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Long FTSE straddles Hughy. Don't worry your pretty little head about it now. Sleep tight.
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Hi Tteedd,
Its too late to change peoples minds, so this is more of a conversation for the sake of one.
I think the biggest concern I have is the concept of new trade deals. To me, it seems quite strange that the out campaign states deals can be done quickly, when, honestly, there are two sides to the deal, and each side wishes to maximise their position. There wont be any instance where we will be able to dictate to anyone what the deal will be, especially when there is so much money at stake. Both sides will want to make sure they thoroughly dot the i's and cross the t's.
Having 40% or so of the british economy tied to the EU represents quite a risk if things go bad. And despite the often quoted German car manufacturers and how much money the make selling to the UK, at the end of the day, the EU only has 9% invested with us. That figure wont disappear entirely. Tarriffs will be imposed, and its likely that the figure may drop a little (8%? 7%? Who knows.) But, it will happen. Why? Because the EU is run by committee, and there will be a ton of back room deals (remember everyone calling out the corruption), wanting to punish us for turning our backs on them.
This wouldnt be a trade war. If it was, we would lose badly, with 40% of our economy exposed, and literally the fate of the nation at stake. This would be a risk too great to bare. It would be economic suicide for us to go to a trade war with them over a realistic drop of maybe 1 or 2 percentage points of output either side.
As for Airbus, or any other company, they will do what is best for them. I dont know what that might be, and there are hundreds, if not thousands of them, and they all have human beings with their own ideas running them. But, we have seen many large institutions already coming out with strong positions on this, saying they'll move, and almost credible every reconomic prediction is suggesting out will be a negative (not sure if you read it, but a recent survey of something like 600 economists had 88% of them saying out is negative). Make of that what you will.
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Hi Rob
I sort of put my input to bed this afternoon when I said polling starts at 7 am.
But as you address your post to me.
Trade deals:
We do not need any with the EU. We just assume that we continue as usual. That can happen in any case for two years from when we give notice to quit. There is no way that France or Germany after that period will have any incentive to impose tarriffs on our exports. But if we are talking about the rest of the world we will be able to conclude details in a fraction of the time that the EU does becuse we will not have 27 nations to consider and we will be looking for genuine free trade not a deal that includes EU protectionist policies.
Tariffs will not be imposed. As I have said there is no incentive to do so, the EU has £60b of trade to loose. Southern Europe is in a very bad way and there is no way that France and Germany will want to risk the very slow recovery in the north. All the scare stories are based on the ridiculous idea that we will have tariffs on our exports to the EU. If Germany were for instance to agree to put 3% on British exports (devils advocate here it won't happen) we retaliate and also remove the 15% we put on cars from the far east. German car exports to the UK virtually stop with massive damage to German industy and we import a lot more cheaper cars from the far east. British consumer says thanks very much.
I agree with you about airbus and other companies they will do what is best for thier business.
Cameron went on the offensive over the economy (undemocratically using the taxpayers money) and even got telivision interviewers repeating his mantra about supposed experts. But there is no logic in it. Many of the so called experts are in hoc with the EU or are internationists who's income depend on taxpayers around the world. I have just watched sky with Ruth Lea and the economist from I think LU (the model that the £4300 worse off by 2030 came from). Ruth has long given a cogent common sense guide to the future of the economy outside the EU and her opposite number could not gainsay it without postulating things that will almost certainly not happen.
I have been looking at the EU for a long time. I have no doubt that it is holding us back economically and in the long run we can do a lot better outside (not cutting ourselves of from anyone). But this really is not the nub of the matter. The UK moved from fuedalism to universal sufferage and fredom under the law over a period of about seven hundred years up untill 1973. The past 40 years have seen us move backwards until we are mostly governed by an unelected and unrepresentitve commission in Brussels. Our highly qualified judges can be over-ruled by unqualified 'Judges' (political appointees). We can now be arrested and sent to rot in an eastern european prison without due process which I consider to be our right (dating back to Magna Carta). The inners say it does not happen but it already has under the European arrest warrant.
I just want the democratic system my father lived nearly all his life under and which I had for the first 30 years of my life, where if I do not like what my MP is doing I get the chance to help sack and replace him at least once every five years and I am innocent until proven guilty.
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This is an IMPORTANT message from you commander and chief please maintan Radio silence for the next 12 hours
I will update you further at 4.00 am GMT your future is SAFE in my hands
A kiss for all of you forum members
Love Hugh xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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Done the Spain thing Happier in the UK
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One particular poster's constant bragging has reminded me of a John Steinbeck quote in East of Eden, this being:-
"Perhaps the less we have, the more we are required to brag."
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I'm Spartacus, well why not?
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Hep you are not following horderves
Dunno about you but I never tire of Fawlty Towers. Some favourite quotes:
The Major: Bunch of Krauts, that's what they are, all of 'em. Bad eggs!
Basil: Yes well, forgive and forget, Major... God knows how, the bastards.
Basil: Oh, you're German! I'm sorry, I thought there was something wrong with you.
German: Will you stop talking about the war!
Basil: Me? You started it!
German: We did not start it.
Basil: Yes you did, you invaded Poland...
