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Windtalker
So your post confirms the 17.5m who voted to leave did not know what trade deals and other matters they were voting for or what experts would be doing what job
No team no deals or other matters no plan no idea no experts
The uk will need a lot of luck or is it pit luck just like the vote
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“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Tadd1966 the UK is a long way from being a third world country in fact we have a host of expert's just waiting in the shadows that have been educated in UK universities these people will make the UK a extremely strong force to deal with ,now while we are on the subject of third world countries you don't have to look far as at least half of the 27 EU member states are just a kick in the Arse of being one.
This message was last edited by windtalker on 23
This message was last edited by windtalker on 23/01/2017.
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How likely is that?
We will see won't we Micky.
But as posters have been pointing out to you all the time this board has been in existance a deal is in the EU's interest. There are some like Malta's PM who want to cut of Germanys nose to spoil the EU's face but the negotiations will bring a dose of reality. We start from a position of no tarriffs, why would anyone want to blink first?
You still base all your argument on your idea that leaving the EU is a disaster. You just knew we were going down the tubes last summer but it never happened. Some of us know that we are actually leaving a protectionist cabal that is holding the economies of the EU back and allowing the emerging world to take our trade. If we play it right we are escaping, not heading for, a possible disaster.
This message was last edited by tteedd on 23/01/2017.
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From a continental perspective, 53.6% of UK exports by value are delivered to European trade partners while 22.5% are sold to Asian importers.
United Kingdom ships another 16.1% to North America but just 2.6% to Africa.
However as 53.6% (2015) of UK exports by value are delivered to European trade partners, it's also worth bearing in mind that the UK incurred the highest trade DEFICITS ( in dollars ) with the following countries:
Germany - 46.1 billion
Netherlands - 20.3 billion
Norway - 14.1 billion
Belgium - 13.5 billion
France - 9.1 billion
Spain - 8.2 billion
Poland - 6.9 billion
And that doesn't take into account the impact of swift uncontrolled free movement on our infrastructure, our housing supply, our health system, lowering of worker's wage levels, etc.
This coupled with the UK deficits with France Spain and Belgium growing at the fastest pace for 2011-2015, you start to recognise the negotiating power and incentive from both sides to seek out mutually beneficial deals….
Will Germany and Netherlands be willing to turn a blind eye to 66 billion dollars worth of surpluses of trade from the UK, let alone the remainder of member states?
But on the other hand where's the incentive for the UK to continue indefinitely with these levels of deficits, and not seek out alternatives? Doesn't it make sense to recognise these uncomfortable realities before it's too late and for the UK to address the need to seek a wider global market in order to survive in the longer term?
It would appear that Ttedd is correct in his analysis when he states, “Some of us know that we are actually leaving a protectionist cabal that is holding the economies of the EU back and allowing the emerging world to take our trade.”
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windtalker
Don't kid yourslef the UK could very easily drop in the world economy esepcailly after brexit as the UK has nothing unique to offer
As for the experts in the shadows - experts on what, who are they? I am sure all other countreies have just as highly qualified and highly educated (in their own excellent universities) experts in the shadows who will make a much stronger force to deal with and they have more experts than the UK on pure population basis
I wonder how many of these experts in the shadows will start running for big paid jobs eleswhere (another brain drain)
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“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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I accept the EU has an incentive to reach a trade deal with Britain. However you need to balance that fact with first an acknowledgement that the EU is a political organisation first and a trading one second.
I believe there is a stronger desire on the part of the majority in Europe to support and defend the founding principles and in particular the four freedoms. One important nation leaving the block does not change the values or strength of the aspirations of 500 million peoples who share a common aim.
If the EU capitulates and allows the UK to leave without cost it will encourage the populist’s political parties of other member state to also campaign to leave. The organisation becomes then weakened by Brexit. That is unacceptable to the majority.
That position my not sit well with many people but real politique is what rules the world.
Windtalker - Democracy is about free speech and opposition to bad politics you don’t agree with. It is not ‘moaning’ it’s trying to hold politicians, policy and political direction of travel to account and stating you own view. It would be a strange world indeed if everyone simply accepted the status quo without murmur.
Would you dismiss the hundreds of thousands of women who protested around the world against Trump as 'moaners'?
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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Yes he would Micky. He is one of those people that if you don't agree with his 'world view' you are a moaner.
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A lot is said about obnoxiously high salaries, Corbyn appears to be the standard bearer, however don't they/he mean people who destroy companies and people's lives whilst still having their snouts deep in the trough? If Brexit tempts these guys to take their complete entrepreneurial voids to other climes, so much the better.
The EU is a money pit run by amateurs, we as a nation have been restricted, reviled and ruled by them, what does that little Maltese jobsworth know about running the show? I wager that he couldn't grasp the principle of 'profit on return', but having said that I reckon that Corbyn would struggle.
Bring on Article 50, and if the 2 chambers don't take heed of the people, bring on a general election.
This message was last edited by Destry on 23/01/2017.
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The only thing we run a positive balance of trade on is Financial Services.
Trump whats to repeal regulation on Financial Insitutions of all type including getting rid of Frank-Dodd act.
