly I ask the question who is in denial here?
Tadd,
the failure of DC during his tenure as PM has been rightly discussed within this thread and attempts to reform those aspects already highlighted and debated are in progress, and I make no attempt to dismiss those failures.
But that does not relinquish the EU from addressing it's significant failures and their impact on cohesion across and within member states, and requirement for mutually beneficial solutions in a manner that best serves the interests of citizens ,where bullying and alienation if left uncorrected will do great harm.
This message was last edited by ads on 08/12/2016.
This message was last edited by ads on 08/12/2016.
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the failure of DC during his tenure as PM has been rightly discussed within this thread and attempts to reform those aspects already highlighted and debated are in progress, and I make no attempt to dismiss those failures.
But that does not relinquish the EU from addressing it's significant failures and their impact on cohesion across and within member states, and requirement for mutually beneficial solutions in a manner that best serves the interests of citizens ,where bullying and alienation if left uncorrected will do great harm.
Ads I don't disagree but where has the UK addressed it's significant failures and their impact on cohesion across and the 4 member states and regions of the UK, - it has done just a bad a job as the EU and the inevitable break up of the UK is the next mess that will hit the UK
One could say pot, kettle and black or those who live in glass houses should not throw stones etc etc etc
The trend has been for many years and even more so over the last few months to blame the EU for everything. No doubts the EU has failings but so does just about every other govt including the UK
I think and believe the EU will reform long term and become stronger (for sure not in our lifetime) and the key will be the next few generations as they tidy up the mess our current generation has caused - but very sadly the UK will play no part in this and will have no say in these reforms
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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I actually think that Ads has just summed up the problems the EU and therefore the UK are facing.
The EU has to be prepared fir change just as the UK are now trying to negotiate.
Status Quo in EU is a non starter.
Nothing more to add.
Top post.
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Just noted this.
Micky said
The rest of us sadly have to grub in the world that we actually have. I also wish it were different, more morally aware, more considerate to others less fortunate but it's not it's dog eat dog.
Today's world belongs to the Trump/Farage/Putin philosophy with all the meaning that carries.
So it's dog eat dog is it.
Wherecexactly does that concept fit into a Federalised Europe where we are all supposed,y equal.
I think it is you that lives in the fantasy world of fair Communism, fair integration, fair idealism, you are right, one size does not fit all, why try to impose it.
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Tadd said.
I think and believe the EU will reform long term and become stronger (for sure not in our lifetime) and the key will be the next few generations as they tidy up the mess our current generation has caused - but very sadly the UK will play no part in this and will have no say in these reforms
.......
Tadd, I think we all hope you are right, sadly Brexit may just be one of the triggers that brings about that change and reform, as other nations are already asking for.
Who knows, not in our lifetime, but we may all be back together, why wouldn't be permitted a say, in a better stronger Europe having learned the lessons from the past.
That Is of course if Trump doesn't pick a fight with the Chinese first, another story.
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Interesting that the number of applications for UK Residency from EU citizens is running so high.
They obviously don't fear Brexit.
http://www.brebners.com/news-item/brexit-round-residency-application-backlog-home-office
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Huge wrote- I think it is you that lives in the fantasy world of fair Communism, fair integration, fair idealism, you are right, one size does not fit all, why try to impose it.
Attacking the messenger once more. I am not a Communist and I am not a populist either. I believe in European solidarity, democracy and liberal free market economics.
Brexit is an opportunity for EU states to benefit from the need for financial institutions to remain with pass porting rights within the single market. The French finance minister reported today that over half of British banks have made approaches to relocate to Paris if these rights are denied after the negotiations.
You cannot deny that Brexit will impact negatively on the UK’s financial service industry on which it depends for its GDP. You cannot deny Britain is facing the risk of isolation from global trade after Brexit. Even the government itself has acknowledged Britain is going to suffer years of difficulties after Brexit.
The UK cannot negotiate free trade deals with WTO nations until it formally leaves the Union. Trade deals take years to accomplish. Who are going to buy British goods during the transition years if the EU block access to the EU as is highly likely?
It’s in the EU best interests not to encourage any other nation to be tempted to damage its own nation by following Cameron’s example. I believe the EU will make an example of Britain in the same way a parent would behave towards an errant child. Mr Davis is in for a shock when the negotiations start. I have had long expereince of negotiating with the French and it's not any easy business.
It may not be right or morally justified but it’s réale politique and the French in particular are quite adept at that as well.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Mickyfinn said:
The UK cannot negotiate free trade deals with WTO nations until it formally leaves the Union. Trade deals take years to accomplish. Who are going to buy British goods during the transition years if the EU block access to the EU as is highly likely?
The EU will not block access but it will not be tariff free. Many EU suppliers and buyers will simply impose Incoterms on UK businesses obliging the UK businesses to pay the tariffs (imports and exports) minimising the EU business costs and increasing the UK businesses costs
Yes MF international trade deal take years but the exiters think the WTO will solve all of the problems and it will be immediate?
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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If we can't negotiate free trade deals with WTO countries until after Brexit, we'll simply trade with them under WTO rules.
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