The Major: Strange creatures, women. I knew one once... striking-looking girl... tall, you know... father was a banker.
Basil: Really?
The Major: Don't remember the name of the bank.
Basil: Nevermind.
The Major: I must have been rather keen on her because I took her to see... India!
Basil: India?
The Major: At the Oval... fine match, marvellous finish... now, Surrey had to get thirty-three in about half an hour... she went off to powder her... powder her hands or something... women... er... never came back.
Basil: What a shame.
I refuse to print the rest of the conversation as its not PC
This message was last edited by hughjardon on 23/06/2016.
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Done the Spain thing Happier in the UK
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Hugh,
We should vacate this forum together in the style of Thelma and Louise, however I'm not that keen on heights, pain and wearing women's clothes, but apart from that ---------------------
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I'm Spartacus, well why not?
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4 cold meat salads. One pickled herring and a ?
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Best wishes, Brian
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Yes Hep
There are number of very boring serious posters on this forum and there are a few lighthearted life loving individuals like you and I.
I much prefer us to be Butch Cassidy and The Sundance kid than Thelma and Louise as not really my thing as I am not a LADY(little britain connotation).
I will PM my boring list so we can confer LOL.
And why do they keep censoring your posts.
Love Hugh xx
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Done the Spain thing Happier in the UK
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Early to bed tonight, (things to do early doors tommorow), we will know if we are in or out by late breakfast time, the like of this may never happen again, we are part of history, I truly hope that we have got it right, whatever the result may be.
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I'm Spartacus, well why not?
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You should be OK with the weather in the morning Hep. Not sure about the pm.
Pissed down here today. I have a gutter to repair, came loose with weight of water.
Still Friday night promises to be clear. Not had many clear nights recently.
I also truly hope we have got it right.
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Had to look up Thelma and Louise! Not a film buff, but should have heard of it with all the accolades.
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G's a clue to your real name Hugh.
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16 Apr 2016 Anyway, I think by this stage we’re all preaching to the converted, one way or another. I’ll revisit this thread next on Independence Day – Friday 24th.
HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY!
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This is your LEADER speking Radio silence is lifted
As i sit on my decking overlooking the Thames estuary in my little mobile home sipping my Lidl cava it seems a hollow victory I wonder about the future here are my predictions
1.Sein Fein will force a border poll and NI will leave UK control
2.Scotland will join the EU after breaking ties with England
3.England will become the 51st state of the US and renamed USE
4.We will all be driving Cadillacs
5.Spain will take gibraltar
6.Perrypower will be my new neighbour
7.Mobile home and Calor gas sales will soar as many Brits return home
Stay safe
Love Hugh xxx
This message was last edited by hughjardon on 24/06/2016.
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Done the Spain thing Happier in the UK
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I will be going back as a benefit cheat.I will want a house Television and a fag allowance.
Gos save Boris Johnson
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Omarell
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'Should I stay or shall I go?' by The Clash should have been re-released prior to the vote, awful that it is. I never expected a 'leave' vote to be painless, let's let the dust settle and then start to re-build an independent England along with any other member of the Union that wants to join us. Cameron has done the honourable thing (being the one who is responsible for the referendum), however I don't expect the same from Corbyn. We should now let the nastiness be at an end, the lies and fabrications from the Remain supporters has backfired, and anyone within the Leave support who thinks that this is a victory for haters of immigration into the UK is about to get an unpleasant surprise. Let us all now start to get rid of EU idiocy and build a fair and honest UK for all.
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I'm Spartacus, well why not?
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The brexit was never about emigration or being a people hater ,Its was about getting back control of the UK and the right to say enough is enough ,the British people have been complaining about over crowded schools the lack of housing/overloaded NHS/approximately 110,000 people per week coming to the UK with no security checks everyone of them with the right to claim social security /get free treatment on the NHS/get free housing /claim family income support even when the kids are living full time in Poland and the likes.
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Great day for:
Freedom
Democracy
The people (This is the first time the people have beaten the establishment since 1923).
Got up late (up until 4am).
Just watched a bit of telly, I do not like the chasing of the doom stories, and have the following message.
It's over, get used to it.
It's not Jeremy Corbyn's fault. The peoples party should realise it is a victory for the people.
We should all be trying to build a strong democratic and prosperous future.
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Cameron is quitting in October....Whats this then another lie.
Cameron has got everything he deserved, constant lies about what 'Will' happen if we leave, constant lies about what he has told the EU the UK 'Wont comply with' but still did it, and not even good lies at that, had he come up with a half decent vision then I suspect we would still be in and he would have a job.
Someone has knocked over the EU gravy boat which could be the biggest problem.
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Why should it be a lie?
He gave us the choice and made a strong recommendation that was rejected. Therefore he reckons he would be the wrong guy to negotiate the exit from the EU.
Surely he's acting honourably!
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Don't argue with an idiot, he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience.
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Omarrell theres some Romanians who moved out down our street this morning you can have there pad would you like me to make some enquiries
Love Hugh xx
And why are you asking a member of a pop band to save Boris?
This message was last edited by hughjardon on 24/06/2016.
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Done the Spain thing Happier in the UK
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