New York has always wanted to replace London as the world's Financial Centre so I can assure you that Financial Services will not be covered by any UK-USA Trade Deal. The net result is we will see Financial Services moving from London to New York not the EU.
A Trade Deal with Canada will not cover Financial Services unless it sees a move away from London to Toronto and that is the same with a Trade Deal with the EU where we will see Financial Services further dilluted in London and hived off to Paris, Frankfurt, Milan etc. in chunks which is already happening.
New York has always had a depth to its Financial Markets that no one can compete with, but they have never had the breadth of products and experience that are in London. Other EU cities have neither depth nor breadth. If I was Trump, I would be working on a trade deal with Europe based around Financial Services as that is where the real money lies in expanding US Trade and it is something the EU needs. If they can't get what they want out of a deal with the UK why not do a deal with the US.
The rest of the products (that the EU wants) will be had from whoever offers the best price/service/value and that does not mean the UK necessarily. The UK has long benefitted from being a bridge into the EU. It is highly undervalued and it is about to end.
Also, be aware that the other countries that are lining up to do a trade deal with the UK (except New Zealand who are small potatoes) want Freer Movement of their citizens into the UK (Australia, Singapore, India.)
We run the very high risk of trading off our golden goose in return for less EU immigrants and more immigrants from other countries.
Brexit means poorer however you slice it.
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According to the news today more than one million EU migrants will migrate to the UK in the next two years....... what do these people know about the EU that Remoaners don't ,why are so many coming to the UK .when we are leaving the EU .
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Yes windtalker I would also like to know why all these EU migrants want to come to benefits paradise before the gate is closed.
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Excellent well thought post PP, it gets right to the heart of the matter. New York is the natural home for UK financial services post Brexit. Trump knows May is in a very difficult position on the back foot and I expect him to take full advantage. His ‘America First’ policy will mean picking the juicy bits from the carcass of post Brexit Britain..
George Soros made a very interesting speech at Davos last week. He said that Brexiteers were in complete denial regarding the economic catastrophe waiting for the UK post Brexit. He also said that Trump would fail because the USA has tried protectionism before; it failed then and will fail now.
Of course the politicians that supported Brexit have to maintain their stance to retain their credibility but in private they are not so stupid. I believe they know what’s facing Britain but the ideology takes precedence. It suits their own personal purposes and in any way they will probably be out of a job when Brexit fails the nation..
The losers are the fellow travellers that followed them into the ballot simply because they wanted rid of immigrants. Maybe that will be one form of justice. Democracy has ways of leveling the playing fields.
This message was last edited by Mickyfinn on 23/01/2017.
_______________________
Time is the school in which we learn
Time is the fire in which we burn.
Delmore Schwartz.
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It now seems that the remainers on this site believe the US will become the major financial centre and not the EU. Quick change of mind that!
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The Mickyfinn/perrypower 1 mutual appreciation society is getting to be boringly predictable, one could be forgiven for thinking that their posts are mutually rehearsed.
🤔
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IF YOU WISH TO QUOTE ANY OF MY POSTS PLEASE DO SO IN THEIR ENTIRETY AND NOT JUST A FEW SELECTED WORDS TOTALLY OUT OF CONTEXT.
THANK YOU.
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Does anyone (except Mickey / PP) really think that the major financial institutions are thinking that Donald Trumps new America is going to be the safest place to trade their well earned cash?
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pp
One of the many reasons for Londons position as a strong financial sector besides its historic expertise, entrepreneurial attitudes and understanding of banking and insurance is its geographical positioning.
It is well placed to deal with the Far East and the Americas when you consider time zones, I should know, I did early morning shifts to cover Australasia for many years.
Of course thecEU will see some activity IF financial institutions are obliged to have a European presence, but this need only be minimal to comply and the majority will continue to base their business in the U.K., especially IF we do have offer lower taxes to attract business.
US banks have long fallen over themselves to have major operations in London because of the synergies of financial business. This will NOT change.
Apple and Google do business all over the world and don't need to be part of the EU but their European operations are based in Ireland for tax reasons but Googles operation centre is in the U.K.
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If the UK decided for some unknown reasons to stay in the EU how would the EU go about helping UK to control the mass migration from the EU this sort of migration is no good for the country that they are coming from and is certainly no good for the UK.any ideas are welcome.
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windtalker
If the UK stays in the EU the UK would simply have to change its polciy on health care, welfare payments and tax credits, in work benefits (propping up salaries and businesses) entiltments etc. in line (or similar) with say for example the system Spain has. I.e change from residency based to contribution and citizen based
This is NOT an EU problem
Then this so called mass migration you keep on about from the EU will reduce to those who simply come to work and study. It will also impact the desire of refugees to get to UK (which BTW will not stop or reduce and it may get worse post brexit)
_______________________
“The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance; it is the illusion of knowledge”
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Tadd1966 so what you are saying is that all the EU migrants are scroungers that come to the UK ,and l was under the impression that the where all highly skilled worker's .....l have learned something to day thanks for the information.
This message was last edited by windtalker on 23/01/2017.
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